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  • #99,001
  • May 21, 2009 12:41pm May 21, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting Bluemeanie
What cycle are you using Notch?
Something I've developed. I'm just post it'sm position when it crosses above and below zero in the hope that someone find the info' useful.
  • #99,002
  • May 21, 2009 12:42pm May 21, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting vinesh2
Chicky, if possible on the retrace take profits off the table and dont be greedy. Also its possible that this run might spike to 1.40 area but thats it. It should not go any furher then that in this run up. Also, most likely the big players are making this move to suck in higher level longs. They are breaking all sorts of resistance levels to suck them in. But take profits as u go. And dont try to trade both sides of the trend. Stay on the side of the trend. Right now the trend is up so you should have stayed with the trend. Since you are already...
I will follow your advice and take my profits off the table as soon as possible. I am in for a pre-determined loss
figure. This time is way too high than my normal i.e. last week's profits plus 2.5%. But this is a major move and worth taking a moderate risk. Thanks Venish.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,003
  • May 21, 2009 12:42pm May 21, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting Chicky
It was a gut feeling that something was cooking. Like Psi mentioned in his post. PA was delayed for more than 12 hours on it way up. This is again delayed for equal number of hours. But it should fall. If not because of any other reason, based on trading pattern and trader's behavior. Some people will have to spend money on Friday and many would not take risk of leaving their profits on table over the weekend.
i dont do this often but there is a little hs on the 5m as i write.. i expect a little retrace so it fits in with that my tp is 3826 but may go a little lower sl above todays high.. just a little position.. but the tp area may be your out.. till retrace
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,004
  • May 21, 2009 12:44pm May 21, 2009 12:44pm
Quoting notch
Lad, I have never claimed to be a quant expert. In fact you already know that I have stated that I can't get my head around Wilmott plus I'm currently reading quant' trader by Mr. Chen. Again, this is a field that interests me and that's why I have the aforementioned study books. No drama, no lie, no problem & so what I write many posts if you don't like it put me on ignore. Okay?

This is fun!
Fair enough, if it's a subject you know very little about. You should have said so when I asked about the vol curve, instead of bluffing an answer. But no problem there. We are all constantly learning. You name dropped "Garch" earlier on, which inferred to me an in depth knowledge of vol.

I only picked up on it because of what I peceived to be an extremely arrogant and rude tone used in some of your posts on this forum, in that they were both disparaging and disrespectful towards other traders. That's just my opinion, of course.

And I'm always suspicious of posters who appear from nowwhere talking about their mysterious robots and enhanced systems, but disclose no actual details. It leads me to suspect they are not being upfront about their motives for using the forum. Time will tell on that one.

Good luck.
  • #99,005
  • May 21, 2009 12:45pm May 21, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting vinesh2
Also its possible that this run might spike to 1.40 area but thats it. It should not go any furher then that in this run up. Also, most likely the big players are making this move to suck in higher level longs. They are breaking all sorts of resistance levels to suck them in.
I have a level of 1.4054 in 4 hr chart, so there's always the possibility of more upside . Definitely the move today, although not unexpected, had some unusualness about it like you say.
For today there appears a good probability for the retrace to get near 1.3830 or below
  • #99,006
  • May 21, 2009 12:48pm May 21, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I'll post another 4H chart in a little while, where you can see how nicely the Gann HiLo shows the up trend still being valid, even after the >100 pips down move 10 hours ago or so.
Thanks Shamu,

Up trend is very very visible. I failed in combining two approaches 1) Going with the trend, 2) Going against it.
Intended to combine my usual game of playing retraces with following the trend approach. This up move was a bit stronger than I initially thought and therefore a delayed retraced. But I would say my major mistake was focussing too much on 1H chart than Daily. Had I followed my daily chart, above 1.3900 was the right time to START entering shorts. I entered a bit early.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,007
  • Edited 12:56pm May 21, 2009 12:55pm | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
i dont do this often but there is a little hs on the 5m as i write.. i expect a little retrace so it fits in with that my tp is 3826 but may go a little lower sl above todays high.. just a little position.. but the tp area may be your out.. till retrace
Gator, I will take 50% off the table at this level. My daily chart reading never deceived me, nine out of ten times. This time I didn't follow in a bid to spot trend direction on 1H chart. I was off focus. But now, looking at daily chart more carefully, and it tell me a moderate retrace of about 150 pips. But I will take 50% of my profits off the table as several friends advised me. I am really grateful for their concern and help. Thanks to all.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,008
  • May 21, 2009 12:56pm May 21, 2009 12:56pm
Quoting gammase1

And I'm always suspicious of posters who appear from nowwhere talking about their mysterious robots and enhanced systems, but disclose no actual details. It leads me to suspect they are not being upfront about their motives for using the forum. Time will tell on that one.

