EURUSD

... did not follow the plan and got greedy... lost all this work and a whole week of possitive pips. on my longer term trade i made money.. but was daytrading on another and lost pips.. all and all made about 5 pips for a weeks work... when the hourly turned bullish i should of bailed.. but decided to sleep instead.. . in my defence the weekly said i was ok.. but the monthly was bullish.. dont get married to direction... i post this as part of my diary.. picking tops is for fools but i think i was close.. i just did a bad job of considering the bottom.. in my original analysis i did post about the 50% retrace as a possibility..but once in the trade i elimminated it mostly... i posted dont trade this during this test because i dont want to be responsible for your loss...but i did trade it and im responsible for getting greedy.. i was up over 12% in this trade.. ended up barely with .2%... live and learn dont get greedy...a chicken in the pot is better then 10 eggs in a bush

Welcome back I hope you had a nice time



Goodnight

Sydney, June 01: US Treasury Secretary Geithner is in China to meet with key officials in that country and an
important juncture for the global economy. Geithner assured his audience that the US will act to reduce fiscal
deficits in the medium-term and said the US pledged to restore fiscal sustainability. Some analysts were
expecting Geithner to publicly declare the US government support for a strong dollar policy, as official in China
have shown deep concern that their massive US dollar holdings are being undermined by US policies.
Geithner will be there for a couple of more days and still might specifically point out the need for the US to
maintain a strong US dollar, but his lack of attention to the matter today has encouraged more USD selling.

The EUR/USD is edging towards Friday"s 1.4168 high amid talk of decent sell orders between 1.4170/90

I'm not as optomistic about 4700 yet as the crap price has to wade thru to get there is even deeper than it is here on this thread, but 4350ish is certainly in the cards imo... that said, 47x is a Technical possibility as far as I'm concerned. And getting there would create some concern as well for other reasons...

It's the probability of it that's up in the air, and long term prdictions as to what it WILL do in this environment are a little risky coming from traders with our general level of expertise and information resources available, and lately even a week can be "long term"...

For instance sorea$$ junior has been predicting 1.60 retest for many months now both before and during a several thousand pip collapse... that doesn't make his ranting any more "correct" if it happens to get back up there someday, altho I would fully expect a "told ya so" in spite of a 3000 pip drawdown.

I'm far more comfortable having an Up plan and a Down plan with some confidence in what levels to watch for getting triggered when, and all the while knowing that most of the time, a decent Sideways plan can make some good pips as well...

I'm not personally anticipating any 1.40xx revisits that soon either partly becuz I don't feel the bulls can afford the loss of momentum at this currently significant level. If it did do that, I'd not be looking for a 1.40 "retest" but a fall back thru it as this Bull run falters which is certainly one of my contingencies being the perma bear that I am. It's just not on my short list of probablities at this point.

Summary... I think it'll go down, but I expect it to go up some more first. If I'm wrong about the second part, I'll be thrilled about the first part. That's a Win-Win the way I see it...

PS I still need to figure out why I'm sitting in front of this puter on a sunday night while GM is drafting their Tango Uniform notice...

Just take this hint, when you are up 10% TAKE YOUR GAIN.

and cut your loses at 5%, right?

reposted 99804 .. diary is a good thing..you should keep one... i see i did not stick to my plan on a winning trade.. original post may 24...


ok for simple minded people only..just something im kicking around dont trade it...just testing something.. im just posting it to keep me honest i can not change post without you knowing..yes the trend is up since jan agreed. but since nov the jury is still out since upper level has not been broken..dec highs still unbroken.. i always considered the line between bullish and bearish at either side of 3375/95 mid term. (nov/jan h/l 50%) anyway its above this mark with bullish bias.. with eyes on 4177...area...if you look at euro and dollar, both suck against other currency lately. eur doing slightly better ex compared to ux..both have gone down since april..

i have a lots of reasons to say were are going north. im not disagreeing with most things said or the reasons.. im simply playing devils advocate.. im not gonna post methods yet..

im just trying to find a way to pick a top with better then 50/50 odds.. if i can i can simply put my sl above top or below bottom and make billions of pips..after all this single thing of knowing where to enter or get out is the trillian dollar question.. being right 50% or even 10% of the time is worth billions since your sl can be placed close..and r/r would be astronomical on large moves.. for instance if 4177 is the reversal and you risk 25 pips and its right.. and using the half way point of 3375/95 area is about 800 pips and you risked 25.. r/r 32/1. i could be wrong 32 times excluding commission and break even.. well this is just the first part.. once on a big move and reversal is comfirmed you can add positions compounding the move. there are other things to do such as enter and re entering to compound move extra..

