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Safe Hedging System - Daily Swap

  • #21
  • Apr 14, 2007 12:11pm Apr 14, 2007 12:11pm
Ok, makes sense as long as you have a broker who will allow you to do it... and your position sizes are properly correlated with each other for pip movement.

I like the idea of arbing capital gains should the positions give you positive NAV.

It would be interesting to consider the use of options in this strategy. I haven't really had the time to think it through, but a person might be able to be long a put in the high yielding currencies of gbp and usd. This would give you a hedge, WITHOUT paying interest... but obviously you pay the premium for the put. It would drastically increase your daily swap!! AND it gives potential for capital gains appreciation in the spot forex. The premiums on the options would determine if this is viable. (I'll try to sit down and figure this out over the weekend).

Good Trades,
Yukoner
  • #22
  • Apr 14, 2007 12:36pm Apr 14, 2007 12:36pm
I have a question about the payout of the swaps. I thought they are only paid (or subtracted) if you actually close your positions. So they are accumulating, just like your P/L, but you don't get the results until you close. If that's the case than you would have to close every now and then to benefit from the interest payments.

I believe that OANDA works differently in that they pay interest even if positions are open. I thinks that's why they now have a rule that limits the length of open positions.
  • #23
  • Apr 14, 2007 2:07pm Apr 14, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting zuijlen
I have a question about the payout of the swaps. I thought they are only paid (or subtracted) if you actually close your positions. So they are accumulating, just like your P/L, but you don't get the results until you close. If that's the case than you would have to close every now and then to benefit from the interest payments.

I believe that OANDA works differently in that they pay interest even if positions are open. I thinks that's why they now have a rule that limits the length of open positions.
Swaps are paid or charged to your account on a daily basis as long as you keep your positions open overnight.
Regards
  • #24
  • Apr 14, 2007 2:18pm Apr 14, 2007 2:18pm
Quoting zuijlen
I have a question about the payout of the swaps. I thought they are only paid (or subtracted) if you actually close your positions. So they are accumulating, just like your P/L, but you don't get the results until you close. If that's the case than you would have to close every now and then to benefit from the interest payments.

I believe that OANDA works differently in that they pay interest even if positions are open. I thinks that's why they now have a rule that limits the length of open positions.

You have account balance and account equity. Your equity value will actually increase while your account balance is the same. What really matter is your equity. So if you have enough equity to cover the margin, you should be able to withdraw funds, even if your account is low. But if you want to see your account reflect your equity value, then you can close your positions and see it. I for one, have done withdrawals and there is no problem whatsoever, and my equity accurately reflects my swap balance.
  • #25
  • Apr 14, 2007 4:27pm Apr 14, 2007 4:27pm
Quoting neo1001
Hello Guys:

I wanted to share this strategy that I have been trading on my live account for about couple months. It has been very profitable and safe from all of the market movement and allows you to make daily swaps without having 2 broker accounts of risk a major drawdown. Anyone can start with this and gradually increase their position.

Basically you will set the following order and they have to be in the same ratio and placed within seconds of each other for maximize stability. I usually do this at 4:55 PM EST just before the swap being calculated:

1 LOT BUY (+)GBP/JPY(-)
1 LOT SELL (-)CHF/JPY(+)
1 LOT SELL (-)GBP/USD(+)
1 LOT SELL (-)USD/CHF(+)

Now this is sort like a combination hedge but using 4 pairs. If you separate each pair, you will see that you are SELLING and BUYNG All 4 currencies at the same time, see the (+) and (-) that I placed Next each currency? You will see that I am buying GBP, Selling GBP, Buying CHF, Selling CHF, etc... This will net you about $11.00 USD in swap per day if using FXDD. The margin requirement for a 200:1 account is about $2500, so u need to have a $3500 account to do this. You must get a 200:1 or 400:1 leverage, so make sure you ask for it.

Now $11.00 per day is about $330 per month, which is like 10% return on your $3500.00. Combining with Compounding you positions, you are looking at 200% return in a year. (every $350 gain, start with a new set of hedge using 0.1 Lot sizes)

Once you reach about 20 standard lots, you are making $220 per day, and that should be a pretty comfortable income, not even counting the positive gains on the GBP/JPY pair.

