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  • #102,301
  • May 28, 2009 2:39pm May 28, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting The Fool
Hey, by gum, that sounds pretty good. Why don't more people trade that way - do you ever wonder?

Of course, one does not have to limit oneself to one trade per week. With a small TP and the right PA conditions one can make many trades per day, probably many trades per hour, and still have close to 100% success.

Right now I am just playing with a 3 pip TP, but these PA conditions are not the best. I am still exploring in order to find the best PA/currency pair times...
wow 3 pip tp it might seem easy to get but its more like "rocket science", not to mention the total amount of spreads you will be paying per year,
  • #102,302
  • May 28, 2009 2:41pm May 28, 2009 2:41pm
Thank you, Fisherman.

I have a default sl on these short trades. It is about 5x larger than the TP, typically. Risk/reward 5:1 - what madness, right? Very unorthodox. Well, I have not had a sl hit yet. Admittedly, I have only placed a few hundred of these trades so far. The key is to understand PA and to trade in the right conditions.

An interesting pair that regularly has the right conditions is the AUD/NZD. Regularly ranges sideways and has 20-30 pip range even on the 1M tf. Only problem is the high spread (15 pips or more....)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #102,303
  • May 28, 2009 2:43pm May 28, 2009 2:43pm
[quote=F.xOr you can do what I did (gave in to the "need to trade") and ended up doing it back wards (yes, that is a short entry on the low with an exit on the high...) [/quote]
Hey were in the same boat I see. Bulls need to give it up for now and let it rest down father.
  • #102,304
  • May 28, 2009 2:44pm May 28, 2009 2:44pm
Quoting Robot
wow 3 pip tp it might seem easy to get but its more like "rocket science", not to mention the total amount of spreads you will be paying per year,
I'm not sweatin' the spreads, not on the E/U anyway - just the cost of doing business.

Actually, it is pretty easy - I suppose this is why it's so subversive.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #102,305
  • May 28, 2009 2:47pm May 28, 2009 2:47pm
Quoting The Fool
Hi F.x.,

Yes, I think you are right about trading around the S/R levels. I am looking for sideways price action, but with some good volatility, too. I seem to find it around the FO/LO pretty regularly. For instance, if I'm trading on the 1M tf, I look for runs of 3+ pip candles; if on the 5M tf, runs of 5 pip candles, etc. When I see the PA jumping up and down on these small tf, I know that a buy/sell with a tight TP is going to get hit.

Trading these little wavelets such as are evident on the short tf in E/U right now can be done with pretty...
I would strongly suggest zooming out and looking only at the 1H and 4H charts. Would be worth trying it for a week anyway, just to see if you learn anything from it. I bet you get your 3 pips with EVERY trade you take that week ;-)

My position size has increased as my success has increased, but you also have to be carefull that your success doesn't make you "too comfortable" with having open positions, or you'll end up opening them just for the hell of it (what I did on that last trade...) I actually think I do best just trading before lunchtime, and only if the setup is right. If not, come back the next morning... because it seems when I wake up and look at the chart for the first time each day, it's so easy to see what is happening and where my entries for the day should be (if those levels are hit.)

I have never even looked at another pair, just the EUR/USD. And at this point I don't even want to consider it. I just don't see the benefits in doing so.

Funny you should ask about trading times... I actually used to think "I should just trade tokyo and sydney and not even both with NY/London..." But that was because they usually had a set range, and I would just put in a position, and double down if price moved against me, because 9/10 price would stay in range and I'd always come out ahead.

I guess you could do it that way... but it's going to bite you in the ass sooner or later... it always will if you do it that way...
  • #102,306
  • May 28, 2009 2:58pm May 28, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting notch
How large is your typical SL?
I am flexible, as I am always trying to get a feel for the PA at hand. 3-pip default TP trades have a default sl of 15 pips, but I might slide that in some. 5-pip TP goes with a 20-pip sl. I do also adjust the default TP, as well, depending on the PA. If I have walked the right into a developing trendlet, of course I will try to let trades run for all they are worth.

I do close trades at times if I believe I have walked the wrong way into a developing trendlet. I do not want to misrepresent myself as having achieved a 100% success rate. But I believe close to that is possible if one limits the TP target in the right PA conditions.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #102,307
  • May 28, 2009 2:59pm May 28, 2009 2:59pm
Quoting The Fool
I am flexible, as I am always trying to get a feel for the PA at hand. 3-pip default TP trades have a default sl of 15 pips, but I might slide that in some. 5-pip TP goes with a 20-pip sl. I do also adjust the default TP, as well, depending on the PA. If I have walked the right into a developing trendlet, of course I will try to let trades run for all they are worth.

I do close trades at times if I believe I have walked the wrong way into a developing trendlet. I do not want to misrepresent myself as having achieved a 100% success rate. But I...

