Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 793 | Forex Factory

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Why did you start trading and what do you expect from it? 19 replies

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #15,841
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:18pm Jun 17, 2009 3:18pm
Quoting Shilva
anybody who doesn't know about the "short rows" ..............

they are out there in the cornfield, where the woods get heavy!



Last 2 nights Asia has traded it down nicely......think they might keep it up?
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #15,842
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:23pm Jun 17, 2009 3:23pm
Quoting cisco
Considering the current daily candle I'm inclined to lean short. But not until swaps are done.

Hey guys,

Excuse my ignorance. I've worked in the FX market for quite a while as a dealer and now a trader... and i cant see why you would wait until 'after swaps are done' for a directional play in the spot market. A swap is simply simultaneously buying a currency on one date and selling on another... depending on the position that is being rolled over. There is no directional influence on the spot price - simply a forward point (interest rates) implication in the forwards market.

Again, please excuse my ignorance if im wrong here... but i see this term bandied about quiet a bit - and i dont get how you guys tink it would move the spot market, except for maybe causing a little spread fluctuation/minor vol.

Cheers,
MM
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #15,843
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:38pm Jun 17, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting Ari Gold
Hey guys,

Excuse my ignorance. I've worked in the FX market for quite a while as a dealer and now a trader... and i cant see why you would wait until 'after swaps are done' for a directional play in the spot market. A swap is simply simultaneously buying a currency on one date and selling on another... depending on the position that is being rolled over. There is no directional influence on the spot price - simply a forward point (interest rates) implication in the forwards market.

Again, please excuse my ignorance if im wrong here... but i...
No worries, and it's not an ignorant question. I'm sure your aware that Wednesdays are Triple Interest days. No, this does not affect the price in which we hold a currency through swap, but it does affect whether we are going to be paying triple interest or getting paid triple interest. I've been trading over 5 years and I still don't know which position pays vs. which position is an expense. If I have a position and it's a worthwile position, I'll hold it through. For example, right now I still have a short position from 6477, I will hold this position through swap. Whether I pay or get paid, makes no difference to me. I've booked profit on the position, the position is covered green. I think alot of what you hear/read is from individuals not wanting to pay swap or get paid so they exit all positions and wait for a new position when it's presented.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #15,844
  • Jun 17, 2009 3:41pm Jun 17, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting Ari Gold
Hey guys,

Excuse my ignorance. I've worked in the FX market for quite a while as a dealer and now a trader... and i cant see why you would wait until 'after swaps are done' for a directional play in the spot market. A swap is simply simultaneously buying a currency on one date and selling on another... depending on the position that is being rolled over. There is no directional influence on the spot price - simply a forward point (interest rates) implication in the forwards market.

Again, please excuse my ignorance if im wrong here... but i...
It is not the actual process of swap that moves the market, it is traders that hold out on trades until the swap is paid ...then closing out or reversing positions immediately after that causes movements. This used to happen very often on pairs that pay high interest, especially on triple swap days (wednesdays).. It does not happen very often these days because the interest rate differentials between the base currencies are not that great.

I used to trade the gbp/jpy very much and this was almost a given every Wednesday... buy up to 5pm... sell after 5pm... As I said, it does not have much of an effect these days...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #15,845
  • Jun 17, 2009 4:09pm Jun 17, 2009 4:09pm
Quoting Ari Gold
Hey guys,

Excuse my ignorance. I've worked in the FX market for quite a while as a dealer and now a trader... and i cant see why you would wait until 'after swaps are done' for a directional play in the spot market. A swap is simply simultaneously buying a currency on one date and selling on another... depending on the position that is being rolled over. There is no directional influence on the spot price - simply a forward point (interest rates) implication in the forwards market.

Again, please excuse my ignorance if I'm wrong here... but i...
The dollar shorts have to pay the cable longs......they sort of "swap" money.

When Interest is calculated end of day Wednesday and u are holding the dollar against the pound, interest is deducted from your account. If u are holding the pound against the dollar, interest is added to your account. Thus, the carry trade!

It' does not make sense to buy dollars before end of day Wednesday and pay up when interest will not be calculated for another week. Therefore no shorts before then on g/$. If u are holding the dollar, close it.

The only way to take advantage of the interest is to buy cable before end of day, on Wednesday. So theortically, the only way cable can move is up!

