EURUSD

Nice one, Atlast!

That was the move I wanted to catch as well... oh well, thats the tradeoff for BE SLs.

Like I have wrote, the drop continues.
I have closed one short at 1.3820. 400 pips won.
I have others now around 500 pips.

Who say that it is very hard to win 400 or 500 pips with small accounts are wrong.

What you must do it is try to pick the top, I can say that this time I was waiting to see the top a little bit higher, but I have wrote when price around 1.4300, just open shorts and turn off your computer.
Who read my Sentiment I was Bearish, if you want you can follow, because I try to update my sentiment every time.

Why others do not do the same, because they do not trust in their sentiments, that's why!!

The Daily Divergence are running fine, it can go more pips down.

Be careful about longs for more than a scalp.

short again 1.3853

market volatility is too low to trade today

infact this whole week we dont have much NEWS

Nice. Keep it up and you will be laughing at the end of the year.

let's see where pa will go in 15 min

out +11

EUR/USD continued its drop in European hours this morning as short USD positions continued to be closed on Friday's story of a possible Fed rate hike by the end of this year. While the USD also posted significant gains vs the GBP, CHF, CAD the AUD and NZD, the JPY performed better. USD/JPY edged down to the 98.25 area this morning before bouncing back to 98.60.

There was no new news this morning to strengthen the market's expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates by the end of the year, but the impact of this story has been widespread. Asian currencies such as the KRW, INR and the IDR have all fallen vs the USD on the back of the US recovery story in addition to the moves registered by the majors. News that S&P has cut its Ireland rating provided some EUR negative incentive as did the worse than expected German April factory orders data (-37.1% y/y). However, scheduled data was thin on the ground.

The UK market continues to cautiously watch the political arena. PM Brown has held on to his job over the weekend, but the results of last week's European election have brought Labour its worst post-war result highlighting the public's dissatisfaction with the present government. This morning has seen another government minister leave office. Jane Kennedy has gone reportedly as a result of her refusal to pledge support to the PM.
Tonight's meeting between Brown and Labour MPs will be crucial in determining how much support there is for the PM within the Labour party. Right now it seems possible that the PM will find sufficient support to keep his job, at least for now. While the situation is still very uncertain, cable's strong loses this morning can be linked to general USD strength. EUR/GBP has edged lower suggesting that some of last week's shock on the political front has slipped out of the price.

The Latvia lats appreciated sharply this morning following last week's heavy sell off. Strong policy measures from the gov't and central bank to prevent devaluation have resulted in an IMF loan and helped pare down the devaluation risk. EUR/SEK has continued to edge higher on continued nervousness.

There is no scheduled US data today.

I am for Long Term Bearish, but Because some up levels broke we must see now others below breaking for me thinking that we can be below 1.25 this Year.

My short at 1.4330 will be BE or 3000 pips!

Next level to close shorts below 1.3666.

i am waiting to sell at 1.4050...any comment?

price is moving higher and higher..

You mean you are willing to give up 500 pips extra profit to BE?
1.3727 is not going to be easy to break I think. In fact I will be building longs from there, if it gets there, for low risk intermediate term trade.

retracement possible...?

The dollar continues to dominate against the euro and the pound, as EUR/USD broke important 1.39 and GBP/USD is trading below 1.59 at time of writing. The market participants came back from the weekend, feeling a bit more positive about the economic outlook ,after Fridays payroll data showed an improved number which helped the dollar on its upside journey. The fundamentals are starting to matter again and traders bought the dollar as an aftermath of better than expected economic data.

The EUR/USD continued to slide and the pair did not even stop at important 1.3930 but broke on the downside after the market open. Next support level lies at 1.38 ahead of 1.3760. The pair needs to keep those levels in tact for any recovery hope, however clear break of 1.38 may indicate that the euro could fall even more in the coming days. As long as the pair keeps 1.40 untouched, the downside may prevail.


The GBP/USD is trading lower again not only due to dollar strength but the pound has its own drama to deal with, as UK government is having a crisis and the Prime Minister’s future looks gloomy at best. Gordon Brown has refused to step down, after ministers asked for his resignation and the fact that this has been even discussed as an option makes the pound weak and investors not willing to buy it before the picture is clearer . The political instability in UK weighs on the country’s economic outlook and all the positive sentiment that traders had in previous weeks, seem to be fading away. The next few days will be crucial for the currency and the country’s outlook and GBP/USD needs to keep 1.5760 for now if further upside is to be seen.


The economic calendar is almost empty today, with no economic data out of US and a few numbers out of Euro zone which showed an improved economic sentiment in Europe but not enough to swift the current negative euro direction. The dollar strength can be seen as a pure correction of all those negative days we had in previous weeks, however hints that FED may increase its rates in the coming months, gives investors more reasons to buy the currency. After many months of almost zero rates, there are signs that inflation may be coming back and the recovery may be in motion, so therefore FED may be called to re think its low rate monetary policy. Traders have started to speculate that the bank may start to hike its rates from the September meeting, however let’s not jump into conclusions until we see more economic data out of US.


Many economists and analysts across the globe have dismissed the recent recovery trend that the US government is trying to promote and instead are seeing this recent rally in stocks and equities as a simple correction before another wave down. The truth is that the recession is still a reality and it will take more than a few “green shoots” in the current economic environment in order to talk about a true recovery. The markets are still confused as to which direction to take and always risk aversion comes back when another headline or news disappoint.


