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NFP System - Backtest data provided

  • #181
  • Apr 20, 2007 4:17pm Apr 20, 2007 4:17pm
Hi all, I just made this template which contains vertical lines on NFP dates for Jan-Dec 07. Plus, it contains two bold horizontal lines for the NFP range (friday-midnight sunday) top and bottom. Also, it contains two (non-bold) horizontal lines that you can move at week's end to show weekly high and low for re-entry purposes if need be (by Kevin's rules). At the end of the year, just reset the dates for the vertical lines, and you're ready to go!

All objects are labelled so that you can easily identify the proper line when you're editing them (but you should only have to do this at the end of the year). So, at week's end adjust your two thin lines, at month's beginning observe highs and lows between the lime green lines and set you bold horizontal lines to match, and just follow the system! I did this template for the gbpusd pair, so you will have to manually edit the values of the 4 horizontal lines to get them at the right values for any other pair.

Hope you enjoy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nfpchart.jpg Size: 78 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl nfp.tpl   7 KB | 637 downloads
  • #182
  • Apr 21, 2007 10:38am Apr 21, 2007 10:38am
Sorry, Forex Factory does not allow typing your email address on the forums or the request for email addresses on the forums.
  • #183
  • Apr 21, 2007 3:55pm Apr 21, 2007 3:55pm
Hello again

billbss - the pairs are correctly adjusted. The USD/CHF and GBP/USD pairs (for example) in the indicator are each given a different sign (negative for CHF and positive for GBP). So, whenever a negative move occurs on the USD/CHF, it will make the Sentinel go up. Likewise, if the GBP/USD goes down, it would make the Sentinel number go down. Look at the indicator code, you'll understand what I mean.

aktaurus - the answer to your second question is to include both the 8:30 and the 00:00 candle in your calculations. The first one, check your PM.

JoshDance - great to have you You're right about my typo in the txt file. And though I haven't tested it, logistically we should be able to use a different pair than GBP/USD. The movement is captured by a strength or weakness in the dollar, so I would assume that each USD based pair has the potential to be used. I would advise backtesting it first though

---

Another PDF is going out tonight, highlighting what happened this past week, and where we will be heading in the next (and final) week of this month's NFP trade.

-Kev
Savage Pip Fiend
  • #184
  • Apr 21, 2007 4:29pm Apr 21, 2007 4:29pm
Thanks Kevin-
I have another question-

By 000 EST, Do you mean Midnight Sunday night or Midnight Monday night?

In other words, do Monday's prices help form the box?

I also assume that by EST you mean either DST or standard time, whichever is in effect.
  • #185
  • Apr 21, 2007 5:42pm Apr 21, 2007 5:42pm
Hi to all of you,

and special thanks to Kevin for sharing this great system with us http://www.forexfactory.com/images/editor/smilie.gif.

To Joshdance:
Nice Template, thanks for sharing too, makes it very easy to use the system on MT4.

One question: Are you interested in implementing the other NFP system, that has also won in the Rob Booker championship? It is very easy to use and would be a perfect addition to Kevin's system, because it deals exactly with the timeframe between (from NFP release time at 8:30 till max. 2 days later, when none of the targets were achieved, the trade will be closed).
As I'm not the author of this system, I'm not sure if it's OK to tell it here, but would ask him if it's OK.
Let me know what you think, especially Kevin.

Thanks so far
  • #186
  • Apr 21, 2007 7:48pm Apr 21, 2007 7:48pm
I am having the same problem with blank indicator box on my chart. I has IBFX mini and would appreciates anyone who can tell me how to correct the problem. Thanks in advance
  • #187
  • Apr 21, 2007 7:57pm Apr 21, 2007 7:57pm
I put the ibfx versions in the 5th post, here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...58&postcount=5
  • #188
  • Apr 22, 2007 7:54am Apr 22, 2007 7:54am
Hi, Kevin and how to understand a phrase from the description of system

"6. Re-entries can be taken only if the price has closed above or below the current and previous week's high/low respectively"
  • #189
  • Apr 22, 2007 5:07pm Apr 22, 2007 5:07pm
Quoting VLA
Hi, Kevin and how to understand a phrase from the description of system

"6. Re-entries can be taken only if the price has closed above or below the current and previous week's high/low respectively"
If you enter a position, and have to close because the position goes bad or violates a rule, then to reenter, the price must meet all the previous requirements, and in addition, it must be above the previous week's high price for a long position, or it must be below the previous week's low, for a short position.
  • #190
  • Apr 23, 2007 12:21am Apr 23, 2007 12:21am
Quoting JoshDance
If you enter a position, and have to close because the position goes bad or violates a rule, then to reenter, the price must meet all the previous requirements, and in addition, it must be above the previous week's high price for a long position, or it must be below the previous week's low, for a short position.
Thanks
  • #191
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:07am Apr 23, 2007 2:07am
Hello, JoshDance!

Thank you for your reply and advices!

