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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #261
  • Apr 17, 2007 7:05am Apr 17, 2007 7:05am
Quoting Igrok
Cable has just reached my "must reach" target at slightly above 2.0000. Guess it might make sense to consider shorting it on the next attempt above the figure to target 1.93 zone initially. It also might be the turning point for USD vs. other europeans.
Hi Igrok, why 1.93 zone and what do you mean by "turning point"?
Unless you enter the tiger's den you cannot take the cubs.
  • #262
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:42am Apr 18, 2007 3:42am
Igrok, GBP is up exactly 250 pips from the level (1.9870) you had indicated. It's very difficult to decide to short here with such a parabolic move up. This is beginning to look like EUR/JPY journey! Any thoughts?
Thanks...
  • #263
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:25am Apr 18, 2007 8:25am
Quoting okfx
Igrok, GBP is up exactly 250 pips from the level (1.9870) you had indicated. It's very difficult to decide to short here with such a parabolic move up. This is beginning to look like EUR/JPY journey! Any thoughts?
Thanks...
I shorted it today at 2.0124 with a limit order and have already pocketed about a hundred pips. Today's high was exactly at the upper border of a rising channel on daily. It might make a third touch of the lower border first, but obviously the daily range has already been formed by now.
My concern for the moment is USDX. It seems that it still has some potential for a dive on another 100 pips from yesterday's closing. If it goes there then it might bring the EUR/USD to about 1.3750-80. I would certainly short it from there.
  • #264
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:27am Apr 18, 2007 8:27am
Quoting Operator
Hi Igrok, why 1.93 zone and what do you mean by "turning point"?
The formation seems like a broadening triangle to me. By projecting it to turn into a diamond we should probably target 1.93 zone.
  • #265
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:54am Apr 18, 2007 8:54am
BTW my biggest disapointment of the week was EUR/JPY related. It has been the most obvious trade recently. It turned around and went down after bouncing off of the upper border of a beautiful channel on daily that came exactly at 162.42 the day before yesterday. I placed a limit there ahead of time to sell it but because I drew the line not accuratey enough I missed this short position by just a few pips. My desire for making perfect trades sometimes makes me feel frustrated.
  • #266
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:41pm Apr 18, 2007 1:41pm
Quoting Igrok
The formation seems like a broadening triangle to me. By projecting it to turn into a diamond we should probably target 1.93 zone.
Igrok,
You have repeatedly suggested not to unticipate things, but rather to wait for patterns to emerge. When you project a broadening triangle to turn into a diamond (which is still beyond my imagination...), does it have any practical implications for you, or it is just a possibility you are aware of, but don't base any decisions on?
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #267
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:51pm Apr 18, 2007 1:51pm
Quoting Igrok
[GBPUSD] might make a third touch of the lower border first
How do you count the touches? I can see three already (March 14, April 9, April 10).

BTW, today's touch of the channel border at 2.0130 was so exact, so beautiful... This sort of things makes me think God moves the market...
sans peur et sans reproche
  • #268
  • Edited 6:37pm Apr 18, 2007 6:22pm | Edited 6:37pm
Quoting ilanr
How do you count the touches? I can see three already (March 14, April 9, April 10).

BTW, today's touch of the channel border at 2.0130 was so exact, so beautiful... This sort of things makes me think God moves the market...
April 9-10 must be considered as one touch. When there is a channell, the market bounces between the borders in sequence touching both lines in turn.
  • #269
  • Edited 8:28pm Apr 18, 2007 6:27pm | Edited 8:28pm
Quoting ilanr
Igrok,
You have repeatedly suggested not to unticipate things, but rather to wait for patterns to emerge. When you project a broadening triangle to turn into a diamond (which is still beyond my imagination...), does it have any practical implications for you, or it is just a possibility you are aware of, but don't base any decisions on?
When there is a broadening triangle seen on the chart there are just two possibilities for the market exist. The pattern either gets broken into continuation of the trend or turns into a diamond. By anticipating a diamond you can take your chance by opening a position with relatively tight stops but with clear targets and great R/R ratio. There are several templates showing how to trade inside those patterns.
  • #270
  • Apr 18, 2007 11:07pm Apr 18, 2007 11:07pm
Quoting Igrok
BTW my biggest disapointment of the week was EUR/JPY related. It has been the most obvious trade recently. It turned around and went down after bouncing off of the upper border of a beautiful channel on daily that came exactly at 162.42 the day before yesterday. I placed a limit there ahead of time to sell it but because I drew the line not accuratey enough I missed this short position by just a few pips. My desire for making perfect trades sometimes makes me feel frustrated.
Hi Igrok, according to you the eur/yen has changed its main direction from down to up after breaking through the previous highs on the weekly chart. Shouldnt we be lookin for long opportunities instead of shorting it.
  • #271
  • Apr 19, 2007 1:29am Apr 19, 2007 1:29am
Quoting jotty
Hi Igrok, according to you the eur/yen has changed its main direction from down to up after breaking through the previous highs on the weekly chart. Shouldnt we be lookin for long opportunities instead of shorting it.
Most current top at 162.42 is a very important level that exactly matches another major top made in 1998. The move from 150.80 to 162.40 could very well be the major diagonal of a reversal diamond in progress. It is possible that we will never see EUR/JPY trading higher in our lifetime.
  • #272
  • Apr 19, 2007 5:37pm Apr 19, 2007 5:37pm
I guess, there is no chance for the EUR/USD to hod the resistance at 1.3670.
  • #273
  • Apr 25, 2007 3:40am Apr 25, 2007 3:40am
Hi Igrok,
I have been reading your book, it is very interesting and certainly out of the ordinary.
I have not yet tried out any of the templates,but I have 2 questions:
1. For templates where you do not say which timeframe chart to use (such as 19.1) should I use a 1 min, 5 min chart or what?

