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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,561
  • Jun 3, 2009 8:59pm Jun 3, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting Alec
Don't get me wrong - I like to look at the bigger picture, get some perspective. In fact, I used to do that a long time ago, when I started - about 3 months ago :|

To know which SR lines were important was sometimes very puzzling.

Now an example from the daily, today. EUR/USD is consistently rising since April 22. I plotted fibs since then till today's high. One could expect a retracement for the 23.6 fibo. Am I right until now?

Since today's low does not seem to go any further, I tried to find another support line. December 31 high seemed adequate...
Trading has nothing to do with education. Remember Dr. Joe, the nuclear physicist at NASA? He threw away everything technical and just followed price - and made $millions doing it.

A more accurate and current fib would be to pull it from it's most recent swing.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,562
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:05pm Jun 3, 2009 9:05pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Y'All,

I think these coming weeks we will learn a great deal of real time price action. I have been patiently waiting for this to happen. I have seen it in history and I will learn it in real time. GBPUSD, EURUSD, and AUDUSD, they all have a good separation between 20 and 50 and major supports also between them. I will look for Bond in these areas.
I applaud your invention and creativity, Patrick, keep us posted. Meanwhile, don't forget PASR.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,563
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:08pm Jun 3, 2009 9:08pm
Quoting paddyham
A strong bearish candle, Bearish engulfing pattern. I think GBPUSD trend overall is up (near term) however after a lot of green candles needs a rest / retrace before pushing higher (after nearly 10 days of strong bull candles)

Will look out for exhaustion (spinning tops) after this retrace and then some PA to get long into cable off some S/R (probably of the psycho 1.600 level or just below where there was previous consolidation).

Thoughts Team?
Maybe pull a fib and see where it is at now?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,564
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:33pm Jun 3, 2009 9:33pm
I do like the look of the weekly USDJPY..will be alert for a breakout of the current triangle. E/J also of great interest again in here.
  • #3,565
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:59pm Jun 3, 2009 9:59pm
Finally finished the thread. My yield curve will measure how well I assimilated.
Before I post any charts about what I think...I will share a few stories from former clients that may help someone here. If each of them helps just one learner, I'll be thrilled to death.

For tonight just a thought about my mission statment I posted in my first post. I'm pretty sure I'm changing my job title from professional trader to professional contingency planner. My definition of contingency planning does not allow for me to predict any particular outcome but causes me to have appropriate courses of action that are pre-determined for the events that I foresee. I beleve this mindset is what prevents me from expecting trendlines to hold, for example, or whatever PASR (W1/MN), that is currently developing, to do what I "want" it to do, etc.

The market is going to do what it is going to do. I need to have my plan formulated to ensure capital preservation no matter what it does. Therein, I respect it so I don't have to fear it.

That is my current mindset. This title change is merely a reinforcement mechanism to ensure that my intellect and my emotions are consistent especially when it comes to my self-perception and my ability to deal with the market.

respectfully submitted,
ww
  • #3,566
  • Jun 3, 2009 10:07pm Jun 3, 2009 10:07pm
Quoting Alexandra
I do like the look of the weekly USDJPY..will be alert for a breakout of the current triangle. E/J also of great interest again in here.
I still like this long. We broke the high of 136 from early April in the last few days and have had a small retrace back to it. If this holds as support its a good sign for more movement upwards.
  • #3,567
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:09am Jun 4, 2009 12:09am
Quoting Alec
Since today's low does not seem to go any further, I tried to find another support line. Can this be valid? Should it be expectable the price would bounce from that line?
I suggest to put SR lines first and then check where the price is with respect to those lines, not the vice versa.
  • #3,568
  • Jun 4, 2009 3:04am Jun 4, 2009 3:04am
I wont be playing any of these bars against the USD as we have BOSS and BIG BOSS long USD bars around and its NFP on friday.

But there are some beautiful bars......so its a long weekend here!!!!

and look at the sun LONDON..

Now a little off piste fun for you,

I have been in London this week striking new client deals and guess what they are buying from me.......my yeld curve.
They wanna see low volume of trades.....hi % wins and most of all they love the consistancy.
Working with a new fund,made up of a fund manager that jumped ship before the big crunch we put together a slide show of my work,with boss,big boss charts and the all important daily key...time and time again.

I thought of you guys and our little awards we did about the yeild curve and there i am all sweaty a "maverick" as they call me in a posh St.Johns wood office all alone like a little piggy but in a house made of brick! or a house made of a vertical curve....

If you play any of these bars....some people will... i wish you good luck.

I wont look at market till the weekend now.
I have also had a master class in trading off a friend of a friend who works for one of the big 5 funds.....i have so much to learn and so far to go.

So stay strong people and build a house that will stand firm forever.......g
  • #3,569
  • Jun 4, 2009 3:45am Jun 4, 2009 3:45am
Thanks BabaG -good post and a good reminder to everyone on the importance of a rising curve. Good to see that you are 'mixing-it' with the big boys - I look fwd to your book in a few decades' time - 'Pizza, Pasta and Yield curves - how I traded less and beat the market' or somthing along those lines.

As you stated all bets are best taken off the table now; see where the roller coaster of NFP takes us next week.
Have a great weekend,
Grim
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,570
  • Jun 4, 2009 5:13am Jun 4, 2009 5:13am
Quoting Blackeagle
I suggest to put SR lines first and then check where the price is with respect to those lines, not the vice versa.
Yes, I thought that might be the answer. Thanks.
  • #3,571
  • Edited 6:19am Jun 4, 2009 5:33am | Edited 6:19am
Quoting strat
Trading has nothing to do with education. Remember Dr. Joe, the nuclear physicist at NASA? He threw away everything technical and just followed price - and made $millions doing it.