Good luck.
Call me naive, which I am not, but he doesn't come across that way to me at all. He is clearly thinking aloud and looking for feedback with his various strategies and showing what can work. Isn't that what the FF is partly about otherwise it would be dull.
Seems to be a lot of suspiciousness here about new members although I realise some charlatans use the forums to tout their wares .
  • #99,009
  • May 21, 2009 12:56pm May 21, 2009 12:56pm
Hi everyone. I have bad news for my trade... In little more than a month I lost more than half of my initial deposit. I feel miserable now and my mistakes seem so obvious from that moment. I'll try to recover the money very cautiously and persistantly. I'll lower my margin first. I want an advice from you. How many of you have been in similar situation and how you managed to get out of this mental disaster?The trend tryed to be my friend, but I was my own enemy in this situation. I messed the things up and the bad thing is that I was so optimistic... I feel so sad now... But I'm neither the first nor the last, just tell me about your experience. Thank you.
Panamera Lifestyle
  • #99,010
  • May 21, 2009 12:57pm May 21, 2009 12:57pm
guys there is a big divergence on H1 and H4...i think its gonna fall sharply...
  • #99,011
  • May 21, 2009 1:00pm May 21, 2009 1:00pm
Wow, man. I should stick more to my screen! Been out again, EUR kicks a$$ again.

Like I said this morning. I've been short biased on SPX until last night. Now I'm long biased and something had to happen. Right. Huge divergence stocks vs. EUR.

Hmm... wasn't the crisis still on last time I checked?
  • #99,012
  • May 21, 2009 1:02pm May 21, 2009 1:02pm
Quoting gammase1
Fair enough, if it's a subject you know very little about.

Good luck.
Paul,
I respect what you have stated. I admit that my communication skills could do with some work but hopefully - in time - people will realise that the commuications skills displayed in my posts are nothing more than a person who needs to improve those skills.

Throwing GARCH out there was more in the hope of finding somebody who had an interest and understanding in that particular area because that is where I am right now.

Unlike you, I have had to develop my techniques without the feedback of a trading room, market making peers and while holding down quite demanding full-time jobs.

When you refered to vol I actually thought you meant volume/market profile. As far as stationary va non-stationary, GARCH, implied vs implied volitility, GREEKS, spreads, triangle, stocastic processes etc I am still at the beginning (been there for a while) of a steep learning curve.

Regarding fees and motives...the return from sharing will come from how people use the methods that I share. I have a back catalogue of valuable systems and methods that - after being here for a short while - makes me think sharing with other users will help me to understand how I can can make better profits from them. This has already occurred with a user of my data highlighting precisely how they reveal important range and breakout information.

I'm here to make money from the market and not from other traders; it is also great to be able to share new techniques and old ones that have been put on hold. I think that I offer alot and if I am inadvertently arrogant, aloof and bombastic then, I believe, that is a small price to pay.

Thanks for your input.
Notch.
  • #99,013
  • May 21, 2009 1:05pm May 21, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting Atlast
Call me naive, which I am not, but he doesn't come across that way to me at all. He is clearly thinking aloud and looking for feedback with his various strategies and showing what can work. Isn't that what the FF is partly about otherwise it would be dull.
Seems to be a lot of suspiciousness here about new members although I realise some charlatans use the forums to tout their wares .

Thanks.
  • #99,014
  • Edited 1:09pm May 21, 2009 1:07pm | Edited 1:09pm
The Fisherman, Where have you been. Could you fill us in with more insight about the divergences you're seeing. It's something that's been out of place today.
  • #99,015
  • May 21, 2009 1:10pm May 21, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting Drizzt
Hi everyone. I have bad news for my trade... In little more than a month I lost more than half of my initial deposit. I feel miserable now and my mistakes seem so obvious from that moment. I'll try to recover the money very cautiously and persistantly. I'll lower my margin first. I want an advice from you. How many of you have been in similar situation and how you managed to get out of this mental disaster?The trend tryed to be my friend, but I was my own enemy in this situation. I messed the things up and the bad thing is that I was so optimistic......

