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  • #98,961
  • May 21, 2009 1:31pm May 21, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting knuckledrag
We're not in Kansas anymore Toto. 1.3850 was key 1.4300 is the next long term point to watch. With the UK being put in triple A time out and rumors of the US being looked at for its rating, 1.43 may not be out of the question.
If I correctly read your chart, you are currently short. Is this a short term position?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #98,962
  • May 21, 2009 1:32pm May 21, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting fxstman
Just wanted to say Thanks notch for sharing. In forex you will never stop learning. And with the help of others, It makes it possible to due so.

fxst

It's my genuine pleasure.
  • #98,963
  • May 21, 2009 1:33pm May 21, 2009 1:33pm
im short since 1.3920 expecting a easy 40 pips it may go up high to 1.3940 probably if it does ill add to my shorts,,, happy trading
  • #98,964
  • May 21, 2009 1:33pm May 21, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting egkid
True and logic to me
I keep sending post last 2 weeks but no one listen ok better stop posting.
Hi Barbie
Hi Ken!
Do you wanna go for a ride?
Sure Ken!
Jump In...
What can i say
  • #98,965
  • May 21, 2009 1:35pm May 21, 2009 1:35pm
Quoting egkid
I sent this post under name "am i the crazy one "
Seem i wasn't crazy
yeah your analyse predicted the news.. go blow smoke up another ass..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,966
  • May 21, 2009 1:36pm May 21, 2009 1:36pm
Quoting GastonCorzo
im short since 1.3920 expecting a easy 40 pips it may go up high to 1.3940 probably if it does ill add to my shorts,,, happy trading
dunno if it's gunna be an easy 40 pips - hang on to your hat; be nimble, be quick - and don't blink - 'cause this PA will kill ya if you aren't on top of things.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #98,967
  • May 21, 2009 1:38pm May 21, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
well we had the right plan.. freaking pimco ect. screwed us..
Plans change---or maybe its the same plan. Short below 1.3850 and long above. 1.3850 was the strongest point to turn this ship on, so up we go.

Now watch the damn thing tank
I'm looking for some nice safe pull back
  • #98,968
  • May 21, 2009 1:39pm May 21, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting Atlast
Unless I am confusing you with someone ele, were you not looking for a longer term buy? What happened.
I closed half of my long at 1.3812 and another half at 1.3823 or so. Then went for a retrace at 1.3832. This is where I made the first mistake. The second mistake was to top up my short to a full position at 1.3880. Third mistake which I just committed is to add another full short position at this level i.e. just above 1.3900. This all happend because I kept my eyes off the daily chart. I was carried away assuming we are in trend reversal, which were are not at the moment. I am very very weak in spotting trend direction, will have to pay some tuition fee before I learn.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #98,969
  • May 21, 2009 1:41pm May 21, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting knuckledrag
I'm looking for some nice safe pull back
me thinks that might just be an oxymoron in this nice 'calm' environment.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #98,970
  • May 21, 2009 1:42pm May 21, 2009 1:42pm
Quoting SeerEye
dunno if it's gunna be an easy 40 pips - hang on to your hat; be nimble, be quick - and don't blink - 'cause this PA will kill ya if you aren't on top of things.
yeap i have close half of my posicions just in case the run continues but im keeping the rest till 1.3870 what u think?
  • #98,971
  • May 21, 2009 1:44pm May 21, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting Chicky
If I correctly read your chart, you are currently short. Is this a short term position?
No positions on that chart. I left the market at 3850
  • #98,972
  • May 21, 2009 1:46pm May 21, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting knuckledrag
Plans change---or maybe its the same plan. Short below 1.3850 and long above. 1.3850 was the strongest point to turn this ship on, so up we go.

