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  • #106,901
  • Jun 6, 2009 1:03am Jun 6, 2009 1:03am
Quoting oldman
Hi! How many pips you guys made on yesterday NFP?
Winners collecively made 750,000 pips, losers lost one million pips, 250,000 went to brokers. Taxman is still unpaid.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #106,902
  • Jun 6, 2009 1:52am Jun 6, 2009 1:52am
lol chicky u r funny
  • #106,903
  • Edited 4:18am Jun 6, 2009 4:04am | Edited 4:18am
Quoting Jay Walker
Good to see you but...whatever happened to Craigslist?
Haven't had time for that yet, was too busy.
But I acomplished what I needed to do earlier than I thought, so now I am going to try to get my flight back on Saturday rather than Sunday without extra costs.
If that's not possible, who knows ............................

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #106,904
  • Jun 6, 2009 4:07am Jun 6, 2009 4:07am
Quoting Chicky
Winners collecively made 750,000 pips, losers lost one million pips, 250,000 went to brokers. Taxman is still unpaid.


I really love this one!
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #106,905
  • Jun 6, 2009 4:17am Jun 6, 2009 4:17am
Quoting KillerWhale
I currently have a long open, with s/l at be, but I'll close it maybe soon.
Actually we might go down quite a bit more.
I have a limit short open "Jacko Style" @ 1.4065 that expires a month from now.
Here is my post from June 3rd.
Well that one paid off good when I looked at my account Friday night. 92 pips.
I'm going to try to refine this. Entering just 20 pips under or above pivot S1 or R1.
Who knows.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #106,906
  • Edited 5:29am Jun 6, 2009 4:57am | Edited 5:29am
Quoting F.x.
There are the two possibilities I see on the monthly chart. As you may know, I often deal in generalities and not any specific math or numbers when trading (which is just fine if what you're trying to do is pick up the major trend.)

The first possibility shows us moving up from here and reaching new highs. Basically, we blow through this level and the next level (61% fib of drop from 1.60) and then past 1.60.

The second possibility shows a bounce down here from the 50% fib of the drop from 1.60 (see also chart #3 which we are still perfectly...
Thanks F.x. for this lesson,

must confess that with the overwelming negative fundamentals for the USD its troublesome for me to see both sides and ending up positive as a EUR/USD bull.
In general I'm seeing long, medium and short-term trends.
What I realized is that trading short-term trends is emotionally not my cup of tea. In the other side there is too much movement up and down for a strategy of going long with a very large SL and not doing anything.
So I'm considering the idea of going long atm with a SL of 1.2500 and only trying to trade the medium trend. I'm not sure yet if it is wise to have only long positions and none while medium trend is down, or playing the shorts too on medium trends.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #106,907
  • Jun 6, 2009 5:40am Jun 6, 2009 5:40am
Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks F.x. for this lesson,

must confess that with the overwelming negative fundamentals for the USD its troublesome for me to see both sides and ending up positive as a EUR/USD bull.
In general I'm seeing long, medium and short-term trends.
What I realized is that trading short-term trends is emotionally not my cup of tea. In the other side there is too much movement up and down for a strategy of going long with a very large SL and not doing anything.
So I'm considering the idea of going long atm with a SL of 1.2500 and only trying to trade the...
s/l 1.2500? thats more than 1400 pips away. IMHO I would play the shorts first to get closer to your s/l position.
And ending the week like we did, I'm sure you will get better chances of going short.
By the way, I'm from the Netherlands too, but I live in San Diego California.

Shamu
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #106,908
  • Jun 6, 2009 5:48am Jun 6, 2009 5:48am
Quoting KillerWhale
s/l 1.2500? thats more than 1400 pips away. IMHO I would play the shorts first to get closer to your s/l position.
And ending the week like we did, I'm sure you will get better chances of going short.
By the way, I'm from the Netherlands too, but I live in San Diego California.