Let’s see how this week progress form here and how the other markets like commodities, metals and stocks will react…

hope you are patient
Ill be shorting at 1.3890 ish with a stop above the figure

The dollar continues to dominate against the euro and the pound, as EUR/USD broke important 1.39 and GBP/USD is trading below 1.59 at time of writing. The market participants came back from the weekend, feeling a bit more positive about the economic outlook ,after Fridays payroll data showed an improved number which helped the dollar on its upside journey. The fundamentals are starting to matter again and traders bought the dollar as an aftermath of better than expected economic data.

The EUR/USD continued to slide and the pair did not even stop at important 1.3930 but broke on the downside after the market open. Next support level lies at 1.38 ahead of 1.3760. The pair needs to keep those levels in tact for any recovery hope, however clear break of 1.38 may indicate that the euro could fall even more in the coming days. As long as the pair keeps 1.40 untouched, the downside may prevail.


The GBP/USD is trading lower again not only due to dollar strength but the pound has its own drama to deal with, as UK government is having a crisis and the Prime Minister’s future looks gloomy at best. Gordon Brown has refused to step down, after ministers asked for his resignation and the fact that this has been even discussed as an option makes the pound weak and investors not willing to buy it before the picture is clearer . The political instability in UK weighs on the country’s economic outlook and all the positive sentiment that traders had in previous weeks, seem to be fading away. The next few days will be crucial for the currency and the country’s outlook and GBP/USD needs to keep 1.5760 for now if further upside is to be seen.


The economic calendar is almost empty today, with no economic data out of US and a few numbers out of Euro zone which showed an improved economic sentiment in Europe but not enough to swift the current negative euro direction. The dollar strength can be seen as a pure correction of all those negative days we had in previous weeks, however hints that FED may increase its rates in the coming months, gives investors more reasons to buy the currency. After many months of almost zero rates, there are signs that inflation may be coming back and the recovery may be in motion, so therefore FED may be called to re think its low rate monetary policy. Traders have started to speculate that the bank may start to hike its rates from the September meeting, however let’s not jump into conclusions until we see more economic data out of US.


Many economists and analysts across the globe have dismissed the recent recovery trend that the US government is trying to promote and instead are seeing this recent rally in stocks and equities as a simple correction before another wave down. The truth is that the recession is still a reality and it will take more than a few “green shoots” in the current economic environment in order to talk about a true recovery. The markets are still confused as to which direction to take and always risk aversion comes back when another headline or news disappoint.


Let’s see how this week progress form here and how the other markets like commodities, metals and stocks will react…

I am waiting to short eur/usd at 1.4030

My longs brought in some pips but I'm back out now.

I'm ticked that I missed this initial bear move... I'd been waiting for it and wanted to catch it at the top, but I didn't hop on since we didn't get quite as high as I expected (looking back, it was stupid not to hop onboard when we were within 100 pips of what I thought would be the top...)

OK no big deal, another setup is always waiting around the corner...

I don't want to miss what I think will be a continued slide down (and when I say down I mean DOWN), so I'll be looking to hop onboard the short bus when the opportunity presents itself (either at 1.4050, a hit of the 100 SMA, or any other significant retracement...)

Beware shorters

European Morning Wrap Up

Written by Gerry Davies
June 8, 2009 at 11:00 GMT

 

1. Swiss May unemployment 3.4%, better than median forecast of 3.5%
2. Euro zone sentix index rises to -27.o in June vs -34.3 in May, better than median forecast of -31.0. 9-month high.
3. Junior Environment Minister Jane Kennedy resigns from UK government
4. German crude steel output rose 5% m/m in May, biggest monthly increase since February 2006
5. Lithuanian FinMin: Pressures on currency peg from c/a deficit are dissipating
6. S&P lowers Republic of Ireland sovereign debt rating to AA from AA+, outlook negative
7. German April manufacturing orders flat m/m, in line with median forecast

The USD has continued where it left off Friday, seeing across the board strength this morning. The USD is being bolstered by surging treasury yields, anticipation of early-ish US official rate hike and a rise in risk aversion with stocks, oil, copper all down today.
While the greenback prospers, the euro has come under increased across the board pressure. EUR/JPY is down at 136.40 from around 137.50, while EUR/GBP is down at .8730 from an early .8780.
The euro has been hit by a number of factors, among them ongoing worries surrounding the Baltic states, aforementioned heightened risk aversion, deteriorating technical outlook, and the S&P downgrade of Ireland’s sovereign debt.
EUR/USD started of around 1.3980 but was soon drifting lower. Sources reported buy orders lined up at 1.3900 and then 1.3885/90 (including China at this latter level) and they did absorb the selling pressure for awhile. But when the 21 dma at 1.3878 gave out sell stops were triggered accelerating the slippage.
The release of better than expected euro zone sentix data (see above) did nothing to lift the pairing, which in itself was probably a good indicator of further losses to come. They duly came when the news hit the wires that S&P had lowered Ireland’s sovereign debt rating, sending the pairing quickly to a 1.3806 session lower before some recovery to 1.3845 at writing.
Cable has given up about big figure on the day, presently at 1.5855. Political uncertainty surrounding PM Brown’s future continues to weigh, although the pairing took the news that Junior Environment Minister Jane Kennedy had resigned from the Goverment in it’s stride.
USD/JPY has seen good interest from a US investment house to buy dips in the 98.20/30 area and we’re presently up at 98.55, a touch firmer on the day. High US yields will be lending the pairing good underpinning, despite the heightened risk aversion seen today which has tended to support the jpy as it’s safe haven premium comes into play.

Can you believe it. 1 Hr bullish Divergence now.