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  • #3,381
  • May 26, 2009 8:41pm May 26, 2009 8:41pm
Quoting waltwitham
I am respectfully submitting my first contribution to the thread. I have tried to internalize the content of the first 99 pages and felt the need to reword the trader's statement I found here for myself.

[left][b][font=Times New Roman][size=1]I am a professional trader. My job is to take acceptable risk. As I manage my trades, minimizing losses and letting my profits run, I am successful. Because I am a professional trader, I forgive myself easily for making rare mistakes and move on to new opportunities. I feel great that I have...
Walt, come on in and tell us your broker stories! Maybe you can get together with Golfer 27 and do a duet!

Take your time and post any questions you have. Glad to have you with us.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,382
  • May 26, 2009 8:43pm May 26, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting GregB
Hi Strat

Thanks for another informative post. I've had trouble in the past trying to determine which trend to trade with. It helps to see it laid out in a picture.

I've almost caught up on all the previous posts but at the moment one of the areas I'm struggling with is support and resistance lines on my charts. I tend to end up with too many. I still need to fully review some of the examples that you have given and it may fall into place with more practice.

Greg
Post a chart with your S&R on so that others can review. Have you studied Blackeagle's posts on S&R lines? He has done some excellent posts on how to select correct S&R.

Let us know
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,383
  • May 26, 2009 9:39pm May 26, 2009 9:39pm
Quoting waltwitham

As a professional trader, by this time next year, I will have increased my account by 1000%


Hi Walt

Some nice mods to the traders statement and probably a better idea to replace the monetary value with a percentage value. It all depends on what your starting balance is anyway.

Just a few thoughts on the "1000% increase in 1 year". While this may be achievable its quite a lofty target. With your experience this may be a reasonable target but for me my first target is to be consistently profitable.

The chart below shows a compounded monthly return of about 22% is required to increase an account by 1000 % (using a starting deposit of $10 000).

The chart next to it shows a compounded monthly return of 6% will double an account in 1 year.

I suppose all I'm really saying is that we need to set realistic goals with our level of experience to help keep the psyche side of our trading under control.

Greg

Attached Image

  • #3,384
  • May 26, 2009 10:22pm May 26, 2009 10:22pm
Quoting GregB
[left]
Hi Walt

Some nice mods to the traders statement and probably a better idea to replace the monetary value with a percentage value. It all depends on what your starting balance is anyway.

Just a few thoughts on the "1000% increase in 1 year". While this may be achievable its quite a lofty target. With your experience this may be a reasonable target but for me my first target is to be consistently profitable.

The chart below shows a compounded monthly return of about 22% is required to increase an account by 1000 % (using a starting deposit...
Don't under estimate yourselves. When I got the original statement, my first reaction also was to question the monetary value with the Professional. He immediately rebuked my concern and said that if I didn't accept the monetary value then I didn't really believe in and have confidence in myself. I therefore accepted his monetary value.

Me old mate, Jacko, says exactly the same thing, that it IS possible to make that monetary value and he is the living proof of it.

If you have a big enough pot to start with and already have proven yourself with a consistent equity growth over at least 3 years, it is definitely achievable!

The point is, that if you train your sub-conscious to believe you can do it, then you WILL do it - mind over matter. What our sub conscious doesn't like is negativity - it feeds off negativity and grows this into what we then observe when we trade with REAL money - FEAR and GREED. So many wannabe traders ignore the devastating effects of trading psychology which accounts for 90% of our success as traders.

Learn the basic trading skills as taught on here together with how we approach trading psychology and you WILL BELIEVE you will do it.

As Roy (30XTCi) has in his signature:

Success comes in CANS not cannots!

No cannots allowed on my thread!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,385
  • May 26, 2009 10:40pm May 26, 2009 10:40pm
I read your post on wobbles earlier, please note I am not planning on trading them until I have a lot more experience. With that said however, would the last couple of bars on Eur/Usd be considered the wobble for the up swing?
  • #3,386
  • May 26, 2009 10:48pm May 26, 2009 10:48pm
Quoting rgrace
I read your post on wobbles earlier, please note I am not planning on trading them until I have a lot more experience. With that said however, would the last couple of bars on Eur/Usd be considered the wobble for the up swing?
I wouldn't think of it on the swing from 4/22 to 5/22 because there is a more obvious pattern there - can you see it?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,387
  • May 26, 2009 11:00pm May 26, 2009 11:00pm
Quoting strat
I wouldn't think of it on the swing from 4/22 to 5/22 because there is a more obvious pattern there - can you see it?