Shamu
Yes Killerwhale it seems rediculous within this traders community but I do not think for one moment it will be reaching that area in fact as from current point I see PA only upwards, but I have to protect my account and 1.2500 would seem to me a level where I should reconsider the whole idea of being a USD-Bear....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #106,909
  • Jun 6, 2009 6:02am Jun 6, 2009 6:02am
Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks F.x. for this lesson,

must confess that with the overwelming negative fundamentals for the USD its troublesome for me to see both sides and ending up positive as a EUR/USD bull.
In general I'm seeing long, medium and short-term trends.
What I realized is that trading short-term trends is emotionally not my cup of tea. In the other side there is too much movement up and down for a strategy of going long with a very large SL and not doing anything.
So I'm considering the idea of going long atm with a SL of 1.2500 and only trying to trade...

You're welcome.

I'm not sure I understand your plan here... It seems to me that you want to place some longs, and then if price moves down you will add some more longs, and continue doing so. You are doing this because you believe price will move up from the current area, and will not ever get below 1.25 (or at least not before it goes much higher than the current area.)

That sounds great... but... it begs the question... what if price does go below 1.25?

Perhaps there are some aspects to your plan that I'm not understanding.
  • #106,910
  • Jun 6, 2009 6:09am Jun 6, 2009 6:09am
Quoting USD-Bear
Yes Killerwhale it seems rediculous within this traders community but I do not think for one moment it will be reaching that area in fact as from current point I see PA only upwards, but I have to protect my account and 1.2500 would seem to me a level where I should reconsider the whole idea of being a USD-Bear....
I think there could be a better plan...

I prefer not to be a bull or a bear... I like to think of both possibilities, and then I let the market tell me which one is happening. That way, I never have to guess, and I never have to worry about if I'm right or wrong.

In my recents examples, you can see that I think price will go down. So I will trade accordingly. But if it goes up, it only means that I chose the wrong thing, and now I can change my trades accordingly.

So you see, it really doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong. It only matters that I can see both possibilities, and then if the market shows me that I chose the wrong one (when my trades begin to lose) then I already know the reason and can make my next trades based on the other possibility that I had been considering.
  • #106,911
  • Jun 6, 2009 6:13am Jun 6, 2009 6:13am
Quoting F.x.
I think there could be a better plan...

I prefer not to be a bull or a bear... I like to think of both possibilities, and then I let the market tell me which one is happening. That way, I never have to guess, and I never have to worry about if I'm right or wrong.

In my recents examples, you can see that I think price will go down. So I will trade accordingly. But if it goes up, it only means that I chose the wrong thing, and now I can change my trades accordingly.

So you see, it really doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong. It only matters...
Later if I may, have to go away for a few hours, but please stay with me.....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #106,912
  • Jun 6, 2009 6:25am Jun 6, 2009 6:25am
Quoting knuckledrag
See if that works


I'm off to bed, Road trip in the AM
Thanks man. If you get my template you will be able to draw fibs both ways. here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=105820

i use 78.6 over 76.4 any reason why not?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Fibo.pdf   237 KB | 414 downloads
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #106,913
  • Jun 6, 2009 7:25am Jun 6, 2009 7:25am
Hello eur-usd people,
I've read this thread for more of 4 years so I know a lot of you by words. I was feeling like a thief or a "voyeur" as we say in french so I decided to subscribe and participate even though I am convinced that there is a big difference between trading and analyzing.
Anyway this is my first post.
My sentiment is bearish with a first goal around 1.35 but I'm looking for 1.29 if we have a confirmation of the bear signal.
I don't use stoploss in analyzis because my analyzis are in 4h or daily like in this graph. For sure I use it to trade but I'm trading in 5min and 15min.
At this time we still in an up-trend channel and maybe we get a bounce to the top of the channel. "Life is like a box of chocolates, you'll never know what you're going to get."
Sorry for my english, nobody's perfect.

JM
Attached Image
"I will walk before they make me run" K.Richards
  • #106,914
  • Jun 6, 2009 7:34am Jun 6, 2009 7:34am
Quoting Jm4x
Hello eur-usd people,
I've read this thread for more of 4 years so I know a lot of you by words. I was feeling like a thief or a "voyeur" as we say in french so I decided to subscribe and participate even though I am convinced that there is a big difference between trading and analyzing.
Anyway this is my first post.
My sentiment is bearish with a first goal around 1.35 but I'm looking for 1.29 if we have a confirmation of the bear signal.
I don't use stoploss in analyzis because my analyzis are in 4h or daily like in this graph. For sure...

thanx for ur participation. i am just 1 week old here on this forum and i think i have contributed more then a 10 year old FF member...hehehe
  • #106,915
  • Jun 6, 2009 7:43am Jun 6, 2009 7:43am
Quoting eaglestar
Thanks man. If you get my template you will be able to draw fibs both ways. here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=105820

i use 78.6 over 76.4 any reason why not?
No, I haven't studied the difference. I've been meaning to but other things keep coming up.