Now watch the damn thing tank
I'm looking for some nice safe pull back
normaly this thing would have reversed a hundred pips on s/p news.. and would of never been that high in first place..i thought my platform was frozen...
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,973
  • May 21, 2009 1:46pm May 21, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting SeerEye
me thinks that might just be an oxymoron in this nice 'calm' environment.
I may be waiting past 1.600
  • #98,974
  • May 21, 2009 1:47pm May 21, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting GastonCorzo
yeap i have close half of my posicions just in case the run continues but im keeping the rest till 1.3870 what u think?
It matters not what I think {seriously}. I trade better when I don't. I did my thinking beforehand with my trading plan - now I just wait for permission to execute those signals.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #98,975
  • May 21, 2009 1:47pm May 21, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting SeerEye
It matters not what I think {seriously}. I trade better when I don't. I did my thinking beforehand with my trading plan - now I just wait for permission to execute those signals.
Best way. Hesitation costs pippage.

I can't wait until I've fully learnt that lesson!
  • #98,976
  • May 21, 2009 1:48pm May 21, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting Chicky
I closed half of my long at 1.3812 and another half at 1.3823 or so. Then went for a retrace at 1.3832. This is where I made the first mistake. The second mistake was to top up my short to a full position at 1.3880. Third mistake which I just committed is to add another full short position at this level i.e. just above 1.3900. This all happend because I kept my eyes off the daily chart. I was carried away assuming we are in trend reversal, which were are not at the moment. I am very very weak in spotting trend direction, will have to pay some tuition...

If it's any consolation, I've been there before. I know how easy it is to get caught like that.
Strategically, the points you chose to average down were 50 pips apart, except for the last one, so that wasn't bad.
It may just fall down to the 1.3838 area, but I wouldn't count on it.
  • #98,977
  • May 21, 2009 1:49pm May 21, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting gatorinla
.i thought my platform was frozen...
my platform {not charting} did freeze on me this morn - missed a nice little move too - fam dasterds.
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #98,978
  • May 21, 2009 1:50pm May 21, 2009 1:50pm
Quoting notch
I can't wait until I've fully learnt that lesson!
Neither can I!
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #98,979
  • May 21, 2009 1:51pm May 21, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting notch
The market really doesn't like these levels. Historically, it has spent a very short amount of time here. Historically, both both parties have agreed that these levels do not represent value but since the auction process caused an upward distribution from the following levels 1.35503 to 1.36013 on numerous occassions we favour demand being cut once price has been bid up to 1.46209.

Once 1.46209 has been achieved it is likely that there will be period of consolidation between 1.36905 - 1.46209. However, the auction process is likely to continue...
I was kind of expecting some analysis on the current levels of implied volatility quoted on EURUSD, your basic thoughts on the ATMF quotes, just as I requested.

For your information, quoted implied vol across the EURUSD curve has dropped to levels last seen just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Although we've witnessed a small uptick in quotes in the past 24 hours, the moves in FX implied vol since the Lehman's collapse has broadly followed the similar improvements in equities, VIX, LIBOR-OIS spread, credit spreads and other measures of risk appetite.

As you'd expect, there exists a noticeable skew on the 25 delta riskie, with the 1m showing trading 0.8 over, up from 0.6 this morning. This comes as no surprise, given the trading we've witnessed in the spot market, that we are seeing such directional pressures.

This begs the question, has the market got ahead of itself in pricing risk in FX? Do you want to be long or short vega at these levels? And, if so, at what maturities? Don't worry, these are rhetorical questions. No need to attempt an answer.
  • #98,980
  • May 21, 2009 1:53pm May 21, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting Atlast

If it's any consolation, I've been there before. I know how easy it is to get caught like that.
Strategically, the points you chose to average down were 50 pips apart, except for the last one, so that wasn't bad.
It may just fall down to the 1.3838 area, but I wouldn't count on it.
Yes. I have my tps just above 2 pips above 1.3838. That would be logical. I cannot turn the market in my fovor, neither can fight with it. But can try to go right from this poin onward. Mistakes are history now, and no one can change the history, so let's learn from them.
The Thief of Wall Street
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