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  • #112,261
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:44pm Jun 18, 2009 7:44pm
Nikkei up 100+, Oil creaping up, Dow & S&P Futures up--- likley to see some EJ buying which would pressure E/U up.
  • #112,262
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:45pm Jun 18, 2009 7:45pm
it can go either way now... gonna wait to see how it breaks..
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  • #112,263
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:50pm Jun 18, 2009 7:50pm
USD/CHF is the best bet for long now.. long @ 1.084 TP 1.092
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  • #112,264
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:54pm Jun 18, 2009 7:54pm
Quoting traderathome
No, you are not. Just watch for their moves and jump on their coattails. It is trying to out think them and second guessing them that causes all the losses. What it comes down to is.....price will move when and as much as they want it to, and in the direction they want it to. And they cannot disquise the fact of its movement when it happens.
It's all good. I am just a flea on Big Dog's back, I just want a few teenyweeny bites.

Howsomever, if large price movements are in effect the result of the designs of the market manipulators, it kinda throws into question the whole "Technical Analysis" thing - don't it? Take the 100-pip drop that happened today - who relly saw that comin, as a result of their "analysis"?

Yep, I am better of just nibblin....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #112,265
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:54pm Jun 18, 2009 7:54pm
I'm following your quality posts since a while, congrats.

I think your effort and knowledge deserve a vouch.

Quoting candlesticks
EUR-USD range was limited for Thursday. The market made several attempts to move above Wednesday's High 1.3984 only to be pushed down. On the DAILY chart we have a 'red' candle. While we stay below the down trend-line on the daily chart there is greater probability that we should move down. Key level to test for a move down would be Thursday's low 1.3871. IF we can break below this we could find ourselves moving down and filling the self fulfilling prophecy of many traders that a "Head & Shoulders" pattern is indeed in place.

FOR FRIDAY:...
  • #112,266
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:56pm Jun 18, 2009 7:56pm
For the most part, over the last 2 weeks, E/U price action has been as follows:

E/U downs have been fast and hard
E/U ups have been slow and steady (with one exception)

Hard moves happen out of 1. Fear/Greed 2. Profit taking

Usually, in the slow times, there has been steady upward pressure.
What does this mean? I'm not sure, but I was fully convinced we would see 1.35xx this month. This slow upward pressure is making me rethink that position. I would be glad to hear any thoughts you guys have on the subject.
Happy trading!
  • #112,267
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:11pm Jun 18, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting The Fool
It's all good. I am just a flea on Big Dog's back, I just want a few teenyweeny bites.

Howsomever, if large price movements are in effect the result of the designs of the market manipulators, it kinda throws into question the whole "Technical Analysis" thing - don't it? Take the 100-pip drop that happened today - who relly saw that comin, as a result of their "analysis"?

Yep, I am better of just nibblin....
*L*
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,268
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:17pm Jun 18, 2009 8:17pm
Quoting The Fool
It's all good. I am just a flea on Big Dog's back, I just want a few teenyweeny bites.

Howsomever, if large price movements are in effect the result of the designs of the market manipulators, it kinda throws into question the whole "Technical Analysis" thing - don't it? Take the 100-pip drop that happened today - who relly saw that comin, as a result of their "analysis"?

Yep, I am better of just nibblin....
I saw that drop and take 50 pips
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
  • #112,269
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:25pm Jun 18, 2009 8:25pm
Quoting FX-Petra
For the most part, over the last 2 weeks, E/U price action has been as follows:

E/U downs have been fast and hard
E/U ups have been slow and steady (with one exception)

Hard moves happen out of 1. Fear/Greed 2. Profit taking

Usually, in the slow times, there has been steady upward pressure.
What does this mean? I'm not sure, but I was fully convinced we would see 1.35xx this month. This slow upward pressure is making me rethink that position. I would be glad to hear any thoughts you guys have on the subject.
Happy trading!
Great observations...didnt even think about the speed of the markets until just now. I will say this though...

The correlation between the currency markets and the equities markets has been real strong for the last few months...(commodities...who knows anymore). The US stock market especially has been lifted up by financials from the start by two simple things.

One is...either Bernanke or Geithner or OBama or some other "relevant" individual gets up every morning and makes a TV appearance and no matter what they say..always boosts financials up and the rest of the markets even more. Of course there is the aritifical "positive" data which is announced once in a while but in reality plays no relevance at this time since the profits were only achieved with bailout money (artificial results achieved by Tarp especially).

Then there is the second thing...this collosal debt the US holds has left the government no option but to do the one thing they can....sell bonds. We have seen bond auctions every week ever since we were at 1.29 (coincides with feds buying treasuries announcement). I wonder when this will end..if ever.

Tommorow is triple or quadruple witching day. Since the correlation between equities and the currency markets has been so strong....it is very important what happens as the US equities market comes to a close tommorow..and more importantly the few days that follow next week. Why?...because there has been alot of speculation about the bull run being "too much too fast" (which I happen to agree with) which in theory should lead to at least a pullback in the equities markets...maybe in the 7000-7500 area for the dow...S&P 500 maybe down to 675 or something. It is very possible this bear rally may start soon..especially after this profit taking friday and as we all know...equities go down....dollar gets stronger.

Sidenote:something is cooking...while the correlation between equities and currencies has been strong...this whole week there has been few correlations between the two.

