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Powerful Fib Based System - by DAZfx

  • #1,581
  • Jun 22, 2009 5:47am Jun 22, 2009 5:47am
Quoting bobowang
i am taking this setup (eurchf 4h now), is this ok? any comments? and is there any chatting room for this strategy?
This is a countertrend trade (not that there is any trend worth mentioning on EURCHF, but the bias is slightly down intraday), which is against the rules of this system - it's basically trend following system. But you may get lucky as there is a chance it will hit FE 50 target before turning down.

Also, stoch has not crossed yet, which makes the setup invalid ...

You may rather put the fib retracement the other way and get more chance for success.

But please note that I am learning this system too, so I may be completely wrong.
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  • #1,582
  • Jun 22, 2009 5:52am Jun 22, 2009 5:52am
Better picture.
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  • #1,583
  • Edited 6:47am Jun 22, 2009 6:15am | Edited 6:47am
  •  Nimrod
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Energy and persistence conquer all | 168 Posts
Quoting Pipsy108
Better picture.
Its a good trap set up Pipsy.Now we just wait for fib retracement and confirmation candles.Then we figure out our potential RISK.

lets analyse the chart.PA has not made a LL or has not break the lowest point to make a new low.Until a new low is made, we could see a healthy down trend otherwise we could see consolidation.

Price also might move or bounce on the pink line where support becomes resistance.I would stay out of this and see what price will do.
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  • #1,584
  • Jun 22, 2009 6:23am Jun 22, 2009 6:23am
thanks alot, pipsy and nimrod,
let's see the result, if you are right, definitely it will not hit FE 50 in my chart......
  • #1,585
  • Jun 22, 2009 6:36am Jun 22, 2009 6:36am
im already in since this 4h candle. for me its a valid pattern. for this good r:r its a must trade i think.

look at D1 there is no trend, it consolidates and retraces from lower trend line.

we could loss this, but then with a clear conscience
  • #1,586
  • Jun 22, 2009 6:36am Jun 22, 2009 6:36am
Here is another setup on USDJPY 4H. The pray is already in trap at 78.6 fib and diagonal trendline, and if it forms tweezer bottom with bullish candle or bullish engulfing, it will most likely cause the stoch cross and hook.
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  • #1,587
  • Jun 22, 2009 6:57am Jun 22, 2009 6:57am
  •  Nimrod
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Energy and persistence conquer all | 168 Posts
This thread is getting alive and kicking.Good job guys.we learn from each other.Hope more contribution from our fellow traders who are reading this thread from the sideline.everyone is welcome.
FANTASTIC
  • #1,588
  • Jun 22, 2009 7:36am Jun 22, 2009 7:36am
I just want to know what's the success:fail rate for each trade on average...1:1 or much better? thanks a lot.
  • #1,589
  • Jun 22, 2009 7:45am Jun 22, 2009 7:45am
Quoting bobowang
I just want to know what's the success:fail rate for each trade on average...1:1 or much better? thanks a lot.
There are some numbers somewhere in the first pages of this thread. If I remember correctly, Daz, originator of this system, was talking about 75% winners vs. 25% loosers (his own results). Which is very good.

If you are interested in this method, you should go through the whole thread. The method itself is really easy, figuring the trend direction is the hard part, but you will get some hints. There are several ways to aproach this problem.

Ultimately you have to find out for yourself, because results of other people may not apply to you. No two people are going to trade same setup same way (or even see the same setup, as you just witnessed), which is one may be winner and the second one looser.

Anyway, good luck.
  • #1,590
  • Jun 22, 2009 7:52am Jun 22, 2009 7:52am
What does it mean stoch hooking? Stoch crossing is pretty clear but what is stoch hooking up/down?
  • #1,591
  • Jun 22, 2009 7:57am Jun 22, 2009 7:57am
Quoting Pipsy108
There are some numbers somewhere in the first pages of this thread. If I remember correctly, Daz, originator of this system, was talking about 75% winners vs. 25% loosers (his own results). Which is very good.