2. In many places you talk about the direction of the intermediate trend, but I can't see where you say what timeframe the intermediate trend would be seen on.
I know that this will vary dependent upon which timeframe the trading chart is. But how much bigger should it be?

For example would an intermediate trend for the 4hr chart be direction over the last 24hrs, or over the last week ?

Would the intermediate for a daily chart be the direction over the last week or the last month?

Thanks,
Ian
  • #274
  • Apr 25, 2007 5:24am Apr 25, 2007 5:24am
The crosses GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY do look longer-term toppish here at current levels. I doubt we will see the new high of the year on GBP/JPY and the move on EUR/JPY from 150.75 to the current levels seems like a major diagonal of a broadening triangle which is about to be fully completed. It might make sense to consider taking longer-term shorts at around 162.20 but I have no idea where the actual top will be and where to place stops for such a trade.
  • #275
  • Edited 6:52am Apr 25, 2007 5:28am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Igrok,
I have been reading your book, it is very interesting and certainly out of the ordinary.
I have not yet tried out any of the templates,but I have 2 questions:
1. For templates where you do not say which timeframe chart to use (such as 19.1) should I use a 1 min, 5 min chart or what?

2. In many places you talk about the direction of the intermediate trend, but I can't see where you say what timeframe the intermediate trend would be seen on.
I know that this will vary dependent upon which timeframe the trading chart is. But how much bigger should it be?

For example would an intermediate trend for the 4hr chart be direction over the last 24hrs, or over the last week ?

Would the intermediate for a daily chart be the direction over the last week or the last month?

Thanks,
Ian
1. 5min - 60 min chart would be OK because the stops must be close enough if to take a trade on this template. Usually this pattern is seen at the first glance and is easy to identify if you scan it on the charts starting from 5 min and up to 60 min.

2. When I'm talking about short-term trends I usually mean the direction of the main move of the day or the direction of the main move of the week.
  • #276
  • Edited 7:47pm Apr 25, 2007 7:45pm | Edited 7:47pm
Hello Igrok, I've been looking at monthly and weekly charts for various pairs and its amazing what a difference that makes, especially when you see the price patterns historically. I noticed that top at 1998 in the eur/jpy as well and I figured thats why you were saying that might be the top, but I'm comforted in knowing that even you didn't have a concrete idea of where to place exact stops on that pair even though you see a top happening, cuz thats where my dilemma was as well. Anyhow, jus utilizing this method, I just raked in about 75 pips on the cad, seeing as gas prices are headed higher and the cad pair is on a strong move downward. I just wanted to know your opinion on the pair, do you see it breaking its historic lows of the 1.09 barrier, or do we consider looking at a long on the pair approaching that price level?
  • #277
  • Apr 26, 2007 3:51am Apr 26, 2007 3:51am
Quoting megamo
Hello Igrok, I've been looking at monthly and weekly charts for various pairs and its amazing what a difference that makes, especially when you see the price patterns historically. I noticed that top at 1998 in the eur/jpy as well and I figured thats why you were saying that might be the top, but I'm comforted in knowing that even you didn't have a concrete idea of where to place exact stops on that pair even though you see a top happening, cuz thats where my dilemma was as well. Anyhow, jus utilizing this method, I just raked in about 75 pips on the cad, seeing as gas prices are headed higher and the cad pair is on a strong move downward. I just wanted to know your opinion on the pair, do you see it breaking its historic lows of the 1.09 barrier, or do we consider looking at a long on the pair approaching that price level?
The high of 1998 on the EUR/JPY is one important thing and the channel it has fully formed on daily by now is another. It also had to cover a gap at around 162.20 and therefore I knew that it's not going to turn around before filling it up. It looks toppish to me at these levels but a precise level for placing reasonable stops hasn't been formed yet.
About CAD I don't have an opinion. I rarely trade this pair and haven't been following it for a while.
  • #278
  • Apr 27, 2007 11:48am Apr 27, 2007 11:48am
It was quite entertining to observe swissy recently. The low at 1.1995 it has made this week came exactly at the trendline drawn throught the lows made on 12.30.2004 and 12.05.2006. This is a very technical bottom as that trendline is the last major rising support that can be drawn on the charts.
  • #279
  • Apr 28, 2007 1:04am Apr 28, 2007 1:04am
Looking at the Euroyen and poundyen.. looks likely they will break the major resistance and probably go higher.. 174.25 and 249.27 respectively.
Unless you enter the tiger's den you cannot take the cubs.
  • #280
  • May 2, 2007 1:02pm May 2, 2007 1:02pm
Quoting Operator
Looking at the Euroyen and poundyen.. looks likely they will break the major resistance and probably go higher.. 174.25 and 249.27 respectively.
I doubt it. On EUR/JPY 38.2% major Fibo level (from the ultimate top formed at 1979 to the historical bottom of 2000) comes at around 163.90. The longer-term top is likely to be near this level.
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