pabloski System

I was looking at 15M bars.

I suspect that if the bars repaint on one time frame, they will repaint on any time frame.
I may be wrong.

Indeed. StepChoppyBars tends to repaint on shorter timeframes like M1, M5 and M15. For longer timeframes like H1, H4, D1 bars generally dont repaint.

Cannot apply generalization here...

I can't see the indicator. Maybe was not attached due to viruses.
Paploski, can you repost the trendpower indicator.

I've been doing some testing of my own with this system using an Expert Advisor.

I've come to the following results.

1. It seems best setting for ATR channels indicator is 1.4,2.9,4.0
2. When setting s/l after first close, it is better to wait for the bar to close first. If bar closes higher (on buy) set s/l at breakeven, otherwise close trade at once
3. Wait for the last unit to close (below/above) green line (on buy/sell) at all times eliminating all complex rules with touching blue line etc.
4. My test showed (from 8/2004 to 12/2006) that there were only 4 trades that closed 2nd unit and then went to b/e. So I eliminated 2nd unit close and hold 2 last units as per rule 3.

in my tests after applying these rules results approximately doubled.

This was a test for GBPJPY.

After testing GBPJPY, we have decided to test EURJPY and GBPUSD to see if pabloski system is profitable for these pairs as well.

When we finished the first four months of testing EURJPY, we wanted to check the results and see if the stepchoppy indicator was repainting. We saw that most of the entry bar colours went one bar backward (ie. entry at 12:00 bar became an entry at 08:00 bar). Some of the entry bars went backward multiple bars (4/5 bars backward) and some of the entries were missed during the backtests and some of the entries shouldn't have been taken. After years of manual backtesting experience of Team Aphid, we have decided that this cannot be a mistake by us, and the conclusion was the indicator is repainting. We wanted to test GBPUSD as well to make sure of this situation and the indicator has repainted itself on this pair as well.

Now, the strange thing is that we have been keeping records of every bar colour of GBPJPY since April 9th and we check our backtest results posted on this thread twice everyday to see if the indicator repaints, and the colours are still 100% matching. So, the indicator repaints itself on EURJPY and GBPUSD, but does not repaint on GBPJPY. That's pretty weird, we think.

Another observation is that we used same broker, same server, same platform and same open/high/low/close prices, everything was the same bar by bar on two different computers, but the colours of the bars were different.

Our conclusion on this issue is that Stepchoppy indicator is not stable, but somehow it still did not repaint on GBPJPY and it is still stable on this pair only. We keep watching it on GBPJPY and if it repaints, we'll inform you asap.

ps. we only use 4hr time frame, not shorter ones.

I think it has to be happenstance that the GBP/JPY was not observed repainting.

The programing allows a bar to change color after close and I don't see how a particular pair could be exempt from that.

I've followed a lot of false leads on systems that looked great on a chart and they turned out to be repainting. This is nothing new.

Hi pabloski, our opinion is that it shouldn't repaint at all, otherwise backtest results will not be reliable.

There were complaints on other forum that this Stepchoppy indicator was first released but the thread owner/originator did not reply to those claims.

Anyway, we recommend everyone to watch this indicator on GBPJPY and see if it repaints previous bars before taking live trades.

When we are sure it is not repainting, we'll continue to improve and backtest this system with new rules and we'll share the results with you.

We agree with you how a particular pair could be exempt form that but it is the case for the time being. We are checking our backtest results since Jan. 2006 twice everyday on current GBPJPY chart and all entry and exit bar colours are still matching the test results. This means it didn't repaint YET, and we believe it will likely repaint, but we must be sure to claim that and we must see what we saw on other pairs.

Hello pabloski and thank you for the update!

There was an error in the indicator: unexpected ";". I've deleted it, it seems to be working but... Could you please just write your MQ4-text of the indicator right here in the message? It would be more real.

Thank you!

Hi and thanks for your ideas!

Can you explain this rule or show a chart?