Some of you might ask about the drawdown on this, I have seem a maximum of 15% drawdown. The market might be a little more unforgiving at first, but once you start to spread out your position, like entering a new mini-lot set everyday for 10 days straight, you are actually minimizing your exposure. Always use discretion to do this and once you are in profit with your GBP/JPY pair for about 100 PIPS, put your stop/loss at 1 PIP profit, only use stop with GBP/JPY pair, and if you are not at your computer all the time, setup the EMAIL function in MT4 and send yourself a text message telling you that you got stopped out on the GBP/JPY. If the market moves against you with the GBP/JPY, you will get stopped out at 1 PIP, but your CHF/JPY, USD/CHF, and GBP/USD short orders will be profitable.

Another thing to watch out for when doing this trade is to do it on Wednesday, which is triple interest day. So it will pretty much cover your spread and give you a positive swap the very first day. And it might take up to 4 days to see your account being positive, but again, your initial entry is the most important entry.
Thx for sharing ur strategy, its worth trying but i just visited fxdd.com and it doesnt look like they pay swap on any pairs check it out http://fxdd.com/rolloverrates.html
  • #26
  • Apr 14, 2007 4:56pm Apr 14, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting goodness
Thx for sharing ur strategy, its worth trying but i just visited fxdd.com and it doesnt look like they pay swap on any pairs check it out http://fxdd.com/rolloverrates.html

They sure don't on the weekend. Check tomorrow.
  • #27
  • Apr 14, 2007 5:12pm Apr 14, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting neo1001
1 LOT BUY (+)GBP/JPY(-)
1 LOT SELL (-)CHF/JPY(+)
1 LOT SELL (-)GBP/USD(+)
1 LOT SELL (-)USD/CHF(+)

This will net you about $11.00 USD in swap per day if using FXDD.
Using FXDD Demo account swap rates, these will net $8.95 swaps daily.


Interesting. From where I look at it, you are:
GBP Neutral (0 GBP position)
CHF Short -100K CHF
USD Long +98K (or 0.98 standard lots)
JPY Short - 1.947M JPY

Which effectively means at current closing prices after Friday13th:
Long USDCHF 0.82 Lots = +$5.30 swap
Long USDJPY 0.163 Lots = +$1.913 swap
Total : $7.21
The discrepancy between $7.21 and 8.95 is from the lower swaps FXDD give on USDCHF ($6.46) and USDJPY ($11.74) whereas other brokers give as much as $10 for USDCHF and $13 for USDJPY...

So neo, once you see a big USD sell off vs CHF and JPY, you will get hurt in pippage.
  • #28
  • Apr 14, 2007 5:25pm Apr 14, 2007 5:25pm
Hi, Neo1001
Thank you for sharing your system
I would like to add a suggestion
I am demo trading GBP/USD and USD/JPY this is kind of a hedge system, the Ratio I do is 1 GBP/USD, 1.5 USD/JPY.
Then if GBP/USD drops 60 pips I buy 0.02 lot which is 1/50 of the original purchase and immediately set a take profit of 60 pips.
If GBP/USD gains 60 pips I close 0.02 of the original lot purchased and take that little profit.
I do the same with the USD/JPY so that way when one pair gains the other loose but then when the reverse comes I gain.
By trading 1/50 of the lots purchased does not offset the hedge too much. And increase profits considerably.
I was thinking if you apply this concept to your 4 pairs it would be twice profit from my 2 pair hedge system.
My suggestion is
GBP/JPY lots to trade 0.02 @ 100 pips
CHF/JPY lots to trade 0.02 @ 100 pips
GBP/USD lot to trade 0.02 @ 60 pips
USD/CHF lots to trade 0.02 @ 60 pips

I will personally demo this system because if it is working with 2 pairs I think it will work much better with 4 pairs.
  • #29
  • Apr 14, 2007 6:21pm Apr 14, 2007 6:21pm
Quoting Munizdivisas
Hi, Neo1001
Thank you for sharing your system
I would like to add a suggestion
I am demo trading GBP/USD and USD/JPY this is kind of a hedge system, the Ratio I do is 1 GBP/USD, 1.5 USD/JPY.
Then if GBP/USD drops 60 pips I buy 0.02 lot which is 1/50 of the original purchase and immediately set a take profit of 60 pips.
If GBP/USD gains 60 pips I close 0.02 of the original lot purchased and take that little profit.
I do the same with the USD/JPY so that way when one pair gains the other loose but then when the reverse comes I gain.
By trading 1/50 of the lots purchased does not offset the hedge too much. And increase profits considerably.
I was thinking if you apply this concept to your 4 pairs it would be twice profit from my 2 pair hedge system.
My suggestion is
GBP/JPY lots to trade 0.02 @ 100 pips
CHF/JPY lots to trade 0.02 @ 100 pips
GBP/USD lot to trade 0.02 @ 60 pips
USD/CHF lots to trade 0.02 @ 60 pips