Quoting JoshDance
aktaurus, in your chart it looks like you have not set your high and low correctly for your "box". Looks like your box only includes 24-hr of data maybe? For April 07, it should go from NFP minute 0 on Friday all the way to Midnight (between Monday and Tuesday) (in this case a day late because of Easter). Your box is way too small. Guys, it seems that you don't have to draw an actual "box" by the way... just draw a line at the highest high in this period, and at the lowest low, and those are your zones.
Excuse me, but... Are you sure?

"Draw box (horizontal line on high and low) between 8:30 EST on NFP Friday and 00:00 EST the following Monday."

Monday = 00:00...23:59
Tuesday = 00:00...23:59

And later you write:
Quoting JoshDance
it contains two bold horizontal lines for the NFP range (friday-midnight sunday) top and bottom
So "00:00 EST the following Monday" - is it 00:00
between Monday and Tuesday
or
between Sunday and Monday
?

Thank you once again!
  • #192
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:19am Apr 23, 2007 2:19am
Quoting Kevin_E
aktaurus - the answer to your second question is to include both the 8:30 and the 00:00 candle in your calculations. The first one, check your PM.
Thank you very much!

Could you also look at msg#191 or msg#185 at this thread? We need your opinion!

Thanks!
  • #193
  • Apr 23, 2007 5:16am Apr 23, 2007 5:16am
Does anyone know if the box ends at Midnight Sunday night or Midnight Monday night?
  • #194
  • Apr 23, 2007 9:36pm Apr 23, 2007 9:36pm
Quoting aktaurus
Excuse me, but... Are you sure?
aktaurus, if you look right after I said "between Monday and Tuesday", you'll see that I said this:

"(in this case a day late because of Easter). "

:-)

The time range is from 8:30AM to 0:00AM on Monday. It's pretty clear, right? 0:00 on Monday is that time right after 23:59PM on Sunday.

The whole idea is, in my understanding, to get the range of trading from NFP all day friday, let the dust settle a bit until Sunday evening, and then catch a few hours of initial cooled-off reaction to the news.
  • #195
  • Apr 23, 2007 10:13pm Apr 23, 2007 10:13pm
hey

Matrixler, I thought about it yes. I looked at his entry, and was actually a little confused by it. 38 out of the 47 trades are actually entered on the 8:35 candle, and many more than that are entered before (or at) 9:00. His system works on something called an "R Multiplier". Basically, you equate your stop loss to the percentage in your account you would like to have in risk (the max amount to lose). So, if you want to risk 10% of your account (a 5000 dollar account for example), and your stop is set at 20 pips:

5000 (equity) * 0.1 (10%) = 500 (risk)
500 (risk) / 20 (stop) = 25 (dollars per pip risked over 20 pips)
25 (dollars per pip) / 10 (dollars per lot) = 2.5 lots

So, if you risked 10% of your account over 20 pips, then every 20 pips worth of profit, you'll have earned 10% of your account. Its all about equating your stop loss with a percentage of the account you want to lose. His max drawdown has been 26%, which is pretty good considering the amount of money he turned over. But his best winners were over 100% because of his R multiplier, and jumping in a trade when he technically can't, gaining hundreds of pips in a quick amount of time.

38 out of the 47 (80%) trades that were taken were all opened on 8:35 NFP day...5 minutes after the report came out. Not only that, every trade that wasn't made at 8:35 was stopped out, which means the system only works for those trades that occur IMMEDIATELY after the report is released. This includes his 5 big trades that launched him over 1 million from 77,000. It would be nearly impossible to throw that much money (or any money at all for that matter) at the market 5 minutes after the report comes out. No broker that I've ever heard of would take an order as soon as the report comes out. As a matter of fact, many brokers suspend orders for an alotted amount of time before and after the report. Also, he states in his txt file that he didn't get to spend very much time on it and would have liked much more to make it better, yet he also states he coded his in 15 minutes in Tradestation. He had rules for entry that simply would never work in a real life situation. Any trader will tell you the same. I know that Rob knows about the flaw, I wonder why he didn't notice?

The box is actually from the NFP candle to 00:00 Monday (an hour after 23:00 Sunday). The 8:30 candle and the 00:00 candle are both counted in the high/low process.

-Kev
Savage Pip Fiend
  • #196
  • Apr 24, 2007 1:27am Apr 24, 2007 1:27am
Quoting JoshDance
aktaurus, if you look right after I said "between Monday and Tuesday", you'll see that I said this:

"(in this case a day late because of Easter). "

:-)
!!!

