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  • #109,961
  • Jun 13, 2009 12:59am Jun 13, 2009 12:59am
Okay, enough philosophy, anybody got thoughts on the Euro ?

If not, I'm going to bed..........
  • #109,962
  • Jun 13, 2009 1:11am Jun 13, 2009 1:11am
Thanks toshi for your good and nice advise
I have been trafing thai stock market for 9 years and trying to improve my self for ever by feeding knowledge and gain some experiec and thai stock market is too easy for me now
But i want to enter a bigger amrket so trying to understand forex market since last 6 months currently i am in lost but i little now as trying to cover back and improving my strategy and ready ti fight back but still loosing some ground sometime as not much confidence but i am still trying more and more to win this market and will do my best where i think can take me more one year to win this market i will try to improve mydelf with all your support from here on and getting some points where i am weak and never realized is important due to our market is too small
and easy to specualte this market so institution are benefeting from this point.so i have decided to enter in this market from my basic knowledge and then be professional like u guys
  • #109,963
  • Jun 13, 2009 1:14am Jun 13, 2009 1:14am
Quoting toshi
Okay, enough philosophy, anybody got thoughts on the Euro ?

If not, I'm going to bed..........
Nothing new , the old is back again & again ,just seeing & plan for trading this week.
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #109,964
  • Jun 13, 2009 1:36am Jun 13, 2009 1:36am
Quoting redrose
Thanks for the advise toshi and Ali
I think from my view everyone has some weekness and i am trying to win that as i am a full time trder so looking for fast entry buy since last week i have chenged my timeframe from 5 M to an hour and 4 hour strategy
as got some good feed back from your all post here
it was nice to get some idea such as i like mohammed to where he is using candle stick too help where i never ever used much so each kind os sharing and expeirnce is geat help for me to avoid further mistakes
Look, there's another important thing to think about that I learned the hard way. ISL (ie. initial stop loss) has some simple rules. You set it where the trend that you are trying to get is no longer in place. I'm not going into technical details as to where the ISL should be set, BUT you must be aware of the emotional and financial aspects of your ISL size. If you trade a fix ISL (say 1%-2%) of your account size, market will not care about that and you'll have it hit many more times than setting a proper ISL. Now, although there are legends about stop hunting, the reality is that it doesn't happen that much because it would be way too expensive and dangerous.

Getting to the point set up a proper ISL and set it up to a size you feel comfortable losing. If you are not comfortable losing that ISL sooner or later you'll ignore it when market turns against and you might end up like Carcour.

My intraday trades have a 10 to 15 pts. SL and they don't get hit that often as one would think. There is no magic trick. I just enter the trades where a normal ISL is smaller than 15 pips. If not...wait for the next opportunity. There's always one. And for a 10-15 pts trade I am trading off the M5 chart consulting H1 and H4 for general outlook.

For swing trades the SL can be anywhere between 30 to 50 pts and trade off H1 chart.

I never took trades any longer than that so I really can't tell what's the next level because I don't feel comfortable with SL higher than 50.

[EDIT] Oh and I don't take day to day trades unless I am over 10% for the week, and if the ISL of that trade would be smaller than whatever I make above 10%. Simple rules, keeps you out of trouble.
  • #109,965
  • Jun 13, 2009 1:43am Jun 13, 2009 1:43am
Thanks for all your advise and will strict to the rules
  • #109,966
  • Jun 13, 2009 1:45am Jun 13, 2009 1:45am
Quoting redrose
Thanks for all your advise and will strict to the rules
Take these rules as informative and if you feel they are proper for your style and account size. In time you'll get to make your own set of rules.
  • #109,967
  • Jun 13, 2009 1:51am Jun 13, 2009 1:51am
Quoting fontu
Nothing new , the old is back again & again ,just seeing & plan for trading this week.
fontu

Looks good. You know, the only thing that concerns me a bit
and I'll have to think about this over the weekend is,
I'm getting bearish on this euro, short term atleast, and since the trend the last few weeks
has been up for the most part, I'm worried that either one of two things are happening.
That either a trend change is coming and that's why I'm getting the urge to sell
or otherwise that I'm falling into the same trap I've worked so long to stay out of
namely looking down when everyone else is looking down when we should be looking up or vise versa.

I don't like seeing so many bears at one time in one place.
They're usually wrong. Same with bulls. Too many in one place at one time.

