EURUSD

I have been upto ur post all this while but I will like to know ur figures 4 the Asian session before the NY session.

Can we still bear the situation???

4 hours since the low, and E/U can barely muster a 40 pip retrace. It's time for me to face the probability that the move down is not over. I am exiting my long from 1.3760. I am sure that as soon as I hit the close button, the journey north will begin---so you longs should be safe!

pull up a chair it may take a while.. pack a lunch.. sardines or tuna and some of those little viena sausage things... i dont know what it will do.. but the ceiling should be 3831 area..

bloomberg futures are down they usaully follow u.s. trend if so e markets should also

Hang Seng18,420.00-416.00

Yep I hate days when you don't even get a bounce, there is no chance given to ever get out at a profit, if your even alittle bit wrong.

Nice call on your exit this far

For what it's worth, which is not much and probably closer to zero...my ceiling is 1.3856.

Forex and Financial Market Update 15 June 2009

By VeriteFX on June 15, 2009 6:12 PM | No Comments

Euro plunges from sharp drop in crude, S&P 500, and central bank rhetoric:

Today's strong market volatility can be best described by looking at what the world's three leading correlated markets did:

1. Crude oil dropped below the $70 level, losing over 2% on the day
2. The S&P and S&P 500 futures both lost over 20-points, closing down 2.4% on the day
3. The US dollar Index rose over 1.25% on the day

Those three factors about sum it up to explain why the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY came under pressure, each losing several hundred pips to the dollar and yen respectively and crude oil was clearly the main culprit responsible for leading the higher-risk, higher-yielding markets lower which boosted the dollar and yen against the majors and crosses. In yesterday's update one of the reasons I put such a strong emphasis on the tight correlation that exists between the EUR/USD - crude oil - S&P 500 - geo-politics was for exactly what we saw play out in the markets today.

To re-cap today's price action... between Tokyo's open and Wall St.'s open the S&P 500 futures made a double digit drop which sent the EUR/USD from the 1.4000 level at down to the 1.3870 level by the time Wall St.'s opened this morning. As soon as Wall St. began trading both the Dow and S&P 500 sank again, pushing the euro even lower. Then the dollar was further helped from central bankers at the Fed and ECB. At 1021 EST Fed Evans gave the dollar an added shot against the euro with this comment:

"Sees rate hike when economy grows"

And then at 1100 EST ECB Papademos made comments that put even further downside pressure on the euro, sending the EUR/USD down over 60-pips in less than thirty minutes... Papademos said:

"Euro-area banks face USD$283 billion more losses by 2010; commercial property market source of risk; risks to financial stability remain high; banks should make use of government guarantees on new debt"

Papademos's negative comments sent more fear and risk aversion into market participants, easily pushing the euro below the 1.3780 level and then crude oil's clear break of the $70 level in the NY afternoon session further pushed the EUR/USD to hit the 1.3750 level. Now, there's a little more to this story that we need to take a look at...

ECB gives markets negative view on Eurozone banks:

As I mentioned in the update yesterday, the G8 voiced strong concern about the European banking system and now today we heard from the ECB on this issue. The ECB has done little to publicly address the systemic risk still lingering within the European banking system but the ECB decided they would talk about it today. ECB Papademos delivered the message about Eurozone banks losing at least another USD$282 billion by 2010 and there were even more alarming comments... the ECB also said:

"Hard-to-value assets have remained on bank balance sheets and the marked deterioration in the economic outlook has created concerns about the potential for sizable loan losses"

One ECB estimate shows that the total number of Eurozone banking los

Support resistance levels chart

http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/attac...yst-forex2.jpg

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support resistance

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Yesterday low 1.3755 is likely target low for asian session......whose "professional" traders are phobic about participating in recent highs/lows. Or, S1 which is at 1.3758.

Cover your @$$

Hold on to your f@#king hat

Any shorts Be-Ware.

waiting bounce back from 1.3755

I posted yesterday that I was considering a long based on the hourly chart.

It never materialized. Just as well because it would have hurt.

There's more down room on the daily and larger charts. I'm looking at 3759 for a short entry.

Russia, China and Japan have all said they have confidence in the dollar. Now, they may very well be dumping it on the QT but that doesn't matter right now. What matters is what they publicly say. It could be a classic large scale pump and dump scheme. But so long as you hold on to your f@#king hat, who cares? Follow the moves and it'll be ok.

What?

You holding some longs?

not really, not yet

So you feel shorts are in play?

nah no shorts at these levels either. I have closed my shorts that I had from sunday at around 3775. I think it is DMZ right now.

what say u?

Alrighty, stole another 50 pips on the way down (2 lots). I'm done for tonight. You've been great. Try the veal. G'night everybody !

In all seriousness. I'm out of my scalping shorts 'til NY. 1.3746 is my long term (since Dec 08) fibo line at 38.2. 1.3780 is my 38.2 fibo on the previous uptrend from circa Apr 20. Below here, there's a free fall drop down to 1.3610 and 1.3589 on my charts.

I'm gonna sit on the side lines for tonight. No need to be greedy. But I'll still be reading this thread and posting my crazy thoughts.

Not sure what you guys are looking at:

GOLD -- Right at 50% of the up move from April 15 starting at 865 Area
GBPUSD -- right at 50% of up move from June from 1.58
EURUSD -- just below the 38.2% line fo the move from April. Abd findinf support from the March 19-23 highs

Could EUR fall -- sure but ther others would probably fall also -- which they should be finding support.

I see no reason to think about shorting. If anything some longs with reasonable stops would seem like a better approach

Carrying shorts from the high 1.41 level.

Many pending shorts above have been abandoned and since the decline I have yet to have any additional shorts filled.

Keeping them open and if I'm lucky my pendings at 1.3810 , 1.3845 and 1.3880 might get filled.

In the mean time I'll hold my shorts.

In addition I shorted USDCHF from 1.0950 (scalp) SL at BE. TP at 1.0925

good luck.

but why short swissie you are bearish on eu