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Silent Service Method

  • #1,841
  • Jun 5, 2009 3:48pm Jun 5, 2009 3:48pm
Guys, any thoughts on the Aussie? The weekly shows big rejection with a close back under 80. a move back down to about 75 on a break down of the weekly bar?
  • #1,842
  • Jun 5, 2009 5:12pm Jun 5, 2009 5:12pm
Quoting clockwork71
A theme is developing here: GBP/CHF
Hi CW,
First, I must say thank you for keeping this thread as well as for posting such interesting audio files in your blog.
Now, my question.
I clearly see an oportunity in GBP/CHF, but, as happens to me quite often, I wouldn't be confortable till PA crosses below the thick TL that has been pushing price up till today.
How do you solve this issues: clear PA against clear TL not crossed yet?
Thank you!

Edit: just wanted to add the aditional FIB confluence at 61.8 if you take the last high.
Attached Image
Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #1,843
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:07pm Jun 5, 2009 6:07pm
Quoting eswap0
Hi CW,
First, I must say thank you for keeping this thread as well as for posting such interesting audio files in your blog.
Now, my question.
I clearly see an oportunity in GBP/CHF, but, as happens to me quite often, I wouldn't be confortable till PA crosses below the thick TL that has been pushing price up till today.
How do you solve this issues: clear PA against clear TL not crossed yet?
Thank you!

Edit: just wanted to add the aditional FIB confluence at 61.8 if you take the last high.
I short it anyways. To be honest, I would fully expect trouble at that line. But....if it goes through, watch - it will go back up to retest that trend line later. If and when that happens, you could go short there. (Could be several days later.) It's a little more conservative approach, and perfectly acceptable.

CW
  • #1,844
  • Jun 5, 2009 6:56pm Jun 5, 2009 6:56pm
Quoting maninjapan
Guys, any thoughts on the Aussie? The weekly shows big rejection with a close back under 80. a move back down to about 75 on a break down of the weekly bar?
Agreed. Nice pin bar on weekly chart close to 61.8 fib line and S/R line. A break below weekly pin should warrant a short position I think.

CW ... does this logic seem to be correct?
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Enter Signature
  • #1,845
  • Jun 5, 2009 10:59pm Jun 5, 2009 10:59pm
Quoting SquareRoot
Agreed. Nice pin bar on weekly chart close to 61.8 fib line and S/R line. A break below weekly pin should warrant a short position I think.

CW ... does this logic seem to be correct?

Actually, I am seeing this in on all three charts we are discussing at the moment: GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, and AUD/USD.

What do they all have in common? They rely on risk. This means next week could be a pullback in most markets. Gold.....stocks, etc.

I agree with this chart, yes.

CW
  • #1,846
  • Jun 6, 2009 4:12am Jun 6, 2009 4:12am
@CW,
thanks for the priceless knowledge u have provided for us. but i need a little help, about the s/r do i draw them at the .50/00 zones or the exact price the s/r are on the chart?i am still learning though but not a novice. i will appreciate your response.
thanks
  • #1,847
  • Edited 7:02am Jun 6, 2009 6:44am | Edited 7:02am
Here's the chart about the setups we're discussing, with some personal opinion.

Edit: added EURCHF chart.
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  • #1,848
  • Edited 9:52am Jun 6, 2009 9:27am | Edited 9:52am
Hi everybody!
I just wanted to share the following thoughts:
I was wondering if it was worth to spend my week-end trying to backtest different methods for trading PB, OB, IB etc.
I mean: moving quickly to BE after some pips, setting SL at the end of bars, or at 50% retracement, or at 61%, or leaving half position to enter at 50% retracement, etc..
Obviously ther are a lot of different combinations: I recently saw in J16 thread an Excel file with the results of different entries and exits (sorry I can not find it now).
The problem, as most of you already have found, is that you can not tell your EA to backtest your method because entries are not a science, but an art. We don't take all PB (if we could define what a PB is to our computer), because we take in consideration PPZ, trend, noise, etc.
With other sistems you can tell you computer to: "take all daily bars whith a higher open than the close of day before and with MACD slope bigger than ....etc and then etc... from say January 1990"
We can not do that with this method.
So I would have to do it by hand, checking not only daily bars (if I am trading daily TF) but also lower TF, the only way to know what happened inside the bars.
Then, a couple of thoughts came to me:

 

  1. Someone, with large experience, may have already found the most profitable system: you just have to ask for it. Or,
  2. There's no "best system": it all depends on how prices behave, so what could be the best last month could be beaten by a different strategy, so just choose one you may feel confortable with and get stuck to it.

Thank you for your suggestions.

Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #1,849
  • Jun 6, 2009 10:03am Jun 6, 2009 10:03am
Quoting eswap0
Hi everybody!
I just wanted to share the following thoughts:
I was wondering if it was worth to spend my week-end trying to backtest different methods for trading PB, OB, IB etc.
I mean: moving quickly to BE after some pips, setting SL at the end of bars, or at 50% retracement, or at 61%, or leaving half position to enter at 50% retracement, etc..
Obviously ther are a lot of different combinations: I recently...
Testing different strategies does more than just find the most profitable one. By going through lots of trades yourself and testing each of them with different strategies, you learn what is good/bad about each strategy as well as what you feel comfortable with and what drives you crazy. You don't get this information if someone simply tells you which one is the best.
That being said, I believe it completely depends on the individual. You have to trade in your comfort zone. If you are uncomfortable being in a drawdown, then you will not want to wait to get to 1 or 2R before moving to B/E. If you like to have lots of winners, regardless of how large they are, then you'll want to take some off at the first PPZ, regardless of R:R.

