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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #30,761
  • May 21, 2009 8:46pm May 21, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting james16
chart
Very nice there big guy.

I liked the BUOB at a swing Low, retrace and I'm sure there are some Fibs that line up with 8200 as well.

Catching that PA coming and going.

I wonder how hard it broke. lol.

http://i44.tinypic.com/xqhrad.jpg
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #30,762
  • May 21, 2009 8:58pm May 21, 2009 8:58pm
At first I thought the pin bar was good because it respected the H4 pivot and closed above SMA 50. Now I know that I need some space for the pin bar to act. Thanks for all the responses.
  • #30,763
  • May 21, 2009 9:08pm May 21, 2009 9:08pm
Here is a post from Josh a while back that gives you a great overview of the type of trading that is done here. Take some time and go over it-



http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250
  • #30,764
  • May 21, 2009 9:40pm May 21, 2009 9:40pm
I went through the summaries by Josh, SeekingLight and Mike also. Still need some time to look at the charts and digest this material. I find out that this method is suitable for me cos I cannot react fast to price change. Hopefully will get better with it over time
  • #30,765
  • May 21, 2009 9:59pm May 21, 2009 9:59pm
Quoting Rosco_P
Here is a post from Josh a while back that gives you a great overview of the type of trading that is done here. Take some time and go over it-



http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23250

Im a newbie here and so far i have blown up 4 demo accounts, of course each time i blow a account i learn something from it. but when i started reading FF forums and threads the whole horizon of trading upon to me. I would thank to all the members who are contributing to this thread. The compilation done for the benefit of the newbies, just shows how much your guys care about us the newbies.

Thanks allot guys. Cheers and happy pipping.

Regards
Yk
" A master in the making"
  • #30,766
  • May 21, 2009 10:11pm May 21, 2009 10:11pm
Quoting ykramesh
Im a newbie here and so far i have blown up 4 demo accounts, of course each time i blow a account i learn something from it. but when i started reading FF forums and threads the whole horizon of trading upon to me. I would thank to all the members who are contributing to this thread. The compilation done for the benefit of the newbies, just shows how much your guys care about us the newbies.

Thanks allot guys. Cheers and happy pipping.

Regards
Yk
" A master in the making"
Hey Yk

Welcome. Glad to see you using the powers of a demo account and blowing up there. Many have not been so smart in the beginning(for better or worse). Keep practicing and taking things slow.

Mike
  • #30,767
  • May 21, 2009 11:04pm May 21, 2009 11:04pm
My first post, so warm greetings to all.

The James16 thread is a wonderful resource indeed.

I think there is a pretty picture forming on the usd.jpy weekly.

JR
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Be happy, be humble.
  • #30,768
  • Edited May 22, 2009 1:04am May 21, 2009 11:16pm | Edited May 22, 2009 1:04am
I am with you on a fundamental basis as well...waiting for the PA to declare that the appropriate strategy. It's a dicey series of charts. One has to view the daily H/S as a consolidation rather than a reversal, depsite the re-test of the neckline. The aggressive trader can make a case for entering long right now against the retest. There will be plenty of time, however. EUR/JPY can be viewed similarly.

I also find it interesting how little EUR/USD has given back in the Asian session...one would think 1.38 would be a reasonable place to take a look to add, if supported by appropriate PA. AUD/USD has retraced a bit more technically...perhaps a change in leadership
  • #30,769
  • May 22, 2009 2:23am May 22, 2009 2:23am
Quoting TotalNewbie
I think I might just have had my first aha moment so I thought I'd share it on here in case it helps other rookies like myself....
I have been thinking about this post, and I am going to change my method to doing that, its a minor thing to change for me. Be aware of areas of s/r (weekly Horiz S/R or PPZ, 50,61,76 fib, 365,150,60 ema), then as price approches these areas look for good PA. Before I was looking for PA then looking for S/R to support but I can see now it can lead to imagining S/R thats no there. Thanks TotalNewbie, you should change you name now I think.!

Regards

Mark
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,770
  • Edited 4:03am May 22, 2009 4:02am | Edited 4:03am
hi yawl, iv just been checking over my au/cad chart and it could be forming a weekly pin. v. nice location at a long term PPZ and the 365 + 200 EMAs with fib con from the last big swing down. daily chart has strong divergence on both rsi and macd with a possible double top formation?? targets seem to speak for themselves.
it was interesting to hear you experienced guys are having similar problems to me.its good to know its not just my inexperience.tough markets these days. wish i was around for the eu/us bull trend,it must have been a bit easier then!!no ..??
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PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #30,771
  • May 22, 2009 4:08am May 22, 2009 4:08am
Quoting markmm
I have been thinking about this post, and I am going to change my method to doing that, its a minor thing to change for me. Be aware of areas of s/r (weekly Horiz S/R or PPZ, 50,61,76 fib, 365,150,60 ema), then as price approches these areas look for good PA. Before I was looking for PA then looking for S/R to support but I can see now it can lead to imagining S/R thats no there. Thanks TotalNewbie, you should change you name now I think.!

