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  • #96,941
  • May 16, 2009 3:39pm May 16, 2009 3:39pm
You always look at the immediate chart just above the one you are trading and maybe even one more. Just remember, if they are contrary to eachother you may not be in the trade very long. Ok, another way to look at it. Start at the 15 min chart and observe the price and the 100 SMA. Move to the 30, then the 1 hr etc......... You will notice that the 1 Hr has closed below the 100 SMA, however, the 4 Hr it is 170 pips topside. Instantly you get a long term target, the 4 hr 100 SMA at 1.3313, which happens to be the 50 % Fib level from the 4 Hr move up starting back on March 22. Now I don't want to confuse you, but on Friday and Sunday night I trade only the 15 Min timeframe which would take me out to the 1 hr for trend and that is Bearish. The 4 hr as I said is Up so the trend may only be short lived and that would be long term to the 1.3313 level. Now thats not to say this won't retrace a few times on the way down at these Fib levels I drew earlier.

Now, you can look at this another way. Say you want to trade the 4 hr timeframe. you would wait for an entry and the perfect entry would be a bounce at the 100 SMA with the stop just beyond. When I see the opportunity I will let you know so you can see what I mean. Notice how this trendline coinsides with the 100 SMA and the 50 % Fib level. A great place to look for a bounce for some heavy pips to the high side and a perfect place to use the headfake filter I outlined earlier. It's funny how all these things fit together like a puzzle.

MK



Quoting notch
I just had an epithany.

FXexpress, really all your saying is trade in the direction of the prevailing trend and set your stop-loss at the point at which the trend has change direction, right? Obviously, I'm ignoring PT.
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  • #96,942
  • May 16, 2009 3:41pm May 16, 2009 3:41pm
I dont quite understand what you are saying.

MK
Quoting SunTrader
Did I miss where you said you base your trades and not just stop losses off the 100SMA. Not a big deal though.

100 SMA on 15 min equals 25 hours.

Thursday's chart would have had a couple of head fakes, what then?
  • #96,943
  • May 16, 2009 3:42pm May 16, 2009 3:42pm
I see, yes there were a couple of headfakes, however, the PA still moved far enough to get profit. When the price was above the 100 SMA I was flat and out.

MK

Quoting FXexpress
I dont quite understand what you are saying.

MK
  • #96,944
  • May 16, 2009 3:47pm May 16, 2009 3:47pm
See post #96896 ole buddy..... I got to go to work for a little while. See ya all later.

MK


Quoting SunTrader
Did I miss where you said you base your trades and not just stop losses off the 100SMA. Not a big deal though.

100 SMA on 15 min equals 25 hours.

Thursday's chart would have had a couple of head fakes, what then?
  • #96,945
  • May 16, 2009 3:52pm May 16, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting FXexpress
You always look at the immediate chart just above the one you are trading and maybe even one more. Just remember, if they are contrary to eachother you may not be in the trade very long. Ok, another way to look at it. Start at the 15 min chart and observe the price and the 100 SMA. Move to the 30, then the 1 hr etc......... You will
MK

Thanks. Anyway, I'm off. Seeya when the market opens.
  • #96,946
  • Edited 4:08pm May 16, 2009 4:03pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting notch
.05 to .1 percent


Is that .5% to 1%?

Can you write a little more about your style of entries?
No it is .05 to .1 percent. But as trades go against me, it gets better and better and may reach 1:5 risk/reward with x% risk on equity (Not inserting a figure, afraid that newbies would try to follow) . It is a sort of martingale (please don't think I am crazy), but within a range of strong support/resistance.

For example for Euro/USD my range would be 1.000 to 2.000. I would lose 100% of my investment if it goes from 1.000 to 2.000 IN A SINGLE MOVE i.e. without a decent retrace. I would go against PA. Every time. If it goes up, I would short it, if it goes down, I would long it. Woule keep on doing this, until I am in profit. If it goes in my direction, I would be satisfied with .05% gain. If it goes against me, I would take revenge from the market and would seek .1%, if market does not give me my .1% I would make it pay .5%, if it still refuses me to pay, I would insist on 1%. So on and so forth.

On friday it paid me 5.45% because it refused to pay .05% for my honest day's work on Monday.

You may call me crazy, but this is what works for me. Market works for me, I don't work for market.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,947
  • May 16, 2009 4:26pm May 16, 2009 4:26pm
Quoting Chicky
No it is .05 to .1 percent. But as trades go against me, it gets better and better and may reach 1:5 risk/reward with x% risk on equity (Not inserting a figure, afraid that newbies would try to follow) . It is a sort of martingale (please don't think I am crazy), but within a range of strong support/resistance.

For example for Euro/USD my range would be 1.000 to 2.000. I would lose 100% of my investment if it goes from 1.000 to 2.000 IN A SINGLE MOVE i.e. without a decent retrace. I would go against PA. Every time. If it goes up, I would...
Hi Chicky,

This is very interesting. I never heard of this style of trading. You wrote earlier that you trade off daily. Do you look for your entries on 4h? Do you trade with stop losses or without?
  • #96,948
  • May 16, 2009 4:38pm May 16, 2009 4:38pm
Well, no, I don't really mean that. You not a sucka if you use a stop loss. To each his own and good luck all around.