So I think after pushing 14 hundred pips up off the bottom, some correction is in order.

the 143 to 138 retrace is nice, but I think there's more.
Still that was about 500 pips. It was substantial.

How much more does it have to do ?
Answer is: none if it doesn't want to.

I see the H&S formation. Everybody sees the damn thing.
If everybody expects a drop, how likely can that be ?

These are the things I'm mulling over right now.

I'm expecting a big drop, but 150 is just as far away as 130.

Rollover into the Sept futures contract occured this week.
Its only a part of the market but it's representative enough to get an idea of what's going on.

If the commercials are buying back some of their shorts, I feel bettter about going short.
As long as the large specs are long, it's tuff to sell against them.

And don't even start about the fundamentals.

The Dollar is like a bad dream. Maybe the Euro will be an even worse nightmare.

Anyway I'm gonna start selling any remaining strength from here upto 142,
but beyond that, I would get out of the way until the 138 neckline was clearly gone.

If the trend is changing short term down, then that IS trading with the trend so, Id be okay with that.

But trend changes take time and and we are only a few days away since the high above 143.
In a few more days if the 143 isn't taken out, it could be the high for the summer.

For friends down under, it's going to be hot as hell here in the US, while you all are seeing the cooler weather now.
But what I mean is for this season, that price print in the 143's could have been it for a while.

We"ll know in a few days with greater certainty. PA will tell us.
  • #109,968
  • Jun 13, 2009 1:59am Jun 13, 2009 1:59am
some body posted this on friday

6 reason why traders fails.

1. Lack of a Trading Plan
2. Lack of Discipline to Follow the Plan
3. Failure to control emotions
4. Failure to accept and limit losses
5. Lack of commitment
6. Over-Trading
  • #109,969
  • Jun 13, 2009 2:07am Jun 13, 2009 2:07am
Quoting Alihuzaifa
some body posted this on friday

6 reason why traders fails.

1. Lack of a Trading Plan
2. Lack of Discipline to Follow the Plan
3. Failure to control emotions
4. Failure to accept and limit losses
5. Lack of commitment
6. Over-Trading
I did. :
  • #109,970
  • Jun 13, 2009 2:22am Jun 13, 2009 2:22am
Quoting TheFisherman
I did. :
good one,that all are fact
  • #109,971
  • Jun 13, 2009 2:24am Jun 13, 2009 2:24am
Thanks for that post and i have kept on top of my laptop
that post was great man
6 rules is important for this trade
  • #109,972
  • Jun 13, 2009 2:24am Jun 13, 2009 2:24am
Quoting TheFisherman
I did. :
Good job but a bit explanation as to how they be overcome certainly be a piece of document that others follow .
Thanks ,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #109,973
  • Jun 13, 2009 2:35am Jun 13, 2009 2:35am
Quoting toshi
Looks good. You know, the only thing that concerns me a bit
and I'll have to think about this over the weekend is,
I'm getting bearish on this euro, short term atleast, and since the trend the last few weeks
has been up for the most part, I'm worried that either one of two things are happening.
That either a trend change is coming and that's why I'm getting the urge to sell
or otherwise that I'm falling into the same trap I've worked so long to stay out of
namely looking down when everyone else is looking down when we should be looking up or vise...
Thanks for details ,Sure we will know within few days where it heads for after great indecision /consolodation phase be over.
We saw price fail to up when expected to up & similarly down and most of the time the down ones arrested halfway & market tried to up hurriedly & failed.Some correction should be there before continuation up but may not again enough as thought.

Not still thinking a trend change greatly though.Anyway we to try go with trend whatever just to be more flexible to change of the directions untill settles.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #109,974
  • Jun 13, 2009 4:08am Jun 13, 2009 4:08am
hello. does anybody know the links where to check the online currency rates?
yesterday i was late and couldnt close my longs. I usually never keep trades open for weekends. i'm especially worried because of G8 meetings. now just hope there will be not so big gap on monday opening
i forgot the one i used before ((
  • #109,975
  • Jun 13, 2009 4:12am Jun 13, 2009 4:12am
Due to my great confusion over heads and shoulders this week, I thought I would look into it a bit further and came across this article in the process. I'd been keeping a keen eye on the USDX anyway over the last few weeks but I thought some readers might find this of interest.

