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EURUSD

  • #112,181
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:57pm Jun 18, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting The Fool
I defy those designations. I place trades. Usually in bunches 2-5 entries in range. Often, I wil take profit on one or more within minutes. If I perceive that a trade has been well-placed, that the price looks to continue in its favor, I will let it run, perhaps for hours.

A more direct answer, though, is: I know when I like to trade (FO/LO) and I like to be flat outside of that period.

I'm aware that the way I trade goes against some of the good advice that has been promulgated by experienced traders here on FF. If I stop making money I might...
It sounds like you and I trade frequently in a similar manner. I make multiple entries (two, three, maybe four) and most frequently because I find it impossible to peg the "best" entry for most trades. So, as the PA subsequently moves, I re-evaluate for any additional entry. I trade very small sizes for size account, so if my group of entries later turns to be misplaced, I can either exit or sit and wait for the PA to next return to my area. The arrogance within us says we should be able to peg the best entries and exits, but it is a lie, expecially in a manipulated marketplace. I too, frequently take off some of these parts for a bit of profit, and add new parts as the PA moves. For me, trying to make a single entry, even near the best price, and hold for best exit, just does not work. My method is more compliant with a manipulated market, and it does work.
  • #112,182
  • Edited 2:59pm Jun 18, 2009 2:58pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting vinesh2
I am not outflankin anyone. Reason I ask is all the advice given here could be confusing for new traders who might take position based solely on some one elses analysis including mine. Some say they are scalpers but then suddenly when price goes the other direction they either stop posting or changed their minds and get trapped in positions thinking they are now swing traders and will wait for price to come back to their original entry. All I am saying that we are all here to learn but it would be nice that we give new traders consistent message...
Bro, with a thread such as EU, how can there be consistent messages other than general trading advice. I would hope new traders pick up the essence by following how different traders think, analyse, execute and manage trades. It isn't one size fits all. I learn a few things here myself, seeing how others do their work. Sometimes the real traders have opposing positions, but that's mainly down to TF, and sometimes the market pattern dictates 2 strong opinions. I think that's why there are system threads if new traders just want consistent messages.
  • #112,183
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:58pm Jun 18, 2009 2:58pm
Its possible that the euro dived b/c of this

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aVKhaqVyngQU
  • #112,184
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:04pm Jun 18, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting vinesh2
Its possible that the euro dived b/c of this

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aVKhaqVyngQU
1.40 is a pretty significant level .. so it may have helped in the fall .. gbp fell too .. basically USD got strong

I think sentiment is shifting back in favor of the USD for now.

Also, wrt to the TL on the bear flag, draw on closes on a 1-hr, the last 1-hr candle did not close below it. Maybe a bounce and then break. Who knows.

I dont trade it but thought id post some analysis anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h1eu.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #112,185
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:05pm Jun 18, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Notch, Atlast or Vinesh2,

Thoughts on this:

It appears this 4hr candle is Bearish...but it lands perfectly at the bottom of 4hr TF channel that is in an UPTREND.......so a break would take out the LONG or Notch prediction of 4175..correct?

I got caught like the FOOL in a LONG at 3970 and was looking for 4015 area.....now I am wondering if I should take another LONG here at 3875/80?
Prevent that by taking a long at support and short at resistance.
  • #112,186
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:07pm Jun 18, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting traderathome
Regarding momentum, as well as all other indicators.....just keep in mind that ALL indicators are based upon PAST PA. Not one of them, no matter what it "is saying to you", can preclude a sudden 100 pip move in the opposite direction. The FX market is manipulated, and the two 100+ pip moves yesterday afternoon and this afternoon should be enough warning of that fact to anyone, and that indicators, not one of them, are high quality predictors.
Thanks Traderathome, that is interesting. Do you know what the reason is for the manipulation? (Sorry for the Basic question)

Thanks
Iz
  • #112,187
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:09pm Jun 18, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting imohammed
Hi FX,

I Have updated my options on here, so should have PM now.

Thanks
Iz
OK, I'm heading out now but will PM you later.
  • #112,188
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:09pm Jun 18, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting vinesh2
Its possible that the euro dived b/c of this

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aVKhaqVyngQU
The term "libor speculation" says it all. But which came first, the hen or the eqq? Did libor speculation move the market, or did people who wanted to move the market, arrange for the appropriate "libor speculation" ....?
  • #112,189
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:10pm Jun 18, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting IMARICH1
Notch, Atlast or Vinesh2,

Thoughts on this:

It appears this 4hr candle is Bearish...but it lands perfectly at the bottom of 4hr TF channel that is in an UPTREND.......so a break would take out the LONG or Notch prediction of 4175..correct?