Just my 2 cents
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #112,270
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:31pm Jun 18, 2009 8:31pm
Quoting The Fool
It's all good. I am just a flea on Big Dog's back, I just want a few teenyweeny bites.

Howsomever, if large price movements are in effect the result of the designs of the market manipulators, it kinda throws into question the whole "Technical Analysis" thing - don't it? Take the 100-pip drop that happened today - who relly saw that comin, as a result of their "analysis"?

Yep, I am better of just nibblin....
#111997
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,271
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:34pm Jun 18, 2009 8:34pm
Quoting psiholog

Sidenote:something is cooking...while the correlation between equities and currencies has been strong...this whole week there has been few correlations between the two.

Just my 2 cents
So....how can we have a stronger dollar and record levels of public debt? And the flood of stimulus money into the economy, much of that still waiting to happen? What are the possibilities and the implications of that?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #112,272
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:55pm Jun 18, 2009 8:55pm
Quoting The Fool
So....how can we have a stronger dollar and record levels of public debt? And the flood of stimulus money into the economy, much of that still waiting to happen? What are the possibilities and the implications of that?

If I knew the answers to these excellent questions I'd be the CEO of some big bank haha. Still...even they probably dont know whats going to happen and when. The only thing I can comment on as I did in my previous post is when changes are likely to happen or better said..reversals (after all they are my specialty).

I do strongly believe the markets are ripe for a wake up call and getting back to reality...things are not much better then 2008 was yet...banks won't be able to bs their way up for much longer and a return to safety may be in play (aka the dollar). The trigger for all this?...the triple/quadruple witching day tommorow as well as the Obama plan for more financials regulation (aka not being able to bs their way up anymore)..especially if it passes.

Still..these are the ramblings of a 23 year old dude who is doing what everyone else is trying to do...connect the dots and see the big picture. That is hard task for anyone to do these days so yea...sticking to strategy is crucial
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #112,273
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:55pm Jun 18, 2009 8:55pm
Sitting under daily pivot, prior HS neckline and a 38.2 .. hourly looks to be closing bearish as well.
  • #112,274
  • Jun 18, 2009 8:58pm Jun 18, 2009 8:58pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Sitting under daily pivot, prior HS neckline and a 38.2 .. hourly looks to be closing bearish as well.
chart.
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  • #112,275
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:08pm Jun 18, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting The Fool
So....how can we have a stronger dollar and record levels of public debt? And the flood of stimulus money into the economy, much of that still waiting to happen? What are the possibilities and the implications of that?
You ain't doin bad atall for a whippersnapper.

I need to bone up on the fundie end of things. But, then again, if the news announcements are engineered cover, disinformation fed to us by the price manipulating cabals, as some allege here on FF....does it really matter?

Yep, I'm probably just better off nibblin....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #112,276
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:09pm Jun 18, 2009 9:09pm
sorry...meant the last for psiholog...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #112,277
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:13pm Jun 18, 2009 9:13pm
Can anyone tell me the symbols for E/U options ? Read of large put activity today, which really doesn't forecast price direction, but I'd still like to look.
  • #112,278
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:20pm Jun 18, 2009 9:20pm
Quoting The Fool
So....how can we have a stronger dollar and record levels of public debt? And the flood of stimulus money into the economy, much of that still waiting to happen? What are the possibilities and the implications of that?
very few dollars are in the economy thus far from stimulus. some tarp money is comming back and was never used it just sat in a just incase account.. but never got in the economy..money never lost it just changes hands. most of the money who left u.s. went to china via cheap crap/ and sandland via oil ect....when you got money leaving the country and less comming back. eventually money gets tight.. that what happens when you give the country away and hide behind the free economy patriotic flag myth..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,279
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:24pm Jun 18, 2009 9:24pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Sitting under daily pivot, prior HS neckline and a 38.2 .. hourly looks to be closing bearish as well.
Short from 3920.
  • #112,280
  • Jun 18, 2009 9:26pm Jun 18, 2009 9:26pm
Quoting The Fool
You ain't doin bad atall for a whippersnapper.

I need to bone up on the fundie end of things. But, then again, if the news announcements are engineered cover, disinformation fed to us by the price manipulating cabals, as some allege here on FF....does it really matter?

Yep, I'm probably just better off nibblin....
depends who you ask. Someone trading long term using fundies will tell you yes...such individuals have 10years +in the markets usually and are often called hedge fund managers.

If your asking me...I will say yet again yes it does matter. Not what is said and done but the reaction to the news intraday as well as longer term. A good example is the 30year bond auction last week, the most crucial bond auction of all...in theory that data could have been a repeat of "feds buying treasuries" day that caused 500+pips up. Yet it did not...in fact pa went lower compared to the time of news release the next day. Considering this was a bond auction...that is massive news for the health of the dollar which is better then most thought.

If you ask someone who trades technicals only...depends how long they have been in the market. Someone "new" would say...I pay attention to my indicators..I see a signal...I enter. You ask a scalper....his most likely reply would be..."what is fundies?". But those who haven been in the game a long time even if they trade technicals only...they would most likely say "times of news releases are important as they create alot of volatility or massive moves up or down but to understand why they are important you must understand the news themselves".

Thats all you will get out of this "whippersnapper" Mr. Fool
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
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