Guys, any thoughts on the Aussie? The weekly shows big rejection with a close back under 80. a move back down to about 75 on a break down of the weekly bar?
- #1,848
- Edited 9:52am Jun 6, 2009 9:27am | Edited 9:52am
Hi everybody!
I just wanted to share the following thoughts:
I was wondering if it was worth to spend my week-end trying to backtest different methods for trading PB, OB, IB etc.
I mean: moving quickly to BE after some pips, setting SL at the end of bars, or at 50% retracement, or at 61%, or leaving half position to enter at 50% retracement, etc..
Obviously ther are a lot of different combinations: I recently saw in J16 thread an Excel file with the results of different entries and exits (sorry I can not find it now).
The problem, as most of you already have found, is that you can not tell your EA to backtest your method because entries are not a science, but an art. We don't take all PB (if we could define what a PB is to our computer), because we take in consideration PPZ, trend, noise, etc.
With other sistems you can tell you computer to: "take all daily bars whith a higher open than the close of day before and with MACD slope bigger than ....etc and then etc... from say January 1990"
We can not do that with this method.
So I would have to do it by hand, checking not only daily bars (if I am trading daily TF) but also lower TF, the only way to know what happened inside the bars.
Then, a couple of thoughts came to me:
I just wanted to share the following thoughts:
I was wondering if it was worth to spend my week-end trying to backtest different methods for trading PB, OB, IB etc.
I mean: moving quickly to BE after some pips, setting SL at the end of bars, or at 50% retracement, or at 61%, or leaving half position to enter at 50% retracement, etc..
Obviously ther are a lot of different combinations: I recently saw in J16 thread an Excel file with the results of different entries and exits (sorry I can not find it now).
The problem, as most of you already have found, is that you can not tell your EA to backtest your method because entries are not a science, but an art. We don't take all PB (if we could define what a PB is to our computer), because we take in consideration PPZ, trend, noise, etc.
With other sistems you can tell you computer to: "take all daily bars whith a higher open than the close of day before and with MACD slope bigger than ....etc and then etc... from say January 1990"
We can not do that with this method.
So I would have to do it by hand, checking not only daily bars (if I am trading daily TF) but also lower TF, the only way to know what happened inside the bars.
Then, a couple of thoughts came to me:
- Someone, with large experience, may have already found the most profitable system: you just have to ask for it. Or,
- There's no "best system": it all depends on how prices behave, so what could be the best last month could be beaten by a different strategy, so just choose one you may feel confortable with and get stuck to it.
Thank you for your suggestions.
Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
- #1,852
- Jun 6, 2009 8:45pm Jun 6, 2009 8:45pm
A quick post to say happy birthday Clockwork 71 and thanks for all the work you do on here and over on the J16 private forum. I hope you had a great day and that you have a terrific year ahead.
Your birthday is 5 days after mine (I'm 1973)...
Your birthday is 5 days after mine (I'm 1973)...
- #1,853
- Jun 6, 2009 11:38pm Jun 6, 2009 11:38pm
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2007 | 7,685 Posts
@CW,
thanks for the priceless knowledge u have provided for us. but i need a little help, about the s/r do i draw them at the .50/00 zones or the exact price the s/r are on the chart?i am still learning though but not a novice. i will appreciate your response.
thanks
For example, look at USD/CAD several weeks back. It broke up to about 1.3060, but was rejected. In fact....that means the 1.30 AREA held. It's a ZONE, never forget that. It's rare when it's like a brick wall.
- #1,854
- Jun 6, 2009 11:39pm Jun 6, 2009 11:39pm
- | Commercial User | Joined May 2007 | 7,685 Posts
A quick post to say happy birthday Clockwork 71 and thanks for all the work you do on here and over on the J16 private forum. I hope you had a great day and that you have a terrific year ahead.
Your birthday is 5 days after mine (I'm 1973)...
Thanks Tia
- #1,855
- Jun 7, 2009 6:33am Jun 7, 2009 6:33am
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,036 Posts
A quick post to say happy birthday Clockwork 71 and thanks for all the work you do on here and over on the J16 private forum. I hope you had a great day and that you have a terrific year ahead.
Your birthday is 5 days after mine (I'm 1973)...
Just want to point the importance of having plans, like this one, from one month and a half ago.
Nomask, żdid you keep your trade till the end?
Good sight!
i started to think maybe i can deal with losing but i don't think i can deal with winning yet...people get scared when they lose but sometimes i get scared when I'm wining...
what a bummer,eh?
p.s:i can also see that weak part of me through my trading records..
i had %4,26 net gain in the last one and half month...
it says %73 winning but avg.winning is %0,61 and avg.losing is %0,60 ...its no good yet..
- #1,860
- Jun 8, 2009 5:15am Jun 8, 2009 5:15am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
just stopping by... Belated Happy birthday clockwork71 