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  • #99,861
  • May 24, 2009 9:38am May 24, 2009 9:38am
I get the the feeling we are looking at 1.38 - 1.44 range. I have an order to short at 1.4039 at open, might look for a 100 pip dip then back off and wait for long entry.

If order doesn't get filled on GAP on open ( I SAID GAP), I will yank it a wait.
  • #99,862
  • May 24, 2009 9:51am May 24, 2009 9:51am
Quoting tickershuffl
i get the the feeling we are looking at 1.38 - 1.44 range. I have an order to short at 1.4039 at open, might look for a 100 pip dip then back off and wait for long entry.

If order doesn't get filled on gap on open ( i said gap), i will yank it a wait.
gap down more likely.
  • #99,863
  • May 24, 2009 10:43am May 24, 2009 10:43am
the past week is a lovely lesson for all of those who try to pick up top or bottom in a strong trend. The result is obviously disgusting.

Follow the trend, follow the trend..... After the price past 1.3725, its obvious a strong up trend(middle in up channel, up wave 5). If you did so, you have only one opportunity to be proven wrong, thats at the top of the trend. But if you did the oppose, you have only one opportunity to be right. And before that point, you have lost everything.

We all talk about high possibility trade from time to time, but what we actually do is what making us different.
  • #99,864
  • May 24, 2009 10:48am May 24, 2009 10:48am
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
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  • #99,865
  • May 24, 2009 10:58am May 24, 2009 10:58am
Also I got a few skepticism here. If you look up recent three EU up major trend, its all caused by Fed. Dec: zero-interest, March: Purchase debt, this month: Purchase more? So Fed is everything in forex market. But before Fed announced its news, market has already shown its trend (or technical adjustment) toward the following announcement. So are the big players in the market know some inside news?
  • #99,866
  • May 24, 2009 11:20am May 24, 2009 11:20am
I fully expect this to come back to 1.3900 at the least. But I would love to see it come back to 1.3700 because I will be buying at all these Fib levels.

MK
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  • #99,867
  • May 24, 2009 11:23am May 24, 2009 11:23am
Quoting xiaofeng0717
Also I got a few skepticism here. If you look up recent three EU up major trend, its all caused by Fed. Dec: zero-interest, March: Purchase debt, this month: Purchase more? So Fed is everything in forex market. But before Fed announced its news, market has already shown its trend (or technical adjustment) toward the following announcement. So are the big players in the market know some inside news?

Well I'm on the same side of the market as the commericials so I feel a lot more secure.
  • #99,868
  • May 24, 2009 11:41am May 24, 2009 11:41am
Quoting notch
Well I'm on the same side of the market as the commericials so I feel a lot more secure.
You shouldn't. Commercials are hedging and don't care about the direction.
  • #99,869
  • May 24, 2009 11:41am May 24, 2009 11:41am
Quoting fammira
..........
The main reason why I think is going up more before falling back, is that in the last week equities have paused and Euro gained even more strenght.
Only thing that could stop it is a strong reverse in equities, which indeed will go up more, and more aggresively in the two coming weeks I think.
And what about what they say about equities, "sell in May and go away"????
  • #99,870
  • May 24, 2009 11:45am May 24, 2009 11:45am
Quoting tamster
EXTRACT ...a tremendous paradigm shift is underway, with early steps and major moves by global players in clear view .....
Yet another gold bugger upset that the price is not $10000/oz.
  • #99,871
  • Edited 12:12pm May 24, 2009 11:49am | Edited 12:12pm
Quoting mikkom
You shouldn't. Commercials are hedging and don't care about the direction.

You're right Mikko...I'm a complete dick! (in this context) But I still feel secure that I'm on the same side of the market as the commercials...

Under the CBOT Liquidity Data Bank there are four participants:

CTI-1 - Local/Specialists - (attempts to be involved at every price)
CTI-2 - Commercial - (tend to trade when they perceive price away from value)
CTI-3 - Member trading off floor - - (attempts to be involved at every price)
CTI-4 - General Public - (mugs)

When CTI-2 participation is significantly higher than the norm, this involvement should be flagged and incorporated into one's thought processes. They trade when the price is above value.

CTI-4 participate at the extremes in just the opposite. CTI4 play 'go with' when price are higher they think they are going higher.

So when a large difference occurs between the commerical and the others a change of direction usually take place.

Looking at the link that the Austrian posted it seems to me that the catergories that Globex use are very similar to those used by CBOT in the liquidity Data Bank.

I had to refer to to 'Steidlmayer on Markets: Trading with market profile' by Peter Steidlmayer and Steve Hawkins so that I didn't screw up the interpretation. It's been quite a few years since I assimilated that information. But thank God I don't just pull this stuff out of thin air because you guys would be all over me in a flash.
  • #99,872
  • May 24, 2009 12:31pm May 24, 2009 12:31pm
Quoting notch
When CTI-2 participation is significantly higher than the norm, this involvement should be flagged and incorporated into one's thought processes. They trade when the price is above value.
It's really quite easy to understand. Other than commercials in COT are speculators (they make their money by betting for the movement of markets), commercials are companies that are trying to minimize their exposure to the currency fluctuations so they hedge their risks.

Just an example: If a large company makes a deal for a product (a big one, let's say paper mill) that is paid in other currency (let's say argentinian peso) and the full payment is made only after the product is shipped, they have to make sure the value of currency doesn't deprecate during the time they buy the materials and pay the wages. So they take opposite position ("hedge") in futures to minimize the risk.
  • #99,873
  • May 24, 2009 12:34pm May 24, 2009 12:34pm
perhaps it will weigh on Euro, on the other hand, maybe not.

I am going to pull the sell order at 1.4039 and wait to see if I can short higher. Looking at dollar index, it looks like the weakness could easily continue to 78 and that might be the spike to short euro on.

I can wait...I hope. hehe
  • #99,874
  • May 24, 2009 12:36pm May 24, 2009 12:36pm
Before this gets to par with GAP discussions...

http://www.learningmarkets.com/index...-part-one.html
Traders are smartasses
  • #99,875
  • Edited 12:41pm May 24, 2009 12:39pm | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting mikkom
It's really quite easy to understand. Other than commercials in COT are speculators (they make their money by betting for the movement of markets), commercials are companies that are trying to the risk.

Well I'm wrong but this is no biggie because I often am. Thanks for the lesson.

But I'm still happy I'm on the same side of the market as the commercials!
  • #99,876
  • May 24, 2009 12:58pm May 24, 2009 12:58pm
Only 108 more posts till 100,000 for the topic.

Weekend talking about fictious gaps should get us there in no time.

  • #99,877
  • May 24, 2009 1:03pm May 24, 2009 1:03pm
Stupid question coming...what time does trading begin? 5 US eastern time right?
  • #99,878
  • May 24, 2009 1:11pm May 24, 2009 1:11pm
Quoting SunTrader
Only 108 more posts till 100,000 for the topic.

Weekend talking about fictious gaps should get us there in no time.

GAP? What GAP? Where's the GAP?

GAP down please!
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #99,879
  • May 24, 2009 1:12pm May 24, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting KillerWhale
GAP? What GAP? Where's the GAP?

GAP down please!

PLEASE!!!!
  • #99,880
  • May 24, 2009 1:15pm May 24, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting SunTrader
Only 108 more posts till 100,000 for the topic.

Weekend talking about fictious gaps should get us there in no time.

And also:
3 days from now this thread has it's 5th anniversary
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
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