It has pulled back to the 38.2 fib line and formed a hammer. It looks like a really weak pull back and with the Sunday bar and holiday bar, I am kind of ignoring those 2 bars. It has been trending upwards steadily stair stepping since 4/22 as well. If I had another down bar before the hammer it formed I would trade it, but, since there are not any significant down bars, it is hard to tell whether the last bar would be considered a hammer, or a hanging man.

It is in an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows. Is there more that I am missing?
  • #3,388
  • May 27, 2009 12:11am May 27, 2009 12:11am
Quoting Blackeagle
I am not sure if it is a good idea to sell into 0.8650 support. Unless 0.8650 is broken, Big Boss is still in uptrend.
There is still enough space on EUR/GBP to move my stop to breakeven and probably lock in some profits. The same goes for EUR/AUD. There is still a good 200-300 pips between market price and 1.7600.

I figure if its with the BOSS trend and there is room to go to breakeven, I will consider it for trading.
Bang.
  • #3,389
  • May 27, 2009 3:29am May 27, 2009 3:29am
Quoting pmn100
Just to add to this, I've got a downward trendline on the BOSS GBP/CHF, connecting highs at 28th Oct '08, 3rd Aug '08, 14th Sep '08, and price is touching it right now.

Attachment
Hi Pmn

I don't like the look of the gbpchf chart. This is only my opinion but I don't think we have seen the bottom. Have a look at some confirmed bottoms on some other chart (forex/shares) and you'll see it rare that most bottoms are put in without some sort of retracement into that first bottom. Often we see double bottoms or W formations. Now I could be wrong, but if you pan out it looks like a bear flag in a larger formation. We need to see the last MAJOR high (resistance) on the downtrend convincingly taken out and tested before I'd consider a long in this pair. For me this would be at around 1.900 where we have the 61% Fib confluence. A lot of deep retraces often come back to 61% then fall off again. we could see a 'test' arouind this area - wait for PA to lead the way.

At the moment it just seems too risky despite the rising triangle. Like Strat said the res' line is always a larger force to be reckoned with than the TL.

Happy waiting - (I used to say happy trading but I'm inclined to think of myself as more of an opportunistic investor these days, since switching to the daily TF!!)
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,390
  • May 27, 2009 7:45am May 27, 2009 7:45am
Quoting rgrace
It has pulled back to the 38.2 fib line and formed a hammer....
Yes, clue: our Ryan would see them!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,391
  • May 27, 2009 7:50am May 27, 2009 7:50am
Quoting Grimweasel
Hi Pmn

I don't like the look of the gbpchf chart. This is only my opinion but I don't think we have seen the bottom. Have a look at some confirmed bottoms on some other chart (forex/shares) and you'll see it rare that most bottoms are put in without some sort of retracement into that first bottom. Often we see double bottoms or W formations. Now I could be wrong, but if you pan out it looks like a bear flag in a larger formation. We need to see the last MAJOR high (resistance) on the downtrend convincingly taken out and tested before I'd consider...
After all the "What ifs," etc., the key point you made is:

"wait for PA to lead the way"

And furthermore, we will KEEP waiting UNTIL it DOES lead the way.

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,392
  • Edited 10:11am May 27, 2009 9:37am | Edited 10:11am
EUR:USD looks to be in a rising channel to me? It hadn't reached the top of the channel on the latest rise, but equally could drop a lot but maintain the uptrend.

Todays selling is close to taking out yesterdays low, which will negate the significance of the PA bounce (unsurprising considering the bounce was univeral based on overly optimistic US Consumers).

However until the day is done that is an assumption that is not tradeable.

How does that sound?
  • #3,393
  • May 27, 2009 10:27am May 27, 2009 10:27am
Quoting strat
Yes, clue: our Ryan would see them!
Elliott Wave?

Is it a 1, 2, 3, 4 type formation forming? Haven't had much experience of EWs so don't know the exact formations.
  • #3,394
  • May 27, 2009 10:33am May 27, 2009 10:33am
Here is a typical example of one of many scams taking advantage of people believing in the hype promoted in forex these days:

BB Matrix - Price is going up...