But somewhere in the "They out to get me! It's a conspiracy!" part of my mind I assume that these forums are densely populated by employees and otherwise paid agents of the forex brokerages who consistently pepper their trading discussions with the words "stop loss" in order to reinforce and perpetuate the use thereof in the trading practices of the gullible masses. The stop losses, when executed, are undeniably a source of massive income for the dealers.

I don't use stop losses at all. The best insurance against loss is an over-capitalized account. We are not trading penny stock here where the price is liable to go to zero.

Scale positions relative to account equity such that no margin call can occur. OK, so your TA was dead wrong and price is moving against you. You can close the trade with a loss or you can wait for the price to come back your way. I have spent a lot of time watching the price action on all tf of EU and other pairs, and of related futures contracts, and I have noticed this: the price goes up and down. Up and Down. Up and Down.

As long as you don't enter long at the tippy top of a trend (or short the other way) I daresay you could enter trades at random and make alot of money. Don't be too greedy, use a pretty tight TP (say 20 pips) and I bet you could do this successfully most days.

I might try this when my account is bigger. I expect it to have doubled in the coming week - my third of live trading.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #96,949
  • Edited 4:40pm May 16, 2009 4:39pm | Edited 4:40pm
Quoting cammomile
Hi Chicky,

This is very interesting. I never heard of this style of trading. You wrote earlier that you trade off daily. Do you look for your entries on 4h? Do you trade with stop losses or without?
Cammomile, I cannot even think of trading without a stop loss. However, my stop loss would be very far away. For example if I short Euro/USD now, my stop loss would be 1.42xx or if I go long it would be 1.30xx.

No I only trade daily (serious trading) and 1H for testing trades. 1H also helps me judge any change in longer term trends.

As I mentioned earlier in a couple of posts, I extensively work on risk assessement before jumping in. That would include calculate my maximum risk, its probability of occurance, if it fails what would be my next move, if next move fails what would be my third move, how would I manage my money in this process, which account with what balance to use, etc, etc. Deliberately using the word "jumping" and not "entering" because I use a long series of trades to enter - 10 to 20.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,950
  • May 16, 2009 4:59pm May 16, 2009 4:59pm
Quoting Chicky
No it is .05 to .1 percent. But as trades go against me, it gets better and better and may reach 1:5 risk/reward with x% risk on equity (Not inserting a figure, afraid that newbies would try to follow) . It is a sort of martingale (please don't think I am crazy), but within a range of strong support/resistance.

For example for Euro/USD my range would be 1.000 to 2.000. I would lose 100% of my investment if it goes from 1.000 to 2.000 IN A SINGLE MOVE i.e. without a decent retrace. I would go against PA. Every time. If it goes up, I would short...

All I care about is the bottom line
  • #96,951
  • Edited 5:05pm May 16, 2009 5:05pm | Edited 5:05pm
Quoting pqt

All I care about is the bottom line
For few days, weeks or trades you may have a figure as a bottom line. For doing it continously, the bottom wouldn't need a line - Just one digit "0" will be enough. Don't forget it is zero sum game. Its the market volatility now a days that makes it work for the time being.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,952
  • May 16, 2009 5:23pm May 16, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting Chicky
For few days, weeks or trades you may have a figure as a bottom line. For doing it continously, the bottom wouldn't need a line - Just one digit "0" will be enough. Don't forget it is zero sum game. Its the market volatility now a days that makes it work for the time being.
Live by the sword, die by the sword, that's my motto!...
  • #96,953
  • May 16, 2009 5:30pm May 16, 2009 5:30pm
Keep 'em sharp, pqt.

Mine, in this room anyway, is "Beat The Dealer" - I have it printed out large and taped to the wall above the trading station.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #96,954
  • Edited 6:03pm May 16, 2009 5:31pm | Edited 6:03pm
Quoting pqt
Live by the sword, die by the sword, that's my motto!...
Pqt, There are several systems, but each of them work in particular environment. I can only follow trend, if there is a trend. After August 7 and 8, there is absolute uncertainty. Market doesn't know where to go. It goes up then down, then up then down. Therefore, the only workable system is that goes with this situation. This system would have been a complete failure before July 2007. For Euro, if one was using this system at the time it broke 1.5000 down, would have been a killer. But workable for a range within 1.2500-1.4000. This system will again be of no use, once market takes a definite direction. Then trend will be a friend again. I don't want to die for my system or any system

ps. My system works better in this environment.
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1242488755
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,955
  • May 16, 2009 6:04pm May 16, 2009 6:04pm
Quoting Chicky
Pqt, There are several systems, but each of them work in particular environment. I can only follow trend, if there is a trend. After August 7 and 8, there is absolute uncertainty. Market doesn't know where to go. It goes up then down, then up then down. Therefore, the only workable system is that goes with this situation. This system would have been a complete failure before July 2007. For Euro, if one was using this system at the time it broke 1.5000 down, would have been a killer. But workable for a range within 1.2500-1.4000. This system will...
Chicky, I have typed out the answer to your post but FF crashed on me... You have already answered my questions about your system in this post. Thanks!

