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  • #161
  • Oct 20, 2005 4:00am Oct 20, 2005 4:00am
Congestion is just another term for price consolidation or ranging... Your chart and Narafa's show similar setups.

Quoting habeeb
Hi Iso,

what do you mean by "congestion"?

Thanx
Habeeb
  • #162
  • Oct 20, 2005 9:01am Oct 20, 2005 9:01am
Quoting Isotonic
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the EURUSD the most heavily traded instrument across all markets around the globe right now?

Jun 05-present
Ya I think you are right, the EUR/USD is the most heavily traded instrument in the world.

GOD, I think I will have to go live in the US or Eurpoe

Thanks,

Nader
  • #163
  • Oct 20, 2005 3:03pm Oct 20, 2005 3:03pm
Quote
Congestion is just another term for price consolidation or ranging... Your chart and Narafa's show similar setups.

Thanx Iso.

This chart is a bit late. Ascending triangle on 4hr. Shows nicely on the hourly too.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=1575&stc=1
Attached Image
Keeping it Simple
  • #164
  • Oct 21, 2005 2:31am Oct 21, 2005 2:31am
I have read that trend continuetion/reversal patterns (wedge, triangle, wimpel, flag) are more relliable if built on indicators (RSI, Stoch)

thanks
kiss the trend
  • #165
  • Oct 21, 2005 4:21am Oct 21, 2005 4:21am
where have you read that? i'm not saying you're wrong but i find them more reliable if they are built on price!

my main gripe with a lot of these indicators is that since they are just functions of price they just lag price action and they are prone to "curve fitting" too much.

also alot of these indicators were developed at a time and place outside forex - in the late 70s and early 80s on equities and were just dumped on forex without much regard for differences.

have you backtested them on your charts thoroughly? how do they work? do you understand all the formulae? where do they work? where do they fail? how can they be optimised? how many people do all this for the pairs they trade? i don't for one! i don't even for bollinger bands but i have a basic understanding of them and how they work but i will admit to doing very little of the above (doh!)

they also distract many from just learning to focus on reading the tape which is perhaps the most important indicator of all.

as always i always leave the door to being completely wrong (i do try and think in probabilities after all ) and maybe i just don't "get" all these fancy widgets at all!!
Quoting fx-trader777
I have read that trend continuetion/reversal patterns (wedge, triangle, wimpel, flag) are more relliable if built on indicators (RSI, Stoch)

thanks
  • #166
  • Oct 21, 2005 5:06am Oct 21, 2005 5:06am
Quoting Isotonic
where have you read that? i'm not saying you're wrong but i find them more reliable if they are built on price!

my main gripe with a lot of these indicators is that since they are just functions of price they just lag price action and they are prone to "curve fitting" too much.

also alot of these indicators were developed at a time and place outside forex - in the late 70s and early 80s on equities and were just dumped on forex without much regard for differences.

have you backtested them on your charts thoroughly? how do they work? do you understand all the formulae? where do they work? where do they fail? how can they be optimised? how many people do all this for the pairs they trade? i don't for one! i don't even for bollinger bands but i have a basic understanding of them and how they work but i will admit to doing very little of the above (doh!)

they also distract many from just learning to focus on reading the tape which is perhaps the most important indicator of all.

as always i always leave the door to being completely wrong (i do try and think in probabilities after all ) and maybe i just don't "get" all these fancy widgets at all!!
I had book in Russian about forex. Frankly speaking I do not use them at all. Of course I have studied forumulas that they contain. As for suggestion why they are more reliable to built chart patterns I read that they are weighted action of price, express relative relations between bulls and bears rathar than simply price action. I have not analyzed if it is right, But I can find cases when stoch was creating continuetion triangle and prices not but then broke triangle to the directon of the trend.
kiss the trend
  • #167
  • Oct 31, 2005 1:29pm Oct 31, 2005 1:29pm
I think we have interesting one here. Head&shoudlers on monthly chart. It intersected 21 moving average and has just formed right shoulder.

Will we see 1.13 again?

any comments?
Attached Image
kiss the trend
  • #168
  • Oct 31, 2005 2:00pm Oct 31, 2005 2:00pm
Double bottom on weekly chart. I think it's still a bit too early for the head-n-shoulders on the monthly. I think we'll have to test 1.2900 area first.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=1821&stc=1
Attached Image
Keeping it Simple
  • #169
  • Oct 31, 2005 3:38pm Oct 31, 2005 3:38pm
How do you do that highlight thing on MT4?

