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  • #1,361
  • Apr 13, 2007 11:06am Apr 13, 2007 11:06am
Quoting MackS10
What a great trading week it has been for the Euro. My long position has been closed at 1.3510.
I still belive the euro will head higher as the 1.3480 level should provide great support.
I agreed. i hope to see 1.38+ in the future.
  • #1,362
  • Apr 13, 2007 4:40pm Apr 13, 2007 4:40pm
Not before we see a correction in my view. According to CFTC data released today spec accounts increased their long euro positions to a record high to +104 394 contracts. Bare in mind the data is up to April 10 and we had three more up days so I expect this number to be even higher next week.

Now what that does tell us ? Well, I'll be extra careful if I were long because everyone is already long. What happens when there's no one left to buy ? And what's more important who's let those longs, who's sold to them ?

Of course it doesn't mean the market can't advance another 100/150 points. Just be nimble and keep in mind that corrections in a bull market are fast.
  • #1,363
  • Apr 13, 2007 8:30pm Apr 13, 2007 8:30pm
Quoting MackS10
What a great trading week it has been for the Euro. My long position has been closed at 1.3510.
I still belive the euro will head higher as the 1.3480 level should provide great support.
Great to hear that. My SL got hit at 1.3495. Netted 140 pips. Not too shabby for a an almost 11% increase in equity.
  • #1,364
  • Apr 17, 2007 3:14am Apr 17, 2007 3:14am
Nevertheless I expected a maximum a little more higher (1,3605).
We will see.
That one is the second level for my short positions accumulation.
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #1,365
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:48am Apr 18, 2007 7:48am
anyone still think it will get a new all time high?
i don't understand why it breakout going down this moring.......i mean, it got no news today, and the trend is going up. people just want to pull out? is that why?
  • #1,366
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:53am Apr 18, 2007 7:53am
Quoting Zheny
anyone still think it will get a new all time high?
i don't understand why it breakout going down this moring.......i mean, it got no news today, and the trend is going up. people just want to pull out? is that why?

Markets don't go straight up or down. It's normal to expect a correction at some point.
  • #1,367
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:00am Apr 18, 2007 8:00am
The result of the price always is dictated from with of tied things to the psycology of the trader. The timing with which these things they are grouped he is often unforeseeable.
The facts are however these:

1.) It is clearly all long until to we do not come down under the area 1,3470-1,3450.


Personally I'm short to 30% from 1,3540 and an other 30% from 1,3605.
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #1,368
  • Apr 19, 2007 2:42pm Apr 19, 2007 2:42pm
For the EW experts out there. What do you guys think about the euro ? Final wave iv of (v) underway, meaning another leg higher
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur 4-19.gif Size: 11 KB
  • #1,369
  • Apr 19, 2007 3:11pm Apr 19, 2007 3:11pm
3670 is the top of the channel euro has been following since December last year. Also don't forget the potential doble top as well.
Attached Image
  • #1,370
  • Apr 19, 2007 4:39pm Apr 19, 2007 4:39pm
My guess is that it's going to head sideways for a while now, with increasing volatility. The chart below is done using an indicator based on something like taking the forward end point of the Metatrader STD channel, over 7 1/2 days, with the dashed bands being set at 2 std's. Note the accumulating points below the trendline towards the end, and the increasing volatility at the upper side, as fewer points fall above the trendline (I calculate the +/- lines separately). So I'm staying out.....
Cheers;
CB


http://gammarat.com/Forex/30070420/eurusdtemp.gif
  • #1,371
  • Apr 20, 2007 2:02am Apr 20, 2007 2:02am

I think it's going to bust right through that high and keep going.

How you act is more important than how you feel.
  • #1,372
  • Apr 20, 2007 9:28am Apr 20, 2007 9:28am
Quoting Warmagus

I think it's going to bust right through that high and keep going.


I think that it is going to retrace over the next week, then have another attempt at 1.3666.

This is NOT a recommendation to "short" this market but rather look for a lower place or price to buy in.


.
  • #1,373
  • Apr 20, 2007 10:25am Apr 20, 2007 10:25am
Ya I can see there being a retracement, you know there's got to be a lot of selling right there at a major double top. But I think it's going to break through and continue north. Just a guess though.
How you act is more important than how you feel.
  • #1,374
  • Edited 10:54pm Apr 20, 2007 4:42pm | Edited 10:54pm
I've got it beginning to flatten out on 4 hour & 1 hour charts and less (using an averaging method over 5 days), but to short it now I would have to put in an order around 1.3635, with a sl of 1.3655 anyway, lots of time till it re-opens to think about it...
  • #1,375
  • Apr 20, 2007 6:19pm Apr 20, 2007 6:19pm
COT data released today showing record long speculative euro positions for second consecutive week. They increased their positions by 2,097 to 129,044 where shorts has decreased by 279 to 22,274 contracts.

There is a very good chance the correction is just around the corner. I'm more convinced now than I was last week. I'm also bullish the market and I'll be looking to buy that correction but not until 3250/00.
  • #1,376
  • Apr 20, 2007 10:57pm Apr 20, 2007 10:57pm
Quoting JimboFX
COT data released today showing record long speculative euro positions for second consecutive week. They increased their positions by 2,097 to 129,044 where shorts has decreased by 279 to 22,274 contracts.

There is a very good chance the correction is just around the corner. I'm more convinced now than I was last week. I'm also bullish the market and I'll be looking to buy that correction but not until 3250/00.
Watch eurjpy for direction on this one, with big eurozone redemptions over the next few weeks.
  • #1,377
  • Apr 21, 2007 4:49am Apr 21, 2007 4:49am
On all 4H charts it seems like EUR is ready to go down next week.
  • #1,378
  • Apr 21, 2007 8:01am Apr 21, 2007 8:01am
I don't think so, maybe is just went down because Friday the big boys pull out after lunch or w/e
look at 2007.04.16-23:30
is going down just like now, but on the 17th it pop right back up. i think the same thing is going to happen again. and i believe is all going to depend on the coming news.
  • #1,379
  • Apr 22, 2007 11:42am Apr 22, 2007 11:42am
I also think that we will go a bit sideways and then up again.
I notice a divergence on the MACD so I believe that price will go down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: macdc.jpg Size: 92 KB
  • #1,380
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:38am Apr 23, 2007 4:38am
Well, from a daily view , we are just in the combat area(1,3550 -1,3575).
For all the bears, do not remain that to pray for the down break of this area.
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
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