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  • #98,981
  • May 21, 2009 1:57pm May 21, 2009 1:57pm
Quoting Chicky
Made 25 pip and lost 125. If it goes like this, I will soon reach ultimate end of trading. Should better enter another full position short from here. It should not cross 1.4000. If it does, will reverse my both short positions to long for 1.4200 target.
i gave 30 up.. it didnt move so i closed position.. i made 45 on gy at a double position. so im ahead. but normaly id still be ridding this thing down.. things should be back to normal in a day or 2.. if eu dont run north with the ball now. then i dont know what will make em run.. equitys sold off before closing last 2 days.. if it happens today eu may shake off rating news.. sorry about your loss.. other then the news you played it right..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,982
  • May 21, 2009 1:59pm May 21, 2009 1:59pm
If this candle holds down strong it looks like a short-term top to me. I've got a short stop in just below the R1 and 50% fib at 1.3820. If it makes it down that far I think we're on to make it back to the open.
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  • #98,983
  • May 21, 2009 2:01pm May 21, 2009 2:01pm
Quoting Chicky
I closed half of my long at 1.3812 and another half at 1.3823 or so. Then went for a retrace at 1.3832. This is where I made the first mistake. The second mistake was to top up my short to a full position at 1.3880. Third mistake which I just committed is to add another full short position at this level i.e. just above 1.3900. This all happend because I kept my eyes off the daily chart. I was carried away assuming we are in trend reversal, which were are not at the moment. I am very very weak in spotting trend direction, will have to pay some tuition...
Dude,
Seriously, I don't want any trader paying unnecessary tuition...monetary tuition is a bargain but emotional tuition can ruin you as a trader.

Anyway, please buy and read 'Technician's Guide to Day & Swing Trading' by Martin Pring. Whenever I read a post by AtLast ot FXExpress I immediately think that they have digested this book (apart from the 100SMA SL) but they obviously haven't they are just outstanding traders. If you want to fully understand and appreciate a trend reversal and to understand what the seasoned traders refer to in here. Please buy the book - it will take a weekend to read. No es caro es muy barato!
  • #98,984
  • May 21, 2009 2:02pm May 21, 2009 2:02pm
Quoting SeerEye
my platform {not charting} did freeze on me this morn - missed a nice little move too - fam dasterds.
mine wasnt frozen... the gy was screaming lower as the eu stopped to take a shit...thats my bitch normaly it would of been a full sprint lower for both pairs when s/p hit support..the zombie move was because of speculation u.s. may get a rating cut sometime in the future or never. fricking bill gross of pimco..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,985
  • May 21, 2009 2:03pm May 21, 2009 2:03pm
Chicky, you did not commit a mistake. EU is in need of a big retrace and if you see your chart 1.39 area is formidable resistance zone. EU is not going to break that level on the 1st try. Hang on that short it will be a good one if you have capacity to hold for a week. Dollar index also at asupport level and if we can stay at that support look for dollar to bounce back next week.
  • #98,986
  • Edited 2:08pm May 21, 2009 2:08pm | Edited 2:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
i gave 30 up.. it didnt move so i closed position.. i made 45 on gy at a double position. so im ahead. but normaly id still be ridding this thing down.. things should be back to normal in a day or 2.. if eu dont run north with the ball now. then i dont know what will make em run.. equitys sold off before closing last 2 days.. if it happens today eu may shake off rating news.. sorry about your loss.. other then the news you played it right..
Yes, Gator, It now looks like a game of nerves. Jay is away, so I cannot order balls of steel. I am break-even for the month now. Lost all of what made in the last week. I think my current position is right, just needs a little bit of sitting tight. We are now near thursday close, and pa has developed a pattern of going in one direction for most of the last few fridays. Maybe tomorrows direction is south. I am recovering as I type this.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #98,987
  • May 21, 2009 2:11pm May 21, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting gammase1
I was kind of expecting some analysis on the current levels of implied volatility quoted on EURUSD, your basic thoughts on the ATMF quotes, just as I requested.

For your information, quoted implied vol across the EURUSD curve has dropped to levels last seen just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Although we've witnessed a small uptick in quotes in the past 24 hours, the moves in FX implied vol since the Lehman's collapse has broadly followed the similar improvements in equities, VIX, LIBOR-OIS spread, credit spreads and other...

Ya nice try!

If I'm struggling with:

Quoting notch
Oh good. I have an interest in your field but I'm finding Wilmotts Quant Finance 3 vol tomb a real challenge. Have you read his books?

What makes you think I'm able to answer complex questions regarding the Greeks?

Dude, haven't you got anything else better to do with your time than play these petty games?...no need to answer...it's a rhetorical question. I'll put you on ignore to save us both time-wasting.
  • #98,988
  • May 21, 2009 2:12pm May 21, 2009 2:12pm
I think you may have it on simple. Change to smooth MA.

MK

Quoting Jeg
"Example of how trading 100 SMA bounces can be as long as you keep your stop on the other side of the fence. Actually, I have a small load still running from entry on 5/18, I just add lots at the bounces. This can be very deadly."

MK
Hi FXexpress, I attached a 100SMA at a 15M chart but it doesn't look like yours. Am I doing something wrong? Thanks for the advice[/quote]
  • #98,989
  • May 21, 2009 2:15pm May 21, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting notch
Ya nice try!

If I'm struggling with:




What makes you think I'm able to answer complex questions regarding the Greeks?

Dude, haven't you got anything else better to do with your time than play these petty games?...no need to answer...it's a rhetorical question. I'll put you on ignore to save us both time-wasting.
Says the dude with 600 posts in one month.

