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  • #99,841
  • May 24, 2009 6:41am May 24, 2009 6:41am
Quoting KillerWhale
That's because your name is patience.
Well patience is a virtue and all good things come to those who wait.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #99,842
  • Edited 6:46am May 24, 2009 6:46am | Edited 6:46am
Quoting gatorinla
retrace picking can be a hard thing to do.. at 4105 i get a anti semi.. ice water semi..
Me too is afraid now. USA is closed. Anything can happen. No reliable resistance in sight. Plus those paradigm type articles in this low activity sessions may cost few additional pips. It is now becoming a gamble. No use of watching PA, it maybe very abrupt. I will try to scalp a little in both directions, helping in sl eating.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,843
  • May 24, 2009 6:48am May 24, 2009 6:48am
This is from Bloomberg.com
The dollar may rebound after the currency’s 3.7 percent plunge this week against the euro created a “lose-lose situation” for the U.S., Europe and other countries, according to Barclays Capital Inc.

The greenback tumbled this week against all of the 16 most actively traded currencies on concern U.S. creditworthiness deteriorated and near-zero borrowing costs made the nation’s assets less attractive to investors.

“While sentiment has become very negative toward U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar, this sell-off does not seem to have benefited anyone,” wrote Steven Englander, chief U.S. currency strategist at Barclays, and Aroop Chatterjee, a colleague, in a research note today. “Appreciating regions such as the commodity currencies and euro zone have experienced a backup in bond yields in conjunction with effective monetary policy tightening. This is a lose-lose situation.”

The dollar slid today beyond $1.40 per euro for the first time since January, and its weekly drop was the biggest since the five days ended March 20, the week the Federal Reserve announced its plan to buy up to $300 billion in Treasuries to keep borrowing costs low.

Investors should buy one-week call options on the dollar versus the Swiss franc, which is “vulnerable on any pullback in global fiscal concern,” the New York-based analysts wrote. A call option gives investors the right to buy a currency at an agreed-upon price. The dollar dropped 3.3 percent to 1.0840 francs this week.
  • #99,844
  • May 24, 2009 6:49am May 24, 2009 6:49am
Quoting KillerWhale
Good night all, I'm really of to sleep now.

Sleep well. Don't trade while asleep.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,845
  • May 24, 2009 6:51am May 24, 2009 6:51am
All I know is that next week I'm going to make a shedful of pips regardless. My short may not pay off but just about everything else will!!!! EURUSD bbbabbbbyyyy!!!! See y'all
  • #99,846
  • May 24, 2009 6:54am May 24, 2009 6:54am
Quoting KillerWhale
Lol, I don't agree with you here Chicky.
Uploading a chart is a matter of seconds, uploading trade skills is a matter of years. If you first learn to trade, we might never see a chart.
Sir,

I will change my priorities and learn.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,847
  • Edited 6:57am May 24, 2009 6:55am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting Chicky


My IH trend line is very much intact, sttill far far below 1.4000, event below 1.3840. However 15M line is clearly broken.

I'm sure you know what I meant and if you didn't that's worrying. Everyone knows that one can draw several TLs for the same TF.

Well maybe not everyone but...
  • #99,848
  • May 24, 2009 6:56am May 24, 2009 6:56am
hi is there any onecan tell me where it can go eurusd maximum or thechannel up trned is broken coz thathat i see me too channel up trend is broken ? so any sugestion
  • #99,849
  • May 24, 2009 7:14am May 24, 2009 7:14am
Quoting Elghoz
hi is there any onecan tell me where it can go eurusd maximum or thechannel up trned is broken coz thathat i see me too channel up trend is broken ? so any sugestion
Why do you refuse to do anything for yourself?
Your question about the maximum can't be answered, but possible tops can be projected
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  • #99,850
  • May 24, 2009 7:18am May 24, 2009 7:18am
This is my first real posting as a newbie, but gives an indication on how i derive the trend and where the next potential turning points are. i then use RSI and other indicators to refine the entry on the day.

You can see that the low this monday was a matrix point low and we are going up to the next matrix high point. The points can be plus or minus 2 days, so i then look at potential fib hits in time to give a higher probability that we see a CIT.

As you an see from the chart, the low last monday was 5 calender days down, then we rallied. We get loads of fib hits on Tuesday 26th to give the high possibility that we turn on that day. I will look to see if we are higher into Tuesday then get ready to pull the short triggers.

The next low is due around Monday 1st june, but then the big intersting thing is that the huge amounts of fib hits on the 16th June, which could be a final high before a real healthy drop.

Will see what the next day or two brings.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #99,851
  • May 24, 2009 7:21am May 24, 2009 7:21am
Quoting notch
I'm sure you know what I meant and if you didn't that's worrying. Everyone knows that one can draw several TLs for the same TF.