any way im gonna take a shot at calling a reversal before it happens..i have proven to self i can do it on short term. but longer term is the billion dollar question..i dont type well and will not post methods yet but its nothing but simple..the above numbers are no more then fibs 50% the 23.5 or whatever either side of low or high dec/feb. if something is mispelled or sentence doesnt make sence figure it out using a simple mind..(make it work) use the 50% mark as the daily fib.. most of the time we go back to daily fib..btw 4177 is the 50% move from last summer high to last years low.. using this we are bearish since we are below 4177 still..

im gonna call 4177 top just cause its simple. but it may not be so easy... well if so 4200 would seem a good sl.. personally i would go beyond 4200 since big boys would be head hunting some...my sl would be bove next zone or next big ma...if needed we will post one latter..

anyway if this is the top its simple.. if it not r/r is not that bad.. ok devils advocate mood again.. suppose it does not reach the top stated.. all subject to change.. without any major negative dollar news we may not go that high.. as said earlier i dont want to get in a pissing contest..i just want to get to where i can learn to make more money the same goal as you. dont constipate it you want more money then me and i more then you..i will follow ayone here who makes more % then me and i will be the village idiot..laughing all the way to the bank..

ok reversal before 4177.. there are signs..i will not post them yet.. dont trade this.. it is unproven.. dont let a nut you dont know typing on the net waste your money.. you control your own destiny not me. here are some numbers i dont know what the reaction will be to these numbers.. but i have used unposted methods and most tend to agree..i posted 4073/4105 friday for a posible short term retrace although 4050 may have started it already.. i posted 4051 was a possible high when it was just a few pips lower during a bull move.. sorry missed it by a pip.

another method shows 4059.. and another4068 4086 and another 4073 4105. look these numbers are from big charts its not un commoun to over shoot.. the bigger the chart the less precise your numbers are..i did say dont trade this. its a work in progress.. everthing said here should be checked using your own technique... it goes against what a lot of good traders have said here. traders i respect..its not a pissing context and they are more then likely right.. my goal is just to pick a top, nothing more.. except to do it then be able to repeat consistanly..

ok suppose we do reverse now we have to get out with green pips..the same is true later.. if have to pick a reverse to get maxium pips..this part is actually easier if you assume the trend is up.. pick a smaller tf and get out with reversal sighns.. if on a longer tf assuming the bigger trend reversed..1.4 would be your first test.. guess what were are currently below it.. next excluding pz would be. areas of 3843 3310 3424 another chance 3918 3821 3745 3671 3423 3201 3027 and so on.. another method says it touches 3424 or 3017..

DO NOT TRADE WHAT I POSTED..its unproven..

good luck all and good pippinn.. to the guys looking for students sign me up.. im always interested in learning..
__________________
reviewing diary/../ need to practice what i preach

NO, cut them way before that. Many people here recommend 2%.
Myself, I recommend 1%.

hows everyone today?

Whatever bro... on the days I win and you lose, I'll buy a round and we'll compare notes. When you win and I lose, you can buy a round and we'll compare notes. When we both lose, Jaywalker can buy a round and we'll forget the notes.

Btw... whaddya think of my makeover? I used a 50% off coupon someone stuck under my windshield wiper in the parking lot at walmart.

I'm kinda surprised that AK4X hasn't mentioned starting a journal to you or do such things only apply to traders without the V things...a genuine question so please don't bite my ass.

1-2% of your current account?

i cant believe jw started a war *L* ... on second thought... yeah i can...

im scallping until nfp..anyone with mt4 use fratual indies? if so do you trust them ... like them?

I like to use the 1 hour and 4 hour fractals as guides when drawing trend lines and significant turning points. They're good for such purposes.

Yes, my view is that you should not risk more then 1% of your total account value.
I've risked way more in the past ................. and lost.
I am profitable now since more then a year, but I still have to recover money that I lost in 2005, 2006 and 2007.

Shamu

what bout 5 and 15 such as a 4hr or day trend reversal?

huh??? lost me.. ask me in simple minded terms.. write slow cause i cant read fast...

I haven't had luck with them or found a good way to use them for such purposes that's better than just a simple break of a trend line or s/r line on smaller time frames so I tend to stick with what I know and use the trend line break and s/r line breaks on such charts.

Sorry Gator! You're caught in the middle of a but quite valid snipe. I can not believe that it is 4:30am and I'm still trading. Tried to sleep but can't...bummer!