EURUSD

These are important trendlines for next week.

Note how 5min hit daily resistance trendline, really cool

Current short term resistance combined with midterm support trend lines could all end around 1.3600 with new direction emerging from there on...

But until then, it is my firm belief that 1.3600 will be overshot to at least 1.3400

When the move down - if - happens it will be quick and short. Many will miss it, try to reenter only to get stopped out because it was too oversold and needs to wait a while before resuming down trend .

1. Lets say you trade trendlines and need to get a good
exit target, how do you pick one?

2. Once price has bounced and its clear, which is in around this area.

3. Draw your first trendline connecting the two bottoms.

4. Then draw second line that is parallel to the original.

5. Place the second parallel on top of previous high.

6. When the top resistance line has been hit
your target is reached.

1. Break of this trendline invalidates its support parallel.

2. New bottom is formed, new trend line is drawn...

3. Wait for top to form so you can draw a new resistance parallel.

4. After bottoming target new parallel resistance.


5. The part that can trick you - and this is all phyco - is
where price dips and closes below parallel support line.

FOCUS: Failed breaks attempts result in violent moves!!!

Trendlines

Usually I'm not in the mood to post all this, makes my brain hurt from all the photoshopin' and editing.

Is this helping anyone? I'll keep it coming if it does... Maybe even start a new thread...

Last weeks high @ 1.4028 (BEARISH) - I'm willing to continue to enter short positions up to this level. Break of this level will be watched for on daily chart - so H1 and H4 breaks don't count to me for next week above this lvl - only daily break will count as valid.

March 18 Peak @ 1.3737 (BULLISH) - This level is just "in the way" and will be retaliated against swiftly and without mercy. Will cover small partials at this level.

38.2% Retrace @ 1.3782 (1.2884-1.4338 BULLISH) - This is another level that's "in the way"

61.8% Retrace @ 1.3439 (1.2884-1.4338 BULLISH) - This will be my final target in my book, if there is a chance that it will reverse it will be there most likely.

I don't have a plan should it not continue to go down - I just simply wont trade it in that case.

Tada!!!

I don't monitor this thread all the time, too many posts, anyone has a question that they don't want me to miss - pm me or email.

Of course it does!! keep up!!

According to my speculation 1.3439 would have to be met by thursday next week.

Which means that it would have to fall on average of 0.0169/day to reach that target on time to meet high support, if it gets there later there won't be that kind of support and it could get very unstable just like it is right now.

So far this weeks range was 0.0281, and week before this one was 0.0340

So to my argument chances of hitting that target on time at current rate is slim. Because to reach that target next week in time for major confluence of support it would have to generate a range of 0.0507, but the range is getting slimmer.

1. Lets say you bought @ support
parallel, worst case entry - say around 1.4180.
how do you handle that situation.

2. Worst possible case would be your
stop @ 1.4075

3. Moderate case is you manualy trailed
your stop and got stopped @ 1.4154

4. Best case would be if you would
have exited half position @
daily R1 and moved stop on
the rest to break even.

I traded this day in real time
and yes R1 on that day did get
hit.

1. You just missed this move, now what?

2. You could have bought here and lets face it
from what it looks like you probably got stopped.

3. I was personally confused as to where
to draw support parallel for this new
down trend resistance parallel that
I just drew on these tops.

4. You could have bought here,
again, scared as hell that you
might get stopped again.

5. This time target you have been
hit.

Then things get tricky.

Apparently trendlines drawn on h4 are not the same as 1day, at least not on these free charts @ dailyfx.com

Remember the most recent resistance parallel that i drew that connected friday knee jerk top with a higher top few days earlier? Well if that trend line is drawn on daily it looks different.

Check it out...

Thanks for your analyses. Anything can happen in forex but I do not think it drop to 1.34 area in few months (exaggerated), it is all in up mode whatever slow it be and lowest level it can retrace already done 1.3748 , can be to as low as 1.3721 though again if continue fail up.
Thanks ,
fontu

This is really good stuff! and explained really well... Keep it coming please.

Thanks
Iz

Yep, usefull stuff. Thanks Liger86.

Wonderful work, I enjoyed reading and compared my own charts.

The factors in the article are why I remain cautiously short.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31446671

Side note: Oil under $70, makes me feel warm and fuzzy. Let's keep the downward momentum going!!

you cant see the forrest cause all the damn tress are in your way...the bigger picture.. your playing against the house.. oil is a pimple on the ass of currency. (at least for now).. the elphant is following the the the mouse.. depending on what figures you got, u.s. spends anywhere from 1$ to 700 billion $ a year on foreign oil..if you want to manipulate currency shut a few valves/ crash planes ect.. if you live in a sand castle its an easy way to make a few billion/trilliian.. hire a few pirates/ or simply allow bin laden to flourish.. pay his cell phone bill ect. and when the shit hits the fan, be short the market. follow the money..anyway ill rant later.

in fall 2000 eu was about .8200. last summer 1.600. if you recall we had an election going on over summer.. things were neck and neck...then things changed, first with oil and so on..so we ended up with a demo pres .. so just look at your charts.. what happend during different adminisrations in the past? most moves have a pullback.. so are we in a pull back or trend..u.s. does not want 100 pbo. ez does not want 1.6 eu...the mid point between 1.6 and last falls low has been rejected so far. the midway point between .8200 and 1.6 is about 1.2.......we are on the lower side now..with a demo pres..who doesnt like oil.. who needs to sell houses. no clear answer.. except this, we need to sell houses for the whole economy to work.. without it banks go down, unemployment goes up..what happens to oil then? i think even the saudis could live with a lower oil price if the dollar was stronger compared to other countries once the the inflated currencies like the euro equalise.. they dont have a choice..china has already won the war since they will be still holding dollars along with the rising sun..the losser will be the guy who bought house at the top, then cycles starts over if we dont stop it.. good luck with that.. or you could just flip a coin... im short with eyes wide open...im betting on the u.s. with storage full if we have a bubble 1.2 is not out the question..then some..



in 2001 oil was about 13 average (i think) $ a barrel.. hell just pull up a chart go back to oct/nove 2000.. i wonder what was happening then... anyway we hired 2 oil guys and oil went up.. and as you can see by eu chart dollar went down (oct 2000 till present)..just stating a fact...when money leaves your pocket and less comes back you simply have less money.. this time its the u.s. pocket.. when stock market goes to 13000 on bs (inflated) dollars you have less money.. when it crashes to 6500 you have less money.. when oil goes from 13 bucks to 147 you have less money..the people controlling where you dollar went have more money.. just that simple..no matter what anyone tells you its not patriotic to give what those so many have bleed for away. beware of people wrapped in flags..one of my best freinds could talk the panties off a nun.. but i would still not trust him with my best goat..

follow the money...

one simple way to look at oil increasing in $ is simply the weakening of USD..

since investors are more "confident" now, they use USD to invest overseas etc.. hence buying other currencies .. this pushes USD down... and since oil is priced in USD, oil becomes more "expensive "

Me too.
V. useful link you posted in your previous post, and of course there are some very good explanations, provided by the responders to the article, to refute the author's conclusions.
The thing to remember though is the correlation between oil and the strength of the Euro against the dollar has only been high in recent year; the correlation is not as strong historically being 20% on weekly change basis for 5 years (2008).
As someone put it:
"recent correlation is “a fluke,” while the added volatility in currency markets may be exacerbating movements in crude oil, investors in the two markets aren’t necessarily keying off each other. He says worries about U.S. economic growth remain the paramount concern in the currency markets for those selling dollars"
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008...-relationship/

Still, while recent correlations are high, it is worth following developments, especially for longer term traders.