I will personally demo this system because if it is working with 2 pairs I think it will work much better with 4 pairs.
when u buy 0.02 lots to take profits at 60pips where do u place ur stop or u dont put stop infact the same question goes to neo and u too......for the hedging strategy u really dont use any stop losses at least initially right??
  • #30
  • Apr 14, 2007 6:28pm Apr 14, 2007 6:28pm
Quoting howard
Swaps are paid or charged to your account on a daily basis as long as you keep your positions open overnight.
Don't forget kids, swap is paid triple on Wednesdays. The reason it's paid triple on Wednesdays is because even though it's a "spot" market, trades are declared to be settled up two days from their transaction date, and thusly you have to be able to cover the interest rates for the days of the weekend, and Wednesday is...two days after the weekend!

Ancient chinese secret...?
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
  • #31
  • Apr 14, 2007 7:33pm Apr 14, 2007 7:33pm
Quoting goodness
when u buy 0.02 lots to take profits at 60pips where do u place ur stop or u dont put stop infact the same question goes to neo and u too......for the hedging strategy u really dont use any stop losses at least initially right??
You don’t set stops, because some pair will be in profit and some will be losing so they balance each other, but you got to have enough money to cover any sell offs a good rule that I use is never use more than 5% margin with 1:400 leverage or 20% with 1:100
  • #32
  • Apr 14, 2007 7:37pm Apr 14, 2007 7:37pm
Quoting Munizdivisas
Hi, Neo1001
Thank you for sharing your system
I would like to add a suggestion
I am demo trading GBP/USD and USD/JPY this is kind of a hedge system, the Ratio I do is 1 GBP/USD, 1.5 USD/JPY.
Then if GBP/USD drops 60 pips I buy 0.02 lot which is 1/50 of the original purchase and immediately set a take profit of 60 pips.
If GBP/USD gains 60 pips I close 0.02 of the original lot purchased and take that little profit.
I do the same with the USD/JPY so that way when one pair gains the other loose but then when the reverse comes I gain.
By trading 1/50 of the lots purchased does not offset the hedge too much. And increase profits considerably.
I was thinking if you apply this concept to your 4 pairs it would be twice profit from my 2 pair hedge system.
My suggestion is
GBP/JPY lots to trade 0.02 @ 100 pips
CHF/JPY lots to trade 0.02 @ 100 pips
GBP/USD lot to trade 0.02 @ 60 pips
USD/CHF lots to trade 0.02 @ 60 pips

I will personally demo this system because if it is working with 2 pairs I think it will work much better with 4 pairs.

Hi there Muniz

I am new to hedging and don't quite understand fully your system here. Do you place a buy and sell for each pair? you mentioned 1 lot to 1.5 lot. And what are the 100 pips, 60 pips you are talking about? I thought we are after the swap with neo's stratety, waht does these pips have to do with it? thanks for your help.
  • #33
  • Apr 14, 2007 8:09pm Apr 14, 2007 8:09pm
Quoting Munizdivisas
Hi, Neo1001
Thank you for sharing your system
I would like to add a suggestion
I am demo trading GBP/USD and USD/JPY this is kind of a hedge system, the Ratio I do is 1 GBP/USD, 1.5 USD/JPY.
Then if GBP/USD drops 60 pips I buy 0.02 lot which is 1/50 of the original purchase and immediately set a take profit of 60 pips.
If GBP/USD gains 60 pips I close 0.02 of the original lot purchased and take that little profit.
I do the same with the USD/JPY so that way when one pair gains the other loose but then when the reverse comes I gain.
By trading 1/50 of the lots purchased does not offset the hedge too much. And increase profits considerably.
I was thinking if you apply this concept to your 4 pairs it would be twice profit from my 2 pair hedge system.
My suggestion is
GBP/JPY lots to trade 0.02 @ 100 pips
CHF/JPY lots to trade 0.02 @ 100 pips
GBP/USD lot to trade 0.02 @ 60 pips
USD/CHF lots to trade 0.02 @ 60 pips

I will personally demo this system because if it is working with 2 pairs I think it will work much better with 4 pairs.

I am demo trading GBP/USD and USD/JPY this is kind of a hedge system, the Ratio I do is 1 GBP/USD, 1.5 USD/JPY.

I understand from the underlined text above that you go Long GBPUSD 1 Lot and Long USDJPY 1.5 lots.

