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EURUSD

  • #97,261
  • May 18, 2009 1:15pm May 18, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting The Fool
If the money flow in the global forex market is (supposedly) so much larger than the same in the equity markets, why does the E/U closely so correlate with the S&P?
is best explain that i am read on euro and stocks

http://veritefx.com/veritefx_blog/20...update-37.html
  • #97,262
  • May 18, 2009 1:27pm May 18, 2009 1:27pm
The release of German GDP on Friday, which showed a contraction of -3.8% q/q, took the wind out of the EUR and the “Green Shoots” theory. Pundits over the weekend, such as Times columnist Anatole Kaletsky, described the data as "arguably the most catastrophic economic statistics produced by any official institution in the capitalist world since 1945". We see such comments as overdone, but it does highlight the fact that a near term recovery is not just around the corner as many had hoped and the ECB needs to step up their efforts in supporting the Eurozone economy. While some optimist economists took the number as a signal German has hit the bottom, it also suggests that 2009 growth estimates are over optimistic. Participants should expect that the current forecast have overshot current conditions and should expect some level of correction.In other news, GM has reportedly sent letters to 1100 dealers telling them to shut their doors permanently. Just another signal that suggests the automaker will end up in chapter 11 and add to the worries over the US unemployment rate. There are auxiliary signals of profit taking in the market this morning, after stocks closed in negative territory again on Friday and Asian stocks followed suit this morning. On a final note the SNB has yet to comment or take credit (in our view) for Friday massive rally in EURCHF. The JPY has been the primary recipient of the decline in risk appetite. Both EURJPY and AUDJPY have sent out bearish engulfing signals and are looking to test trendline support at 127.35 and 69.60. While today is very light on economic data, in days to come we will see an increasing emphasis on data releases. Markets remain uncertain about the economic future and brunt by false data breakouts; we should expect increased volatility around data.EurUsd Market consolidates after broad moves on Friday which saw the greenback gain against the Euro as risk aversion creeps back into play. Initial support (today’s lows) at 1.3426 allows for further weakness towards 1.3245, via 1.3343. On the upside a retracement to the 38.20% level at 1.3498 is still possible. A firm push above this level sets the tone for a constructive bull towards 1.3550 (neckline mid point) and 1.3669.
Resistance and Support:
EURUSD
1.3669
1.3550
1.3498
1.3460
1.3426
1.3370
1.3343

Trade Well !
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  • #97,263
  • May 18, 2009 1:34pm May 18, 2009 1:34pm
MuddBugg,

Merci mon ami.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #97,264
  • May 18, 2009 1:53pm May 18, 2009 1:53pm
Price went almost to the level called out in this post and petered out at the 50 % Fib and my stops are right where I said they would be just above it. Only news will send it higher. This same thing happened last week only to see a plunge. Price could possibly go to 3570 area which is the 61. Fib level, but with no news to push it, I seriously doubt it. Look for a plunge short soon. Wait for an aggressive move below the 100 SMA before jumping in.

Quoting FXexpress
Gonna work a bit, be back later. I have a pending short at 1.3550 with my stop above the 100 SMA on the 15 Min chart. Since the SMA is slightly below the 1.3600 level, I will go above this level with my stop at 1.3610.

MK
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  • #97,265
  • May 18, 2009 1:57pm May 18, 2009 1:57pm
I sure hope you are the original poster of this clip from ACM:http://www.ac-markets.com/forex-news...orex-news.aspx because generally when you are cutting and pasting entire news articles with no credit to the original source that is called plagiarism...

Quoting Hasnaa
[i][font=Times New Roman][size=3][color=purple]The release of German GDP on Friday, which showed a contraction of -3.8% q/q, took the wind out of the EUR and the “Green Shoots” theory. Pundits over the weekend, such as Times columnist Anatole Kaletsky, described the data as "arguably the most catastrophic economic statistics produced by any official institution in the capitalist world since 1945". We see such comments as overdone, but it does highlight the fact that a near term recovery is not just around the corner as many had hoped and the ECB...
  • #97,266
  • May 18, 2009 2:07pm May 18, 2009 2:07pm
Want to keep in mind this ascending triangle / DT on the weekly. Eventually I can see the "X" hit.

MK
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  • #97,267
  • May 18, 2009 3:06pm May 18, 2009 3:06pm
Quoting GrnEydGuy
I sure hope you are the original poster of this clip from ACM:http://www.ac-markets.com/forex-news...orex-news.aspx because generally when you are cutting and pasting entire news articles with no credit to the original source that is called plagiarism...
Good point. And another one is - in forex Friday's news on Monday are not even "yesterday's news"... What is the point of posting it here except confusing other traders?
  • #97,268
  • May 18, 2009 3:23pm May 18, 2009 3:23pm
well from a personal and macro view I see the dollar devaluing from here out. Im not sure if the euro will with it at the same rate. I am in the home building industry and we are starting to see an increase in our sales month over month. Plus our government is spending money as fast as they can. And the interest rates are as low as they could ever be set a zero or near zero. So from my point of view the upside for the eur/usd is the play to make long term. Therefor I wait untill it corrects to the downside and look for good long entrys.

