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  • #113,861
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:26pm Jun 23, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting 5abi
thnx, do you know what swap long and swap short means in this indi?
It was no pdf with the indi explain it but I do believe it shows the swap in orders L or S.

Sorry.
  • #113,862
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:27pm Jun 23, 2009 5:27pm
Quoting Scotty B
No this is a fib-fib fan..It's something that I've been developing for quite some time.
How does it work? I don't mean "How well does it work?" but HOW does it work?
  • #113,863
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:27pm Jun 23, 2009 5:27pm
Quoting Scotty B
4092
do you mind sharing your t/p and s/l as well? thanks in advance!
  • #113,864
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:31pm Jun 23, 2009 5:31pm
Quoting Rednose
It was no pdf with the indi explain it but I do believe it shows the swap in orders L or S.

Sorry.
It should be representing the amount of money the account will be charged/will earn per each lot of open trades long & short, at the end of the session.
  • #113,865
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:32pm Jun 23, 2009 5:32pm
no problem sir, thanks for the indicator.

Quoting Rednose
It was no pdf with the indi explain it but I do believe it shows the swap in orders L or S.

Sorry.
Its all in the mind.
  • #113,866
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:34pm Jun 23, 2009 5:34pm
Quoting traderathome
Some questions for you here.....

How does shorting/selling the Dollar preserve the value of a bond? If anything, while the value of the Dollar is lowered by the shorting/selling, the value of the interest payment to the bond holder is effectively less since the dollar is worth less. Now, when you speak of sellling/buying the Dollar, do you mean the actual Dollar, or are you speaking of the EU currency pair on the Fx market? Please explain your premise, as it is failing to "register" with me. Thank you.
Here's the deal. It's a bit late for me so I'll give you a short answer but if you ask me tomorrow I'll elaborate. Let's start from the figures: today were sold 2 yr bond with 1.15% yield and 69% of the buyers were from outside USA.

Bonds are fixed interest. You only lose money if dollar goes down against your currency and since there are 69% from outside US, if you short the dollar (generally speaking) you protect yourself against this case.

So, this being said, this might be the best deal on the market for bond investors since 1.15% even beats ECB rate. I'm talking big money here.

[EDIT] I know I'm pretty far off here but if I were ECB, I'd buy the 2 yr bonds, short the dollar and earn .15%

Here's my source for the data: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Treasu....html?x=0&.v=8
  • #113,867
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:37pm Jun 23, 2009 5:37pm
Quoting thefisherman
here's the deal. It's a bit late for me so i'll give you a short answer but if you ask me tomorrow i'll elaborate. Let's start from the figures: Today were sold 2 yr bond with 1.15% yield and 69% of the buyers were from outside usa.

Bonds are fixed interest. You only lose money if dollar goes down against your currency and since there are 69% from outside us, if you short the dollar (generally speaking) you protect yourself against this case.

So, this being said, this might be the best deal on the market for bond investors since 1.15% even...
sorry to bother you , but i am realy interested . Do you meen the 69% buyers shorted the dollar before they bought the bonds ? Or do you mean the fed. Reduced the dollar after selling the bonds to reduce the yield value ?

Thanks in advance for the answer.
  • #113,868
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:42pm Jun 23, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting The Egyptian
sorry to bother you , but i am realy interested . Do you meen the 69% buyers shorted the dollar before they bought the bonds ? Or do you mean the fed. Reduced the dollar after selling the bonds to reduce the yield value ?

Thanks in advance for the answer.
Not sure FED can short the dollar on FX directly, and don't see the reason to alter yields as once the bond sold, fed has to pay 1.15% for it in 2 years. Besides, if FED would short the dollar directly they will probably sell no more bonds. Ever.

[EDIT] Not that FED sells the bonds.
  • #113,869
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:42pm Jun 23, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Here's the deal. It's a bit late for me so I'll give you a short answer but if you ask me tomorrow I'll elaborate. Let's start from the figures: today were sold 2 yr bond with 1.15% yield and 69% of the buyers were from outside USA.

Bonds are fixed interest. You only lose money if dollar goes down against your currency and since there are 69% from outside US, if you short the dollar (generally speaking) you protect yourself against this case.

