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  • #3,541
  • Jun 2, 2009 4:54pm Jun 2, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting oblo
Hello Strat and All,

I am Ramon from Italy, I joined this thread hoping to recover my losses (in the future...only demo for now...hehehe).I just read the first 18 pages, still in the process of catching up all the posts before posting anything...
For the USDX charts you can try here:

http://www.forexltd.co.uk


r.
Ramon Ciao e benvenuto! Come ho detto nel mio PM, abbiamo Baba G che è un mezzo italiano - dobbiamo ancora lavorare su cui la metà è che se.

Prendete il vostro tempo e leggere e comprendere ogni post prima di andare alla prossima - tutte le domande, si rivolga

Sentiti libero di postare nuovamente il benvenuto in qualsiasi momento e

Ciao
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,542
  • Jun 2, 2009 5:28pm Jun 2, 2009 5:28pm
Quoting strat
Ramon Ciao e benvenuto! Come ho detto nel mio PM, abbiamo Baba G che è un mezzo italiano - dobbiamo ancora lavorare su cui la metà è che se.

Prendete il vostro tempo e leggere e comprendere ogni post prima di andare alla prossima - tutte le domande, si rivolga

Sentiti libero di postare nuovamente il benvenuto in qualsiasi momento e

Ciao
Mezzo siciliano...miiiinchia
  • #3,543
  • Edited 8:27pm Jun 2, 2009 6:53pm | Edited 8:27pm
I've taken a bit off the table in the Continental/Commodity pairs markets. Will likely look for supportive PA at the trendlines for re-entry, backed by the S/R levels if given the chance.
  • #3,544
  • Jun 2, 2009 11:13pm Jun 2, 2009 11:13pm
I will be watching this pair closely at this level for confirmation above the major S/R level of 1.7600. Yesterday closed outside of the ascending triangle that has been forming since the lows early this year and also clsed strongly above the 200EMA which seemed to be the failure ponit on the last attempt late last week.

Although i did get a dragonfly doji today on my data feed right at 1.7600 i will watch PA at this level.
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  • #3,545
  • Jun 3, 2009 1:31am Jun 3, 2009 1:31am
Welcome oblo and thanks for the link,i assure you if you cool-headed you will learn here,welcome once again


Quoting oblo
Hello Strat and All,

I am Ramon from Italy, I joined this thread hoping to recover my losses (in the future...only demo for now...hehehe).I just read the first 18 pages, still in the process of catching up all the posts before posting anything...
For the USDX charts you can try here:

http://www.forexltd.co.uk


r.
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,546
  • Jun 3, 2009 1:35am Jun 3, 2009 1:35am
am i still in stress free trading thread......lol

Quoting strat
Ramon Ciao e benvenuto! Come ho detto nel mio PM, abbiamo Baba G che è un mezzo italiano - dobbiamo ancora lavorare su cui la metà è che se.

Prendete il vostro tempo e leggere e comprendere ogni post prima di andare alla prossima - tutte le domande, si rivolga

Sentiti libero di postare nuovamente il benvenuto in qualsiasi momento e

Ciao
D labour of a fool wearieth him cos he doesn't know how to enta d city
  • #3,547
  • Jun 3, 2009 4:28am Jun 3, 2009 4:28am
Quoting CrudeCraig
I will be watching this pair closely at this level for confirmation above the major S/R level of 1.7600. Yesterday closed outside of the ascending triangle that has been forming since the lows early this year and also clsed strongly above the 200EMA which seemed to be the failure ponit on the last attempt late last week.

Although i did get a dragonfly doji today on my data feed right at 1.7600 i will watch PA at this level.

Hi Craig,
Sorry I meant to reply last night but Z-A told me to get off the PC!! Oops!
I'm not liking the BO on gbpchf as its not been followed through. It just looks 'too obvious' to me. And if its too good to be true it usually is! Like you say though, wait for some strong PA around that key zone to confirm what the market is willing to do.
Grim
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,548
  • Jun 3, 2009 6:37am Jun 3, 2009 6:37am
Hi Strat,

This might sound silly but, while re-reading the beginning of the thread, I get somehow de-motivated by past weekly or so analysis, especially since I'm familiar mostly with EUR/USD. The other pairs, not so much. So I get stuck in those posts and don't know if I should skip them or not.

