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  • #99,921
  • May 24, 2009 4:29pm May 24, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting Chicky
Thre will be no war, if everyone goes into hidings.
You mean to say everyone's not hiding right now ? You're not hiding ?

People, did I miss anything ?

What did Maggie Thatcher have to say about the Falklands ?

Everythings cool now, right ?

I've aleady missed the Duran Duran concert. I don't wanna miss everything else too.
  • #99,922
  • May 24, 2009 4:32pm May 24, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting notch
Hooray!!! I wish I had the balls to increase my shorts but the current pain is quite sufficient.
This should be kind of safe, since most brokers are not open yet, and if they open @ 3 PM PST with a gap up, that gap should be filled and we'll go back down to 1.40
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #99,923
  • May 24, 2009 4:33pm May 24, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting SunTrader
Who?? Nobody I know believes that.
Sh@t! If it gets to $80 I'd have go back to work. Promised my wife
  • #99,924
  • May 24, 2009 4:37pm May 24, 2009 4:37pm
For what it is worth, Friday's top @ Oanda was 1.4049, Today top so far is 1.4048. So there is hope.
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  • #99,925
  • May 24, 2009 4:37pm May 24, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting KillerWhale
This should be kind of safe, since most brokers are not open yet, and if they open @ 3 PM PST with a gap up, that gap should be filled and we'll go back down to 1.40
I have never traded gaps. Simply never understood them, I've seen them on charts and seen them get filled but could never get my head around why it occurred. Please enlighten me.
  • #99,926
  • May 24, 2009 4:39pm May 24, 2009 4:39pm
Quoting toshi
You mean to say everyone's not hiding right now ? You're not hiding ?

People, did I miss anything ?

What did Maggie Thatcher have to say about the Falklands ?

Everythings cool now, right ?

I've aleady missed the Duran Duran concert. I don't wanna miss everything else too.
No. I am not hiding, I am riding my shorts.

There are at least two parties in a game. In this case, one is USD but I also have to consider interest of Euro in this tug-of -war. They too have to protect their economy. Waiting for a pull from their side. With my limited brain, I am only able to understand to this simple level. They may not be able to touch the mark from where it started, but they do have some muscles.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,927
  • May 24, 2009 4:43pm May 24, 2009 4:43pm
EUR-USD prices can move up swiftly. US Govt is looking for another stimilus package of several billion. If 2nd stimilus goes through we could see a dramatic fall in USD.

Thanks for the fundamental report.

Quoting SeerEye
For those of you who do not have FXSOL and do not receive their weekly "Market directions" e-mail, here it is. ...Joseph Trevisani who is FXSOL's chief market analyst is spot on in regards to the US dollar ... Attachment
  • #99,928
  • May 24, 2009 4:44pm May 24, 2009 4:44pm
Shorted the market.
Looking for minimum 50 pip range from 12.00 pm
  • #99,929
  • May 24, 2009 4:48pm May 24, 2009 4:48pm
i see everybody has their short positions ready, as for me, i'll stay sideways for at least the first couple of hours
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #99,930
  • May 24, 2009 5:03pm May 24, 2009 5:03pm
I'm looking for a retracement to 1.3934, or thereabouts. I'm not convinced that the climb up is over yet, so if my retracement is good, I'll have to think again
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #99,931
  • May 24, 2009 5:08pm May 24, 2009 5:08pm
Quoting notch
I have never traded gaps. Simply never understood them, I've seen them on charts and seen them get filled but could never get my head around why it occurred. Please enlighten me.
Actually there is no GAP. At Oanda, where trading starts @Noon PST, I've never had a gap.
Then the price starts moving and the difference between Noon PST and 3 PM PST when most brokers open, you can call that a gap.
The fact that the gap always closes I cannot explain, it is just a fact that it happens 95% or so of the time.
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  • #99,932
  • May 24, 2009 5:10pm May 24, 2009 5:10pm
Taking another look at this..


