Powerful Fib Based System - by DAZfx | Page 81 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Spud's MTF FIB Breakout System 383 replies

Fib/trendlinebreak entry exit system 4 replies

LFB System - London Fib Breakout 45 replies

Target Yearly 30-40% - Fib-Ox System Journal! 17 replies

Resurrected Powerful Dazfx AMG wave 20 replies

Attachments: Powerful Fib Based System - by DAZfx
Exit Attachments

Powerful Fib Based System - by DAZfx

  • #1,601
  • Edited 2:07pm Jun 22, 2009 1:54pm | Edited 2:07pm
Quoting hcristea
Looking for a long setup GBPJPY, timeframe: H4.

On the daily TF, GBPJPY, still looks bullish. what do you think?
Well, let me make the counterargument

As you can see on weekly, there is a hanging man at the end of an uptrend, and the price is going down from there. E.g. sign of consolidation and potential major correction on weekly graph. I would rather avoid trading with bulls with such setup.

On a daily graph you can see unfinished and imperfect falling three methods (ok, they are just two, but anyway), a high reliability continuation pattern. So it's down on daily two, at least if this pattern will hold, as it is not finished yet.

And finally, if you look at your graph, you will see big head and shoulders, also signaling down.

So the entry is valid, speaking technically, but against the trend, e.g. it's low propability trade.

I would skip it and do the same in opposite direction.

EDIT: another way to look at that daily pattern is bearish engulfing (in making), e.g. down.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyweekly.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydaily.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,602
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:23pm Jun 22, 2009 2:23pm
Pipsy, i'm gonna wait and see how the H4 chart develops. The weekly TF look bullish to me and we are still at the beginning of the week so that last candle has 4 days left until its complete.

If what looks like the correction on my previous chart, turns impulsive, i might look for short setups. Who knows, maybe stoch will make a nice hook up

What about gbpusd? do you have any feedback on geppy?
  • #1,603
  • Jun 22, 2009 2:37pm Jun 22, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting Pipsy108
Well, let me make the counterargument

The weekly chart doesnt show a hanging man. Agree that if the daily candle closes as a bearish engulfing, its a bad idea to stay long... moreover, if markets close as bearish as they are right now...
  • #1,604
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:03pm Jun 22, 2009 3:03pm
Well, it always looks like a trend at the beginning of correction, right

There is major correction going on on S&P, which means dolar strenght and weekness for EUR and GBP. As investors are selling stocks, they are buying dollar (and carry traders JPY).

Here is a bigger picture:

Pic 1: SPX - correcting

Pic 2: USD index against other majors - this range is going on for a month and now it seems USD is breaking up (Pic 3, at least I hope, it has been pretty boring).

Pic 4: index of other majors against JPY - negatively correlating with S&P because of carry traders, JPY is going up.

Pic 5: GBP index, possibly starting correction, even though it still looks like an uptrend.

With JPY going up and GBP ranging or going down, direction of GBPJPY is pretty clear. With big correction on S&P I bet there is going to be correction on most majors, maybe not a big one, but for next week or two I would not go with previous trend. Too risky. It's possible to trade within the range, but you have to follow the candles and daily pattern on GBPJPY seems to be pretty bearish. Sure, the weekly pattern may turn into something else later this week, but I would not bet a lot on an uptrend. It will be correction down or more ranging. Tough times ahead.

Situation on GBPUSD is exactly the same.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: spx.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfx.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfxh4.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: lfxjpy.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbplfx.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,605
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:14pm Jun 22, 2009 3:14pm
Pipsy,
Thanks for taking the time for such a thorough reply.
  • #1,606
  • Jun 22, 2009 3:17pm Jun 22, 2009 3:17pm
hcristea, on the other hand, don't let my analysis mess up with your head. If you think you are right, go ahead. My trading improved significantly after I stopped reading analyses by other people, and especially after I stopped reading news with their "dollar lost xxx cents against euro because of [insert random reason here]".

I stopped with fundamental analysis after reading Nassim Taleb's book The Black Swan, which is about randomness. He mentions some research done by two researchers, who examined 27,000 predictions made by 300 "experts" in socioeconomical matters. They have found, that these experts can not predict anything better then average cab driver. Go figure

I only follow opinions of few professional traders, one of them being Hussin Naiji, who runs his own thread here at FF:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69786

The opinion about correction and downtrend is his and I agree based on my own candlestics analysis. As they say in his thread, never trade against Hussin I understand the fallacy of argument by authority, but I have never seen him getting this wrong.
  • #1,607
  • Jun 22, 2009 4:27pm Jun 22, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting hutchy
Hi Naija,

Pls can you explain how to use these indicators.

Cheers,


Darryl

Just add the indicator(s) , modify the period as required, choose if you want to see both normal and hidden divergence. |Then take the alerts with a 'pinch of salt'. That is, there is nothing that can 100% predict the future the best a good indicator or chart pattern can do is to give a higher probability of a move in one direction rather than the other.
If you are interested in divergence indicators, here are some that I have adapted (to remove delays and fix the problem of constant alerts when both normal and hidden divergence are triggered at the same time).

They are all originally based upon FX5's MACD divergence indicator, with modifications by SMJones (originally posted on the JAKONE thread).

They are not perfect since they miss divergences and alert for some very marginal divergences. I partucularly like the fact that they alert, because I don't want to spend all my time watching my charts.