A more accurate and current fib would be to pull it from it's most recent swing.
Your Dr. Joe story was very inspiring.

As for the fibs, would this be more accurate?

Attached Image
  • #3,572
  • Jun 4, 2009 7:41am Jun 4, 2009 7:41am
Quoting Alexandra
I do like the look of the weekly USDJPY..will be alert for a breakout of the current triangle. E/J also of great interest again in here.
Agree but EURJPY looking "toppy"?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,573
  • Jun 4, 2009 7:45am Jun 4, 2009 7:45am
Quoting waltwitham
Finally finished the thread. My yield curve will measure how well I assimilated.
Before I post any charts about what I think...I will share a few stories from former clients that may help someone here. If each of them helps just one learner, I'll be thrilled to death.

For tonight just a thought about my mission statment I posted in my first post. I'm pretty sure I'm changing my job title from professional trader to professional contingency planner. My definition of contingency planning does not allow for me to predict any particular outcome but...
Well said, WW

""The market is going to do what it is going to do"" And we will follow it wherever it goes!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,574
  • Jun 4, 2009 7:49am Jun 4, 2009 7:49am
Quoting Alec
Your Dr. Joe story was very inspiring.

As for the fibs, would this be more accurate?

Attachment
Yes, this will give you more current price information
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,575
  • Edited 8:04am Jun 4, 2009 7:55am | Edited 8:04am
Today's news events caused wild volatility in the London Session. Many shorter time frame traders were taken to the cleaners!

Apparently, this was the reason:

LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling fell sharply against the dollar while share prices tumbled on Thursday, on speculation Prime Minister Gordon Brown would resign, which was quickly dismissed by his office.
The pound fell more than 1.0 percent on the day to a session low of $1.6082 before recovering to above $1.62.
The FTSE 100 .FTSE was down 0.3 percent at 4,371.30.
Speculation in financial markets that Brown is resigning is "absolute nonsense," his office said on Thursday.
(Reporting by London forex team)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,576
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:51am Jun 4, 2009 11:51am
Quoting strat
Today's news events caused wild volatility in the London Session. Many shorter time frame traders were taken to the cleaners!

Apparently, this was the reason:

LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling fell sharply against the dollar while share prices tumbled on Thursday, on speculation Prime Minister Gordon Brown would resign, which was quickly dismissed by his office.
The pound fell more than 1.0 percent on the day to a session low of $1.6082 before recovering to above $1.62.
The FTSE 100 .FTSE was down 0.3 percent at 4,371.30.
Speculation in financial...
Agreed a very volatile day not just for the GBP.
The ECB announcement was for no change but there was big volatility in the Euro following a failed debt auction in Latvia. Sweden has very large exposure to Latvian debt and there are fears Latvia is the canary in the coalmine with respect to European debt.

The sell off from yesterday has continued.
I wanted to point out something from yesterday about the commodity currencies and sensitive they are to "risk appetite". Yesterdays sell off was started by a pullback in the equities indices. Notice how the European currencies erased only one day of gains whereas the commodity currencies pulled back and erased three days of gains. The AUD NZD and CAD are the most sensitive to risk appetite and if the equities markets take another tumble then they will suffer the most.
  • #3,577
  • Jun 4, 2009 12:21pm Jun 4, 2009 12:21pm
Great post Nic - totally agree. We have to be careful with correlations though as they often change depending on other factors. Strat posted a chart recently showing how two pairs were inversely correlated up to a certain point then one switched and started tracking the other.

The indices are key I believe, as that is the area that best represents the fear and greed due to its whole market exposure (ie Joe Public dabbles there). That is where most of the money flows in and out of, and is the best gauge of public economics, company economics etc.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,578
  • Edited 3:03pm Jun 4, 2009 1:57pm | Edited 3:03pm
Dollar index found support off 78.50 level this week and yesterday we saw a strong BUEB taking out each of this week's opening prices.

Today is screaming indecision which is understandable with NFP tomorrow, so my reading of the majors is:

EURUSD seems to have hit resitance around the previous level from December last year and conversley, support for USDCHF.

Cable is shaping up today with a confirmed swing high and after its recent unabated bullish run, looks placed for a retracement - plus coupled with local elections today in the UK which are more than likely going to be very bad for the PM (whose job security caused the turbulance we saw today across all sterling pairs), Cable has room and reason to fall.

USDJPY has been winding up in a tighter and tighter range but appears to be breaking free at the moment.

So in a round about way, i'm interpreting some bullish Dollar behaviour reading the individual pairs together. However we also have resistance just above on the dollar index so it may be to early to make this assumption. If the index is rejected by the 79/80 level, we may see a resumption of recent trends across the majors, however if it breaks through, it may be all change.

Anyway, just my thoughts now i can get Dollar Index on my platfrom.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollarindex.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #3,579
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:40pm Jun 4, 2009 4:40pm
Thank god for price action then to see us right.......

take the shackles of my feet so i can dance
  • #3,580
  • Jun 4, 2009 4:58pm Jun 4, 2009 4:58pm
in the last 18 months ive taken 37 trades...i just wanted to share that as im going through it for work right now......
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