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  • #113,821
  • Jun 23, 2009 2:56pm Jun 23, 2009 2:56pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
The Bear move is dead, so be careful for the next days.

Like I have wrote we couldn't see my temporal line being broke, she was broken at 1.3891, after that only rise.

My shorts are gone and now I think only to open long trades until I see 1.5300.

My advise now it is long the drops.

bye all and GL
We bounced off the 50SMA on the daily and didn't break the 50% fib of the drop from 1.60. Impossible to make the claim that the bear move is dead, it's still completely within normal range to see bear trend resume.

Give me a sustained break of 1.42 and I'll consider changing my tune...
  • #113,822
  • Jun 23, 2009 2:59pm Jun 23, 2009 2:59pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Hold on, I don't get it... which news are supposed to kick the dollar down? I don't think Iran and oil pipes? (although I agree with you timing on these pipes blow out is rather intriguing)
iran and pipeline cause oil to go up.. up oil= weak dollar... at least in the short run.. it takes more dollars to buy a barrel of oil.. look at oil as a currency... all commodities..less oil if interupted makes price go up
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,823
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:01pm Jun 23, 2009 3:01pm
Quoting Chicky
A calf is not a bull, at least yet.
and what did bemck say.. something to the affect 6 candles cancels the flag.. at that point its just a wedge... something or another..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,824
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:02pm Jun 23, 2009 3:02pm
Quoting VinzZ
What happened to your face!
now thats plain rude..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,825
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:05pm Jun 23, 2009 3:05pm
For those that were asking about the treasury auction I just heard a blip on bloomberg where they said it was "well received"... whatever that means... strange we're not hearing more about it.
  • #113,826
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:05pm Jun 23, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting F.x.
We bounced off the 50SMA on the daily and didn't break the 50% fib of the drop from 1.60. Impossible to make the claim that the bear move is dead, it's still completely within normal range to see bear trend resume.

Give me a sustained break of 1.42 and I'll consider changing my tune...
exactly.... when cosolidating drawn trendlines can be false.. go by the numbers..not the lines
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,827
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:08pm Jun 23, 2009 3:08pm
Nice job and you are correct. To proove this you need only to open up a Daily and pull in some data. However, I can see a retest of that 61.8 Fib level in My post # 113750 which would result in a D/T on the smaller timeframes.

Ne


Quoting F.x.
We bounced off the 50SMA on the daily and didn't break the 50% fib of the drop from 1.60. Impossible to make the claim that the bear move is dead, it's still completely within normal range to see bear trend resume.

Give me a sustained break of 1.42 and I'll consider changing my tune...
  • #113,828
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:10pm Jun 23, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
iran and pipeline cause oil to go up.. up oil= weak dollar... at least in the short run.. it takes more dollars to buy a barrel of oil.. look at oil as a currency... all commodities..
You see normally that would be the case but...

today all correlations went haywire. It's like everybody just had it's own agenda and nothing mattered anymore. Fiber was on full steam up and DOW futures still dropping, alas at a slower pace. OIL stopped dead for hours and hours before deciding which way to go. It was like: "Huh? Dollar down? Huh? So...wait...so...that means I should probably go up...Hmmm...Thinking....still thinking....Still thinking...Ah, yes! Probably I should go up"

No...I did not perceive at all that OIL moved dollar today. Nobody moved anything actually. Very, very weird day. BUT it's not something unseen. I'm gonna have my butt kicked around the forum probably but as in March E/U will eventually come back sooner or later to the correlation. I'm saying E/U because out of the three it's been known to have errands of it's own. One of it was the march fool's week (sorry Fool).

Anyway, that's my point and I'm sticking to it for the moment. Only one thing bothers me: BoredToLoose. He's rarely wrong .

