Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 171 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #3,401
  • May 27, 2009 6:23pm May 27, 2009 6:23pm
Quoting strat
For what it's worth, it is a classic complete EW meeting all the EW requirements. An A-B-C pattern USUALLY follows a completed EW.

If you look closely, you can even see the 5 wave pattern WITHIN wave 3!

Because it is so obvious, it may become self fulfilling much like TLs and fib retraces but only time will tell.

Whether it helps us or not, we ONLY trade PASR - end of story.

Elliot waves, hmm, I have read about them, and even tried trading them on demo for a very short time. It seemed to me that they rarely worked out.
I have pretty much forgotten about them and do not really pay much attention to them. Now maybe it will form a hammer tomorrow at a support level. Until then though I am not touching it.
  • #3,402
  • May 28, 2009 12:53am May 28, 2009 12:53am
I know for a fact that this is a critical junction for GBP/USD. Price has just put in a Shooting Star on the Daily at the 1.6000 psycho S/R. But also, if one looks to the bigger picture, one would see that price has also run into the 38.2% fib retrace of the initial downward move.

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/1052/gbpusdx.gif
Bang.
  • #3,403
  • May 28, 2009 2:15am May 28, 2009 2:15am
Do you not pull your fibs from right to left? Anyway, it is at a fib level from that big down move whichever way it gets pulled. I'm hoping to see it down to 15626 region.

Strat - update. Still here and still reading everyday. Had a few ATM trade successes, but haven't had a good long ride yet, just quickies! Have had a few orders not filled. Overall though I am seeing the power of the daily chart. Once I advance onto different candle (only looking for SS, hammers) trades I'm sure I'll see more opportunities.
  • #3,404
  • Edited 3:46am May 28, 2009 3:45am | Edited 3:46am
Hi Strat & Team

Just thought I'd post an example this morning to show, that Strat's teaching of sticking to trading with the trend, rather than trying to push against the momentum, is so important.

Many people may have taken the PB, especially as the close of the PB (note I do listen Baba G!) was within the previous candle, and at a R line...

Cheers Nicole
Attached Image
  • #3,405
  • May 28, 2009 4:31am May 28, 2009 4:31am
Quoting Bloom
........I'm hoping to see it down to 15626 region.
I have the shooting star from yesterday and am waiting for clear PA in today's bar. So far it has made a clear LL but there is still 12 hours to go for me in London.

I am curious about the way in which people have different figures for SR lines etc. For example why does Bloom have 15626 when my clearest next S line is 155677? Do different feeds make that difference. After that I have 152228ish as major SR.

The current price is way above the 20, 50 and Boss 20 and TL from the SL in early March - all rising strongly. Any trade would be counter that trend (elastic band pull?) but might be considered a retracement to the longer term DT from July 2008 to Jan 2009 at 136792. Mind you 141041ish is the SL of Jan/Feb 2002 and has been a strong area of low support - PPZ? - and this current 3 month uptrend could be considered a possible start of a longer term move from there........but this speculation.

Big Boss is VERY bullish and likely to remain so at this end of the month and the Boss has made a HH, whatever that bar will turn out to be at the end of Friday.

Both indicate that a short from the present price action (if confirmed) would be counter trend and therefore an ATM trade with first target at 155677 and the second at 152228. SL depends on the bar at the end of today and if PA is clearly indicating the counter-trend development.

WAIT therefore.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdd.28.05.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #3,406
  • Edited 5:25am May 28, 2009 4:49am | Edited 5:25am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Dan,

i see you have not mentioned a possible haulting point of .8500 which was support back in OCT of 1996. do you guys feel comfortable selling into that? or are you just putting more weight on the recent S/R and watching PA?
Hi Craig,

I don't have that level on my feed at that time, or anything anywhere near it to be honest, so i can't comment.

Maybe you could post a chart?

Cheers
Dan

Addition: Craig, to answer your question a little better; assuming I had that level on my charts, i would be inclined to pay more attention to the more recent strength of the downtrend.

I would be looking at the 0.8500 to see how price reacted there, but it probably wouldn't stop me taking a trade if we saw a strong close below 0.8640 with a re-test as resistance and some PA to let us in.

I manage my positions quite aggressively so a pause at this level would give a chance to move my stop to BE and/or take a little profit.

I hope that explains a little better.