50% Correction Set For the US Dollar Index

Don’t let the recent strength of the US Dollar fool you as we are still in a major downtrend that could be about to take a turn for the worse. We are quickly approaching a critical point in this Head & Shoulders pattern.


The $80 range is the neckline and a break through that convincingly should eventually send this index down to the $40 range over the next 5-8 years. It’s not going to happen overnight, but a slow bleed down to those levels rendering the worlds safest currency essentially worthless.


You can argue the other side of the story till you’re blue in the face, but the fact is that charts don’t lie.



http://zentrader.ca/blog/images/june2008/090123usd.png


The only thing that can save the dollar is if this chart morphs into some other pattern soon. It has to bounce and begin forming a series of higher highs and lower lows, or else one should start hedging by way of PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) and the Street Tracks Gold Trust (GLD).

To tie this in to the earlier post regarding gold as long as trends remain bullish for the gold sector in the longer term, a large drop in the US dollar makes perfect sense. That’s not to say that it’s going to play out that way, I’m just saying that it makes sense that the dollar will be under pressure then gold should do very well in the future.

This was a guest post by Jeff Pierce (Track his trades on Covestor.com). Jeff is a full time trader based out of Vancouver Canada. Read his blog at zentrader.ca.

http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2009...orrection-set/

GL&GT
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #109,976
  • Jun 13, 2009 4:12am Jun 13, 2009 4:12am
Quoting kuzey
hello. does anybody know the links where to check the online currency rates?
yesterday i was late and couldnt close my longs. I usually never keep trades open for weekends. i'm especially worried because of G8 meetings. now just hope there will be not so big gap on monday opening
i forgot the one i used before ((

As in Pre / Extended Market, this could be the 500pip gap weekend then

Nothing you can do about it, the Gap almost definately won't happen so don't, pre trade is meaningless and horrible to look at, so turn PC off and come back for the open sunday!!

GL
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #109,977
  • Jun 13, 2009 4:17am Jun 13, 2009 4:17am
Quoting kuzey
hello. does anybody know the links where to check the online currency rates?
yesterday i was late and couldnt close my longs. I usually never keep trades open for weekends. i'm especially worried because of G8 meetings. now just hope there will be not so big gap on monday opening
i forgot the one i used before ((
me the same, but short. just check here: http://www.oanda.com/rtrates

good weekend all
  • #109,978
  • Jun 13, 2009 4:20am Jun 13, 2009 4:20am
Quoting Turveyd
As in Pre / Extended Market, this could be the 500pip gap weekend then

Nothing you can do about it, the Gap almost definately won't happen so don't, pre trade is meaningless and horrible to look at, so turn PC off and come back for the open sunday!!

GL
yes i know that it can be a big gap, at least i want a link to check it online. i remember the link was posted before but i cat find it now

damn... i was late for about 15 minutes to be able to close my trades ...
  • #109,979
  • Jun 13, 2009 4:48am Jun 13, 2009 4:48am
Quoting kuzey
yes i know that it can be a big gap, at least i want a link to check it online. i remember the link was posted before but i cat find it now

damn... i was late for about 15 minutes to be able to close my trades ...
Wouldn't worry about it. The G8 not expected to move markets. Unless something outside of G8.
"G-8 Meeting Unlikely to Move Market s

The G-8 meeting is currently underway in Leece, Italy to discuss the recent economic developments. The G-8 meeting does not have as much weight as the G-20 Leaders Summit. Furthermore its influence will be limited as no central bankers will be present, keeping talks centered mostly on taxes and spending rather than interest rates. ................All things considered, the G-8 meeting will be a non-event for the currency markets, one that will most likely be forgotten by next week’s trading."

http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kath...ent-place.aspx

Here's what Germany's finance minister said a couple of hours ago:

GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER PEER STEINBRUECK:

On the strong euro:

"I have always said, that the German economy is reacting amazingly to a strong euro."

On economy:
"The upswing in the U.S. and emerging countries like China will be earlier that in Europe."

"For the United States and the emerging countries I expect an upswing like a clear V -- that means fast slowdown and also fast upswing."

source: Reuters.
  • #109,980
  • Jun 13, 2009 4:56am Jun 13, 2009 4:56am
Quoting slykyn
me the same, but short. just check here: http://www.oanda.com/rtrates

good weekend all
+
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-rates/
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