I'm spying the PA from Wednesday. It looks like an awful lot of big money got off the train at 138.

The Elliot folks say this last couple 100 pts to tag the 140 handle is a 5th wave.
Some of us call that a "retail wave". I could agree with that too.

The case for longs is slowly erroding. If you caught the last 500 points up, holiday or no holiday,
I'd take atleast some of that money off the table and move stops up so as not to hand over all those gains.

The case for shorts is a bit more tricky, as I see it.

I personally think there's about 200 pips of downside potential at any moment now.
Once again, US holiday or not, the market does what SHE want's to do.

Some are watching the hourly 100 SMA (currently at 13760) and or the Weekly NY floor pivot (13824) as markers.

If I had buy this behemoth, i'd wait until atleast one or both of those levels are touched.
Even then, I'm not terrible excited about the prospect of being long this market.

As another poster (chicky) mentioned, The ECB has yet to return fire in this latest battle
and the last 600 pip salvo up could get a 300 or 400 point response down within a few actively traded bars.

Don't think the Buba (bundesbank) and the Euromafia will just stand by idle while the US Fed destroys their economy.


just my 2 cents.
  • #99,933
  • May 24, 2009 5:10pm May 24, 2009 5:10pm
Quoting KillerWhale
it is just a fact that it happens 95% or so of the time.
Is it really? Have you made a statistical study of it? (I have)

Or maybe the question is, when is the price touching the "gap" opening price considered closing a gap? During the week, same day, how many pips it can go to other direction etc?
  • #99,934
  • May 24, 2009 5:16pm May 24, 2009 5:16pm
Euro-exuberance.

Recession over or not... this dog headed south soon.

m
  • #99,935
  • May 24, 2009 5:16pm May 24, 2009 5:16pm
Here is the GAP on the 5 min chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 05-24 5min.gif Size: 20 KB
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  • #99,936
  • May 24, 2009 5:17pm May 24, 2009 5:17pm
Geezzz, I may have to get outta here for a while.

Hanging around here I'm starting to get kinda bearish on this Euro.

I didn't care one way or the other a few hours ago.

But, this is how it always starts.

I may have to go before I start selling something I didn't plan to.

The urge is growing. I'm getting the itch to short.

SOMEBODY STOP ME.
Attached Image
  • #99,937
  • May 24, 2009 5:23pm May 24, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting mikkom
Is it really? Have you made a statistical study of it? (I have)

Or maybe the question is, when is the price touching the "gap" opening price considered closing a gap? During the week, same day, how many pips it can go to other direction etc?
No, I didn't make a study of it, but in GJ I've seen that it took almost a week before it filled up. I don't know if that also happened with EU.
If you studied this, I would appreciate it greatly if you would post your findings.
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  • #99,938
  • May 24, 2009 5:26pm May 24, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting toshi
Some are watching the hourly 100 SMA (currently at 13760) and or the Weekly NY floor pivot (13824) as markers.
I'd also add the 38% ret. of last week's straight up move ((13423 to 14050)) at 1.3810/12.

The 38 at the 138, Kinda cute isn't it ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_382.PNG Size: 33 KB
  • #99,939
  • May 24, 2009 5:43pm May 24, 2009 5:43pm
For those of you who dig harmonic numbers, here's another one:

December 18th high (14719/38) to March 4th low (12456) @ the .707
.707 is the square of 50% retracement level.

Neither are Fibonacci numbers, but the 50% is accepted as an important pullback/retracement level
and the .707 is often accepted as an harmonic numerical target when .618 is overshot and the .786 is out of reach.

btw: .764 is more akin to the Pound and sometimes the Swissy, but not so much with Euro.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_707.PNG Size: 43 KB
  • #99,940
  • May 24, 2009 5:45pm May 24, 2009 5:45pm
You know what ?

That looks so good I want to show it again.

Here:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro_707.PNG Size: 43 KB
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