Another strange thing that, lately, seems to be happening to me is - It seems that I can't get past the 1H time frame. Because I got used to the 15M (which I want to get away from), the daily range fibs, the daily pivots... I don't know.

Since I'm kind of used to use fibs as references, I'm a bit lost on how to draw them on daily or weekly charts. The range, from where to where, in a way the whole retracement logic makes any sense.

I guess I'm babbling a little and I haven't been a good boy even - I let this study fall a little behind. Not entirely my fault but nevertheless..

In conclusion, some pointers would be greatly appreciated.


P.S.: My mind is not at it's best currently since I suffered a head trauma last weekend but I'm recovering...
  • #3,549
  • Edited 1:21pm Jun 3, 2009 7:50am | Edited 1:21pm
Be aware that the big boys and brokers are always one step ahead of the game and know where your stops are.

Take the recent Bond Shooting Star on EURUSD for example. This was a low of 1.4113. The big boys and brokers know that this is the signal for many to take a short trade. They also know that the majority of traders will have their sell stops anywhere from 2 pips below the low to 10 pips below the low.

Knowing that their forward orders give them more buying pressure, they drive the price down to 1.4102 to take out all stops and therefore fill you short, before sending price on its merry way higher. So with your SL above the high of the Bond Shooting Star, you have now been taken to the cleaners for 150 pips or so.

Hopefully, everyone on here recognised the strength of the bull trend but more importantly, the Bond Shooting Star.

This is part of the reason why you sometimes see my stops 20 or 30 pips or so below/above the signal. I would much rather sacrifice profit pips than pay in lost pips.

# 1 RULE: CAPITAL PRESERVATION
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,550
  • Jun 3, 2009 8:04am Jun 3, 2009 8:04am
Quoting Alec
Hi Strat,

This might sound silly but, while re-reading the beginning of the thread, I get somehow de-motivated by past weekly or so analysis, especially since I'm familiar mostly with EUR/USD. The other pairs, not so much. So I get stuck in those posts and don't know if I should skip them or not.

Another strange thing that, lately, seems to be happening to me is - It seems that I can't get past the 1H time frame. Because I got used to the 15M (which I want to get away from), the daily range fibs, the daily pivots... I don't know.

Since I'm kind...
Hey Alec,

Sorry to hear about the head trauma - take it easy - I suffered one in August 2006 and am still recovering (which may explain the crazy thread!)

If you are on this thread, you are here to learn trading the Daily time frame and above using PASR. If you want to trade anything less, then you need to be on another thread. No-one can tell you which time frame to trade - it is your choice.

As far as fib retracements and anything else technical for that matter, always remember, the higher the time frame, the more accurate and reliable are the technicals and, easier to plot, draw, read and understand.

If you need the adrenalin rush from taking lots of trades, then you won't get it on here. If you want peace, quiet and stress free trading then this is the place to learn it.

Whatever you decide is fine, just let us know how we can help if you stay on here.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,551
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:23am Jun 3, 2009 9:23am
Quoting strat
Hopefully, everyone on here recognised the strength of the bull trend but more importantly, the Bond Shooting Star.
Hi Strat,

Thanks for this post. I'm currently F12'ing through lots of graphs looking at Hammers / Stars..... and a large problem I have is not recognising these Bonds

In your example - I would class that as a good shooting star (although against the trend).

The criteria I have for recognising a 'good shooting star' would be:
* Wick at least 2xbody
* After Uptrend
* Trade with the trend (which your example isn't)
* At S/R
* good MM - usually means not a huge wick.

Can you perhaps help me to recognise when its a Bond or the real deal.... i.e I need to work out how to say "are you 100% a woman" like Bond says, but in trading talk!

I'm pulling my hair out at the moment.... if I can't even recognise this their may be no hope for me...ahhhh

Any advice would be great.
  • #3,552
  • Jun 3, 2009 11:53am Jun 3, 2009 11:53am
Maybe the fact that its such a strong uptrend outweighs all the other factors?