I got caught like the FOOL in a LONG at 3970 and was looking for 4015 area.....now I am wondering if I should take another LONG here at 3875/80?
The 4hr is bearish and has actually broken a trendline, but not yet closed below. It has also not yet reached a channel that I usually draw with pitchfork. The support is where I indicated before. Below that and in my view we are going down. If you are nursing a loss, check the percentage hit that your account will take if it doesnt hold support. If it is too great then at every retrace up, sell some to lighten your loss. Better to lose 70pips than 140 pips. It is better to take a loss that allows you to still have funds to recover from, than holding in hope. Avoid averaging down. I am not taking any longs until I see how price act at the pivot or when it gets to support.
I will post a 4 hr chart soon.
  • #112,190
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:11pm Jun 18, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting imohammed
Thanks Traderathome, that is interesting. Do you know what the reason is for the manipulation? (Sorry for the Basic question)

Thanks
Iz
Yes.......PROFITS!
  • #112,191
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:12pm Jun 18, 2009 3:12pm
Looks like Eur/USD could have the momentum to break the 4 hour support level at 1.3878, bears on the ready?

Any thoughts?
  • #112,192
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:13pm Jun 18, 2009 3:13pm
ok thanks....unfortunately I can't Short the Eu as that would be like Hedging and I have only one account....thanks for the advice...I will prob close my position if it breaks the 3870 area.....

Would be nice if Notch was right on this one and it would swing back up!
  • #112,193
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:19pm Jun 18, 2009 3:19pm
“We spent all morning trying to break $1.40 and got rejected again,” said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com - these guys are also retail brokers. I don't get it. When he says "tring to break" he means forex.com or the market? Cause if it's those guys I am really afraid for their retail client's money.
  • #112,194
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:19pm Jun 18, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting Atlast
The 4hr is bearish and has actually broken a trendline, but not yet closed below. It has also not yet reached a channel that I usually draw with pitchfork. The support is where I indicated before. Below that and in my view we are going down. If you are nursing a loss, check the percentage hit that your account will take if it doesnt hold support. If it is too great then at every retrace up, sell some to lighten your loss. Better to lose 70pips than 140 pips. It is better to take a loss that allows you to still have funds to recover from, than holding...
That is good advice Atlast. Maybe the Japs will give us a little risk-aversion boost...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #112,195
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:21pm Jun 18, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting Pipsaway
Looks like Eur/USD could have the momentum to break the 4 hour support level at 1.3878, bears on the ready?

Any thoughts?
Yes. I am thinking the session is effectively over, as PA has been flat since the drop. The asian session may provide some movement, if for no other reason than the "professsional traders" there are arrogant and so may want to fabricate their own "drop", by pumping and then dumping, or dumping and pumping. To me, it seems most likely the next Frankfurt/euro session will need to be in full swing before anything dramatic happens. And, what with Triple Witching Friday for the stock market, maybe nothing dramatic will happen until the euro/US session is in full swing. The reason for yesterday afternoon's 100 pip run, and this afternoon's 100 pip run may have been to allow the manipulators to grab their weeks profit allotments early, knowing that Friday may turn out to be a "non-event".
  • #112,196
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:21pm Jun 18, 2009 3:21pm
IMARICH1 1st of all on what basis did you take the long? Seondly, how come you did't have any SL's? Are you even looking at longer time frames? 1.400 area is critical resistance level so unless you have a daily candle close above its pointless to go long. I have been telling you guys over and over again look at longer time frames that will give you the overall trend! stay with the trend stay with trend!!!!!
  • #112,197
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:22pm Jun 18, 2009 3:22pm
Quoting traderathome
It sounds like you and I trade frequently in a similar manner..... My method is more compliant with a manipulated market, and it does work.
Well, when I know as much as you about what really moves the market then I will be better off.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #112,198
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:27pm Jun 18, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting TheFisherman
“We spent all morning trying to break $1.40 and got rejected again,” said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com - these guys are also retail brokers. I don't get it. When he says "tring to break" he means forex.com or the market? Cause if it's those guys I am really afraid for their retail client's money.
Yes it is truth.... I know this broker.. and analyst to this companies
PLANE YOUR TRADE - TRADE YOUR PLAN
  • #112,199
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:32pm Jun 18, 2009 3:32pm
Quoting The Fool
Well, when I know as much as you about what really moves the market then I will be better off.
I know little about "what really moves the market." In simpliest of terms, the ability to make profits is what moves the market, imho. There are "trading operations" with enough money to move the price to where ever they want to, when they decide to. So, if they take long positions over time, they will be sure eventually the price makes a big drop.....PROFITS. If they take short positions over time, they will be sure eventually the price makes a big run up.....PROFITS. Will they "time" when they impart momentum to get the price moving as they require, with planted or not planted news, releases, libor speculations, blah, blah, blah, etc.? Maybe, but they don't HAVE to, as they can make the price move all on their own. It just costs them less if they can fool the public into picking up the momentum and carrying it for them. It is all about profits, and not about any real relative value of the involved currencies, not in the short haul...on a quarterly or yearly basis, yes, they have to keep some semblance of reality in their price moves. But otherwise, NO.....it is PROFITS that matter most! - Just my opinion.
  • #112,200
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:32pm Jun 18, 2009 3:32pm
vinesh2,

Thanks for the advice....I looked at the TREND being UP with the 4hr chart as it was in a channel...I meant to put in a STOP loss and guess I messed it up when I went in and changed my LIMIT on TP....was my fault.....

I think right now the the 4hr chart was my TF....

I respect your opinion....
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