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  • #106,921
  • Jun 6, 2009 11:11am Jun 6, 2009 11:11am
Quoting F.x.
You're welcome.

I'm not sure I understand your plan here... It seems to me that you want to place some longs, and then if price moves down you will add some more longs, and continue doing so. You are doing this because you believe price will move up from the current area, and will not ever get below 1.25 (or at least not before it goes much higher than the current area.)

That sounds great... but... it begs the question... what if price does go below 1.25?

Perhaps there are some aspects to your plan that I'm not understanding.
Thanks for your views, no I want to place 1 big long position, so big that if I'm wrong it would kill my account under 1.2500 a level which I think we will not reach for years to come. Its not like 5abi said a feeling it could be reached rather a level where I give up, wine a little take my losses and never look to forex again.
But as 5abi said, maybe its wiser to play the medium term on which I feel comfortable with max 300-400 pips SL levels.
I'm trying to play the market because I have other USD-investments where I would like to hedge the USD-risk and maybe to earn some extra's with shorts at appropreate levels.
But fundamental bias on a weak USD in coming years dominates my descisions and not the pure market play aup or down.

But what I hate is having a good feeling and still losing like last friday with the H&S on the H4, just the recovery well above its break at 1.4100 put me on my wrong foot and I killed the position with loss, while it could have been a nice profit.

So my conclusion is:
1. Long at the expected botom of a medium uptrend (now) if PA downwards get in troubles at those levels
2. Close Long and get Short at the top of the medium uptrend if PA upwards get in troubles at those levels.
3. No positions on negative breaks of medium term uptrend or when medium term trend is descending.

Would that be a proper thing to do within my views?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #106,922
  • Jun 6, 2009 11:26am Jun 6, 2009 11:26am
Definitely # 1 is the way to go. Many will also agree with # 2, but then stop need to be real tight. Not sure at all aboot #3.

Agreed on a fundamentally weak USD. But how weak will it get is just a guesstimate at best..the US does not want too weak a dollar, neither does Eurozone members as a very weak dollar hurts their exports to US. What would you say, based on your understanding, the fair value of an Euro is? 1.3500-1.4000?

Whatever and how so ever it turns out to be, it does not impact me as a trader to make money off it. I can adapt to these fundamental changes, right? What I dread most is inactivity. It has to go up (or come down)-that is all really matters

Good Trading!

Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks for your views, no I want to place 1 big long position, so big that if I'm wrong it would kill my account under 1.2500 a level which I think we will not reach for years to come. Its not like 5abi said a feeling it could be reached rather a level where I give up, wine a little take my losses and never look to forex again.
But as 5abi said, maybe its wiser to play the medium term on which I feel comfortable with max 300-400 pips SL levels.
I'm trying to play the market because I have other USD-investments where I would like to hedge the USD-risk...
Its all in the mind.
  • #106,923
  • Jun 6, 2009 11:45am Jun 6, 2009 11:45am
Quoting 5abi
Definitely # 1 is the way to go. Many will also agree with # 2, but then stop need to be real tight. Not sure at all aboot #3.

Agreed on a fundamentally weak USD. But how weak will it get is just a guesstimate at best..the US does not want too weak a dollar, neither does Eurozone members as a very weak dollar hurts their exports to US. What would you say, based on your understanding, the fair value of an Euro is? 1.3500-1.4000?

Whatever and how so ever it turns out to be, it does not impact me as a trader to make money off it. I can adapt to...
Thanks, a fair value of an Euro I would not know but looking at those weirds like Bernanke and Geigner with their helicopters spraying US-dollars, I'm sure its more than 2.0000 maybe 3.0000
I'm also sure they want (but realize they can't say it) the USD down inflating them out of the crisis. I agree Europe does not want that, but I'm afraid they can not do anything about it. Look at the Chinees buying commodities instead of USD, they also will get out of USD but realize they can't say it. Problem concerning currencies (in my view) is what is the alternative for the USD. EUR is I think better if and when Germany keeps CB of printing money in Europe also and I think they will not make the same mistakes the US does.......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #106,924
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:00pm Jun 6, 2009 12:00pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks, a fair value of an Euro I would not know but looking at those weirds like Bernanke and Geigner with their helicopters spraying US-dollars, I'm sure its more than 2.0000 maybe 3.0000
I'm also sure they want (but realize they can't say it) the USD down inflating them out of the crisis. I agree Europe does not want that, but I'm afraid they can not do anything about it. Look at the Chinees buying commodities instead of USD, they also will get out of USD but realize they can't say it. Problem concerning currencies (in my view) is what is the...

