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  • #112,821
  • Jun 20, 2009 10:26am Jun 20, 2009 10:26am
Quoting Liger86
Usually I'm not in the mood to post all this, makes my brain hurt from all the photoshopin' and editing.

Is this helping anyone? I'll keep it coming if it does... Maybe even start a new thread...
Good job.
  • #112,822
  • Jun 20, 2009 10:33am Jun 20, 2009 10:33am
Quoting gatorinla
you cant see the forrest cause all the damn tress are in your way...the bigger picture.. your playing against the house.. oil is a pimple on the ass of currency. (at least for now).. the elphant is following the the the mouse.. depending on what figures you got, u.s. spends anywhere from 1$ to 700 billion $ a year on foreign oil..if you want to manipulate currency shut a few valves/ crash planes ect.. if you live in a sand castle its an easy way to make a few billion/trilliian.. hire a few pirates/ or simply allow bin laden to flourish.. pay his...
Don't overthink ,
you will never see oil at 13 in your lifetime anymore, it has to correct some of the price on the next leg up, to make a long story short if it has been once at 147 it will go there again, this is what happens in bull markets and oil is in a such.
  • #112,823
  • Jun 20, 2009 10:40am Jun 20, 2009 10:40am
Quoting arthurb
Don't overthink ,
you will never see oil at 13 in your lifetime anymore, it has to correct some of the price on the next leg up, to make a long story short if it has been once at 147 it will go there again, this is what happens in bull markets and oil is in a such.

oil can only go up i guess.. unless obama finds some new super good and cheap green energy


thats y although my oil stocks are tanking, i am forcing myself not to hit sell
  • #112,824
  • Jun 20, 2009 11:02am Jun 20, 2009 11:02am
Quoting trading801
oil can only go up i guess.. unless obama finds some new super good and cheap green energy


thats y although my oil stocks are tanking, i am forcing myself not to hit sell
You don't have to force yourself not to sell, you could be scalping for small profits, you'd help everyone by adding liquidity, we could have really used some this week!
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #112,825
  • Jun 20, 2009 11:48am Jun 20, 2009 11:48am
Quoting Liger86
You don't have to force yourself not to sell, you could be scalping for small profits, you'd help everyone by adding liquidity, we could have really used some this week!

?

i am talking about oil stocks not eur/usd
  • #112,826
  • Jun 20, 2009 12:20pm Jun 20, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting trading801
?

i am talking about oil stocks not eur/usd
Silly me
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #112,827
  • Jun 20, 2009 12:21pm Jun 20, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting gatorinla

follow the money...
Well, gator, as usual you make some good points. I am still as confused as ever, though. No matter, I will continue to nibble on the E/U while I cogitate.

I am expecting some good up and down for the E/U this coming week; I will be doing the old "in and out" on the old up and down.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #112,828
  • Jun 20, 2009 12:31pm Jun 20, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting arthurb
Don't overthink ,
you will never see oil at 13 in your lifetime anymore, it has to correct some of the price on the next leg up, to make a long story short if it has been once at 147 it will go there again, this is what happens in bull markets and oil is in a such.
I don't trade oil futures but I have been thinking about doing so. The next good-sized dip down, I believe, could be an excellent place to start...long, of course.

As far as commodity & stock index correlations with the E/U go, I am not leaning on those as much as I thought I could back in kindergarten. As Atlast notes, they vary over time.

Everything changes. I am forever just a flea on Big Dog E/U's back & even if he lopes through the gates of Hell I will probably still have a full belly.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #112,829
  • Jun 20, 2009 2:18pm Jun 20, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting trading801
one simple way to look at oil increasing in $ is simply the weakening of USD..

since investors are more "confident" now, they use USD to invest overseas etc.. hence buying other currencies .. this pushes USD down... and since oil is priced in USD, oil becomes more "expensive "
If you can't back this thesis with something more concrete I'd consider it at best childish. US$ is down cause Obama and Bernake want it down. Heck, not WANT - they need it down cause if you didn't find out till now, USA has a debt of about 80% of GDP which is anything but good money management. (Imagine you have to pay banks with 80% of your income - dunno in USA but in Europe a generally agreed figure would be around 40% tops).

... AND it's pay time. Get it?
  • #112,830
  • Jun 20, 2009 2:21pm Jun 20, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
The factors in the article are why I remain cautiously short.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31446671

Side note: Oil under $70, makes me feel warm and fuzzy. Let's keep the downward momentum going!!
What, what? CNBC posted THAT article 23 hours ago?? I feel more and more confident about my short in OIL by the hour.
  • #112,831
  • Jun 20, 2009 2:27pm Jun 20, 2009 2:27pm
Quoting arthurb
Don't overthink ,
you will never see oil at 13 in your lifetime anymore, it has to correct some of the price on the next leg up, to make a long story short if it has been once at 147 it will go there again, this is what happens in bull markets and oil is in a such.
When I started working in the oil industry the barrel was around 70$ and the petrolists were amazed how much money they made. Heck housing industry was not the drive of the economy. Petroleum industry was. To extract oil and not care about how much you spend costs about 40$ a barrel. The rest is pure profit. I imagine that at 147$/brl petrolists were as close to orgasm as one can get. That's when I quit the job. 6 months later it all came down to a crash and most of the people got fired. I took those 6 months to prepare a survival plan. When I left I was the idiot (was making tons of money every month). Now, who's the idiot?