You might know which type of trader you are, in which case you can test various strategies that fit your comfort level. If you don't know which type of trader you are, then I would suggest demo trading for a month taking quick profits and then another month waiting till you are in substantial profit before moving to B/E and holding the trade longer for multiple R's... This can be applied to many other strategy variables, such as entering on a retrace, splitting up exit orders, intraday trading, scaling out of exits (profit and/or loss)...

I've done quite a bit of exit strategy testing if you care to look. Some of it is located in the James16 chart thread, located here>
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26123
Take it for what it's worth - they are trades I took that you may/may not have taken...

Josh
  • #1,850
  • Edited 3:58pm Jun 6, 2009 10:21am | Edited 3:58pm
Quoting Jduester
I've done quite a bit of exit strategy testing if you care to look. Some of it is located in the James16 chart thread, located here>
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=26123
Take it for what it's worth - they are trades I took that you may/may not have taken...

Josh
Thanks Josh.
Your post is the one I was meaning: I am going to study it carefully.
And probably will begin to record my trades writing down "what would have happended if I..."
Think that your comments about "the style I must feel confortable with" are the key.
Have a nice WE.

EDIT: i just found this post which might be helpfull for those worried about the best strategy, like me.
Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #1,851
  • Jun 6, 2009 4:10pm Jun 6, 2009 4:10pm
Just want to point the importance of having plans, like this one, from one month and a half ago.
Nomask, żdid you keep your trade till the end?
Good sight!
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Trading: the skill of avoiding trades
  • #1,852
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:45pm Jun 6, 2009 8:45pm
A quick post to say happy birthday Clockwork 71 and thanks for all the work you do on here and over on the J16 private forum. I hope you had a great day and that you have a terrific year ahead.

Your birthday is 5 days after mine (I'm 1973)...
  • #1,853
  • Jun 6, 2009 11:38pm Jun 6, 2009 11:38pm
Quoting forexed
@CW,
thanks for the priceless knowledge u have provided for us. but i need a little help, about the s/r do i draw them at the .50/00 zones or the exact price the s/r are on the chart?i am still learning though but not a novice. i will appreciate your response.
thanks
I have found that you are better off drawing them on the 50 and 00 areas....with the understanding that most "areas" are larger than just the line.

For example, look at USD/CAD several weeks back. It broke up to about 1.3060, but was rejected. In fact....that means the 1.30 AREA held. It's a ZONE, never forget that. It's rare when it's like a brick wall.
  • #1,854
  • Jun 6, 2009 11:39pm Jun 6, 2009 11:39pm
Quoting TiaForex
A quick post to say happy birthday Clockwork 71 and thanks for all the work you do on here and over on the J16 private forum. I hope you had a great day and that you have a terrific year ahead.

Your birthday is 5 days after mine (I'm 1973)...

Thanks Tia
  • #1,855
  • Jun 7, 2009 6:33am Jun 7, 2009 6:33am
Quoting TiaForex
A quick post to say happy birthday Clockwork 71 and thanks for all the work you do on here and over on the J16 private forum. I hope you had a great day and that you have a terrific year ahead.

Your birthday is 5 days after mine (I'm 1973)...
Well, happy belated birthday to you too!
  • #1,856
  • Jun 7, 2009 10:03am Jun 7, 2009 10:03am
Happy Birsthday!

  • #1,857
  • Jun 7, 2009 1:26pm Jun 7, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting Jduester
Testing different strategies does more than just find the most profitable one....
Very interesting study and thanks for bringing this up here, I think it will help at least a few people focusing on exiting rules at this point in the game such as myself. There's different ways to manage the trades you are in, good or bad, and one just has to pick the winning one that works well with his or her own mindset.
  • #1,858
  • Jun 8, 2009 2:32am Jun 8, 2009 2:32am
Happy bday to you CW,you are appreciated.

Quoting clockwork71
Thanks Tia
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #1,859
  • Jun 8, 2009 2:51am Jun 8, 2009 2:51am
Quoting eswap0
Just want to point the importance of having plans, like this one, from one month and a half ago.
Nomask, żdid you keep your trade till the end?
Good sight!
Although i made nice profit on usdcad by re-shorting at some certain price actions i didn't hold my very first trade all the way down to my ultimate target..this is almost only major thing i need to discipline myself on.."letting profitable trades run"..that would have been 7 or 8x profit of what i risked initially..
i started to think maybe i can deal with losing but i don't think i can deal with winning yet...people get scared when they lose but sometimes i get scared when I'm wining...
what a bummer,eh?

p.s:i can also see that weak part of me through my trading records..
i had %4,26 net gain in the last one and half month...
it says %73 winning but avg.winning is %0,61 and avg.losing is %0,60 ...its no good yet..
  • #1,860
  • Jun 8, 2009 5:15am Jun 8, 2009 5:15am
just stopping by... Belated Happy birthday clockwork71
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