Be careful bulls they're already talking about hiking rates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aJEAvmZhIsyI
  • #106,925
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:04pm Jun 6, 2009 12:04pm
Quoting stewrigh
Be careful bulls they're already talking about hiking rates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aJEAvmZhIsyI
i am a little confused about this..

if increase, this means things are doing good and as per previous. euro should increase.. however things in euro are not doing so good.. so folks should go to dollar..

hmmmm
  • #106,926
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:10pm Jun 6, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting stewrigh
Be careful bulls they're already talking about hiking rates.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aJEAvmZhIsyI
no worry, its too late.......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #106,927
  • Jun 6, 2009 12:55pm Jun 6, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting 5abi
A medium term trade warrants a stop no larger that 300-400 pips. When you talk about a 1450 pip stop, then that IMHO it is a unsaid conviction that you believe it may go down to that level, in which case I would rather be short than long ATM.

PS# I do agree about your reading of price. It is still primarily up.
I do agree with you , good post. We are in down trend in a greater up one still.
fontu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1.gif Size: 18 KB
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #106,928
  • Jun 6, 2009 1:29pm Jun 6, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks for your views, no I want to place 1 big long position, so big that if I'm wrong it would kill my account under 1.2500 a level which I think we will not reach for years to come. Its not like 5abi said a feeling it could be reached rather a level where I give up, wine a little take my losses and never look to forex again.

But fundamental bias on a weak USD in coming years dominates my descisions and not the pure market play aup or down.

Would that be a proper thing to do within my views?
You seem to think that it is highly improbable for the EU to reach it's low as before.

Before you follow your feeling in an attempt to hit it big consider this:
The EU futures had 3 big weekly swings down so far from the 25th April 2008 top.
Swing 1 was 13.1% decline ending 12 Sep 2008, 20.9 range
Swing 2 was 17% decline ending 21 Nov 2008, 25.3 range
Swing 3 was 13.1% decline ending 6 Mar 2009, 19.7 range

Swings 1 took 8 weeks as did swing 2,. The last big swing took 11 weeks.

Now, it only takes a range drop of less than 19 (about 13%) for the EU to go below 1.2500 and if it happens do you think it would be a matter of weeks or years?
Look at how much the GU lost in a matter of days.
Hope that puts things into perspective.
While the EU has not taken out the recent swing high I put the probabilities of a drop below 1.2500 no worse than (well you figure it).
And, here is the thing, if you decide to average down or put it all in one go, I am fairly sure if it got to within 100 pips of 1.2500 you would probably feel so upset and afraid of it hitting your SL that you would close out the trade, and as so oftern happens, it would probably turn right up making you feel a sucker. Do you want to play that game?
  • #106,929
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:21pm Jun 6, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting Atlast
You seem to think that it is highly improbable for the EU to reach it's low as before.

Before you follow your feeling in an attempt to hit it big consider this:
The EU futures had 3 big weekly swings down so far from the 25th April 2008 top.
Swing 1 was 13.1% decline ending 12 Sep 2008, 20.9 range
Swing 2 was 17% decline ending 21 Nov 2008, 25.3 range
Swing 3 was 13.1% decline ending 6 Mar 2009, 19.7 range

Swings 1 took 8 weeks as did swing 2,. The last big swing took 11 weeks.

Now, it only takes a range drop of less than 19 (about 13%) for...
Atlast,
thanks for your warnings, I appreciate it a lot.
I'm not so good in timing that's the exact reason I'm exploring here, but have some succes in seeing big trends developing and this is one of them (I hope).
You're right in the situation you describe I would not be afraid but it would certainly making me feel a big sucker at 1.25 not 1.26 :-)
Thanks for yours and other advices, I will not target the 1.2500 as my final exit if it goes wrong, but rather try to play the medium trend as stated.
Had some theoretical succeses by applying simple strate lines on daily charts together with MACD on the weekly charts to define this medium trend, what would you think would be a good trend indicator for indicating medium to long term trends?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #106,930
  • Jun 6, 2009 2:58pm Jun 6, 2009 2:58pm


http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4009/newhs2.jpg
  • #106,931
  • Jun 6, 2009 3:11pm Jun 6, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting USD-Bear
I'm not so good in timing...
Have you tried scalping? A 10 pip sl as opposed to a 1000+ pip sl? If one studies price action one can identify trades with a high probability of success, as long as one is willing to limit one's profit expectation....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #106,932
  • Jun 6, 2009 5:52pm Jun 6, 2009 5:52pm
eurusd
Attached Image
  • #106,933
  • Jun 6, 2009 6:14pm Jun 6, 2009 6:14pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks for your views, no I want to place 1 big long position, so big that if I'm wrong it would kill my account under 1.2500 a level which I think we will not reach for years to come. Its not like 5abi said a feeling it could be reached rather a level where I give up, wine a little take my losses and never look to forex again.
But as 5abi said, maybe its wiser to play the medium term on which I feel comfortable with max 300-400 pips SL levels.
I'm trying to play the market because I have other USD-investments where I would like to hedge the USD-risk...

