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  • #102,781
  • May 29, 2009 5:33am May 29, 2009 5:33am
Hi guys,

any thought on what the market reaction to
-5.7% GDP ?
  • #102,782
  • May 29, 2009 5:33am May 29, 2009 5:33am
Quoting stewrigh
Fx where are you drawing your trendline from?

Is it on the daily tf

Here's a chart I posted on May 22, this was just a quick mockup of the lines I was looking at from my actual trading chart so it's not as precise but you get the idea.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: may22.jpg Size: 98 KB
  • #102,783
  • May 29, 2009 5:34am May 29, 2009 5:34am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Come on...with that logic then all commodities are currencies.

Yeah but gold is different.

It is a store of value - hedge against inflation and it used to be held by banks to back up a countries currency.

Do you remember when currencies were valued by the gold standard.

No its not a currency per se but its pretty damn close.

Krugerrands and Sovereigns are currencies and they are made from gold.
  • #102,784
  • May 29, 2009 5:34am May 29, 2009 5:34am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
It was a coin flip. after breaking to new highs and current commodities hype, the odds favored the longs. I closed mine last night at the "high" before the next leg up...hehe. All is well, but part of me wanted to double up and make $$$$ today. But I decided to take risk off the table. Perhaps I picked a bad time to remove risk, but my friend we must always remember: There will always be another trade.
yea Ticker sure , there always be other trades, but i mean the whole upmove i mean in equities and risk in general, just looks a bit too fast too furious, i have followed your bullish sentiment towards AUD but i didn't participate there, and that was a winning situation considering the rate differential, china stimuluses etc , but this eur upmove, dunno really dunno. Now we have to consider that EU is above 200 DMA and the markets will be getting thinner, so i don't know if keeping positions for long time is good strategy or not. one thing i know is that S&P will not go to 666 anymore and oil will never go to 33, that is all i know, for the eu, will the corrections put the pair in range, dunno.

Gods of the markets bless us all
  • #102,785
  • May 29, 2009 5:34am May 29, 2009 5:34am
...is this borderline NUts on the USD or maybe I should go buy my grandpas SHEKELS...GBP and even the CAD beating up the BUCK...sorry but this is not gonna play out to long.
  • #102,786
  • May 29, 2009 5:39am May 29, 2009 5:39am
Blusky don't pay attention to news. Just read them think about them and thats it. Trade what you see on the chart. EU has broken up above 1.405 resistance level. In order for this to keep going we need to stay above 1.4050 and break up above 1.416. Month end moves are going to happen today and going to be very volaitile. Stand aside if you can. Momentum is still up but I would pay attention to how the weekley candle closes on Sunday. If there are signs of exhaustion I think EU is prime to be shorted but be patient and watch happens on weekley candle.
  • #102,787
  • May 29, 2009 5:40am May 29, 2009 5:40am
Quoting knuckledrag
Yes currencies are only a way of storing your accumulated commodities

Som therefore commodities are a store of wealth and not money.
  • #102,788
  • May 29, 2009 5:42am May 29, 2009 5:42am
Quoting vinesh2
Blusky don't pay attention to news. Just read them think about them and thats it. Trade what you see on the chart. EU has broken up above 1.405 resistance level. In order for this to keep going we need to stay above 1.4050 and break up above 1.416. Month end moves are going to happen today and going to be very volaitile. Stand aside if you can. Momentum is still up but I would pay attention to how the weekley candle closes on Sunday. If there are signs of exhaustion I think EU is prime to be shorted but be patient and watch happens on weekley candle....

Hi Vinesh,
Good to see you here again. Thanks for your analysis. Can you please be so kind to explain a little further about the weekly candle close and what to look for when spotting signs of exhaustion? thank you
  • #102,789
  • May 29, 2009 5:42am May 29, 2009 5:42am
Now we just bounced off the other (yellow) TL to the pip...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: may29c.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #102,790
  • May 29, 2009 5:43am May 29, 2009 5:43am
Quoting arthurb
yea Ticker sure , there always be other trades, but i mean the whole upmove i mean in equities and risk in general, just looks a bit too fast too furious, i have followed your bullish sentiment towards AUD but i didn't participate there, and that was a winning situation considering the rate differential, china stimuluses etc , but this eur upmove, dunno really dunno. Now we have to consider that EU is above 200 DMA and the markets will be getting thinner, so i don't know if keeping positions for long time is good strategy or not. one thing i know...
We are all blessed.

