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  • #99,061
  • May 21, 2009 5:15pm May 21, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting TheFisherman
Atlast, I meant that for the first time in weeks SPX went down seriously while EUR went up hard. This is the stuff I've been thinking about. Something it's going to happen - the kind the world will after say: wow, how could I not notice that. For the moment EUR looks like a rabbit on crack, but equities look already stoned. If the coupling is lost that means for sure something bad happened for USD (and I wouldn't be surprised at all given the fact a clown is in charge of FED) or something even worse is cooking on Wall Street.
Thanks. I wasn't quite sure whch was leading which and was in half a mind to buy the indices on the close. I suspect something is cooking alright. Normally I don't bother to check the indices, unless I'm trading them, but today really caught my attention. With the world looking for a new standard it's only a matter of time before some disclosure officially about solid ideas in the works and that would be big news.
  • #99,062
  • Edited 5:26pm May 21, 2009 5:20pm | Edited 5:26pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I was hoping for one more run up to 1.3920 to place a nice second short but I don't think it is going to happen.
Who has an idea how far we could drop in Asia session?
I have my target @ 1.3802 (61.8% fib of last up-move)

Any idea's?
Shamu,

Just a food for thought. Around August 7 and 8, 2008, pa crossed a critical psycho level of 1.5000 down. On Daily chart it never was able to cross it back up again. This is very rare. The current down trend picked mementum after that. This was when US housing mortgage issue arose to a critical level. I am not sure if we are in a similar situation now. If this is a similar situation, may defy technicals once again. Risk is there. However, it will again be a rare situation for this pair going in reverse direction (up). I am taking this risk by placing my current shorts' stoplosse above 1.4000. My risk calculation is based on total loss at 1.6000 if a decent retrace does not occur from a) 1.4000, b) 1.4200, c) 1.4700, d) 1.5000, e) 1.5900

I have stopped watching birds, we are now in lion's territory.

As I said, this is just food for thought. I tried to park my stoplosses at 1.3940 level but not very comfortable with that. There may be a huge spike up. Once again these are just my thoughts.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,063
  • May 21, 2009 5:23pm May 21, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting SunTrader
The easy way to answer this is that I consider (as somebody wise has taught me) that for us there are EW guidelines and for others EW rules.

Look out - I think a lightning bolt just hit here!!

I guess some would say heresy about this....
Thanks, I agree x,y,z makes my head hurt. As for the rest, we don't see eye to eye on that. EW is subjective and your experience is probably right. I do on the other hand use somewhat titer standard on wave lengths. The third wave must never be the shortest, and two of 1,3,5 must be similar. as for the forth wave your right in my opinion.

I've tried using the 1.23 extension as my rule for when a fifth wave will carry on to resemble the third, but its just not reliable.
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  • #99,064
  • May 21, 2009 5:25pm May 21, 2009 5:25pm
Quoting Atlast
Thanks. I wasn't quite sure whch was leading which and was in half a mind to buy the indices on the close. I suspect something is cooking alright. Normally I don't bother to check the indices, unless I'm trading them, but today really caught my attention. With the world looking for a new standard it's only a matter of time before some disclosure officially about solid ideas in the works and that would be big news.
Yeah. Take into account that Geithner spoke two days in a row. I liked the post here of somebody asking what could he say today that he couldn't have said yesterday. Something is cooking alright. I'm not a short time trader. I'd like to know fundamentals before. And as of today I consider price actions versus fundamentals crap. Although my SPX short is starting to look good, as long as SPX doesn't beat the $hit out of 880 I am still long biased for no reason at all 'xcept that if everyone is crazy that means I have to check myself. Besides I hear many "experienced" people stating that by the end of the year EUR will trade in 2.0 with no fundamental explanation other that US is in deep $hit. That does'n do it for me. 2.0 = ECB sucks big time. Most of EU exports go to US so either they are stupid or they are on crack also (like the EURO).

[EDIT] ...OR... I am an old timer and I should start thinking EURO instead of USD
  • #99,065
  • May 21, 2009 5:33pm May 21, 2009 5:33pm
Anyone still thinking an Asian session retrace?
  • #99,066
  • May 21, 2009 5:34pm May 21, 2009 5:34pm
Thus being said we're nowhere near a SAFE short at this time IMHO:
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  • #99,067
  • May 21, 2009 5:37pm May 21, 2009 5:37pm
Quoting 4xRaider
Anyone still thinking an Asian session retrace?
Technically = Yes
Fundamentally = Don't know. Will cost 100 pips if technically wrong. SL at 1.4010
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,068
  • May 21, 2009 5:41pm May 21, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Chicky, you don't believe in a retrace from here?
Why would I be short then? But expecting a spike up before it goes down.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,069
  • May 21, 2009 5:42pm May 21, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting Chicky
Technically = Yes
Fundamentally = Don't know. Will cost 100 pips if technically wrong. SL at 1.4010
Have you consider reducing your lot if we make a new high?
  • #99,070
  • May 21, 2009 5:44pm May 21, 2009 5:44pm
How much of a spike are you expecting, Chicky? (not accounting for your 1.4010 safeguard level)
  • #99,071
  • May 21, 2009 5:47pm May 21, 2009 5:47pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Have you consider reducing your lot if we make a new high?
No, I would rather add to it if it crosses 1.4000 up. But after watching were it stalls and how. I will go long once again only after a decent retrace.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,072
  • May 21, 2009 5:47pm May 21, 2009 5:47pm
Quoting knuckledrag
........... The third wave must never be the shortest, and two of 1,3,5 must be similar...........
Well from experience I have found wave 3 shortest like I said rarely, very rarely, and more times than not 1's and 5's being different lengths with wave 5 mostly the one to come up short.