Anyway, good luck.
ah, it's terrible great! I will go through all the posts here...
  • #1,592
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:00am Jun 22, 2009 8:00am
Quoting hcristea
What does it mean stoch hooking? Stoch crossing is pretty clear but what is stoch hooking up/down?
Well it means it will look about like this This one is down.
Attached Image
  • #1,593
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:11am Jun 22, 2009 8:11am
Quoting Pipsy108
Well it means it will look about like this This one is down.
Thank you for clarifying
Its seems to me that most of the time the stock makes a hook in 2-3 candles after the confirmation candle, so my question is do you wait the stock to hook is the candle after the confirmation look good but the stock only crossed?
  • #1,594
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:33am Jun 22, 2009 8:33am
  •  Nimrod
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Energy and persistence conquer all | 168 Posts
Quoting Pipsy108
Well it means it will look about like this This one is down.
LOL...... nice pic.Got to love that hook.Looks sharp.I bet it hook a lot of pips.LOL

Candle stick formation is PA( Price Action) and the stoch is for reference.Stoch is a lagging indicator.It tells the momentum of the movement but it does not tells us truely the direction is going to be.Price movement dictates the stoch.
  • #1,595
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:45am Jun 22, 2009 8:45am
Quoting hcristea
Thank you for clarifying
Its seems to me that most of the time the stock makes a hook in 2-3 candles after the confirmation candle, so my question is do you wait the stock to hook is the candle after the confirmation look good but the stock only crossed?
Stoch set to 8,3,3 is quite fast, so if the confirmation candle is convincing enough, from what I have seen so far (I trade this only one week, still testing, so ...) it will hook on next candle after the confirmation candle more often then not - at least that's my limited impression. Propably somebody more experienced will step in here.

But it's fine to enter even if it hooks later, as long as your projected RRR is sound and price action is in your direction. RRR is likely to be sound if you are entering near SMA5. That means that if the price have moved to far from it and did not retraced a bit to give you better entry, you simply ignore the setup and move on.

The picture illustrates perfect entry: first it creates inverted hammer right above 78.6, first sign of reversal. Then it tests 78.6 and creates bullish candle. It also tests long term diagonal trendline and rejects it. Stoch crosses at the same time. It's pretty clear what's going on here, especially retrospectively
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  • #1,596
  • Jun 22, 2009 8:48am Jun 22, 2009 8:48am
Quoting Nimrod
Candle stick formation is PA( Price Action) and the stoch is for reference.Stoch is a lagging indicator.It tells the momentum of the movement but it does not tells us truely the direction is going to be.Price movement dictates the stoch.
Right. I am happy to ignore stoch if I see high reliability candle reversal formation, but not the other way. I would not act on stoch alone, if the price action is not right.
  • #1,597
  • Jun 22, 2009 10:14am Jun 22, 2009 10:14am
  •  Nimrod
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: Energy and persistence conquer all | 168 Posts
Quoting Pipsy108
Right. I am happy to ignore stoch if I see high reliability candle reversal formation, but not the other way. I would not act on stoch alone, if the price action is not right.
"shiver me timber....mateey" Love the pic of the pirate , Pipsy.I m totaly with you on PA/CF.
I was refering the CF and the stoch hook to hcristea.Every bit of learning counts.
Keep up the good work.Happy piping.
  • #1,598
  • Edited 1:18pm Jun 22, 2009 1:17pm | Edited 1:18pm
Looking for a long setup GBPJPY, timeframe: H4.

On the daily TF, GBPJPY, still looks bullish. what do you think?
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  • #1,599
  • Jun 22, 2009 1:30pm Jun 22, 2009 1:30pm
Quoting hcristea
Looking for a long setup GBPJPY, timeframe: H4.

On the daily TF, GBPJPY, still looks bullish. what do you think?

Yes, i think it meet all criteria except that in an hourly chart i can see only 3 waves up, and i prefer 5... but i will be closely looking at this chart as a valid setup.

Good job hcristea!!
  • #1,600
  • Jun 22, 2009 1:51pm Jun 22, 2009 1:51pm
Ncristea,
Your gj setup looks good to me, especially when I look at the massive uptrend on the daily chart. I'm more inclined to trade the GU. Any comments?
The candle before the one that's forming is a really nice bullish sign, I believe.
Michael
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