Sorry, but.... this is betting. It is not trading. You'd be better off putting all that money down on the roulette wheel.

Look at the charts I posted this week (thursday, I think...) The monthly chart, w/ the main upward trendline. Sure, we can go up from here... but first, we should approach, and even cross that line, to the south.... before coming back up (if ever...)
  • #106,934
  • Jun 6, 2009 6:17pm Jun 6, 2009 6:17pm
Guys... look at the 50% fib from the drop from 1.60 to 1.23. That is what I'll be playing.

Sure, we could spike up a bit from here, even to 1.44... but then, I expect we'll drop pretty hard. This even lines up w/ the channel theories... but I'm playing it only based on one fib and one trendline (thanks to Gatorinla for his mega blue TL...)

Peace
  • #106,935
  • Jun 6, 2009 7:13pm Jun 6, 2009 7:13pm
Less than 24 hours before trading resumes and no GAP talk yet?
Amazing!
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #106,936
  • Jun 6, 2009 7:28pm Jun 6, 2009 7:28pm
1) Fair Value for Euro--- Not sure how you come to your numbers of 2.000 to 3.000. From a fundamental, non speculative view, fair value is somewhere between 1.30 and 1.33. This is calculated by the value of US gold reserves vs. all EU country gold reserves. There is some debate on how this gold in some of the EU countries is valued and reported, hence the 1.30-1.33 range. Any price movement above or below these is based upon speculation. We are all free to speculate however we wish, but it is still speculation.

2) Big position Long--below 1.25 would wipe you out---- There is nothing wrong with gambling, millions do it every day and the world seems to keep going around. As long as you have mentally already lost that money in your account and you can afford to do so, I wish you well in your quest. Nothing wrong with swinging for the fence with a little disposable income. If, however, losing that money in your account will cause you pain--- then please reconsider. In the short term weak USD is bad for many players around the world, China not the least among them.

All the best to you.....
  • #106,937
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:14pm Jun 6, 2009 8:14pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Less than 24 hours before trading resumes and no GAP talk yet?
Amazing!
For your entertainment.

Small gap

http://www.killsometime.com/Pictures/images/Pic1320.jpg

Big Gap

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1040/...dd4cd9.jpg?v=0

500 pip gap

http://wp.itsnature.org/wp-content/Grand_Canyon6.jpg

The Gap

https://www.thankyou.com/images/rewa...ogo%20high.jpg

Very very tradable gap

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_VaTKkTYQAQ4/Se...2/gap-tits.jpg
Not all sins are created equal
  • #106,938
  • Jun 6, 2009 10:08pm Jun 6, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting Jay Walker
For your entertainment. a very tradable gap

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_VaTKkTYQAQ4/Se...2/gap-tits.jpg
Thank you so much, I really like the 500 pip GAP.
I have a GAP piccture that I can't post here. I would be banned.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #106,939
  • Jun 6, 2009 10:12pm Jun 6, 2009 10:12pm
Quoting Atlast
You seem to think that it is highly improbable for the EU to reach it's low as before.

Before you follow your feeling in an attempt to hit it big consider this:
The EU futures had 3 big weekly swings down...

Swings 1 took 8 weeks as did swing 2,. The last big swing took 11 weeks.

Now, it only takes a range drop of less than 19 (about 13%) for the EU to go below 1.2500 and if it happens do you think it would be a matter of weeks or years?...
Attached Image


Astonishingly Excellent post...

All the more stunning to find it here on this thread where it seems the 'fad du jour' lately has been to Dummy Down to the lowest common denominator...

Well done!! Seriously...
Attached Image


Along the lines of what you're saying to which I completely agree altho I'd never be able to state it in such an elegantly technical fashion as I'm better at pictures than math... you might find this old post from last September to be of interest in light of subsequent events.

I NEVER dreamed at the time we'd see 2000 pips below the current price at posting, just getting back to the chart lows seemed a stretch at the time.

I'm much more flexible these days. Again, very well done...
FUBAR...
  • #106,940
  • Jun 6, 2009 10:21pm Jun 6, 2009 10:21pm
I am in El Paso TX at the moment. A few hours ago I was in east EP and went into a grocery story to buy some basics, water, fruit and ready to eat chicken wings.
I tried my credit card ...not accepted, debit card ... not accepted. Then I tried to pay with a $20 bill.
They couldn't give me change for my $5.56 charge.
I talked to the manager, and this lady told me that they don't handle cash very well because 95% of their customers pay with food stamps and the other 5% have cash but maximum 5 dollar bills.
I got tears in my eyes, I didn't know about it, that this kind of poverty could exist in the US.
I ended up giving them the $20 bill without change. Now I'm a hero there.
This is sad!
And we are throwing in huge amounts of dollars in the currency market just because we want more.
It's a strange world.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
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