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  • #103,081
  • May 30, 2009 1:11pm May 30, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting stewrigh
Don't normally look for chart patterns - except when they fit my bias lol.

But is this a W formation??

Attachment
I like W formations. I call 'W' as 'wads of money'. Whenever I see that pattern that's what I think of, but trading it requires accepting the usual risk. Personally I don't think this pattern would play out to any large degree. With the right arm higher, maybe. Now, off to study my commodity charts.
  • #103,082
  • May 30, 2009 1:19pm May 30, 2009 1:19pm
I expect a pullback to 1.40xx area early next week. I would post a chart but it would show a whole s***load (7) of fib retracements/projections all targeting the current price zone. But the key ones are 78.6% from Dec '08 swing high and 50% from alltime high.

But zone or no zone price action determines everything.
  • #103,083
  • May 30, 2009 1:56pm May 30, 2009 1:56pm
Never if... always when.

Just wait for the signal.

Too far. Too fast. Too much period.

The bulls probably push to 42 and maybe a little above... but that should be it.

Equities are about to take a large dump.

Either way... she's coming down soon.
  • #103,084
  • May 30, 2009 2:47pm May 30, 2009 2:47pm
I'm holding on to my longs till 4250 with a TS. If I get stopped out no big deal, made lots of pips last week. Thank you EU!
  • #103,085
  • May 30, 2009 3:14pm May 30, 2009 3:14pm
Food for thought:

Market moves in three directions
1. Up
2. Down
3. Range (sideways)

Is this time for it to form a wide range around 1.4000 on daily timeframe?

Any thoughts will be highly appreciated.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #103,086
  • May 30, 2009 4:05pm May 30, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting Chicky
Food for thought:

Market moves in three directions
1. Up
2. Down
3. Range (sideways)

Is this time for it to form a wide range around 1.4000 on daily timeframe?

Any thoughts will be highly appreciated.
Hello Chicky my friend,

I do believe that the ranging will be a little bit higher between 1.42 and 1.47 ....my opinion based on D1.
  • #103,087
  • May 30, 2009 4:33pm May 30, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting Rednose
Hello Chicky my friend,

I do believe that the ranging will be a little bit higher between 1.42 and 1.47 ....my opinion based on D1.
Thanks for the feedback Rednose,

You maybe right.

I am of the "opinion" that it could be a 500/700 pip range above or below psycho level of 1.4000. The next major spike up or down may set range boundaries.

If you are right, on next spike up the present level my serve as lower boundary for a range that is parallel to Sept 08 retrace.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #103,088
  • May 30, 2009 4:45pm May 30, 2009 4:45pm
Quoting Chicky
Thanks for the feedback Rednose,

You maybe right.

I am of the "opinion" that it could be a 500/700 pip range above or below psycho level of 1.4000. The next major spike up or down may set range boundaries.

If you are right, on next spike up the present level my serve as lower boundary for a range that is parallel to Sept 08 retrace.
That was exactly what I though. But there´s a possibility of going down hard based on the bearish butterfly on H4....
  • #103,089
  • May 30, 2009 4:47pm May 30, 2009 4:47pm
Quoting Rednose
That was exactly what I though. But there´s a possibility of going down hard based on the bearish butterfly on H4....
Not to mention the 50% fib of the drop from 1.60 to 1.23...
  • #103,090
  • May 30, 2009 4:49pm May 30, 2009 4:49pm
Quoting F.x.
Not to mention the 50% fib of the drop from 1.60 to 1.23...
That's the MONS-TER area to be watching, although Euro has a weekly close above 1.41, not seen since sept '08
  • #103,091
  • May 30, 2009 4:50pm May 30, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting F.x.
Not to mention the 50% fib of the drop from 1.60 to 1.23...
Totally right on that.
  • #103,092
  • May 30, 2009 4:55pm May 30, 2009 4:55pm
Quoting Rednose
That was exactly what I though. But there´s a possibility of going down hard based on the bearish butterfly on H4....
I have switched my method to a low risk one. However, had I followed my previous method would have started a selling spree right now. Why? The market has still not shown a decent retrace. Of course it has shown two retraces on its way up from 1.3450, but not a decent one to my standards. But now I only follow the trend or stay at sidelines.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #103,093
  • May 30, 2009 4:59pm May 30, 2009 4:59pm
what currencies are the "safe haven"...that's all you need to know.

Anyone have any suggestions?
  • #103,094
  • May 30, 2009 5:02pm May 30, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
what currencies are the "safe haven"...that's all you need to know.

Anyone have any suggestions?
Probably currencies of commodity based economies, in longer term.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #103,095
  • May 30, 2009 5:07pm May 30, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting Chicky
I have switched my method to a low risk one. However, had I followed my previous method would have started a selling spree right now. Why? The market has still not shown a decent retrace. Of course it has shown two retraces on its way up from 1.3450, but not a decent one to my standards. But now I only follow the trend or stay at sidelines.
Low risk sounds good....I do believe we´re going up a little bit before a serious retrace happens.....
  • #103,096
  • May 30, 2009 5:10pm May 30, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
what currencies are the "safe haven"...that's all you need to know.

Anyone have any suggestions?
Well, I trade only EUR/USD and facing the actually sitrep I don´t see a safe haven.....
  • #103,097
  • May 30, 2009 5:35pm May 30, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
what currencies are the "safe haven"...that's all you need to know.

Anyone have any suggestions?
Safe heavens are where the money flocks to in times of uncertainties / risk aversion / unwinding. Usually dollar, treasury and gold.

See EURUSD aug '08, sept '08, oct '08 montly candles.
  • #103,098
  • Edited 5:52pm May 30, 2009 5:39pm | Edited 5:52pm
Quoting Rednose
Low risk sounds good....I do believe we´re going up a little bit before a serious retrace happens.....
Hi Rednose/Chicky,

I started a spreadsheet (as a part of my system) calculating the daily range for EU (H-L). The data so far is from 21st April till Friday last week. The average for the bullish runs up for this period is 414 pips per run. On Friday the total bullish range for 2 days was already 435 pips, which is about average. So I am speculating that we will hopefully see about 100 pips up.

I think stats like this might help to get a feel for when the pair is about to turn together with the other confluential ( a new clever word I learned on FF LOL)things of course.
  • #103,099
  • May 30, 2009 6:00pm May 30, 2009 6:00pm
using demark's TD Sequential TDSTs, don't see why someone would be short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #103,100
  • May 30, 2009 6:00pm May 30, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting cammomile
Hi Rednose/Chicky,

I started a spreadsheet (as a part of my system) calculating the daily range for EU (H-L). The data so far is from 21st April till Friday last week. The median for the bullish runs up for this period is 379 pips (average 414 pips) per run. The retracement range is 195 pips median (239 pips average) per bearish run. On Friday the total bullish range for 2 days was already 435 pips, which is about average. So I am speculating that we will hopefully see about 100 pips up.

I think stats like this might help to get a feel...
Cammomile,

Thanks for sharing. Sometimes we like to do the things in our own way. Me too feel more comfortable with caculations although we have luxury of using tools like oscillators and moving averages available also in a visiual form.

I use a six inch ruler as my primay measurement tool and a spreadsheet to calculate max possible drawdown on a trade.
The Thief of Wall Street
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