How many trades do you make a day on average?
  • #102,308
  • May 28, 2009 3:02pm May 28, 2009 3:02pm
Symetric wedge on [EDIT]M5 - sorry[/EDIT] about to break.
  • #102,309
  • May 28, 2009 3:05pm May 28, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Symetric wedge on [EDIT]M5 - sorry[/EDIT] about to break.

Post a chart.
  • #102,310
  • May 28, 2009 3:06pm May 28, 2009 3:06pm
Thanks F.x.,

I do of course look at higher tf up to daily. Essentially I probably play my charts just like any typical day-trader might. I calculate pivot points, draw trendlines. I try to watch and understand the movements of related and/or correlated curencies, commodities, and stock indices. I would love to be able to accurately predict lows and highs as some of the FF traders do.

On the other hand, I'd be happy to settle for 3-5 pip winners if I was confident those trades were going to win 99% of the time. I'd have no problem throwin down that I would be more profitable with that strategy than someone who was agonizing over picking tops and bottoms.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #102,311
  • May 28, 2009 3:06pm May 28, 2009 3:06pm
Some weak signals it will break low. Use tight SL on this config because bigger payout over longer term in in view if it breaks north as tomorrow would be a bulls day.
  • #102,312
  • May 28, 2009 3:09pm May 28, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting notch
Post a chart.
here ya go
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  • #102,313
  • May 28, 2009 3:11pm May 28, 2009 3:11pm
Quoting notch
How many trades do you make a day on average?
I have not counted but I do know that when I have the PA that I am looking for I might make 15 or more per hour. I do know that I have made over 100 pips per hour on several occasions, but typically I don't count pips, I am just trying to watch the account balance grow. In about 3 hours of trading yesterday I increased the account by about 2.5%.

I am discovering that "less is more" - and I am trying to limit my trading activity to the times when there are the best PA conditions. At any rate, the negative aspect of trading this way (unless I could learn to automate it - which I believe could be done) is that it is laborious and 2-4 hrs/day is plenty.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #102,314
  • May 28, 2009 3:21pm May 28, 2009 3:21pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Some weak signals it will break low. Use tight SL on this config because bigger payout over longer term in in view if it breaks north as tomorrow would be a bulls day.
What weak signals? What config are you talking about? And break north tomorrow? Would be a bulls day?
I've read some ridiculous stuff today, eu closing above 4050 today, eu retrace is over, eu moving up in a matter of minutes yada yada yada. Now I'm not a regular in this particular thread but it seems most of the "analysis" here holds no weight. How about some reasoning to the claims or a chart or two explaining why a certain call is made instead of splurting some bs claims a 10 year old could make reading off dailyfx.
Thank You
  • #102,315
  • May 28, 2009 3:23pm May 28, 2009 3:23pm
Well its about that magic time 4:30 and im expecting a nice drop thorough the night to end up somewhere around 38 3820S from our good friends overseas that always look high... ha not much movement up and has stalled at the triple top so down is the way im looking!!!!
  • #102,316
  • May 28, 2009 3:30pm May 28, 2009 3:30pm
anyone else have an opinion on which way its headed and why here is my chart on the 30m and with bad news its likely to head in the same direction as yesterday...... right??? Its also just above where it started same time 24 hrs ago
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  • #102,317
  • May 28, 2009 3:31pm May 28, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting wormboy
What weak signals? What config are you talking about? And break north tomorrow? Would be a bulls day?
I've read some ridiculous stuff today, eu closing above 4050 today, eu retrace is over, eu moving up in a matter of minutes yada yada yada. Now I'm not a regular in this particular thread but it seems most of the "analysis" here holds no weight. How about some reasoning to the claims or a chart or two explaining why a certain call is made instead of splurting some bs claims a 10 year old could make reading off dailyfx.
All right. Just lazy I think. Methinks everybody should do his own reasoning but what the hell:

Short signals weak (guess could be a bit tardive by the end I finish with this):
1. Oil
2. Gold
3. EUR/GBP
4. SPX
5. THV
6. My indicator that I do not wish to make public since I don't know if I should referr to it
7. Inability of PA to break R1 for hours (i mean reach at least M4)

As for the long payout: IF the last hour of NY session does not dump the price, then PA finishes the day around R1 and the pivot will be higher than [EDIT]today[EDIT] = banks change bias. Do you also need more explanation as to what happens when banks change bias? Or why?
  • #102,318
  • May 28, 2009 3:39pm May 28, 2009 3:39pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Do you also need more explanation as to what happens when banks change bias? Or why?
Yes please. Thank you.
Thank You
  • #102,319
  • May 28, 2009 3:44pm May 28, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting wormboy
Yes please. Thank you.
Are we still talking why tomorrow is gonna be a bulls day or you just want to pi$$ me off?
  • #102,320
  • May 28, 2009 3:46pm May 28, 2009 3:46pm
Hi boys and girls,

Done with testing, ready for action....
Hope to learn a lot from you!
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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