Other than that, I have the itchy feeling about shorting OIL . I'll give it a try to push for $70 tomorrow though.
  • #113,829
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:22pm Jun 23, 2009 3:22pm
Quoting TheFisherman
You see normally that would be the case but...

today all correlations went haywire. It's like everybody just had it's own agenda and nothing mattered anymore. Fiber was on full steam up and DOW futures still dropping, alas at a slower pace. OIL stopped dead for hours and hours before deciding which way to go. It was like: "Huh? Dollar down? Huh? So...wait...so...that means I should probably go up...Hmmm...Thinking....still thinking....Still thinking...Ah, yes! Probably I should go up"

No...I did not perceive at all that OIL moved dollar...
yes..what i call. "elvis is leaving the building theory".... oil tanks are full.. coralations are trying to change.. euro will end up on its own if it happens.. there are signs like you stated it might..gu and eu dont closely follow each other as they once did either..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,830
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:26pm Jun 23, 2009 3:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
and what did bemck say.. something to the affect 6 candles cancels the flag.. at that point its just a wedge... something or another..
IMHO it should not go up without touching 1.4050. It usually never does. Someone as well has to eat sls in those closing hours or soon after that. I am heavily short upto 1.4058.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #113,831
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:28pm Jun 23, 2009 3:28pm
Update: Why I am waiting before TP. The first break out of the strong upward channel did not test the lower channel as anticipated. Maybe this time it will. I see the market is not going to break down lower than the touch of the lower channel in this TF.
On a larger TF, we are in a range with the low and the middle of the range hit today.
Currently very low volatility, this could change rather quickly.
Attached Image
  • #113,832
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:34pm Jun 23, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting F.x.
We bounced off the 50SMA on the daily and didn't break the 50% fib of the drop from 1.60. Impossible to make the claim that the bear move is dead, it's still completely within normal range to see bear trend resume.

Give me a sustained break of 1.42 and I'll consider changing my tune...
let's see!!
  • #113,833
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:39pm Jun 23, 2009 3:39pm
gu/eu on one s/p eu on other,, no more negative mirror image
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #113,834
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:45pm Jun 23, 2009 3:45pm
I live in the wrong time zone!!!!

I missed a large part of last nights (NZ time) move....hope you all caught the lions share. I still got 141 pips, which is great and I have no complaints.

Must have been an exciting day for you all
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #113,835
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:50pm Jun 23, 2009 3:50pm
Quoting BoredToLoose
This Year I do not see this going below 1.2700! let's see!!
Hey BTL - I'm not sure what you're trying to say here... how is this related to your post saying the bear trend is over?

I wouldn't disagree w/ you about 1.27, I would never make a claim that it would be broken this year. That would just be a wild guess to make.
  • #113,836
  • Jun 23, 2009 4:01pm Jun 23, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
gu/eu on one s/p eu on other,, no more negative mirror image
Very Nice comparison.
  • #113,837
  • Jun 23, 2009 4:02pm Jun 23, 2009 4:02pm
Quoting djambazov84
hi there patience,
yes I believe you are technically correct, good job on the correct identification of the trendline. See so many people just curve-fit their trendlines so that their perceived analysis looks correct when in fact it is not the case at all.
Hey again - I've just seen Belekas' post on Igrok's thread. I should have looked there first
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #113,838
  • Jun 23, 2009 4:05pm Jun 23, 2009 4:05pm
crap crappidy crap! i'd bet one of my small toes that the same artholes buying the treasury bonds are also shorting the dollar to preserve the value, and when the time comes, badabim-badaboom they sell before expiry with a quite nice profit. [EDIT] Well obviously they will buy the dollar before at higher levels. I'll be goddam, the hole treasury frenzy might be just as well as a safe way to speculate on shorting the dollar. Buy a safety net first. Anybody with me on this one?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aLLr3ZGRJYTU

[EDIT] I'm revising my short targets.
  • #113,839
  • Jun 23, 2009 4:15pm Jun 23, 2009 4:15pm
Question for the group.....does anyone have an indicator that shows the money earned/paid on open position(s) at the end of the session? Also, is there a place in MT4 where this is shown?
  • #113,840
  • Jun 23, 2009 4:18pm Jun 23, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting realjumper
I live in the wrong time zone!!!!

I missed a large part of last nights (NZ time) move....hope you all caught the lions share. I still got 141 pips, which is great and I have no complaints.

Must have been an exciting day for you all
Consider yourself fortunate you're in your time zone today. First half of the day went very well, second half extended trend day move caught many unaware, myself included to some extent.
I'm in a short looking for another 40 pips drop, depending on PA. Currently price holding just above a median line in 60 min. When it breaks we're looking at a 40 pip drop.
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