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  • #98,661
  • May 21, 2009 4:23am May 21, 2009 4:23am
It looks like the movement will go down more
  • #98,662
  • Edited 4:44am May 21, 2009 4:24am | Edited 4:44am
Quoting The Fool
Hi Notch:

Stock futures down; oil down. The $ should gain against the euro if these correlations still make sense. Why do you go long?

Because I have already over filled the shed with today's quota of pips doing what I'm doing. Additionally, these positions aren't fixed in stone and can change very suddenly. Further, the predicted high and lows are constructed using intermarket analysis (including oil, gold, DAX, S&P futures, FT100 futures and the FX majors) while I don't follow them, I think they indicate that cross-intermarket correlations aren't as straight forward as 'stock futures are down, oil down etc'. Does your analysis take in to consider the 1st and 2nd derivatives of the change in prices and run a cross-correlation against these things? What is the cross correlation between Gold and Oil and how does that output relate to movements in the EURUSD. It's not straight forward.

P.S. Sorry if the above is a blunt read. I meant nothing by it.

But having written that, I could be wrong because I frequently am but still make a profit.
  • #98,663
  • May 21, 2009 4:28am May 21, 2009 4:28am
Quoting candlesticks
EUR-USD made volatile move up & down. Coming back inside the triangle. I have discounted this price action as movement on EUR & GBP report releases.

If 1.3754 holds we have a good chance of going higher. But if 1.3754 breaks we should have a H&S formation with 1.3683 as target.
I like that concept. Then you would trade the breakout of the triangle.
I am now hesitant taking any shorts and would wait for a longer term buy. May change my mind accordingly.
  • #98,664
  • May 21, 2009 4:29am May 21, 2009 4:29am
Dont you just love having your stops eaten by 2 pips after some moran misstates a number?
  • #98,665
  • May 21, 2009 4:35am May 21, 2009 4:35am
Quoting Galatasaray
i am not comfortable shorting eurusd anymore
I'm not comfortable either way at the moment!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #98,666
  • May 21, 2009 4:36am May 21, 2009 4:36am
Quoting Atlast
Only just saw it. No, I think the discussion has ended. He asked me to post a chart, I did, he made his comments, I did. End of matter. On to trading.

oh ...no more fighting


Anyway, I had a long think about it yesterday and intend to follow your advice about finding an additional confirmation indicator to work along side the 'Notch Cycle.' At the moment I'm just considering using major S/R as well as TLs. I managed to capture a LARGE chunk of earlier's volitility so I'm feeling more confident after yesterday's fleecing.
  • #98,667
  • May 21, 2009 4:42am May 21, 2009 4:42am
UK Treasury: S&P say outlook could be revised back to stable
Written by Gerry Davies
May 21, 2009 at 09:32 GMT

The UK Treasury says S&P could revise back its negative outlook for Britain’s sovereign debt rating given the uncertainty in the econmic outlook. Cable on steadier footing in wake of comments, presently back around 1.5600

Treasury spokesman has said “There are significant uncertainties in the global economy at the present time and S&P point out that the outlook could be revised back to stable ‘if fiscal outturns are more benign than (they) currently anticipate’.”

The spokesman adds “The Budget set out a clear plan to halve the deficit in five years. That judgement was based on a deliberately cautious view of the public finances.”
  • #98,668
  • May 21, 2009 4:45am May 21, 2009 4:45am
Having said i wouldn't short, I just did at 1.3802 with 4 pip SL
  • #98,669
  • May 21, 2009 4:48am May 21, 2009 4:48am
Fake up and fake down over. Back to consolidation...carry on with your usual scalping..............stay nimble tho..
  • #98,670
  • May 21, 2009 4:49am May 21, 2009 4:49am
Quoting Atlast
Having said i wouldn't short, I just did at 1.3802 with 4 pip SL
I like you when you risk

I have a pending buy @ 3774

what do you think ?
I SEE YOU !!
  • #98,671
  • May 21, 2009 4:49am May 21, 2009 4:49am
im short at 1.3807 stop at 1.3840, got in about an hour and 10 mins ago, missing the 50-60 pip downward move as i went out to smoke a ciggarette, guess i should quit smoking.
  • #98,672
  • May 21, 2009 4:50am May 21, 2009 4:50am
My SL moved to BE.
Anyone else see something here. It's tentative.
  • #98,673
  • May 21, 2009 4:53am May 21, 2009 4:53am
Quoting dbfusion
I like you when you risk

I have a pending buy @ 3774

what do you think ?
I don't know at this stage best level. I am looking to see whether maybe the low of the day has not yet been made
  • #98,674
  • May 21, 2009 4:57am May 21, 2009 4:57am
Quoting Atlast
I don't know at this stage best level. I am looking to see whether maybe the low of the day has not yet been made
Putting in a few short scalps off the 1.38074. 10 SL & 20 PT.
  • #98,675
  • May 21, 2009 4:59am May 21, 2009 4:59am
Quoting Atlast
I don't know at this stage best level. I am looking to see whether maybe the low of the day has not yet been made

I deleted my order .

doesn't look it reach it now.

waiting for another chance
I SEE YOU !!
  • #98,676
  • May 21, 2009 5:03am May 21, 2009 5:03am
I'm flat. Not sure what this thing's doing. The equities and futures are down yet this pair hasn't tanked...
"The markets are the greatest chess match ever played."
  • #98,677
  • May 21, 2009 5:04am May 21, 2009 5:04am
could it be that USD is totally losing it? with or without equities correlation?
  • #98,678
  • Edited 5:12am May 21, 2009 5:06am | Edited 5:12am
Exited. +20 on that short.


Predicted 1 hour high: 1.3820
Predicted 1 hour low : 1.3777

Sorry. These are 10 minutes old. I need twenty hands!
  • #98,679
  • May 21, 2009 5:08am May 21, 2009 5:08am
Still sitting in a vague weak, kinda uptrend, longs on pull backs people!!

With huge caution and tight SL's with all your fingers and toes crossed
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #98,680
  • May 21, 2009 5:09am May 21, 2009 5:09am
Ooh it went down . back with my pending long
I SEE YOU !!
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