Cheers
Dan
  • #3,407
  • Edited 5:43am May 28, 2009 4:57am | Edited 5:43am
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Strat & Team

Just thought I'd post an example this morning to show, that Strat's teaching of sticking to trading with the trend, rather than trying to push against the momentum, is so important.

Many people may have taken the PB, especially as the close of the PB (note I do listen Baba G!) was within the previous candle, and at a R line...

Cheers Nicole
Hi Pipster,

CADJPY is in such a nice, supported uptrend, I got in at 83.00 from last week's BUEB and moved my stop last night on that SS as it could have been a retracement, but today's bar has shot straight through it

Next resistance on my feed is just below 87.00, so we'll see if the bulls are strong enough to push through here, or whether we'll see some profit taking.

Trading with the trend is so important and on this pair, it was easy to identify. On others however it can be much less clear. My advice to anyone would be to stick to pairs where the trend is easily spotted either with higher swing highs/higher swing lows and/or trendlines. If you stick with this approach, you're in for an easier ride. I'm not one for trading the retracements although i appreciate others are more adventurous.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #3,408
  • Edited 6:43am May 28, 2009 5:11am | Edited 6:43am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Dan,

i see you have not mentioned a possible haulting point of .8500 which was support back in OCT of 1996. do you guys feel comfortable selling into that? or are you just putting more weight on the recent S/R and watching PA?
Hi Craig

I don't have any support at 0.8500 on my data in Oct 1996. The nearest I have is a Swing Low @ 0.8490 in Sep 95 with some further touches @ 0.8490-0.8500 in Apr & Jul 96.

On the last major up leg from 0.77 to 0.98 there was only a minor correction off 0.8525.

So IMHO the next significant support is at 0.8250 the previous significant Swing Low. But then again I'm only new to the path and still learning.

I would welcome any feedback on the levels that I've drawn on the charts.
  • #3,409
  • May 28, 2009 5:13am May 28, 2009 5:13am
Oops - forgot to post the charts

Thanks
Greg

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP SR 1.png Size: 47 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP SR 2.png Size: 40 KB
  • #3,410
  • May 28, 2009 7:25am May 28, 2009 7:25am
Quoting AminAS
I know for a fact that this is a critical junction for GBP/USD. Price has just put in a Shooting Star on the Daily at the 1.6000 psycho S/R. But also, if one looks to the bigger picture, one would see that price has also run into the 38.2% fib retrace of the initial downward move.

http://img20.imageshack.us/img20/1052/gbpusdx.gif
Good lad, Amin. Looking at THE BIG PICTURE in each time frame sometimes gives us a different view on the trade we might take if we otherwise were too close in just looking at the immediate action.

A fault of many new traders is just focusing on the move at the current bar rather than looking at it in context of not only the bars around it, but the swings around it.

What I have done in the past is have 2 charts of the same pair split on my screen -one was for the immediate action and the other was THE BIG PICTURE. Many times, looking at the big picture, I changed my mind on a potential trade and on others, justified taking a trade.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,411
  • May 28, 2009 7:37am May 28, 2009 7:37am
Quoting Bloom
Do you not pull your fibs from right to left? Anyway, it is at a fib level from that big down move whichever way it gets pulled. I'm hoping to see it down to 15626 region.

Strat - update. Still here and still reading everyday. Had a few ATM trade successes, but haven't had a good long ride yet, just quickies! Have had a few orders not filled. Overall though I am seeing the power of the daily chart. Once I advance onto different candle (only looking for SS, hammers) trades I'm sure I'll see more opportunities.
Malcolm,

Where and how fibs are pulled depends on how "you" have your fibs set up. It doesn't really matter as long as you understand them and the logic. On a downtrend we just need to measure the high of the retrace and note where it is at, so the "0" of your fibs should be at the low or the beginning of the retrace.

Don't have a specific retrace "fixed" in your thinking. We all know in a perfect world, the 50% retrace has a high probability of turning around. Sometimes though, in a strong trend, it will only be profit taking rather than selling so the retrace might only be 23.6% or less before it goes on its way again. Just watch for PA at all levels.