So, this being said, this might be the best deal on the market for bond investors since 1.15% even...
If I understand you correctly, you are saying that bond buyers from outside the US are already expecting the Dollar to go lower, and so they are "protecting" themselves by participating in that drop, i.e., they are shorting the Dollar too. But it seems "expecting" is more risky than "assuring", which all bond buyers could do by BUYING the dollar instead! ?????
  • #113,870
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:43pm Jun 23, 2009 5:43pm
Hello every one,
This is my very first post and i want to thank everyone here for all their contributions. I joined another forum but it is nowhere as good as this one. It was only after I saw a mention about this Forex factory that I googled it and found it. This is a fabulous forum. It is good to be here.
  • #113,871
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:46pm Jun 23, 2009 5:46pm
Yea chris i been browsing forum for a while, some of the signals given here do in fact work amazingly..just follow the discussions
  • #113,872
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:48pm Jun 23, 2009 5:48pm
hi i will just chime in.

you may be stretching this too far as there may be nothing in common in what happened today

fed has been successful in selling these bonds as it has made it pretty clear in intent that it will not be raising the rates (at which it lends money to bank) in near future. that is why people have come out and bought these 2 year Treasury

Now, if I am a forex trader, when I come to hear that US FED is not gonna raise these rates anytime soon I will go and flock to currencies that are higher yielding than the dollar is.

BTW it is funny to think FED shorting the dollar

Quoting TheFisherman
Not sure FED can short the dollar on FX directly, and don't see the reason to alter yields as once the bond sold, fed has to pay 1.15% for it in 2 years. Besides, if FED would short the dollar directly they will probably sell no more bonds. Ever.

[EDIT] Not that FED sells the bonds.
Its all in the mind.
  • #113,873
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:58pm Jun 23, 2009 5:58pm
Today was a negative and overall gloomy day on the analysis of the dollar and of US economy's yearly outlook...which is why it is a perfect opportunity to get long on the dollar and buy 2 year (as in 2 years from now) bonds.
  • #113,874
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:00pm Jun 23, 2009 6:00pm
why would u buy bonds from a country with a gloomy outlook even if it be for a year??

Quoting 2+2=4ex
Today was a negative and overall gloomy day on the analysis of the dollar and of US economy's yearly outlook...which is why it is a perfect opportunity to get long on the dollar and buy 2 year (as in 2 years from now) bonds.
Its all in the mind.
  • #113,875
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:02pm Jun 23, 2009 6:02pm
Quoting 5abi
why would u buy bonds from a country with a gloomy outlook even if it be for a year??
because when you cash in 2 years from now it will have appreciated. Profitting is a simple formula...

EDIT: gloomy outlook gets built into todays prices. Conversely, bright outlook will get built into future price ahead of its time.
  • #113,876
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:03pm Jun 23, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting traderathome
If I understand you correctly, you are saying that bond buyers from outside the US are already expecting the Dollar to go lower, and so they are "protecting" themselves by participating in that drop, i.e., they are shorting the Dollar too. But it seems "expecting" is more risky than "assuring", which all bond buyers could do by BUYING the dollar instead! ?????
Bonds is the final frontier of financial safety. Why bother buying the bonds if the currency of the bond can crash versus your currency? They are not expecting the dollar to drop nor to strengthen. They just don't care whatever happens to the dollar. They are happy to have a 1.15% 2 yr yield issued by USA at this time.
  • #113,877
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:05pm Jun 23, 2009 6:05pm
Profit is good. But why long dollar right now, the environment is very bearish on USD ATM?

Quoting 2+2=4ex
because when you cash in 2 years from now it will have appreciated. Profitting is a simple formula...

EDIT: gloomy outlook gets built into todays prices. Conversely, bright outlook will get built into future price ahead of its time.
Its all in the mind.
  • #113,878
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:09pm Jun 23, 2009 6:09pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Today was a negative and overall gloomy day on the analysis of the dollar and of US economy's yearly outlook...which is why it is a perfect opportunity to get long on the dollar and buy 2 year (as in 2 years from now) bonds.
Do you believe the market movers pumped the EU to further make the Dollar look bad, and were taking the short side of the resultant long orders?
  • #113,879
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:13pm Jun 23, 2009 6:13pm
Quoting 5abi
Profit is good. But why long dollar right now, the environment is very bearish on USD ATM?
Anything can happen anytime. A total loss is a possibility. With that said, I prefer to position myself before the turbulence ends. I must also add that I am fortunate enough to have the leisure of being less conservative.
  • #113,880
  • Jun 23, 2009 6:14pm Jun 23, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Bonds is the final frontier of financial safety. Why bother buying the bonds if the currency of the bond can crash versus your currency? They are not expecting the dollar to drop nor to strengthen. They just don't care whatever happens to the dollar. They are happy to have a 1.15% 2 yr yield issued by USA at this time.
Then there would be no reason for them to short the Dollar as per the original supposition.
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