I was just thinking looking at these GDP numbers...we have inflationary pressures and negative growth...you know what that means. Stagflation, basicially the worst case scenario. The commodity prices must come down, the whole rational that US printing money is the cause is not an issue. All that printed money is just siting in banks as capital, it's not like consumer have any money to spend on products to drive prices. Look at CPI around the world. Prices are dropping but commodities are rising? When Oil was at 140 last year, core CPI was running below average, remember the pundits kept saying, inflation is not up, meanwhile people salaries are flat and milk was $4 a gallon.

this is just another china manipulation of the markets IMO. They caused the ramp up last year, but cutting exports of grains, and energy intensive products like steel...they implemented the cuts over the christamas holiday of 2007, and the news NEVER mentiond it. It basically collapsed our economy. It's a war without guns.

I hope the greenback comes back real soon.
  • #102,791
  • May 29, 2009 5:45am May 29, 2009 5:45am
Quoting Forex ATM
...is this borderline NUts on the USD or maybe I should go buy my grandpas SHEKELS...GBP and even the CAD beating up the BUCK...sorry but this is not gonna play out to long.
LOL

Long sheckles!
  • #102,792
  • May 29, 2009 5:45am May 29, 2009 5:45am
Attached Image
  • #102,793
  • May 29, 2009 5:46am May 29, 2009 5:46am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
what ever happen to USD - EURO parity??
Yep, I remember a lot of experienced traders calling that one. Haven't heard much from them lately though ....

Just get Reuters to start saying Spain, Portugal, Ireland etc are going to pull out of the Euro (or not) - that might start the ball rolling.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #102,794
  • May 29, 2009 5:47am May 29, 2009 5:47am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
We are all blessed.

I was just thinking looking at these GDP numbers...we have inflationary pressures and negative growth...you know what that means. Stagflation, basicially the worst case scenario. The commodity prices must come down, the whole rational that US printing money is the cause is not an issue. All that printed money is just siting in banks as capital, it's not like consumer have any money to spend on products to drive prices. Look at CPI around the world. Prices are dropping but commodities are rising? When Oil was at 140 last year,...
More money in circulation in time like these just mean inflation, inflation and more inflation. Simply not enough growth to absorb the about of money in circulation.

The Fed' needs to increase interest rates. Yep, it will hurt but not half as after these quantitative easing plans (I never came acorss that term before this crisis was it made especially for the event).
  • #102,795
  • May 29, 2009 5:49am May 29, 2009 5:49am
Is this thing coiling again for the next leg up.
  • #102,796
  • May 29, 2009 5:51am May 29, 2009 5:51am
Quoting Forex ATM
Charts pointing towards a low re-test of Dec 18 2008 stops at 78.44

Would not think it should go lower at least in the short term.

Is the Bottom Near?
  • #102,797
  • May 29, 2009 5:53am May 29, 2009 5:53am
Quoting Patience
Yep, I remember a lot of experienced traders calling that one. Haven't heard much from them lately though ....
I only remember one that was very loud.

cesarn, very good point - too few people are looking at d1+ charts.
  • #102,798
  • Edited 6:08am May 29, 2009 5:56am | Edited 6:08am
Quoting stewrigh
Is this thing coiling again for the next leg up.

Not on my panel.
  • #102,799
  • May 29, 2009 5:56am May 29, 2009 5:56am
Quoting notch
More money in circulation in time like these just mean inflation, inflation and more inflation. Simply not enough growth to absorb the about of money in circulation.

The Fed' needs to increase interest rates. Yep, it will hurt but not half as after these quantitative easing plans (I never came acorss that term before this crisis was it made especially for the event).
I agree rates need to start coming up...this free money to bankers who are charging more now in interest is just fuel for this inflationary fire.

Maybe that will be the shoe to drop...raising rates will bring some rationality perhaps.
  • #102,800
  • May 29, 2009 5:58am May 29, 2009 5:58am
Quoting stewrigh
Is this thing coiling again for the next leg up.

see you guys in 1.4185
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