!
Charts you can upload at www.imageshack.us and post links here
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Hi Guys,
I have been looking all day at 15M charts, to see if the bars repaints, but so far, it has not repainted. I am just looking for the big markets swings to enter into a position, especially after news trades, so far pablosky's system keeps giving me those profitable signals.
Today, 4/20 at 4.30am eastern time USA, I did a trade on GBP/JPY retail sales. Before the news, the price opened at 237.93, the bar before was acqua, then went down to 237.46 closing at 237.48 the bar closed red. Strong dowtrend signal was given, so I enter the next one at 237.49 after almost 50 pips down in 30M and 82 pips since the european markets open at 2:00 AM or 2:30 hours. So, it finally went down to 237.18, but I closed my 20 pips profit at 237.21 using my take a profit manager, beacuse it rebounds back so fast that I could not even have a chance to close it manually, and most important the bar did not repaint, at least in my demo account which is the one that gives me the right signal.
OHHHH...I just look into my demo platform GBP/USD also, and everything worked fine too. it gave the downtrend signal perfectly (aqua-red). I could not trade because I was trading the GBP/USD, but also we could profit 20 pips following the acqua-red strong downtrend signal...
On the other hand, my live account gaves me different signals, only acqua-acqua-acqua, and completely different colors afterward, but it never gave me the acqua-red and desired entry signal. Right now, I have a weak uptrend signal (blue-blue-blue) in my live account, but my demo platform is giving me(yellow-yellow-orange), so no trade. So, I stick with my demo platform which is working perfectly, and the one fortunely I did the research on. Otherwise, I could not be trading on pabloski's system today. Reasons why I told you to confirm trading signals before entering any trade, and do your personal reasearch.
I have been watching the only pairs I trade after the sad news of repaint, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, ERU/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/USD and at least all day today, it has not repaint after a bar closed(15M CHARTS ONLY). I repeat, I havent seen any repaint. If anyone has seen something different in 15M charts feel free to comment please. I noticed that bars repaint before closing the 15M cycle, but after the bar closed the previous one has not repainted yet, At least in todays personal experiment.
I just try to follow the market trend, and when everyone is selling at unison , no one is buying, except some no brain like me at times before, then prices drop like crazy, especially in such speculative pair like GBP,JPY that's a market behavior, and I just followed and profit from that behavior. Who control the market, banks!!! Bank's traders have rules to follow, they called trading policy, we, the small fish,do not have any policy, we enter anytime without a boss behind and a set of undefine and undisciplined rules( I included myself, working on improvement). We just loss( in most cases) or win our money, not a job or reputation. So, when they enter the market all bank's traders(who has the biggest volume and price movements influences) follow the same rules, if the economic releases was below expectations, which bank will go against the market? No one, I guess, that's when everyone enter the market and prices move like crazy in one direction. I recommend follow the trend, NEVER CHALLENGE the market, I learned from personal experience. So far, the system is working for me. If anyone noticed something different please let us know.
We should be like bank traders, we should have our own trade rules that we must never violate!!!! avoid emotions, over trading, and forget about guts, that does not lead to success at least in trading. All my losses has come from guessing, overtrading, sticking to undisareable trades that last longer that expected, not recognizing a loss, that later becomes catasthrophic (both financially and emotional), not setting predefine rules with entry and exit points, stop-losses( not all trades will go as expected) and finally trying to reinvent the wheel(personally working and improving trading strategies, this forum is helping me). This market is rules set, we dont make the rules, big players make the rules at least in the short term, which is my trading strategy and for 99% of small stack traders. Who enter in a position for a year, a month, even a week, let say for an entire day, at least all my trades I generally close them in less than 30 minutes, some last days, small positions only, and with this system sometime after profit my 20 pips less than a minute. The market will finally correct after a combination of economic data and fundamentals, Banks or institutional investors has been here for centuries, and more to come profiting from unexperienced traders who enter the market dreaming to turn into the next Soros or Ihcan, and this guys are more sophisticated than any company out there. They have between others, but two major advantages: Technology(research-software) and Rules that make big players and any trading strategy succesful over the long run. I would include capital too $$$$, but biggest players have break down like LTCM, hegde funds like Amarath recently, and also banks who play against the market. Thanks to pablosky and others, we have some helpful tools, but what small investors also need are a set of unbreakable rules, like a trading bible that work according to a trader personality. I recommend to share your trading with a group of two, maximum three traders, It's definitely cost wise,funny, it has physical,mental,social, and healthy benefits, risk sharing, time saving, and force you to make the necessary rules to succeed in this difficult profession. Sometimes, the best system is not the most sophisticated and perfect, like the ones that Credit Suisse or Goldamn Sachs has, is the one that works for you personally and fit accordingly to your personality, eventhough has it flows and mistakes, everything needs readjustment, upgrades and constant changes until reach the desired perfection, also, the one that boost your confidence and finally make you successful. Good day and good Luck to all!!!! Thanks again for sharing your knowledge and research, I am trying and giving my best.

