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  • #98,241
  • May 20, 2009 11:38am May 20, 2009 11:38am
Quoting bagoomba
Would you mind walking me through your logic on that? Why 3738, and why a 15 pip stoploss?

I'm a pattern guy and right now I've got nothing, so I'm curious what you're seeing.
He thinks it'll retrace about 50%.
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  • #98,242
  • May 20, 2009 11:38am May 20, 2009 11:38am
Quoting klinckphilip
Me too I dont see any lower than 44
44 didn't exactly show any fortitude on the way up.
  • #98,243
  • May 20, 2009 11:39am May 20, 2009 11:39am
Quoting behzadov
well,
my sell trigger has been activated now. Im in short position now.

That genuinely makes me feel a little better.
  • #98,244
  • May 20, 2009 11:40am May 20, 2009 11:40am
Its pretty easy really, there is a Weekly top at 1.3738 and if you draw a trendline on the 15 min chart, you can see the impass and since it is a valid support, you can take a trade with a very acceptable stoploss of 15 pips and your target is 60. Good R & R. If it stops me, no prob because its only .001 of a percent of my profits for the week.

Quoting bagoomba
Would you mind walking me through your logic on that? Why 3738, and why a 15 pip stoploss?

I'm a pattern guy and right now I've got nothing, so I'm curious what you're seeing.
  • #98,245
  • May 20, 2009 11:41am May 20, 2009 11:41am
Quoting notch
44 didn't exactly show any fortitude on the way up.

I am more baseing it on where the 100 sma will meet our current price action
  • #98,246
  • May 20, 2009 11:43am May 20, 2009 11:43am
Quoting klinckphilip
I am more baseing it on where the 100 sma will meet our current price action

Understood. Thanks
  • #98,247
  • May 20, 2009 11:44am May 20, 2009 11:44am
SL moved to BE+10 (1.3772)
  • #98,248
  • May 20, 2009 11:47am May 20, 2009 11:47am
Quoting Atlast
SL moved to BE+10 (1.3772)
are you short?
  • #98,249
  • May 20, 2009 11:47am May 20, 2009 11:47am
Quoting notch
That genuinely makes me feel a little better.
But I still think price can go a little higher and then the main downward will start.

Anyway, I'm in. if this signal faild for sure next one is the right one.
  • #98,250
  • May 20, 2009 11:47am May 20, 2009 11:47am
Quoting notch
Understood. Thanks
I entered at 58 to start building in my longs for this last leg down BUT got out cause I dont think this is our upswing so 7pip on that one. I think it will go alittle deeper especially before the 2pm news.

Usually pulls back againsed itself for a good move when fomc comes out.
  • #98,251
  • May 20, 2009 11:49am May 20, 2009 11:49am
We have an important news in 70 minutes. I feel that can be the start of a new Bearish wave.
  • #98,252
  • May 20, 2009 11:49am May 20, 2009 11:49am
Quoting FXexpress
Its pretty easy really, there is a Weekly top at 1.3738 and if you draw a trendline on the 15 min chart, you can see the impass and since it is a valid support, you can take a trade with a very acceptable stoploss of 15 pips and your target is 60. Good R & R. If it stops me, no prob because its only .001 of a percent of my profits for the week.
OK, I understand your thinking. But I would have expected resistance at that point on the way up if it was support on the way down. Or are you simply thinking that the intersection of those two lines makes a convenient target?

Thanks for the help!
  • #98,253
  • May 20, 2009 11:51am May 20, 2009 11:51am
Quoting behzadov
We have an important news in 70 minutes. I feel that can be the start of a new Bearish wave.

If I'm not at least 30 pips up by 15 minutes before the news then I'll go flat then wait for the next entry signal.

Did it complete a Wave 1 *1.618 = top of Wave 5
wave 3 * 0.618 = top of wave 5

move?
  • #98,254
  • May 20, 2009 11:54am May 20, 2009 11:54am
Resistance is broken all the time in the market. Look at the Weekly. Its easy to see this MASSIVE LEVEL OF S & R
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  • #98,255
  • May 20, 2009 11:55am May 20, 2009 11:55am
The key is, will the price close above it on the Daily.
  • #98,256
  • May 20, 2009 11:55am May 20, 2009 11:55am
Quoting megabuck
are you short?
Yes, but as yet it wouldn't give the 1.3748 TP
  • #98,257
  • May 20, 2009 11:57am May 20, 2009 11:57am
I am back , and I don't see any changes except moving down 30 pips in 3 hours


sounds like better be off the market
I SEE YOU !!
  • #98,258
  • May 20, 2009 11:57am May 20, 2009 11:57am
Quoting notch
If I'm not at least 30 pips up by 15 minutes before the news then I'll go flat then wait for the next entry signal.

Did it complete a Wave 1 *1.618 = top of Wave 5
wave 3 * 0.618 = top of wave 5

move?
I am not sure if the wave 5 is finished, for sure we are in wave 5 of 5. and I feel it is possible to be in wave 3 of 5 of 5. that means this is the final retracement if it is a retracement!

or maybe it is the start of wave A or 1.

The best thing to do in this situation is to wait. even if this is start of new downward wave you will be able to enter at the start of wave 3 of 1 or A that has the main profit of this wave.

I myself prefer to be in the market even if my stop less get touched, max -50 pips and that will be ok with me.

about the targets of wave 5, just the start of closter has got touched (127) and thats why im not very sure about the end of this wave it can be go a little higher max 100 pips ( top of wave 5 on 161). What I can surley say is that the Bearish market will start very soon and it is powwerfull especially in wave 3 of 1 or A.
  • #98,259
  • May 20, 2009 11:58am May 20, 2009 11:58am
Originally Posted by Forexnewgirl http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Short 1.3793, stops 15 pips.

I looking to take 1/4 for 30 pips.
  • #98,260
  • May 20, 2009 11:58am May 20, 2009 11:58am
I opened a short at 3787 and chomped the bit as it slowly gave me profit and then rush up to negate it. I finally took profit for 32 pips and am glad as it ran up again shortly after. All my stochs from 4hrs and down say mad retrace is in order but daily stoch is overbought, just turned back long and with room to run. At this point another push up wouldn't surprise me but the recent top smacked the trendline leading up coinciding with the daily stochs cycle up from the bottom. Kind of tells me it could be toast with the possiblity of a spike to or through the high after the trendline rises up more after the close of the daily candle today. I would look for shorting spots if that happened.

I am looking for shorts now instead of longs and grumbling about how I can't hedge anymore. It was beautiful the way I'd be able to lock in profits and protect against retrace action that is now a lost stategy for me. I don't like having to close perfect opens to lock in profit and hope to get a good spot if I want to rejoin.
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