I have one more question - how do you calculate the max risk? Is it a fixed % based on the size of your account or do you take into account other factors relating to a particular position? Which ones?
  • #96,956
  • Edited 7:19pm May 16, 2009 6:20pm | Edited 7:19pm
Quoting cammomile
Chicky, I have typed out the answer to your post but FF crashed on me... You have already answered my questions about your system in this post. Thanks!

I have one more question - how do you calculate the max risk? Is it a fixed % based on the size of your account or do you take into account other factors relating to a particular position?
It is simple. I decide how much I want to lose. Let's say 30%. Now I would divide it into 10 portions i.e. 3% on each trade. Now I would decide where would be my sl if I open at the market now. Let's say If I sell Euro/USD now, would put my sl at 1.4200+15=1.4215. I would go to lot calculator and find out how many lots I should sell that would give me a loss of 3% on my equity. I would sell those lots. If PA moves in my favor to give .05 or .1% profit, I would thank the market and would take it. However, if PA moves against me, lets say to 1.3700 I would open another short at 1.3700 and sl for this would also be 1.4215. I would sell as many lots for this second positon that would give me another loss of 3%. My total risk exposure for both these positions would be 6% now. I will keep on adding 3% to my risk on every move up. However, would open more positons let's say five of them between 1.4000 and 1.42000. Because I know that there is high probability of a strong bounce down from this level. As time passes, I would set my TP to realitic level. The idea is that I don't want my SL to be hit but my TP to be. Therefore I would be little conservative in taking profits. I normally set my tp between 40% to 60% fib - From where I started to where pa would be at that time. If it goes all the way up making me open 7 or 8 positions, I may take profit at 30% or even 25% fib retracement.

Please note that I keep my money in five accounts and take 30% risk on one account. Therefore my total risk is 30%/5. If this trade fails, I would recalculate. I would just forget about the amount of loss. Would never try to recover earlier loss. I will re-begin from where I would be after this trade.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #96,957
  • May 16, 2009 6:22pm May 16, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting Chicky
Pqt, There are several systems, but each of them work in particular environment. I can only follow trend, if there is a trend. After August 7 and 8, there is absolute uncertainty. Market doesn't know where to go. It goes up then down, then up then down. Therefore, the only workable system is that goes with this situation. This system would have been a complete failure before July 2007. For Euro, if one was using this system at the time it broke 1.5000 down, would have been a killer. But workable for a range within 1.2500-1.4000. This system will...
Tell me about it!
UJ is another example. For quite a while b4 the latest trend down, it was quite a mess to the point I've given it up, preferring to trade the crosses instead.
  • #96,958
  • May 16, 2009 6:31pm May 16, 2009 6:31pm
Quoting Chicky
However, if PA moves against me, lets say to 1.3700 I will open another long at 1.3700 and sl for this would also be 1.4215. I woudl buy as many lots for this second positon that would give me another loss of 3%. My total risk exposure for both these positions would be 6% now. I will keep on adding 3% to my risk on every move up. However, will open more positons let's say five of them between 1.4000 and 1.42000. Because I know that there is high probability of a strong bounce down from this level.
.
What do you do if there is no strong bounce down? You blow 9% 12% 15% of your acoount?
  • #96,959
  • May 16, 2009 6:46pm May 16, 2009 6:46pm
Quoting Chicky
It is simple. I decide how much I want to lose. Let's say 30%. Now I will divide it into 10 portions i.e. 3% on each trade. Now I will decide where would be my sl if I open at the market now. Let's say If I buy Euro/USD now, will put my sl at 1.4200+15=1.4215. I will go to lot calculator and will find out how many lots I should buy that would give me a loss of 3% on my equity. I will buy those lots. If PA moves in my favor to give .05 or .1% profit, I would thank the market and will take it. However, if PA moves against me, lets say to 1.3700 I...
Thank you for sharing. I get it now.
  • #96,960
  • Edited 7:05pm May 16, 2009 6:48pm | Edited 7:05pm
Quoting fxtrader29
What do you do if there is no strong bounce down? You blow 9% 12% 15% of your acoount?


Prevention is better than cure. I would only decide a move to play if it satisfies my these two indicators:

1. Feel Good Indicator (economic situation)
2. Feel Not So Good Indicator (economic situation)

I will only enter if I believe that market has over reacted to any of these indicators and sooner or later will correct itself. For example, equity drive last week, to me, was not equally supported by economic conditions. I shorted it all the way up to 1.3700 believing that it would come back to 1.35xx or if not to 1.355x.

If my prevention does not work out well. I would accept the results but continue believing in my system.

Ps. Don't forget that I rarely get a chance of opening all my positions. Many time it is 1/10 to 5/10 that could be opened before a break in my favor.
The Thief of Wall Street
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