[EDIT] To extract OIL and care how much you spend costs about 30$ a barrel. US$ value has no great impact on OIL costs since they are all priced in US$ (maybe excepting Europe but what does Europe produce anyway?)
  • #112,832
  • Jun 20, 2009 3:16pm Jun 20, 2009 3:16pm
Consider this...

At 100:1 leverage you can double your account in 150pips.

Personally - in my 1 year of live trading done it only once.
On that day I ran out and bought me a Venti sized starbucks.

But consider the fact that you could be wrong...

Using account of about $1200, this is what it looks like should it go the wrong way...

When looking at the chart just think to yourself how it would make you feel if it went up to those red numbers.

So to all you who bet at such leverage, and I know there are some out there... You better be right or that donkey is gonna not only do you but your family also!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_012.png Size: 39 KB
ok Friendo? This is madness!?!? - THIS, IS, FOREX!!!
  • #112,833
  • Jun 20, 2009 3:39pm Jun 20, 2009 3:39pm
Another one good for ya':

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31450810

"Stocks finished a volatile session mixed as traders jockeyed for positions on this quadruple-witching Friday and techs rallied. Today is the once-a-quarter event known as "quadruple witching," which is the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock futures, and stock options. It happens on the third Friday of the third month of every quarter. Read and listen to what experts had to say...

S&P to Decline Toward 850

The volume is bearish for the S&P 500 index, according to Bill McLaren, independent trader, adding that volumes in August generally drop. "It looks to me like there's just a lack of interest at this price level," he said. He sees the index declining to 850."
  • #112,834
  • Jun 20, 2009 3:52pm Jun 20, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Another one good for ya':
Well, if its on TV, it must be true. Why would the man on TV lie?

Hey, Fisherman, ain't they anything fun to do on a Saturday night for a young dude?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #112,835
  • Jun 20, 2009 4:17pm Jun 20, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting The Fool
Well, if its on TV, it must be true. Why would the man on TV lie?

Hey, Fisherman, ain't they anything fun to do on a Saturday night for a young dude?
He, he! This is fun man! Having some beer, watching Stargate, going through the news, forums, Iran stuff.

Yeah, the man on TV
  • #112,836
  • Jun 20, 2009 9:48pm Jun 20, 2009 9:48pm
Quoting TheFisherman
If you can't back this thesis with something more concrete I'd consider it at best childish. US$ is down cause Obama and Bernake want it down. Heck, not WANT - they need it down cause if you didn't find out till now, USA has a debt of about 80% of GDP which is anything but good money management. (Imagine you have to pay banks with 80% of your income - dunno in USA but in Europe a generally agreed figure would be around 40% tops).

... AND it's pay time. Get it?

hey bro just a perhaps kinda of idea.. dont call me childish ya
  • #112,837
  • Jun 20, 2009 11:04pm Jun 20, 2009 11:04pm
Quoting trading801
hey bro just a perhaps kinda of idea.. dont call me childish ya
May be he called you that you don't know that the world is still controll by by all muscle power & weapons only & what obama & Bernake wants must happen not that only the oil raised but also every thing one may need at every need at every corner of the world and even all others currencies enjoyed extremely throught out the time ( not to be blaming them ) by this US crisis of mainly luxurious houses not any basic need of mankind.
The skape goat is only The fool OIL.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #112,838
  • Jun 21, 2009 2:57am Jun 21, 2009 2:57am
hey sup everyone..
i'm newbie here..
eur/usd will going bearish or bullish , anyway?
i see the crude oil getting higher and higher.
any expectation?
  • #112,839
  • Jun 21, 2009 3:23am Jun 21, 2009 3:23am
Quoting Liger86
Consider this...

At 100:1 leverage you can double your account in 150pips.

Personally - in my 1 year of live trading done it only once.
On that day I ran out and bought me a Venti sized starbucks.

But consider the fact that you could be wrong...

Using account of about $1200, this is what it looks like should it go the wrong way...

When looking at the chart just think to yourself how it would make you feel if it went up to those red numbers.

So to all you who bet at such leverage, and I know there are some out there... You...

yeah that stress is worth...if it can double ur account...
  • #112,840
  • Jun 21, 2009 4:42am Jun 21, 2009 4:42am
From the semi-fundamental point of view i think E/U is bullish. If you look at what had happened two weeks ago just after NFP you would notice that at first we had a small bull run then E/U crashed. Technicaly we closed this week almost at the same level we closed NFP week. Many people looked at this crash as traders pricing in fed funds rate increase as early as this year. This week's FED statement is widly believed to include fed statements to stop speculation about rate increase/s this year. Then there are large treasury auctions of medium maturity, also believed to go without problems. Since we closed this week almost the same level as two weeks ago i think its indicative of the market waiting for these two events to continue dollar bear. Any thoughts?
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