Ian
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 CCI_Divergence_V1.1.mq4   13 KB | 499 downloads
File Type: mq4 MACD_Divergence_V1.0.mq4   13 KB | 502 downloads
File Type: ex4 OSMA_Divergence_V2_2.ex4   11 KB | 514 downloads
File Type: ex4 RSI_Divergence_v2.ex4   12 KB | 552 downloads
File Type: mq4 Stochastic_Divergence.mq4   13 KB | 517 downloads
  • #1,608
  • Jun 22, 2009 7:42pm Jun 22, 2009 7:42pm
  •  Nimrod
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Energy and persistence conquer all | 168 Posts
Quoting Pipsy108
hcristea, on the other hand, don't let my analysis mess up with your head. If you think you are right, go ahead. My trading improved significantly after I stopped reading analyses by other people, and especially after I stopped reading news with their "dollar lost xxx cents against euro because of [insert random reason here]".

I stopped with fundamental analysis after reading Nassim Taleb's book The Black Swan, which is about randomness. He mentions some research done by two researchers, who examined 27,000 predictions made by 300 "experts"...
Well said Pipsy.I too have had it with fundamentals.You know, that the big boys are not making their judgment in the spur of the moment, instead they weight in their decision long before as they are in for the long term hold.

Decisions should be made base on what we see and with correct analysis and money management, and I agree with Mike that the charts will give a more sincere picture than fundamentals.

Glad more guys are contributing.
Sure love to hear from the seniors(Mike, Soyabean et al)
  • #1,609
  • Jun 22, 2009 11:00pm Jun 22, 2009 11:00pm
Quoting Pipsy108
hcristea, on the other hand, don't let my analysis mess up with your head.
Pipsy, its alright. I listen to every input. Thank you.
Now the GBPJPY doesnt look as bullish as before The H&S is much clear.
  • #1,610
  • Jun 23, 2009 2:56am Jun 23, 2009 2:56am
I am already in this one based on PA after the bounce of the trendline, but now it seems to be heading for another bounce. If it happens, is may also be valid Daz setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #1,611
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:03am Jun 23, 2009 3:03am
Here is another possible setup on EURGBP. But beware of S/R at 8.600, there is a strong chance price will bounce off it instead of 78.6 fib level (red diagonal trendline is another high propability possibility).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #1,612
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:08am Jun 23, 2009 3:08am
GBPJPY is creating lower low and we will have full ABCD wawe and established downtrend. The price then may go for a bounce off the trendline, creating another lower high a giving another daz setup.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #1,613
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:10am Jun 23, 2009 3:10am
I'm watching euro also. On H1 there is also 200 SMA in the vecinity of that resistence (maked as interupted white line on your chart)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_h4.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_h1.png Size: 16 KB
  • #1,614
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:13am Jun 23, 2009 3:13am
Situation on AUDUSD is similar to that on GBPJPY. Beware of the lower trendline if you short it, but AUD is in correction going down, so we can expect it to be broken.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audlfx.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,615
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:21am Jun 23, 2009 3:21am
That's it for today. There are few other interesting non-daz setups around, but that's another story. If you are into stocks, look at daily candlesticks pattern on MSFT. I am sure every Apple user is going to enjoy shorting it (as will I).

USDCAD may give bounce up off the resistance and trendline around 1.1475.

Cheers.
  • #1,616
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:34am Jun 23, 2009 3:34am
Quoting hcristea
I'm watching euro also. On H1 there is also 200 SMA in the vecinity of that resistence (maked as interupted white line on your chart)
Actually it's my sell orders, not s/r. Sorry for confusion. Looks like Metatrader can not hide them so I could not have made the graph more clear.
  • #1,617
  • Jun 23, 2009 3:54am Jun 23, 2009 3:54am
Quoting Nimrod
Well said Pipsy.I too have had it with fundamentals.You know, that the big boys are not making their judgment in the spur of the moment, instead they weight in their decision long before as they are in for the long term hold.
Yeah, it was my impression that by reading "opinions" of people like central bankers or big investors you are exposing yourself to their manipulations. Taleb is former floor trader, who got into trading because he wanted to get enough money so he can be a filosopher He too completely ignores fundaments. Given the random nature of the markets, he recommends exposing yourself to situations with limited risk and potentialy unlimited gains. Commons sense, except most banks still can't get it right and do it other way ...
  • #1,618
  • Jun 23, 2009 4:35am Jun 23, 2009 4:35am
Quoting Pipsy108
Yeah, it was my impression that by reading "opinions" of people like central bankers or big investors you are exposing yourself to their manipulations. Taleb is former floor trader, who got into trading because he wanted to get enough money so he can be a filosopher He too completely ignores fundaments. Given the random nature of the markets, he recommends exposing yourself to situations with limited risk and potentialy unlimited gains. Commons sense, except most banks still can't get it right and do it other way ...
Dont you think you need so much in you account before you can really feel the manipultion??????????
  • #1,619
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:11am Jun 23, 2009 5:11am
Quoting biodunforex
Dont you think you need so much in you account before you can really feel the manipultion??????????
Not sure I follow. If I get confused because I include some cooked up "expert opinion" into my fundamental analysis, it's going to lower my win:loss ratio no matter what my account size is. Or do you think that extra 2% loss counts only if it's greater then X thousand dollars or something like that? Not to me. These issues are orthogonal.
  • #1,620
  • Jun 23, 2009 5:24am Jun 23, 2009 5:24am
this thread is on fire!
0 traders viewing now