Lets see what Strat says
  • #3,553
  • Jun 3, 2009 1:03pm Jun 3, 2009 1:03pm
Paddyham (or is it hairless now),

To be a Bond or not to be a Bond, that is the question!

I wish there was a black and white definitive answer for you, but there really isn’t. If there was, it would make trading really simple and we would all be millionaires.

As you state, there are the classic definitions and body proportions of Hammers and Shooting Stars. However, these can all be in place and still not provide the action we were anticipating.

There is so much more to correct recognition of these bars than people give credit for and a big part of that comes from experience, market awareness and studying these bars on thousands and thousands of charts.

Let’s look at the EURUSD Bond Shooting Star again. You said it had the correct text book body proportions, was after the Uptrend and at resistance.

Body Proportions – wick at least 2 times the body
Remember, this is text book language and is only a MINIMUM requirement.
Now look at this bar in the context of the trend and the bars before it.
This pair has been in a stair stepping up trend since April 28 09. If you draw in my TLs, it shows Momentum is accelerating.
Now look at the bodies of the bullish and bearish candles – big and strong.
Just a quick glance at that small, short Bond Shooting Star should tell you it isn’t in the same league as those green and red bars.
Then applying a bit of common sense, it “looks like” it would need something bigger than a half cocked shooting star to stop a roaring bull.
If we look at it technically, it only has a range of 133 pips whereas the latest ATR is 185 pips, so it is well short of the average let alone being something bigger to stop this train.

Next we need to look at how trends change or turn around.
Before an uptrend can go down, it has to what? It first has to STOP, and then turn around. Will it do this all in one little Bond Shooting Star? I think not. To stop a trend, the Shooting Star needs to be in some proportion to the length, strength and dynamics of the trend. In other words, we want to see a really STRONG Shooting Star with a long wick that really has gone searching for the Stars (buyers). This would mean that the buyers continued to buy at higher prices but, they not only reached the level where no more buyers could be found, they also found the level where sellers were prepared to sell. This would show a change of sentiment from buying to selling.

Now if the trend was running out of steam, we would see many small range bars prior to, and at the top. A Bond Shooting Star in this case, would probably do it’s job.
Something else we must never forget is Market Sentiment. The current Market Sentiment promoted by everybody and his uncle is USD weakness. In the case of the EURUSD, we should expect it to continue rising as long as that sentiment still exists. This in itself, is a good argument for a Bond Shooting Star.

‘After the Uptrend” you said.
How do we know it is at the end of an uptrend? We don’t, nobody does! We only know after the fact when a confirmed swing high is in place. This is where lots of money is lost and accounts blown, trying to call tops and bottoms.

This is another advantage of trading the Daily time frame. Because our trades are large in pip value, we don’t need to jump in at the beginning of each move. We can afford to let the trend show itself and then get in. This is impossible the shorter the time frame you trade as for example, trading 20 pips on M5, the move could be over if you don’t get in at the beginning.

“At resistance”
While the Bond Shooting Star was at “a” level of resistance, it was not at a significant level of resistance.

So, recognition of Hammers and Shooting Stars comes down to a lot more than people would have you believe.

As I have said before, you must practice on thousands and thousands of charts but make sure you are “recording” in your trading memory the shapes and sizes of Hammers and Shooting Stars relative to where they are in the trend and within the context of the bars preceding them and, what happened to price after they appeared.

I know this is not the answer you wanted but I don’t know what else to tell you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,554
  • Edited 1:49pm Jun 3, 2009 1:47pm | Edited 1:49pm
Quoting strat
Hey Alec,

Sorry to hear about the head trauma - take it easy - I suffered one in August 2006 and am still recovering (which may explain the crazy thread!)

If you are on this thread, you are here to learn trading the Daily time frame and above using PASR. If you want to trade anything less, then you need to be on another thread. No-one can tell you which time frame to trade - it is your choice.