1.0 Lot GBPUSD = +100KGBP, -198.66KUSD
1.5 Lot USDJPY = +150K USD, -17.886M JPY

This equate to almost going Long 0.8 Lot GBPJPY.

You all should understand the underlying fact on your hedges. This hedging works because GBPJPY is uptrending after the Feb crash. There is no MAGIC why it works. And Munizdivisas suggestion is plain trading GBPJPY.

And neo's suggestion is just the same its purely long USDCHF, long USDJPY.

If you want to trade Munizdivisas system, I suggest you to open position when GBPJPY dips. And to trade Neo's system, I suggest you to open position when USDCHF and USDJPY dips.

Safe as you might think these hedging pairs appear but these all have drawdowns if you look at the underlining fact. So Hedge carefully. It is not SAFE as it seems. Freedomrocks has been a long running success; alot of traders went it with big money. Yet they all lost huge money when the Feb CHF, JPY rally last late February - why? because their underlying fact in the system was based on bullish EURCHF and GBPCHF.

It is so easy to get Novices attracted to systems when "SAFE" is attached. How come Long GBPJPY is not called SAFE when in fact, for 2 years, its nothing but uphill climb?
  • #34
  • Apr 14, 2007 8:52pm Apr 14, 2007 8:52pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Using FXDD Demo account swap rates, these will net $8.95 swaps daily.


Interesting. From where I look at it, you are:
GBP Neutral (0 GBP position)
CHF Short -100K CHF
USD Long +98K (or 0.98 standard lots)
JPY Short - 1.947M JPY

Which effectively means at current closing prices after Friday13th:
Long USDCHF 0.82 Lots = +$5.30 swap
Long USDJPY 0.163 Lots = +$1.913 swap
Total : $7.21
The discrepancy between $7.21 and 8.95 is from the lower swaps FXDD give on USDCHF ($6.46) and USDJPY ($11.74) whereas other brokers give as much as $10 for USDCHF and $13 for USDJPY...

So neo, once you see a big USD sell off vs CHF and JPY, you will get hurt in pippage.
I don't quite follow the 0.82 LOT and 0.163 LOT reference.
I know that I am doing 100K LOT on 4 Pairs.

I am LONG only on GBP/JPY
I am short on the other 3 Pairs. CHF/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Well, are you logging into FXDD and see what Swap rate they are posting on their platform or are you actually following my strategy and see the 7.21 swap?

I am in the trade live and I am telling you, its $11.30 per day.

On a USD Selloff you are going to have USD/CHF going down, where your USD/CHF Short position will be gaining considerably.
Your GBP/USD position will gain as well, which will go against you since you are going short, but your GBP/JPY will get a boost because of the stronger GBP.
Your CHF/JPY will probably also go up, but this pair is so much more timid compared to GBP/JPY, the movement on GBP/JPY will probably cover all your losses then some.

Go ahead and try my hedge for a couple weeks, then let me know what you think. Please, do it on a DEMO account, as I would advice anyone to start out with.
  • #35
  • Apr 14, 2007 9:00pm Apr 14, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting Munizdivisas
You don’t set stops, because some pair will be in profit and some will be losing so they balance each other, but you got to have enough money to cover any sell offs a good rule that I use is never use more than 5% margin with 1:400 leverage or 20% with 1:100

u dont place stop losses even for the additional 0.02lots u add later for 80 pips profit taking, wat if it goes against u like 100 or more
also, did u mean 20% for 400:1 and 5% for 1:100 leverage??
  • #36
  • Apr 14, 2007 9:01pm Apr 14, 2007 9:01pm
Quoting goodness
when u buy 0.02 lots to take profits at 60pips where do u place ur stop or u dont put stop infact the same question goes to neo and u too......for the hedging strategy u really dont use any stop losses at least initially right??

You don't use a stop/loss because you are hedging.
Many people might have concerns on the movement that think that it might wipe you out.
But remember that the market is purely supply and demand. It will always workout.

The biggest fear of this strategy is with GBP/JPY. But understanding the idea behind carry trades, you will see that it is very unlikely for this pair to drop, since that just does not make sense. There might be a short market sentiment to drive the pair down, but it always comes back due to the major difference on Interest Rate.