I've been there many many times in the past; in fact blew the entire account a number of times when starting out. Even many in the book market Wizards blew it a few times. But - as I tried to highlight in an earlier post - if it is done too many times it can leave an emotional imprint which is quite hard to overcome. That's why it's important to learn how to do the right thing early on and holding on to a losing position in the hope that it turns around may work once or even twice but eventually it will catch up with you, and if it doesn't blow your account it may blow you emotionally heightening emotion risk aversion at the sub-conscious level.
  • #99,016
  • May 21, 2009 1:13pm May 21, 2009 1:13pm
Quoting macd
guys there is a big divergence on H1 and H4...i think its gonna fall sharply...
Can you elaborate? What divergence? Are you making that prediction purely based on divergence or other indicators?
  • #99,017
  • May 21, 2009 1:22pm May 21, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting notch
I've been there many many times in the past; in fact blew the entire account a number of times when starting out. Even many in the book market Wizards blew it a few times. But - as I tried to highlight in an earlier post - if it is done too many times it can leave an emotional imprint which is quite hard to overcome. That's why it's important to learn how to do the right thing early on and holding on to a losing position in the hope that it turns around may work once or even twice but eventually it will catch up with you, and if it doesn't blow...
Thanks, notch. I appreciate your support and the good thing is that I'm still in the game. I'm staying out for awhile working on demo. I'll finish my masters thesys and will graduate very soon. That will keep me busy in the next weeks. I need a rest but will keep an eye on the market. Wish you all success!
Panamera Lifestyle
  • #99,018
  • May 21, 2009 1:27pm May 21, 2009 1:27pm
Quoting Drizzt
Hi everyone. I have bad news for my trade... In little more than a month I lost more than half of my initial deposit. I feel miserable now and my mistakes seem so obvious from that moment. I'll try to recover the money very cautiously and persistantly. I'll lower my margin first. I want an advice from you. How many of you have been in similar situation and how you managed to get out of this mental disaster?The trend tryed to be my friend, but I was my own enemy in this situation. I messed the things up and the bad thing is that I was so optimistic......
Drizzt, my friend.

I am no expert in making profits, however, posses much experience how to incurr loss. That experience helped me overcome this issue. I am now overall consistently profitable for last several months. These are my suggestions based on my experience:

1. Never ever ( I repeat, never ever) try to recover your losses. Start from your current account balance.
2. The only way to learn this game is to be in this game. You do not want to multiply your account balance. You want to make consistent profits regardless of its amount. Therefore reduce your position sizes to minimum possible. I repeat minimum possible, and this could be $.0001 per pip or even less. Remember your objective is not to multiply your account balance in shortest possible time but over long term.
3. Please pay attention to this statement. Your mental capital (confidence) is much more important than your $ account capital or your time capital. Dont' let greed get you. If you lose money, you lose your mental capital.
4. Let opportunities go by. Do not try to chase opportunities.
5. People fail because they do not want to make money. YES. If a trad turns into their favor, they take little profit off but let their losses run. Do the math yourself. If you take $1 profit on 7 trades and do not close rest 3 when in loss, you had it even on one trade.
6. Not be afraid of taking a chance of letting your profits run into losses. If you are not comfortable with it, take 50% off and let rest run for you with sl (not at BE or BE+1) but at a point above a resistance (if you are short) or below a support (if you are long).
7. Consider this a game of probability i.e. More winning trades than the number of losing trades of equal amounts.
8. Follow your rules not your feelings.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #99,019
  • May 21, 2009 1:31pm May 21, 2009 1:31pm
[quote=Chicky;2749686]Drizzt, my friend.

I am no expert in making profits, however, posses much experience how to incurr loss. That experience helped me overcome this issue. I am now overall consistently profitable for last several months. These are my suggestions based on my experience:


[quote]


VERY good advice. I'll take a point off there for myself.
  • #99,020
  • May 21, 2009 1:38pm May 21, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting Drizzt
Hi everyone. I have bad news for my trade... In little more than a month I lost $xxxxx of my initial deposit. I feel miserable now and my mistakes seem so obvious from that moment.... How many of you have been in similar situation and how you managed to get out of this mental disaster?.
(Duce slowly raises his hand)

In my case, I had a big enough float to weather the storm and wait for the retrace. But it took quite a while and my nerves we shot. If I had had more experience, I would have rode the wave back to zero profit with a reverse trade and actually made some money. That never happened. I was gun shy for a long time after that. Some small positive trades will help you rebuild some confidence. Stick to the basics.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
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