I've got to go. See you later
  • #106,916
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:00am Jun 6, 2009 8:00am
Quoting Jm4x
Hello eur-usd people,
I've read this thread for more of 4 years so I know a lot of you by words. I was feeling like a thief or a "voyeur" as we say in french so I decided to subscribe and participate even though I am convinced that there is a big difference between trading and analyzing.
Anyway this is my first post.
My sentiment is bearish with a first goal around 1.35 but I'm looking for 1.29 if we have a confirmation of the bear signal.
I don't use stoploss in analyzis because my analyzis are in 4h or daily like in this graph. For sure I use...
I couldn't agree with you more. There is a huge difference between trading and analyzing the market. I personally believe most of the difference have to do with a trader's mind set, anticipation, perception, and understanding of the market.

It's a lot easier to "predict" where the market may be heading, but a lot harder to actually trade your plan ... without the pychologicals getting in your head and "mucking up" your train-of-thought and the altering the trading plan at hand.

I found myself these days trying NOT to "over-think" my plannings and trade only what I see instead.

So welcome to FF!
  • #106,917
  • Jun 6, 2009 8:47am Jun 6, 2009 8:47am
What i see that (maybe i am wrong) the indications for 1H, 4H, D is short , for Week not confirm, for Monthly still up, also the pair still with up trend line (two trend lines in green arrow), the first one from March 2009 and the second one from April 2009 and those trends are the main trends of moving up from 1.2456, the last down was started after the pair touched the above up channel (red arrow), in the down move the pair stopped before it touch the fibo 23.6 (yellow arrow).

Maybe it will move down not much and up again, maybe it will continue moving down till 1.38 and 1.34

Gods know

Your advice please
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd3.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #106,918
  • Jun 6, 2009 9:36am Jun 6, 2009 9:36am
Your directional sense on all of these TFs is correct. However that may not help your trading much. The reason is that, and no offense here, if you are relatively new to trading, focus only on one TF. This is a common stumbling point for many that they look at too many Time frames. I mean if you trade on 1 hour charts then why would you really care what the monthly is doing and vice versa? If you "see" price going somewhere on a particular timeframe then stick to that TF.

Quoting Blackice
What i see that (maybe i am wrong) the indications for 1H, 4H, D is short , for Week not confirm, for Monthly still up, also the pair still with up trend line (two trend lines in green arrow), the first one from March 2009 and the second one from April 2009 and those trends are the main trends of moving up from 1.2456, the last down was started after the pair touched the above up channel (red arrow), in the down move the pair stopped before it touch the fibo 23.6 (yellow arrow).

Maybe it will move down not much and up again, maybe it will continue...
Its all in the mind.
  • #106,919
  • Jun 6, 2009 9:43am Jun 6, 2009 9:43am
A medium term trade warrants a stop no larger that 300-400 pips. When you talk about a 1450 pip stop, then that IMHO it is a unsaid conviction that you believe it may go down to that level, in which case I would rather be short than long ATM.

PS# I do agree about your reading of price. It is still primarily up.

Quoting USD-Bear
Thanks F.x. for this lesson,

must confess that with the overwelming negative fundamentals for the USD its troublesome for me to see both sides and ending up positive as a EUR/USD bull.
In general I'm seeing long, medium and short-term trends.
What I realized is that trading short-term trends is emotionally not my cup of tea. In the other side there is too much movement up and down for a strategy of going long with a very large SL and not doing anything.
So I'm considering the idea of going long atm with a SL of 1.2500 and only trying to trade the...
Its all in the mind.
  • #106,920
  • Jun 6, 2009 9:43am Jun 6, 2009 9:43am
Hi all,

My take on EU next week - enjoy.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1241
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