Not any correction but nice big ones. This is not a real double top. It looks the sh*t but I think it has been manufactured by the big boys to shake things up. No reason for it not to go higher.
  • #97,269
  • May 18, 2009 3:31pm May 18, 2009 3:31pm
AUD/USD Entry:
http://www.algforex.com/images/stori...0518aud_1_.wmv
I do just teaching.
  • #97,270
  • May 18, 2009 3:42pm May 18, 2009 3:42pm
I haven't posted here for a while but this is going to be really interesting.. I mean IF this double top doesn't hold and we get breakout north instead.

1.373 is the level to watch very carefully.
  • #97,271
  • Edited 4:03pm May 18, 2009 3:44pm | Edited 4:03pm
Quoting ak4x
...Potential retrace to either the green line a'rd 3510ish or the red line a'rd 3540/50...
Target hit finally, altho I thought I was gonna die of old age first.

Stopped out of the first two longs for 8 pips total but later got a nice reentry at 3437 and TP at 3537 for an even 100 pips..

Currently nursing a couple shorts on GU and geppy from what I hope are some current highs, if my timing don't stink...
FUBAR...
  • #97,272
  • May 18, 2009 3:45pm May 18, 2009 3:45pm
Quoting mikkom
...1.373 is the level to watch very carefully.
Hey mikkom, long time no see... lots of eyeballs on this silly thing right now for sure.
FUBAR...
  • #97,273
  • May 18, 2009 3:49pm May 18, 2009 3:49pm
And........(my two cents, not worth much now-days in the USA) Watch the daily, this could also be forming a inverted H&S, getting ready to run for it.

fxst
  • #97,274
  • May 18, 2009 3:59pm May 18, 2009 3:59pm
Quoting mikkom
I haven't posted here for a while but this is going to be really interesting.. I mean IF this double top doesn't hold and we get breakout north instead.

1.373 is the level to watch very carefully.
You are right and if it pops through the double top the upside will be strong and fast so hold on to your socks. I am in at 3533 and 3529 so even if it makes it to the double top I am excited.
  • #97,275
  • May 18, 2009 4:03pm May 18, 2009 4:03pm
Quoting klinckphilip
You are right and if it pops through the double top the upside will be strong and fast so hold on to your socks. I am in at 3533 and 3529 so even if it makes it to the double top I am excited.

although 3530 is very possible before we go higher.
  • #97,276
  • May 18, 2009 4:12pm May 18, 2009 4:12pm
Quoting fxstman
And........(my two cents, not worth much now-days in the USA) Watch the daily, this could also be forming a inverted H&S, getting ready to run for it.

fxst

What is an inverted H&S? I'm still learning....what effect would that have on our existing trading conditions?
  • #97,277
  • May 18, 2009 4:19pm May 18, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting pippenn
What is an inverted H&S? I'm still learning....what effect would that have on our existing trading conditions?
OK! I think I found an example of the inverted chart that makes sense to me. Based upon our current uptrend we could continue to move up?
  • #97,278
  • May 18, 2009 4:37pm May 18, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting pippenn
OK! I think I found an example of the inverted chart that makes sense to me. Based upon our current uptrend we could continue to move up?
Yes, It is a head and shoulders pattern turned upside down. Also known as the ghost pattern. You can google it. If your still learning (we all are, all the time. thats the forex.) then it will help to search and learn chart patterns.

good luck

fxst
  • #97,279
  • May 18, 2009 4:41pm May 18, 2009 4:41pm
Quoting pippenn
OK! I think I found an example of the inverted chart that makes sense to me. Based upon our current uptrend we could continue to move up?
No guarantees, EURO movement has nothing to do head and shoulders. I think down by wednesday
  • #97,280
  • May 18, 2009 4:48pm May 18, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting FXexpress
Price went almost to the level called out in this post and petered out at the 50 % Fib and my stops are right where I said they would be just above it. Only news will send it higher. This same thing happened last week only to see a plunge. Price could possibly go to 3570 area which is the 61. Fib level, but with no news to push it, I seriously doubt it. Look for a plunge short soon. Wait for an aggressive move below the 100 SMA before jumping in.
This played out perfectly.
I just opened shorts @ 1.3540, 1.3548 and 1.3562.
First target 1.3430, second target 1.3300

Shamu
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