THANK YOU!
  • #197
  • Apr 24, 2007 2:42am Apr 24, 2007 2:42am
Hi friends, I met the test GBPUSD of history in 2006 and received these results :
January +100
February +7
March -100
April and May +1049
June +303
July +200
August +8
September +295
October +305
November -21
December -400
  • #198
  • Apr 24, 2007 3:19pm Apr 24, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting Kevin_E
hey

Matrixler, I thought about it yes. I looked at his entry, and was actually a little confused by it. 38 out of the 47 trades are actually entered on the 8:35 candle, and many more than that are entered before (or at) 9:00. His system works on something called an "R Multiplier". Basically, you equate your stop loss to the percentage in your account you would like to have in risk (the max amount to lose). So, if you want to risk 10% of your account (a 5000 dollar account for example), and your stop is set at 20 pips:

5000 (equity) * 0.1 (10%) = 500 (risk)
500 (risk) / 20 (stop) = 25 (dollars per pip risked over 20 pips)
25 (dollars per pip) / 10 (dollars per lot) = 2.5 lots

So, if you risked 10% of your account over 20 pips, then every 20 pips worth of profit, you'll have earned 10% of your account. Its all about equating your stop loss with a percentage of the account you want to lose. His max drawdown has been 26%, which is pretty good considering the amount of money he turned over. But his best winners were over 100% because of his R multiplier, and jumping in a trade when he technically can't, gaining hundreds of pips in a quick amount of time.

38 out of the 47 (80%) trades that were taken were all opened on 8:35 NFP day...5 minutes after the report came out. Not only that, every trade that wasn't made at 8:35 was stopped out, which means the system only works for those trades that occur IMMEDIATELY after the report is released. This includes his 5 big trades that launched him over 1 million from 77,000. It would be nearly impossible to throw that much money (or any money at all for that matter) at the market 5 minutes after the report comes out. No broker that I've ever heard of would take an order as soon as the report comes out. As a matter of fact, many brokers suspend orders for an alotted amount of time before and after the report. Also, he states in his txt file that he didn't get to spend very much time on it and would have liked much more to make it better, yet he also states he coded his in 15 minutes in Tradestation. He had rules for entry that simply would never work in a real life situation. Any trader will tell you the same. I know that Rob knows about the flaw, I wonder why he didn't notice?

The box is actually from the NFP candle to 00:00 Monday (an hour after 23:00 Sunday). The 8:30 candle and the 00:00 candle are both counted in the high/low process.

-Kev
Savage Pip Fiend

Hi Kevin, I'm trading News events (especially NFP) for 6 Months now and made some other experiences. It is possible, if you have the right broker (I use IBFX and FXSol) and trade with the right settings.
You'll be filled with your order, but the order Gap should be at least 25 Pips away from the current price. So the only adjustment to the other system I would recommend, is to have those 25 Pips distance to the current price shortly (2-5min.) before the News comes out.
Not to make this too long here, I would recommend to simply test this with a very small Lot size (don't know if they will fill your order if you throw 50LOTs in but this should take a while to get there...) and on Real account (cause Demo Servers will often "hang" on NFP due to small servers).
But I think, you'll see that it is possible and could be very profitably.

Anyhow, reading through this thread, testing the indicator and receiving your pdf updates for this sysem, I could say this is with no doubt a very promising, solid looking system, which I'll definetly trade live.

Good trades to all of you
  • #199
  • Apr 24, 2007 3:59pm Apr 24, 2007 3:59pm
Quoting Matrixler
Hi Kevin, I'm trading News events (especially NFP) for 6 Months now and made some other experiences. It is possible, if you have the right broker (I use IBFX and FXSol) and trade with the right settings.
You'll be filled with your order, but the order Gap should be at least 25 Pips away from the current price. So the only adjustment to the other system I would recommend, is to have those 25 Pips distance to the current price shortly (2-5min.) before the News comes out.
Not to make this too long here, I would recommend to simply test this with a very small Lot size (don't know if they will fill your order if you throw 50LOTs in but this should take a while to get there...) and on Real account (cause Demo Servers will often "hang" on NFP due to small servers).
But I think, you'll see that it is possible and could be very profitably.

Anyhow, reading through this thread, testing the indicator and receiving your pdf updates for this sysem, I could say this is with no doubt a very promising, solid looking system, which I'll definetly trade live.

Good trades to all of you
There have been some significant gaps in price (in the opposite direction from the initial spike) that scare me away from NFP trading.
  • #200
  • Apr 24, 2007 5:41pm Apr 24, 2007 5:41pm
Matrixler, thank you for your insight and your kind words I'll look into these platforms and do some tests when the next NFP comes around. If indeed orders such as this are possible, then I wouldn't have any quams integrating the two systems at all. I think it would turn profits much quicker. Always have to keep an open mind.

Also, I'm making some minor to the system. No rule will be added to create new orders or filter out orders, so the system will remain the same. The only thing that I am going to change is the system of stop losses and take profit. I put this system together with a limited amount of time for a contest, and as satisfied as I am with it, I think it can be improved on quite a bit. A reversal system will probably be set in place to limit losses, and a better take profit system will be put together for those who hate seeing your price retreat 150 pips before it hits the 336 SMA to close. Of course, as I make new discoveries, you at FF will be the first to know

-Kev
Savage Pip Fiend
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