When we release the material for Bollinger band Matrix which
will be either tomorrow or Thursday, we will probably give you
through the week-end to get in at the $197 price tag. 500 copies max.

After that it goes to $997!

Dead serious. Its to good of a system to sell for less. We have come
to the conclusion that the Bollinger band system is first class and
the material alone is worth $997 not to mention the Option trading software
that is a free bonus.

The software is not only include it doesn't have a monthly fee, NO
MONTHLY FEE - that's unheard of for a tool that does what option maximizer is capable of.

So if you are one of the few still on the fence about BB Matrix you can
bite the bullet now at $197 or wait a few days and pay $997 either way,
it will go down in history as one of, if not THE BEST SYSTEM you ever traded.

In the material we cover not only the system, but how to let the
system do what it does best, MAKE MONEY and GROW YOUR ACCOUNT.

500 copies max., so good luck !

Sincerely,
****

PS - I'm going to do a webinar on the TICK Ambush system probably on
Friday for an hour or 2, I have several emails from people who are having
difficulty, and it's really so simple.

Some of you are making a killing and others are completely lost.

I think a webinar could make a huge difference for some of you.

Look for that email to register for the webinar.

I will send it out to paid members of the TICK Ambush.

DO NOT FALL FOR THIS OR OTHER SCAMS LIKE IT!

""When we release the material for Bollinger band Matrix which
 will be either tomorrow or Thursday, we will probably give you
 through the week-end to get in at the $197 price tag.
After that it goes to $997!""

This is the successful and proven "Must get now before anyone else" technique! This preys on your subconscious that here you have an opportunity to get something expensive at a discount price.

Ask yourself "If it is REALLY worth $997, why would he sell it for a fraction of that price?"

""not to mention the Option trading software
that is a free bonus.""

You are further enticed with the "FREE" something or other - we all like to get something for "free" - it's like beating the system!

""The software is not only include it doesn't have a monthly fee, NO
MONTHLY FEE - that's unheard of for a tool that does what option maximizer is capable of.""

Yet more enticement -something that doesn't COST you ANYTHING but WAIT, the sentence doesn't even make sense! Why would you buy something from a scammer that can't even put a sentence together correctly? Not only that, but the rest of the sales pitch is poor grammar.
""for Bollinger band Matrix"" - should be "Band".
""Its to good of a system"" - "to" is spelled "too" etc.
If this is an example of his work, then you know what his "first class" system will be like!

Now, if you haven't got your wallet out and bought this yet......................
""So if you are one of the few still on the fence about BB Matrix you can
bite the bullet now at $197 or wait a few days and pay $997 either way,
it will go down in history as one of, if not THE BEST SYSTEM you ever traded.""
More aggressive sales technique preying on your sub-conscious to get it while it is at a discount.

And, if you are still unsure..................................................................
In the material we cover not only the system, but how to let the
system do what it does best, MAKE MONEY and GROW YOUR ACCOUNT.
Preying on your visualisation and sub-conscious to make you think of being rich

And just in case you didn't get the message..........................................
500 copies max., so good luck !
Do it now before they are all gone - you will have something no-one else can get - it will become a collector's item!

And now for the final "squeeze", the "P.S.".............................................
PS - I'm going to do a webinar on the TICK Ambush system probably on
Friday for an hour or 2, I have several emails from people who are having
difficulty, and it's really so simple.
The "P.S." makes us think we are missing something and almost always makes us go back and read the whole thing again which then "loads" our sub-conscious even further to buy!

BUT, hang on, this guy has also got ANOTHER system - WOW, he must really be good, better get this one while I have the chance!

""I will send it out to paid members of the TICK Ambush"".
Oh my, he has an exclusive club where you can "pay" for his services - damn, I'd better get in on this!

THINK AGAIN - this guy sells several "systems" - IF just ONE was as good as his sales pitch, why would he need another? WHY?
WHY? - because he wants YOUR money!

THINK AGAIN - IF his system was half as good as his sales pitch, WHY would he sell it?WHY?
WHY? - because he makes MORE money selling systems than he does trading (if he even trades at all).

THINK AGAIN - He said he is only going to sell 500 copies max of this system and the price is $197 ($98,500 thank you!) BUT then he contradicts himself and tells us he is later going to sell more, but at $997!

Also, prices ending in "7" have proven to be the most effective in capturing sales as it doesn't look expensive! Again taking advantage of the latest marketing techniques.