Well maybe not everyone but...
Your rightly worrying. I never thought of that. I am getting old.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,852
  • May 24, 2009 7:31am May 24, 2009 7:31am
Quoting stallionez
This is my first real posting as a newbie, but gives an indication on how i derive the trend and where the next potential turning points are. i then use RSI and other indicators to refine the entry on the day.

Will see what the next day or two brings.

I like your style.
  • #99,853
  • Edited 7:40am May 24, 2009 7:40am | Edited 7:40am
Peeps,
The volume of my posts tells me that it is time to start a new thread to offload some of my ideas etc.

Further, the sheer number of traders that want to be on the distribution list is simply overwhelming (I am glad that you have noticed the power of the Notch Cycle) and I think that it would take quite a while to send posts to all interested parties in batches of 5 (the maximum no of people that posts can be sent to at the same time).

I will also post my predicted high & low info' here for 5 time frames. I will include signals from the Notch Cycle but will not be explaining the mechanics behind it.
Notch
  • #99,854
  • May 24, 2009 7:45am May 24, 2009 7:45am
Quoting Elghoz
hi is there any onecan tell me where it can go eurusd maximum or thechannel up trned is broken coz thathat i see me too channel up trend is broken ? so any sugestion

Bullish sentiment last week is because of Russia Dumps the U.S. Dollar for Euro as Reserve Currency. A consequence of this dumps of US dollar, effecting EU, GU and all USD pair. We can see EU and GU totally overbought at daily and weekly time frame. Movement of EU and GU not reflecting real situation of European and UK economy. Don't get trap with Bullish sentiment.



  • #99,855
  • May 24, 2009 7:48am May 24, 2009 7:48am
Here's my attempt at a chart. Not the EUR but still relevant and I know this thread likes gaps so while I was squizzing at this chart, I noticed a few and I thought I would post it. All comments welcome although I really must take my daughter to feed the ducks as it is a stunning day in London so I won't be around to be shot down

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #99,856
  • May 24, 2009 8:14am May 24, 2009 8:14am
Quoting PandoraBox
Bullish sentiment last week is because of Russia Dumps the U.S. Dollar for Euro as Reserve Currency. A consequence of this dumps of US dollar, effecting EU, GU and all USD pair. We can see EU and GU totally overbought at daily and weekly time frame. Movement of EU and GU not reflecting real situation of European and UK economy. Don't get trap with Bullish sentiment.


Don't worry about Elghoz being trapped in any sentiment. If I have this figured right, he'll do what he always does. The first big spike down and he'll sell. Then he'll get out at a loss when it comes back up. He'll then get in long near the top only to once again get out at a loss on the next trip down. It's sad but he refuses to plan anything. So on goes the Elghoz saga
  • #99,857
  • May 24, 2009 8:29am May 24, 2009 8:29am
Quoting stallionez
This is my first real posting as a newbie, but gives an indication on how i derive the trend and where the next potential turning points are. i then use RSI and other indicators to refine the entry on the day.

You can see that the low this monday was a matrix point low and we are going up to the next matrix high point. The points can be plus or minus 2 days, so i then look at potential fib hits in time to give a higher probability that we see a CIT.

As you an see from the chart, the low last monday was 5 calender days down, then we rallied....

An additional point, is that i knew we were going higher once the blue point 8 was taken out. The higher timeframe shows the red point 3 high being broken too so we should keep going up into June when the even bigger cycle is due. So the plan of selling from tuesday will only be a retracement, but we need to see price action around the 1st June to establish if we go higher than where we are now. As long as we are not lower than the low in May (red point 4) then we will go higher and the multi link on the 16th June is my favorite route for the moment as a major high point.

What it will do is give us a good idea on the trend and offer us good low risk entries on the pullbacks.
  • #99,858
  • May 24, 2009 8:35am May 24, 2009 8:35am
I tell ya, last week while trying to get fancy and time the market, it proved to be a waste. over 600 pips in euro from low to high and I walked away with a pittance.

My questions are, will the dollar weakness ever end? If so, why?
  • #99,859
  • May 24, 2009 9:14am May 24, 2009 9:14am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I tell ya, last week while trying to get fancy and time the market, it proved to be a waste. over 600 pips in euro from low to high and I walked away with a pittance.

My questions are, will the dollar weakness ever end? If so, why?
Doesn't look like it. But this is my opinion of the market. Volume has been up since the beginning of the month of May with little signs of a slow down. A retracement is due ... I would expect that any day/week/month now, but an upwards channel/trend line (daily chart) is developing.

If anything, I would expect a retracement and a continuation of the upwards trend (daily chart)
  • #99,860
  • May 24, 2009 9:24am May 24, 2009 9:24am
if only the upcoming week will be as trending as the week we had ..

woah !
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