Good progress so moving nicely forward a step at a time - better than the other eh? Don't be in a rush to get in a trend, spend more time doing ATM trades because if done correctly, with a PLAN, these will build your confidence quicker and deeper.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,412
  • May 28, 2009 7:40am May 28, 2009 7:40am
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Pipster,

CADJPY is in such a nice, supported uptrend, I got in at 83.00 from last week's BUEB and moved my stop last night on that SS as it could have been a retracement, but today's bar has shot straight through it

Next resistance on my feed is just below 87.00, so we'll see if the bulls are strong enough to push through here, or whether we'll see some profit taking.

Trading with the trend is so important and on this pair, it was easy to identify. On others however it can be much less clear. My advice to anyone would be to stick...
I agree a lovely looking chart with a clear trend, but when you say you don't trade the retracements, do you mean having entered you hold on through the steps of the trend trusting that it will continue upwards or do you come out at what you estimate are the SHs and then re-enter at what you take to be a SL?

Charts look pretty clear in retrospect but at the time do you ever wonder if you are getting a reversal?

I notice from your comment that you entered at 83 and have traded the up trend leg so far, so I think that must be the answer to my question, but will you come out when PA suggests the start of a retracement? I anticipate the answer 'Yes' to that question.

Sorry if this seems a bit or a ramble but I tend to work through these things out loud to myself anyway. Hope you don't mind me rambling a bit to you!
  • #3,413
  • May 28, 2009 7:42am May 28, 2009 7:42am
Quoting FxPippy
Hi Strat & Team

Just thought I'd post an example this morning to show, that Strat's teaching of sticking to trading with the trend, rather than trying to push against the momentum, is so important.

Many people may have taken the PB, especially as the close of the PB (note I do listen Baba G!) was within the previous candle, and at a R line...

Cheers Nicole
PB? What's a PB?

Ah, I see, a Pretty Bar for Pretty People!

Nice one, Nicole!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,414
  • May 28, 2009 7:48am May 28, 2009 7:48am
Quoting Lotuselanman
I agree a lovely looking chart with a clear trend, but when you say you don't trade the retracements, do you mean having entered you hold on through the steps of the trend trusting that it will continue upwards or do you come out at what you estimate are the SHs and then re-enter at what you take to be a SL?

Charts look pretty clear in retrospect but at the time do you ever wonder if you are getting a reversal?

I notice from your comment that you entered at 83 and have traded the up trend leg so far, so I think that must be the answer to my question,...
Mmm, no easy answer LEM. I protect my profits very hard so i don't feel comfortable sitting on a retracement in case it turns into a full trend change.

For example, i have also been short USDCAD 1.1600 from the BEEB last week. Last night at around 9pm GMT, it looked like this pair was printing a mean looking hammer, so i closed my position instantly. If it does turn out to be a retracement only, then it should give us an opportunity to get back in, right?

I know Blackeagle will be frowning at the above paragraph but I'm only finding my way at the moment and i don't like to give my profits back to the broker.

I hope this explains it a little.

Dan
  • #3,415
  • May 28, 2009 8:00am May 28, 2009 8:00am
Quoting Lotuselanman
I have the shooting star from yesterday and am waiting for clear PA in today's bar....
Good analysis and conclusions, Christopher.

S&R lines will differ slightly with the different data we all have BUT will be RELATIVE and RESPECTIVE to your charts meaning that as long as you trade off the S&R on YOUR charts you will be OK - make sense?

A more likely reason will be different views on what is S&R and whether including major or minor S&R. In my earlier posts, readers have written that price stopped dead in its tracks on my S&R - even the daily moves as well as the swing moves. This was when I included ALL S&R lines. The problem with this is that (1), you end up with a chart looking like graph paper and (2), the S&R lines can actually restrict your thinking and stop you taking trades because you "see" so many lines in front of it.

How you identify S&R, once learned, comes down to personal preference - do you want to catch each wiggle or just the minor swings or just the major swings? Look at Blackeagle's posts - he looks at THE BIG PICTURE to identify the major swing S&R and puts them in red. Within those major swing lines, you can look for the next smaller swings and identify those in a less obvious colour (so that they don't distract you too much). Then, if you want to go further, identify the swings within the swings ad infinitum.

There are also different S&R to use and right now, I have switched to different S&R to see if it has any benefit - will keep everyone posted if there is a benefit.