The 16M bars do repaint. I have watched them do it in real time.

That does not mean this isn't a good system and that the system won't make money.

It means that one cannot look back on historical charts and draw any accurate conclusions about price movement and bar color. Any testing done on this system must be real time forward testing.

His guys,
My friend noticed that the EUR/JPY 15M chart repainted. Today starting at 8.30am after 4 straight yellow, the fifth bar closed yellow, but when the other start moving it repainted to blue, which is an strong signal to enter the market. We had enough time to close the position without a loss after 2H, does not move as expected we should close the position, BUt definitely that's a misleading signal. UNACCEPATBLE!!!, let see if pabloski can do anything about it. So, far I haven't see any repaint, but we must be very careful, and monitored well this system. I will keep trading following the same rules mainly in GBP/JPY GBP/USD pairs. I will post any irregularities. If anyone noticed anything, please feel free to comment and keep everyone inform. Have a wonderful weekend!!!!!!
Let see next week!!!!!

Like Bill said, that doesn't mean that this is not a good system, so far is working. Now, I have to question the accuracy of the research and how effective is pabloski's system. I am testing it in real trading, and so far 2/2 in GBP/USD and GBP/JPY strong signals. I'll let you know is something goes wrong. If anyone using it in real trading, where emotions are different like just look at the chart and said we could have make easy money. Nothing is easy money in this world, but if the sytem is accurate enough to give results above 65% at least with strong signals, i'll stick to it. Please post your results and observation. Thanks!!!!

I don't know why so much fuss about repainting.
Repainting is normal for many indicators. As price moves, conditions change and indicator repaints itself.
Now, a real time testing is crucial because the way indicator looks on historical chart, is not necessarily how it happened in real life.
For example if bar repaints itself from yellow to blue, it is good idea to exit short position, just what bluemiami did, I beleive. Sometimes 2 bars change from yellow to blue at once, thus real time entry is delayed since 2 bars that look blue on historical chart weren't blue when bar closed.
The real time testing should be first accomplished with MT tester and then on demo account.

Repainting is a fuss because looking back on the charts doesn't give you a clue how the system performs.

Forward testing is important on any system.

There are many systems to choose from for your testing.

Would you rather spend your time forward testing one that historically has been profitable or one that is a complete unknown?

I'm not sure about this, but I doubt you can do an accurate MT4 backtest on repainting bars.

These bars have problems beyond repainting.
Team Aphid observed two different computers with the same platform and same data feed looking at the same pairs on the same TF, coloring the bars differently.

I have seen other exotic indicators do exactly the same kind of thing.

I just did a backtest on 2 different platforms which by the way show different color bars for the last few bars. (one shows yellow, the other blue).

Even though results are different they are similar, one shows 2378 pip gain the other 2768. But with spread difference between the two, the pip diff should be no more than 200 pips. That's good a test enough for me to show that systam works no matter how it paints itself over time.
I think that to test systems that use such indicators by looking at historical charts is a good way to lose your pants.

The backtests which will be done with repainting indicators are not reliable, as you all know. Therefore, only way is forward testing to understand if the system is profitable or not. The fuss for repainting indicators is about the time, because forward testing takes time.

We asked our programmer about stepchoppy indicator and he said it can repaint after checking the codes for all four indicators. He says it repaints due to the StepRSI indicator which is used to calculate stepchoppy indicator. He said StepRSI calculates its values from the left of the chart, and not the right. Therefore at every new bar it recalculates everything, creating opportunity for repainting. He stated that the formulas "buffer" it very good, so it's not happening a lot but it can happen. This is the main reason you see it repaints more frequently on 15M chart than 4hr.

We believe there are two ways to trade this system. One is after forward testing and observing the bars real time so that we can have more reliable test results. The other one is not to use stepchoppy indicator if you find it unreliable and use only ATR channels, Trend Power indicator and price action, all together. At the moment, we are forward testing pabloski system with our modified rules (we already backtested it with our modified rules, and the result has improved a lot but due to the repainting nature of stepchoppy indicator, we are not sure how this result is reliable), and we are also backtesting another modified pabloski system without using stephoppy indicator.

We are going to share both systems here under pabloski thread to honour his generosity for sharing the indicators, his strategies and ideas.

TeamAphid

These are two quite dissimilar opinions. Lets first study and analyse the system carefully before making any conclusive judgment/s. Just my opinion.

I completely agree with you Irusoh.

Test, modify, improve, analyse, adapt, etc, etc. If it is working for you, then is ok!