Regards

Mark
I think it is better way then one you mentioned before. If I look for PA first I tend to create artificial PPZ just to take beautiful PA setup. I backtested 5 years back on 14 pairs but only conclusion I found so far is that I need to take PA setups with the trend. If I take CT trades I'm doomed to wipe out my account.
  • #30,772
  • May 22, 2009 4:08am May 22, 2009 4:08am
Quoting pdean123
Saw your comment and the chart you were referencing. As long as RSI remains in the downward channel price will continue down. The bold red lines are Negative Reversals driving price down. The yellow dashed line is a positive divergence. Positive divergences normally push price back up into Negative Reversals especially at low RSI levels as seen here. Watch for a change in the RSI channel in particular a break of the upper line and a following Positive Reversal, then look for a price action bar(s) to confirm. In most cases it will be a DBLHC.
As you might have seen, the RSI has moved through the positive divergence.
  • #30,773
  • May 22, 2009 4:12am May 22, 2009 4:12am
Quoting pdean123
DBHLC with Negative RSI reversal to confirm. Target 93.70 - 93.54.
Still showing weakness. Reached within 13 pips of target high end. May take out target today as a Negative Reversal is forming on the underside of the divergence. Price is still playing off a DBHLC from hours earlier.
  • #30,774
  • Edited 4:38am May 22, 2009 4:13am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting markmm
I have been thinking about this post, and I am going to change my method to doing that, its a minor thing to change for me. Be aware of areas of s/r (weekly Horiz S/R or PPZ, 50,61,76 fib, 365,150,60 ema), then as price approches these areas look for good PA. Before I was looking for PA then looking for S/R to support but I can see now it can lead to imagining S/R thats no there. Thanks TotalNewbie, you should change you name now I think.!

Regards

Mark
Yes Yes! On ya!

It also means you can set alerts and not watch the screen as much while out of trades.

Plan the areas and wait. Also try and see past the immediate PPZs and look for the one that'll give you the highest chance of success that's often not much further away.

Example:

"If I don't take this bearish pin of this ppz and then wait for the PPZ just above that's in confluence with a consolidation bottom from earlier in the week ,AND a deep fib retrace too, I'll have a pretty good chance of going immediately into profit."

You should see how many cool looking pins (etc) I let go by and see fail ( as I suspect they will too), all because we aren't at the final destination yet. I mean ignoring REALLY good PA bars. No kidding.

It'd be good if I had an example of my staged planning on the charts, but I haven't seen anything special, unfortunately. Maybe next week.

We say it again and again and again..... LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION!!!! ...and you'r getting it.

EDIT: OK , found an example , I'll post it the next 10 min or so (bet it takes longer. )
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #30,775
  • May 22, 2009 4:28am May 22, 2009 4:28am
Quoting bundyraider
Yes Yes!...
Quote
You should see how many cool looking pins (etc) I let go by and see fail ( as I suspect they will too), all because we aren't at the final destination yet. I mean ignoring REALLY good PA bars. No kidding.



great post bundy, it highlights some very difficult aspects of trading not often recognised. and i for one find it difficult to impliment in real time.
i particularly like the bit i highlighted in red.EDIT...or tried to!! lol
cheers
jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #30,776
  • May 22, 2009 4:39am May 22, 2009 4:39am
Quoting bundyraider
Yes Yes!...
Yeah Bunny I am seeing it clearly now, PA is nothing without location. I see major locations as the following-

Weekly horizontal S/R (PPZ or highs/lows).
Big round number 1.5000, 1.6000, 100.00 , 120.00
50,61.8,76.4 Fib line from a large move on same TF as I am trading.
365/150 EMA.

If there are more than one at the same location the probability goes up.

As you say the beauty is I look for PA at these strong points (not just PB but all the PA bars) and I can set alerts. I also think it will be easier to move down a TF (4HR) using this method as the locations will hold even more influence.

With trend or counter trend determines exit strategy.


Thanks

Mark
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,777
  • Edited 6:24am May 22, 2009 4:50am | Edited 6:24am
Ok. Seriously I had all these lines on the chart before they were reacted too. Most derived from a close price "low or high" somewhere.

For clarity of explanation I've removed some EMAs, a pivot indicator and fib studies.

Top light blue line bar high trend line from 1 hour. (not respected very well 3 hours ago. ...Yes this is a <GASP> ...five minute chart!!! )

Top dotted yellow horizontal line is minor PPZ that's closest to lining up with those yellow trend lines of a) close price 1 hr trend line. b) Bar lows trend line (bottom one).