Hope this helps - If you have problems in identifying S&R, let us know.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,416
  • May 28, 2009 8:07am May 28, 2009 8:07am
Quoting GregB
Oops - forgot to post the charts

Thanks
Greg

Attachment

Attachment
Greg, without going into detail, a quick glance tells me you have too many lines - read my reply to Lotuselanman and then go back and take all your lines off. Start with the BIG PICTURE and identify major swings. Then get closer and identify the minor swings. Always look for the obvious levels where PRICE was either SUPPORTED or REJECTED.

Then show us what you've got!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,417
  • May 28, 2009 8:08am May 28, 2009 8:08am
Quoting AstonDan
........... i don't like to give my profits back to the broker.

I hope this explains it a little.

Dan
Thanks Dan, it explains it very well, and is what I thought you were suggesting. It would take an enormous amount of understanding of the way a particular pair moves and nerves of steel to sit a potential trend out through all the step ups and down, particularly in the current market situation when trends seem to fizzle out almost for no reason.

I've noticed that in books where examples of 'trend riding' are given the analysis is usually in retrospect and little attention is paid to the stress involved in sitting out bar after bar in a volatile market. So it is often phrased: 'So you see, had you bought at X and then stayed in for the next 3? months you would have made Y number of pips without doing anything.' There is often a reference to an indicator of some kind like a golden cross or MA divergence.

I've been working through charts using the F12 key and trying to work out what happens when there is a swing of some kind. Sometimes it seems obvious, mostly though, at the moment it doesn't. Hammers and SS are rarer than one hopes methinks! But no doubt in time.....

But then I suppose that is why we are learning daily TF PASR!
  • #3,418
  • May 28, 2009 8:18am May 28, 2009 8:18am
Quoting AstonDan
Mmm, no easy answer LEM. I protect my profits very hard so i don't feel comfortable sitting on a retracement in case it turns into a full trend change....
Dan, Dan, Dan!

""Last night at around 9pm GMT, it looked like this pair was printing a mean looking hammer, so i closed my position instantly"".

You've taken 2 STEPS BACKWARDS! You are INTERFERING before the day bar has closed - you said you had stopped doing this!

Was this included in your PLAN? Did you have a PLAN? When you are trading a trend and you are FAT in profit (like you are), you can let it wriggle aboutmore! You have let your demons and gremlins back - "GREED" - this tells me you either didn't have a PLAN OR, you didn't trust your PLAN.

Sounds to me like you are reading too much of another thread that instills into their membership to get to BE as soon as possible and get out at the first S&R. You need to decide whether you are trading their style or ?

Disappointing, Dan, disappointing!

Get back on track, Dan!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,419
  • May 28, 2009 8:25am May 28, 2009 8:25am
Quoting strat
Dan, Dan, Dan!

""Last night at around 9pm GMT, it looked like this pair was printing a mean looking hammer, so i closed my position instantly"".

You've taken 2 STEPS BACKWARDS! You are INTERFERING before the day bar has closed - you said you had stopped doing this!

Was this included in your PLAN? Did you have a PLAN? When you are trading a trend and you are FAT in profit (like you are), you can let it wriggle aboutmore! You have let your demons and gremlins back - "GREED" - this tells me you...
i know i know, sorry boss - i'll go and sit in the corner. I honestly panicked when i saw it and i took all of two seconds to go flat.

I do like to move to BE quickly, but this is more about protecting capital than greed, although last night's scramble to close was purely greed!

Oh, BTW yes, my original plan was to see it reach 1.1000...i must trade my plan...i must trade my plan...i must trade my plan...
  • #3,420
  • May 28, 2009 8:53am May 28, 2009 8:53am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Dan,

i see you have not mentioned a possible haulting point of .8500 which was support back in OCT of 1996. do you guys feel comfortable selling into that? or are you just putting more weight on the recent S/R and watching PA?
I have seen the replies on this so let's take a shufty!

The level of 0.8500 is a minor swing within the major swing 0.8660 to 0.8234. We are more concerned with what price does at these major swings (levels) FIRST.

If price breaks the 0.8660 level, we would "expect" it to go to the next major support level, 0.8234, HOWEVER, the markets and particularly price, are not that kind to us and don't, unfortunately for us, travel in straight lines. We would therefore expect some kind of profit taking or "rest" at your 0.8500 level - this would create what I call my "wobble" before moving further down to the next support.

Hope this helps
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
7 traders viewing now