Trade what you see NOT what you expect

Bob must be in full effect......

HOLLA

i am in green but i am being very cautious and trying to stick to my plan
until now:

87% positive trades
i made 60% of my account in 2 months and i am missing many trades because i am on the road or in the office...
and max drawdown is good so hopefully in few months if its all good i will put more money in the account to play bigger lots

by the way, consecutive win trades (23 trades) +463 points lol
consecutive loss trades (2 trades) -55 points


average consecutive wins (9 trades)
average consecutive losses (2 trades)

Why do you think so?

cause i have a long lol

[quote=KENNETH lEE;2751381]I took that one too BUT !! I hit the sell button by mistake URGG.. But I was patient and got out with +2 pips.. But missed the 20 or more...[/quote


Does anyone see the problem with this quote and then the solution ?

Happy Weekend Everyone.. Ken

In my pass life,( before Trading) I had run numerous companies and departments of companies. In doing so they all required that they were run profitable. Whether you are a section of a manufacturing plant or a stand alone Distributor location. If you didn't make the owner or share holders money you probably weren't going to be there long.

In the course of my duties the main tools used to maintain that profitability was being meet or exceeded. Was the use of a P/L (profit and loss) statement. This was a document that was a snap shot of a more detailed one called your general ledger. The general ledger shows every cash out (expense) and cash in (sales.profits). It shows every purchase required to run your location or business down to the paper clips or staples you use. At a comparison glance of your P/L and the previous months cost or years you can tell if you need to dig deeper to find the item or items that have all of a sudden cost or made you money.

In running a business it is very easy to make a profit as it is all laid out in front of you like a book. Every cost and profit accounted for. If your labor is to high for your sales you cut hours. If a material is to expensive you find better prices. In other words you have vast control over what you can do to turn a loser into a winner.

We have to come up with a plan to do the same within our trading we can not just sit here day after day hoping and wishing it will turn around on it's own. One of the things I hated the most about being in charge was the annual Forecast. This where you come up with your estimates for the coming months or year. Based on it you would be reviewed by your superiors as to how you are running your affairs. You had to account for EVERYTHING office supplies , labor cost ,rent, utilities. EVERYTHING. It can really keep you on track to make the correct choices as you now have a plan and a goal that YOU have put forth to follow and with a glance at your P/L every once in a while you can gauge where you stand within that plan.

But it is a very proactive activity. Most of us whether we admit it or not are reactive not proactive. We respond to what has happened not what can happen. We need to act on the possibilities not on the things that have gone wrong.

This been said within this thread the mantra is TRADE WHAT YOU SEE. This is a proactive statement. We are taking trades based off what we and others have found to be profitable trades a high percentage of the time. We can call this our Research and development team. They have researched the charts and developed a plan to make us profitable. It is our job to execute these trades in a timely ( Hit the Button ) fashion then take the profits when available. The reason I call our trading pro active is because we are constantly taking trades where others wouldn't consider too. While they wait to react we have already acted and taken some profits or all that were available on small trades.

If we can develop a P/L as such to track every type trade we take then we should get a snap shot of the ones that we are losing more than making then maybe decide to forgo those trades for awhile to see if it changes our overall profitablity. A possible way of doing this is to label each type trade with a dedicated label 35/50 reversal could be 35/50 a 62 ema 1 hr, 62/1 . 5:00 oclock trades of the ema's could be 5/5.5/10,5/21 dependent on the ema taken. Hangman short H/S Hangmang long H/L. What ever works for you but we could build a ledger and within time we will start to see a pattern of the ones we are struggling with.

In your life and business the single and fastest way to turn a failing company around is to cut losses. We look at our P/L's we see we are pay twice as much for materials our rent is to high for the area. labor cost have dropped but we haven't adjusted ours. etc... It goes on and on.

I personally feel that in Trading this statement is of equal or even greater value. CUT LOSSES. I don't want to step on anyones toes here and I realize we have numerous levels of traders here, But I also see we have a great number of us that have been trading a while that aren't consistently making profits and some how or other we will have to turn that around. I am not accustomed to failure and I am finding my struggling to be very degrading. It must stop.

There are a group of us on this thread that migrated from other places as with any public forum. Until we can all achieve the level of the masters EO and INFINTY and The Likes. WE have to gain the confidence and structured mechanical skills to get there.

I am suggesting this as a option. Most of our entries are off some kinda of pin . This pin is a high or low of a swing. Swings can be on a 1 min chart to a monthly chart. So if you are taking a trade off a pin on a 15 min chart it is a swing on that time frame. In other words this is now your high or low. In previous trading strategies our stops were only 1 or 2 pips above these highs or lows. I know this sounds drastic and totally out of hand but if you look back almost all our really good trades take off and never look back. The group I am talking about use stops of 15 to 20 pips almost all the time. They include some of the highest pip takers here.

I just suggest this as we must cut our losses to hold on to our gains. We will regain our risk appetite as our account balance grows. That is a given. I have seen some of the most conservative traders once there accounts grow take some of the highest risk trades. But they normally workout as they have gained skill.

So take your profits and and don't lose more than you win.

He who loses the least wins.. Ken Lee

ps sorry this was soooo Long ...

With huge respect, Ken

[quote=KENNETH lEE;2751381]I took that one too BUT !! I hit the sell button by mistake URGG.. But I was patient and got out with +2 pips.. But missed the 20 or more...[/quote


Does anyone see the problem with this quote and then the solution ?

No Takers ??? HMM.. It should have read I pushed the sell button by mistake. It moved into profit and I reversed the trade and got a better entry.

Any time WE KNOW we got in wrong and it happens. We push the wrong button we see something that isn't there etc... We have two choices the best is probablly to just get out as quick as possible. Because it can squirl around on you going up and down giving you false HOPE ( by the way we don't trade on hope). That it might workout so you then hold it for a normal stop loss, BUT IT WASN'T A TRADE, It WAS A MISTAKE. SO CLOSE IT.

Once we are in a trade we aren't home free, we don't just sit there seeing what is happening. Our job is to still analysis the charts and act accordingly. I would bet and I know on my own trading that if I wasn't in a trade. I would more than likely enter one before I let my stop loss be hit.

Example: You see a hangman at the top. You take the short. but the darn thing moves up. you have your stop 20-35 pips above the pin. But the price moves up past a ma then comes back and retest it. This is saying we are going the other way... reverse or exit your trade why wait for the 35 loss. Just athought. I believe we give the market to much when we have signals telling us to get out.. Plus 2-4 pip spread is cheaper than a loss Get otu if it crosses your entry price get back in.

Just my two cents worth.. Ken Lee

gap up +6 hehehe

So strange mine opened 20 down... at 5:00 Eastern time

oh mine closed at 1.5906 and now it opened 1.5912
now expecting new high or 1.5955

well there you go mine closed at 159.30 opened at 159.10 up to 159.25 now though..

Morning all. How's everyone doing?

i've been adjusting targets all night long
now target is 1.5934... we still can see new high and 1.5955 but for now i close in 1.5934 when we reach it

I just took a long position at 5880....she is moving slow but perhaps there is enough interest to keep her in a nice range today

20 pip stop cause if she does not do what i want her to...quickly....i want out.

I may be delusional but i keep thinking i am good enough to get a great entry where she hardley goes against me any. If not......i will try again later.

Good Morning EO, Infinity, Ken & all Friends

UK & USA bank holiday = EO Thread Holiday

Keep on the way with this excellent Friendly Money House

scooted stop up to 70