Do you just throw away a count when it doesn't fit?
  • #99,073
  • May 21, 2009 5:49pm May 21, 2009 5:49pm
Quoting SunTrader
Well from experience I have found wave 3 shortest like I said rarely, very rarely, and more times than not 1's and 5's being different lengths with wave 5 mostly the one to come up short.

Do you just throw away a count when it doesn't fit?
Many people do. I guess it's a question of probabilities. If it doesn't fit you will make more money but have a higher % of losses. Whatever suits your style.
  • #99,074
  • May 21, 2009 5:50pm May 21, 2009 5:50pm
Quoting Atlast
When it takes out the upper lines as it did on 2 occassions and doesn't fall back to the median line in a neat pattern, that is a sign that the market moves will be contained within a new track (too early to draw).

Once it broke out above 1.3820 or so it was clean air, no recent supply areas to hold it back. I like to say no-one waiting in pockets to buy/sell tickets, so no reason for the move to be stalled. The surprise for me was that it didn't make a lower base as I had my resting orders in place. The higher pushes more likely stop loss hunting...
Thanks for that; I hope you like the kite.
  • #99,075
  • Edited 6:06pm May 21, 2009 6:04pm | Edited 6:06pm
Quoting 4xRaider
How much of a spike are you expecting, Chicky? (not accounting for your 1.4010 safeguard level)
4xRaider, It is a very old rule. If it crosses a psycho level, it becomes an express train, difficult to stop. See how it corssed 1.3500 up this week and where we are now. It should stop below 1.4000 max. If not, throw technicals out of window and follow the old rule.

Last week it went below 1.3500 but couldn't go very far because it crossed that line in momentum, it was bound to go up. Same will happen on its way down. It will either cross 1.4000 in momentum or in a bid to go up to 1.4500 (with various stops in between). Today is last day of the week, I doubt it will go very far up if it is north bound train. If it stalls above 1.4000, next week will be very interesting.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,076
  • May 21, 2009 6:07pm May 21, 2009 6:07pm
but then how do you explain GBP-USD. It crossed psycho level of 5500 and did not stop. ????


Quoting Chicky
4xRaider, It is a very old rule. If it crosses a psycho level, it becomes an express train, difficult to stop. See how it corssed 1.3500 up this week and where we are now. It should stop below 1.4000 max. If not, throw technicals out of window and follow the old rule.

Last week it went below 1.3500 but couldn't go very far because it crossed that line in momentum, it was bound to go up. Same will happen on its way down. It will either cross 1.4000 in momentum or in a bid to go up to 1.4500 (with various stops in between). Today is last day of...
Its all in the mind.
  • #99,077
  • May 21, 2009 6:10pm May 21, 2009 6:10pm
all of these important too, but I feel currently there is only one major force that is shaping things as they are- fears that US rating is going to be degraded. be careful here, it may go higher than 4000.

It is funny to see how fickle minded markets are, EURO-USD is trading way above its fair value. Just because of these fears.

Quoting Chicky
4xRaider, It is a very old rule. If it crosses a psycho level, it becomes an express train, difficult to stop. See how it corssed 1.3500 up this week and where we are now. It should stop below 1.4000 max. If not, throw technicals out of window and follow the old rule.

Last week it went below 1.3500 but couldn't go very far because it crossed that line in momentum, it was bound to go up. Same will happen on its way down. It will either cross 1.4000 in momentum or in a bid to go up to 1.4500 (with various stops in between). Today is last day of...
Its all in the mind.
  • #99,078
  • May 21, 2009 6:11pm May 21, 2009 6:11pm
Quoting SunTrader
Well from experience I have found wave 3 shortest like I said rarely, very rarely, and more times than not 1's and 5's being different lengths with wave 5 mostly the one to come up short.

Do you just throw away a count when it doesn't fit?
Yes and no, most of the time it resolves itself on a larger time frame. Most that do confuse me (not that that's hard) wind up as a small part of a larger wave.
Yes I agree 5 is often the shortest. Similar to me is .618 to 1.23.

Nothing always works. Hell sometime twice in a row is a stretch.
  • #99,079
  • May 21, 2009 6:11pm May 21, 2009 6:11pm
Quoting 5abi
but then how do you explain GBP-USD. It crossed psycho level of 5500 and did not stop. ????

Because psycho levels take time to develop. The mere fact that it is a psycho level means that it has been tested then retested then tested again...etc...the more it's tested the more it is a psycho level and hence the significane when it is breached. I don't trade GBPUSD and haven't seen a chart of it for a very long time but if you look I feel that you will find what I have stated to be the truth. Avoid platitudes.
  • #99,080
  • May 21, 2009 6:17pm May 21, 2009 6:17pm
okay i hear you. I misread round numbers 00,50 etc. A 1.5500 GU does not hold same weight as a 5000 EU level, I re-read OP post and I see 5000 EU level why important


Quoting notch
Because psycho levels take time to develop. The mere fact that it is a psycho level means that it has been tested then retested then tested again...etc...the more it's tested the more it is a psycho level and hence the significane when it is breached. I don't trade GBPUSD and haven't seen a chart of it for a very long time but if you look I feel that you will find what I have stated to be the truth. Avoid platitudes.
Its all in the mind.
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