Thats what i always thought it was.
  • #15,846
  • Jun 17, 2009 4:14pm Jun 17, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting Ari Gold
Hey guys,

I've worked in the FX market for quite a while as a dealer and now a trader

Cheers,
MM
Ari, I just looked at your bio. It says your 23. I've got underwear older than that!
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #15,847
  • Jun 17, 2009 4:17pm Jun 17, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting cisco
Ari, I just looked at your bio. It says your 23. I've got underwear older than that!


Ari, I'm not laughing at your age, age does not matter in this market. I'm laughing at Cisco's underwear comment.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #15,848
  • Jun 17, 2009 4:21pm Jun 17, 2009 4:21pm
Quoting eohater


Ari, I'm not laughing at your age, age does not matter in this market. I'm laughing at Cisco's underwear comment.
I'm laughing because... I guess when you're 23 your idea of 'quite a while' is a little different than an old fart like me.
Hi, my name is Barry and you can keep your doctor...
  • #15,849
  • Jun 17, 2009 7:14pm Jun 17, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting Infinity
I like that x...
This is what my H4 look like, different closing time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx.gif Size: 17 KB
Many happy pips returned ...
  • #15,850
  • Jun 17, 2009 11:11pm Jun 17, 2009 11:11pm
Here's mine...need to see it break and re-test either way. :nerd:

HOLLA
Attached Image
  • #15,851
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:01am Jun 18, 2009 2:01am
Quoting Infinity
I don't know... I have a clear break of the h4 5/10/50 and h1 50/62...
I think some buyers are waiting to pounce at 6360-50...
Also rejection of the lows on the daily with a higher low
I hope I am not the only one who got the long at 6350... I already took 65 pips and covered the rest... back to bed now...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #15,852
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:10am Jun 18, 2009 2:10am
Quoting Infinity
I hope I am not the only one who got the long at 6350... I already took 65 pips and covered the rest... back to bed now...
Great trade there

I took the same trade at 6350, move S/L to BE too early when it was at 6365, got pulled back down and stop out. I put another entry at 6362 and still running, waiting for it to reach near yesterday's high before banking some pips.
Many happy pips returned ...
  • #15,853
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:17am Jun 18, 2009 2:17am
Quoting m0N5Ta
Great trade there

I took the same trade at 6350, move S/L to BE too early when it was at 6365, got pulled back down and stop out. I put another entry at 6362 and still running, waiting for it to reach near yesterday's high before banking some pips.
Good job! I took more profit at 6450 and set stop at +20...
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #15,854
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:21am Jun 18, 2009 2:21am
Quoting Infinity
I hope I am not the only one who got the long at 6350... I already took 65 pips and covered the rest... back to bed now...
I missed your entry . But I did get in off the 35 sma put 65 in the bank and covered. Got in a nice long on the Mistress also.
  • #15,855
  • Jun 18, 2009 2:45am Jun 18, 2009 2:45am
Quoting Infinity
Good job! I took more profit at 6450 and set stop at +20...
I did not bank when it was up 100 pips and got stopped out at +50 at 6412 , which is good enough, waiting for another setup before going to work. I am still learning from you guys how to pocket maximize pips per trade.
Many happy pips returned ...
  • #15,856
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:02am Jun 18, 2009 3:02am
Quoting m0N5Ta
I did not bank when it was up 100 pips and got stopped out at +50 at 6412 , which is good enough, waiting for another setup before going to work. I am still learning from you guys how to pocket maximize pips per trade.
Good job on your trade! I manually closed the rest of my trade at 6400 after that h1 and h4 close... that was huge..
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #15,857
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:02am Jun 18, 2009 3:02am
I love the fact we trade it both ways.
  • #15,858
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:12am Jun 18, 2009 3:12am
Quoting Infinity
Good job on your trade! I manually closed the rest of my trade at 6400 after that h1 and h4 close... that was huge..
Good to see you jumped out on time.

Wow what a fall, there is alot of sellers out there waiting for it reach near at yesterday's high. I am out for now and watching also getting ready to go to work, I neither have any short or long ATM, just don't feel comfortable with the movements.

Good luck with you all and happy trading.
Many happy pips returned ...
  • #15,859
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:14am Jun 18, 2009 3:14am
Quoting PippiNole
I love the fact we trade it both ways.
Good job, I am still a learner, not reach there yet
Many happy pips returned ...
  • #15,860
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:14am Jun 18, 2009 3:14am
70 pips and covered on the GU short, 60 pips and covered on the Mistress short. Time to go back to bed.
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