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE SYSTEM?
""it will go down in history as one of, if not THE BEST SYSTEM you ever traded"".
This is JUST Bollinger Bands with the usual supporting indicator crap to confirm signals at the bands! John Bollinger, the developer of the bands has written countless number of reports on using it.

Does it work? Yes, but like most systems, it is NOT CONSISTENT. Many signals are false and many, many signals are missed BUT ""it will go down in history as one of, if not THE BEST SYSTEM you ever traded"".

This is all preying on your sub-conscious that THIS is the Holy Grail of trading.

DO NOT FALL FOR THIS OR OTHER SCAMS LIKE IT!


We know better - we KNOW what the Holy Grail is


AND


We know what the REAL best method/system is


AND


IT"S FREE! It just takes hours and hours of practicing on thousands and thousands of charts to learn it

You might be able to tell I don't like scammers especially those preying on unsuspecting, virgin ""wannabe traders"" who really think they are getting something to help them.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,395
  • May 27, 2009 10:39am May 27, 2009 10:39am
Quoting Stuart14
EUR:USD looks to be in a rising channel to me? It hadn't reached the top of the channel on the latest rise, but equally could drop a lot but maintain the uptrend.

Todays selling is close to taking out yesterdays low, which will negate the significance of the PA bounce (unsurprising considering the bounce was universal based on overly optimistic US Consumers).

However until the day is done that is an assumption that is not tradeable.

How does that sound?
Cannot argue with fact - the post below yours has what, to me, is more obvious.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,396
  • Edited 10:50am May 27, 2009 10:47am | Edited 10:50am
Quoting pmn100
Elliott Wave?

Is it a 1, 2, 3, 4 type formation forming? Haven't had much experience of EWs so don't know the exact formations.
For what it's worth, it is a classic complete EW meeting all the EW requirements. An A-B-C pattern USUALLY follows a completed EW.

If you look closely, you can even see the 5 wave pattern WITHIN wave 3!

Because it is so obvious, it may become self fulfilling much like TLs and fib retraces but only time will tell.

Whether it helps us or not, we ONLY trade PASR - end of story.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd complete ew.gif Size: 20 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,397
  • Edited 3:34pm May 27, 2009 1:01pm | Edited 3:34pm
One to watch

Strong downtrend across monthly, weekly and daily. If it can break through the first gray area and show a little PA, there's not much obvious resistance until the second gray area. Coupled with continuing Sterling strength against the Dollar and Yen, and a little weakness in the Euro, this one is on my watch list.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.jpg Size: 87 KB
  • #3,398
  • May 27, 2009 3:37pm May 27, 2009 3:37pm
Now, I know we have 2 days to go before the end of the month, but the FTSE 1000 Futures could provide some action.

I've been watching the ascending TL from the monthly (Big Boss) chart that has been broken. PA has retraced back into that TL and currently has a S/Star in place. This is combined with the 50% frib from the monthly swing low to high and a gap ( or window - and all windows have to close at some point)

The boss is looking weak with an attempt to push higher that was repelled last week.

Moving to the worker do we have a 'dark cloud cover' today on the SR zone at 4350. I'm watching for PA but if the minor suport and 50% fib go then short at 4245 may be in order. The Dow chart is showing similar action.

Defo' one to watch as the month draws to a close! The test is the 50% Fib and the action around the ascending TL.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ftse fut monthly.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ftse fut daily.gif Size: 28 KB
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #3,399
  • May 27, 2009 4:22pm May 27, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting AstonDan
One to watch

Strong downtrend across monthly, weekly and daily. If it can break through the first gray area and show a little PA, there's not much obvious resistance until the second gray area. Coupled with continuing Sterling strength against the Dollar and Yen, and a little weakness in the Euro, this one is on my watch list.

Attachment
A strong close below 0.8640 with preferably a re-test as resistance will do the job nicely.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #3,400
  • May 27, 2009 6:22pm May 27, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting AstonDan
One to watch

Strong downtrend across monthly, weekly and daily. If it can break through the first gray area and show a little PA, there's not much obvious resistance until the second gray area. Coupled with continuing Sterling strength against the Dollar and Yen, and a little weakness in the Euro, this one is on my watch list.

Attachment
Dan,

i see you have not mentioned a possible haulting point of .8500 which was support back in OCT of 1996. do you guys feel comfortable selling into that? or are you just putting more weight on the recent S/R and watching PA?
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