Quoting habeeb
Double bottom on weekly chart. I think it's still a bit too early for the head-n-shoulders on the monthly. I think we'll have to test 1.2900 area first.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=1821&stc=1
  • #170
  • Oct 31, 2005 4:24pm Oct 31, 2005 4:24pm
Under the "Insert" menu, choose "Shapes".
Keeping it Simple
  • #171
  • Nov 1, 2005 2:41am Nov 1, 2005 2:41am
Thanks man, I know Jim does something similar with his charts. I might choose a different colour though!

Quoting habeeb
Under the "Insert" menu, choose "Shapes".
  • #172
  • Nov 1, 2005 11:56am Nov 1, 2005 11:56am
1st Novemeber 2005, 1 pm EST.

Weekly chart - EURUSD seems to show a double bottom right at the intersection with the long term trendline and exactly at the last swing's 61.8 fib retracement.

Perhaps it's time for EUR to resume its way up in the long term frame?
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  • #173
  • Nov 1, 2005 12:45pm Nov 1, 2005 12:45pm
Hi, Isotonic,

I expect Eur/usd it shoot up and down sharply in both directions; before and after FOMC. If the first shot is up, stop & orders will probably be triggered and then if a down follows, time to enter a new trade might not be sufficient or being suspended by the broker. How should one plan to benefit both the directions.
Right now it is 1.2000 Let's assume I will go long right here. Just before FOMC it shoots up to 1.2025-45 It does not break 1.2050. I will book the profit and wish to go short between 1.2025-45. and target 1.1910.
I tried a few time on last second trade and most of the time my entry is refused by my broker because of too much trafic at the same time.

Do not need to reply right away. In a few minutes the action is going to begin. See about it tomorrow or some other time - obviously - only if you
find the pleasure in answering.
Thanks
  • #174
  • Nov 3, 2005 3:50pm Nov 3, 2005 3:50pm
Looks like a head-n-shoulders formation on the weekly.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=1931&stc=1
Attached Image
Keeping it Simple
  • #175
  • Nov 3, 2005 3:59pm Nov 3, 2005 3:59pm
We've reached a good support at 1.1934. Went long at 1.1942 with 10 pip stop just to grab a few pips. Expecting a rally to 1.1980-85 before heading down to test lows again. DBHLC also on daily, so tomorrow will be looking to go short. Market might be boring till NFP release.

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...tid=1933&stc=1
Attached Image
Keeping it Simple
  • #176
  • Nov 5, 2005 1:35am Nov 5, 2005 1:35am
Do we have right shoulder On monthly chart? very important level is 1.1735 38 fib and 44 EMA. If price intersect it we will have 1.1400 soon.
Attached Image
kiss the trend
  • #177
  • Nov 6, 2005 9:57am Nov 6, 2005 9:57am

Long term perspective... down 1.14ish
Rgds..http://img490.imageshack.us/img490/7296/longterm5bi.png
  • #178
  • Nov 6, 2005 10:05am Nov 6, 2005 10:05am
I had expected that EURUSD - when breaking through the 1,19 support - would fall with impressive volume. But I noticed that volume last Friday was modest, to say the least. Where 8,000 is average for a normal trading day, volume was down to 4,906 last Friday.

Does this fact strengthen the direction of the EURUSD (steep fall despite of small volume), or do we have to be careful for the direction of the currency pair on Monday?
  • #179
  • Nov 8, 2005 1:15pm Nov 8, 2005 1:15pm
Let's go long at EUR/USD if pair closes at pin bar.
kiss the trend
  • #180
  • Nov 8, 2005 3:11pm Nov 8, 2005 3:11pm
Today, I came across the following remarkable forecast for the EURUSD pair for year's end. To me, it seems completely contrary to the current EURUSD trend. As I have to abide Merlin's rule #2 (only 6 posts ), I shall not mention the source.

It says:

Remember the primary principle in all markets, financial markets, food markets, etc. when everybody is selling/buying something that seems to be good enough…sooner rather than later, they start buying/selling it because its price has changed and they can earn a profit from it. When everyone is buying USD and there is no one left to buy USD (except me and my clients), there is only one way for the USD to go, and that is DOWN THE ROAD!
By taking into account this kind of strategy we are certainly going against the trend, specially one that seems difficult to break (....). I am willing to put my money where my mouth is, even though Tom Hobson thinks EUR/USD will arrive at 1.1600 where it will launch itself towards 1.2400 and above.

By managing our strategy you will be able to endure this kinds of hits without any significant pain at all, we could even watch how the EUR/USD falls towards 1.1250 and still keep buying at strategic points to latter on gain enormous strength with the upside and place yet another winning month to our calendars!
Remember last week when I told you that we could actually see a fall down, well guys, here it is… the question now is this, will it continue towards 1.16? maybe so, but my money is on 1.2400 for years end!

What are the odds? How great do you, experts, estimate the chance that these words will come true?
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