Your full of much BS, Notchiebaby. Despite being a self-proclaimed quant expert, you couldn't even answer a basic question about vol. Instead, you respond with a stinking heap of manure, totally not related to the topic. There's no shame in admitting you don't know. I am happy to teach.

Good luck.
  • #98,990
  • May 21, 2009 2:16pm May 21, 2009 2:16pm
Quoting Chicky
Yes, Gator, It now looks like a game of nerves. Jay is away, so I cannot order balls of steel. I am break-even for the month now. Lost all of what made in the last week. I think my current position is right, just needs a little bit of sitting tight. We are now near thursday close, and pa has developed a pattern of going in one direction for most of the last few fridays. Maybe tomorrows direction is south. I am recovering as I type this.
we have been waiting for equitys to drop.. it has the news was unforseen.. you played it right. you should be 100 pips in the green now with good resistance..had this of happend last week without the news you would be on top of a reversal longer time..you were robbed. its the wild wild west in forex..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,991
  • May 21, 2009 2:18pm May 21, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting vinesh2
Chicky, you did not commit a mistake. EU is in need of a big retrace and if you see your chart 1.39 area is formidable resistance zone. EU is not going to break that level on the 1st try. Hang on that short it will be a good one if you have capacity to hold for a week. Dollar index also at asupport level and if we can stay at that support look for dollar to bounce back next week.
Thanks Vinesh. I am doing exactly what you advise. I am going to stick to my position until it crosses 1.4000. All my calculations say it should retrace near to 1.3750.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #98,992
  • May 21, 2009 2:20pm May 21, 2009 2:20pm
I am seeing a top based on EW 5th waves on 4H and 1H and weekly R3 and Monthly R2 being hit:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #98,993
  • May 21, 2009 2:25pm May 21, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
we have been waiting for equitys to drop.. it has the news was unforseen.. you played it right. you should be 100 pips in the green now with good resistance..had this of happend last week without the news you would be on top of a reversal longer time..you were robbed. its the wild wild west in forex..
It was a gut feeling that something was cooking. Like Psi mentioned in his post. PA was delayed for more than 12 hours on it way up. This is again delayed for equal number of hours. But it should fall. If not because of any other reason, based on trading pattern and trader's behavior. Some people will have to spend money on Friday and many would not take risk of leaving their profits on table over the weekend.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #98,994
  • May 21, 2009 2:27pm May 21, 2009 2:27pm
Chicky, if possible on the retrace take profits off the table and dont be greedy. Also its possible that this run might spike to 1.40 area but thats it. It should not go any furher then that in this run up. Also, most likely the big players are making this move to suck in higher level longs. They are breaking all sorts of resistance levels to suck them in. But take profits as u go. And dont try to trade both sides of the trend. Stay on the side of the trend. Right now the trend is up so you should have stayed with the trend. Since you are already in a position wait and see how it goes dont risk more the 2% of your account unless you have a large margin. Dont be greedy always have SL's in place and since you are still learning dont try to scalp become a swing trader and demo trade or use half size lots instead of full lot.
  • #98,995
  • May 21, 2009 2:28pm May 21, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting SunTrader
I am seeing a top based on EW 5th waves on 4H and 1H and weekly R3 and Monthly R2 being hit:

Thanks, I am expecting to see a downward move during the Asian session. Don't know how far.
  • #98,996
  • May 21, 2009 2:28pm May 21, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting gammase1
Says the dude with 600 posts in one month.

Your full of much BS, Notchiebaby. Despite being a self-proclaimed quant expert, you couldn't even answer a basic question about vol. Instead, you respond with a stinking heap of manure, totally not related to the topic. There's no shame in admitting you don't know. I am happy to teach.

Good luck.

Lad, I have never claimed to be a quant expert. In fact you already know that I have stated that I can't get my head around Wilmott plus I'm currently reading quant' trader by Mr. Chen. Again, this is a field that interests me and that's why I have the aforementioned study books. No drama, no lie, no problem & so what I write many posts if you don't like it put me on ignore. Okay?

This is fun!
  • #98,997
  • May 21, 2009 2:30pm May 21, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting Chicky
It was a gut feeling that something was cooking. Like Psi mentioned in his post. PA was delayed for more than 12 hours on it way up. This is again delayed for equal number of hours. But it should fall. If not because of any other reason, based on trading pattern and trader's behavior. Some people will have to spend money on Friday and many would not take risk of leaving their profits on table over the weekend.
Hey, been there and done that. Hang tight, it will retrace-it's way overbought according to my news feed.
  • #98,998
  • May 21, 2009 2:32pm May 21, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting Chicky
I closed half of my long at 1.3812 and another half at 1.3823 or so. Then went for a retrace at 1.3832. This is where I made the first mistake. The second mistake was to top up my short to a full position at 1.3880. Third mistake which I just committed is to add another full short position at this level i.e. just above 1.3900. This all happend because I kept my eyes off the daily chart. I was carried away assuming we are in trend reversal, which were are not at the moment. I am very very weak in spotting trend direction, will have to pay some tuition...
I'll post another 4H chart in a little while, where you can see how nicely the Gann HiLo shows the up trend still being valid, even after the >100 pips down move 10 hours ago or so.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #98,999
  • May 21, 2009 2:35pm May 21, 2009 2:35pm
Cycle crossed below Zero!
  • #99,000
  • May 21, 2009 2:39pm May 21, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting notch
Cycle crossed Zero!
What cycle are you using Notch?
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