Solid yellow horizontal is the one I wish everything else lined up with. (...DAMMIT!!) If the trend lines were hit around the white arrow, a fib lined up, a daily pivot line lined up and so on I'd sell a small amount right on the that line without PA confirmation. This would be starting the positions in a longer term trade.
BUT they don't line up. ANYWAY>>>>

From swing low.....

Hits pink line..... Too shallow a retracement. This is a trend reversal trade I would be looking for here (in the bigger picture) so I don't want my stop THAT far away from the top of price chart (mainly that light blue disrespected line).
If it were a with-the-trend continuation move it'd be more likely a candidate.

Darker purple horizontal.... First real candidate. IF it lined up with trend lines or something. It doesn't . So it was just expected to be a road block.

On a higher time frame I'd consider going counter - to my trade idea and put a buy limit at the pink line below again. It it were cleaner though. I'd do this because the price I'm looking to go short at is a magnet. To me, because we are reversing, a long is still a pretty high probability trade. ...I'm getting side tracked. Anyway MANY traders SOOOO want to hit those trend lines up above ....And EXPECT IT. We aren't happy until it does.

Yellow solid horizontal.... Once again... "DAMMIT!" ...Why don't it line up with all the others!!?!! ...haha... This is the good level to go short. But we're still not satisfying a whole group of people who won't do anything until they see it hit the trend lines. Soooo..... not a bundy trade today.
NOW sometimes I do enter.... but shouldn't . ...So , yes, I break the rules and end up regretting it and killing it with a small loss. ...Not this time though... Not most times. And I get better at saying no as time goes by. And my ROI improves as a result.


Got a second chart I'm adding to this right now. (because of the timing right now as I'm typing. lol )

On second chart.... We've hit the blue trend line. but damn it... those yellow ones are so tempting for everyone. ...So many traders sitting on the fence . .....And then whole trade idea get's screwed... Because now we have broken that blue line. Which negates a whole bunch of trading peoples ideas for a short. ...everything falls apart.
Many people want it to hit the yellow trend lines now. (Like near the Red 'X' or something) , but then after that we've broken the blue, as mentioned, so now we could get a long bounce off of that. We go long. Short Long Short. Or consolidate.... MESSY. We HAVE no space.

This could go on and on. ....AND ALLL BECAUSE THE CONFLUENCE IS ALL F___D UP.

So confluence rocks. It's good. Very good. When it's not there it cause these problems. Bwahhhahahaa!!

So people....Plan your locations..... LOCATIONS LOCATIONS LOCATIONS.

WAIT for the best.

Had enough of this typing.
.
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #30,778
  • May 22, 2009 5:12am May 22, 2009 5:12am
Quoting bundyraider
Ok. Seriously I had all these lines on the chart before they were reacted too.
For clarity of explanation I've removed some EMAs, a pivot indicator and fib studies.

I'll edit this post in 10jmin (gotta eat!) , but for now you can see how this chart says a lot about unfinished business with the targets that haven't been hit yet. (same earlier too)
Gordon Gekko: Lunch is for wimps lol just kidding enjoy
Economists have forecast 9 out of the last 5 recessions
  • #30,779
  • May 22, 2009 5:13am May 22, 2009 5:13am
Quoting markmm
Yeah Bunny I am seeing it clearly now, PA is nothing without location. I see major locations as the following-

Weekly horizontal S/R (PPZ or highs/lows).
Big round number 1.5000, 1.6000, 100.00 , 120.00
50,61.8,76.4 Fib line from a large move on same TF as I am trading.
365/150 EMA.

If there are more than one at the same location the probability goes up.

As you say the beauty is I look for PA at these strong points (not just PB but all the PA bars) and I can set alerts. I also think it will be easier to move down a TF (4HR) using this method...
Looks like your having an "AhhA" moment yourself, Mark.

I've had this green box at the 150.00 waiting and watching Price Action around it. Fine tuning your PPZ levels and waiting for Price is worth the wait. Just ask Mike and bundy. (1st chart, sorry a little messy)

(hey, nice post bundy.)


Yes you are correct, the 4 hour time frame presents better setups when these higher level PPZs are located. I don't know how to trade lower time frames without them.
Although I see people try. (2nd chart)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #30,780
  • May 22, 2009 5:41am May 22, 2009 5:41am
Quoting ngb
Hi all. Yesterday I found a pin bar on AUD/JPY H4 chart but it failed terribly. Appreciate if anyone could tell me what's wrong with this pin bar. Thanks a lot.
bro..it has so much to do with volume..lately since on monday there have been some bizzarre intervention,and some correlation on some pair's have been ,brocken,suggest you keep strong ear out for BOJ actions...
Imanuel Parsifal
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