As far as fib retracements and anything else technical for that matter, always remember, the higher the time frame, the more accurate and reliable are...
Don't get me wrong - I like to look at the bigger picture, get some perspective. In fact, I used to do that a long time ago, when I started - about 3 months ago :|

To know which SR lines were important was sometimes very puzzling.

Now an example from the daily, today. EUR/USD is consistently rising since April 22. I plotted fibs since then till today's high. One could expect a retracement for the 23.6 fibo. Am I right until now?

Since today's low does not seem to go any further, I tried to find another support line. December 31 high seemed adequate (red line on the chart). Can this be valid? Should it be expectable the price would bounce from that line?

As I'm writing now, the price is already 36 pip below that line. It could go up again and close around 1.4146...

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Maybe I need a change in attitude. Feeling very ignorant right now. You guys make such clever (incomprehensible) analysis. And I used to be pretty well installed with my intelligence. Like some around here my colledge education was in engeneering. Numbers were my thing. Now I'm a dummy.

Boohoo.

Rock on
  • #3,555
  • Jun 3, 2009 1:56pm Jun 3, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting strat
To be a Bond or not to be a Bond, that is the question!
Hi Strat,

Firstly many thanks for such a detailed post! and it IS exactly the answer I was looking for...

It just shows how much experience you have. It defo helps in understanding how you think... what is probably just a couple of seconds for you.

There is soo much more info I can now understand (well know I need to understand) with the formation of the candle and CONTEXT in which a SS is formed.

I'm going to go through all my charts and note down all SS, hammers and jot down things like trend, momentum, atr, etc etc and see which ones "won"

I'm sure others will find this really useful too. Unless its just me whose dense !

Again thanks for another brilliant post
  • #3,556
  • Jun 3, 2009 1:59pm Jun 3, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting Alec
Don't get me wrong - I like to look at the bigger picture, get some perspective. In fact, I used to do that a long time ago, when I started - about 3 months ago :|

To know which SR lines were important was sometimes very puzzling.

Now an example from the daily, today. EUR/USD is consistently rising since April 22. I plotted fibs since then till today's high. One could expect a retracement for the 23.6 fibo. Am I right until now?

Since today's low does not seem to go any further, I tried to find another support line. December 31 high seemed adequate...
I have that support line at 1.4100, it acted as resistance in 1992, although I don't think its a very strong line. Price could still break it and retrace to the 23 fib but it doesn't have to do that, nothing is 100% sure and price doesn't always do what we think its supposed to
  • #3,557
  • Jun 3, 2009 3:59pm Jun 3, 2009 3:59pm
Quoting Naws
I have that support line at 1.4100, it acted as resistance in 1992, although I don't think its a very strong line. Price could still break it and retrace to the 23 fib but it doesn't have to do that, nothing is 100% sure and price doesn't always do what we think its supposed to
Thanks Naws.

I'd never think of going as back as 1992! Anyways, right or wrong, now in the Australian session, it looks like that 1.4146-ish will have do for a close.

Conclusion: don't have one.
  • #3,558
  • Jun 3, 2009 4:58pm Jun 3, 2009 4:58pm
A strong bearish candle, Bearish engulfing pattern. I think GBPUSD trend overall is up (near term) however after a lot of green candles needs a rest / retrace before pushing higher (after nearly 10 days of strong bull candles)

Will look out for exhaustion (spinning tops) after this retrace and then some PA to get long into cable off some S/R (probably of the psycho 1.600 level or just below where there was previous consolidation).

Thoughts Team?
  • #3,559
  • Jun 3, 2009 5:40pm Jun 3, 2009 5:40pm
Hi All,

I think these coming weeks we will learn great deal of real time price action. I have been patiently waiting for this to happen. I have seen it in history and I will learn it in real time. GBPUSD, EURUSD, and AUDUSD they all have a good seperation between 20 and 50 and major supports also between them. I will look for bond in these areas.
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  • #3,560
  • Jun 3, 2009 8:52pm Jun 3, 2009 8:52pm
Quoting strat
Well what have we here? This looks like something I should know - now where did I put Strat's Manual on PASR?




When you first look at the chart without zooming in, it almost looks like a Renko chart - so simple!
This was a very nice trade, thank you.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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