If only GBP/JPY is going down, and you are seeing the GBP is strong against all other currencies, such as GBP/USD. Then you can definitely bet that the market will come back and consolidate its losses. Just remember, many Japanese big names were secretly going long on the GBP/JPY during the recent sell off that took more than 1600 PIPS. But then again, you might ask, what make this system so interesting? It is because the fact that you are really dealing with the Major Currencies in the world, and like the law of Relativity, that you cannot destroy energy, but simple transfer the energy to another medium. Same with the Forex. When money changes medium, it will tend to balance itself out, there might be times of unbalanced moments, but it will always work out. By Hedging 4 Pairs, you are looking at spreading your risk. That is what this is about.
  • #37
  • Apr 14, 2007 9:08pm Apr 14, 2007 9:08pm
Quoting neo1001
You don't use a stop/loss because you are hedging.
Many people might have concerns on the movement that think that it might wipe you out.
But remember that the market is purely supply and demand. It will always workout.

The biggest fear of this strategy is with GBP/JPY. But understanding the idea behind carry trades, you will see that it is very unlikely for this pair to drop, since that just does not make sense. There might be a short market sentiment to drive the pair down, but it always comes back due to the major difference on Interest Rate.

If only GBP/JPY is going down, and you are seeing the GBP is strong against all other currencies, such as GBP/USD. Then you can definitely bet that the market will come back and consolidate its losses. Just remember, many Japanese big names were secretly going long on the GBP/JPY during the recent sell off that took more than 1600 PIPS. But then again, you might ask, what make this system so interesting? It is because the fact that you are really dealing with the Major Currencies in the world, and like the law of Relativity, that you cannot destroy energy, but simple transfer the energy to another medium. Same with the Forex. When money changes medium, it will tend to balance itself out, there might be times of unbalanced moments, but it will always work out. By Hedging 4 Pairs, you are looking at spreading your risk. That is what this is about.

I understand u neo,
i was actually referring to the gentmen/lady who said he buys extra 0.02 lots for 60 pips whenerever a pair goes down 60 pips.....my question is for d single extra pair of 0.02 lots how do u place stop loss for that or u dont and y?
  • #38
  • Apr 14, 2007 9:18pm Apr 14, 2007 9:18pm
Quoting BurgerKing
I am demo trading GBP/USD and USD/JPY this is kind of a hedge system, the Ratio I do is 1 GBP/USD, 1.5 USD/JPY.

I understand from the underlined text above that you go Long GBPUSD 1 Lot and Long USDJPY 1.5 lots.

1.0 Lot GBPUSD = +100KGBP, -198.66KUSD
1.5 Lot USDJPY = +150K USD, -17.886M JPY

This equate to almost going Long 0.8 Lot GBPJPY.

You all should understand the underlying fact on your hedges. This hedging works because GBPJPY is uptrending after the Feb crash. There is no MAGIC why it works. And Munizdivisas suggestion is plain trading GBPJPY.

And neo's suggestion is just the same its purely long USDCHF, long USDJPY.

If you want to trade Munizdivisas system, I suggest you to open position when GBPJPY dips. And to trade Neo's system, I suggest you to open position when USDCHF and USDJPY dips.

Safe as you might think these hedging pairs appear but these all have drawdowns if you look at the underlining fact. So Hedge carefully. It is not SAFE as it seems. Freedomrocks has been a long running success; alot of traders went it with big money. Yet they all lost huge money when the Feb CHF, JPY rally last late February - why? because their underlying fact in the system was based on bullish EURCHF and GBPCHF.

It is so easy to get Novices attracted to systems when "SAFE" is attached. How come Long GBPJPY is not called SAFE when in fact, for 2 years, its nothing but uphill climb?

Well said. I have to say that nothing is "SAFE" in forex.
However, if you enter your position right, and you lock in your 1 PIP as I suggested, you are pretty safe, even considering the Feb. Selloff on the GBP/JPY. Is just how you do this.

Remember, giving the same signal, same strategy, same broker, same account size, and even using identical PC's and Internet Connection, 2 people might take the same trade and one will come out winning while the other one come out losing.
  • #39
  • Apr 14, 2007 9:31pm Apr 14, 2007 9:31pm
Quoting goodness
I understand u neo,
i was actually referring to the gentmen/lady who said he buys extra 0.02 lots for 60 pips whenerever a pair goes down 60 pips.....my question is for d single extra pair of 0.02 lots how do u place stop loss for that or u dont and y?
You don’t place stop/lost you just wait until the market corrects and take profit, it might take some time but it will correct.
What I was try to show neo is that it might be possible get extra profits by buying small lots (Which yes is the FreedomRocks concept)
  • #40
  • Edited 10:02pm Apr 14, 2007 9:45pm | Edited 10:02pm
Correction to my earlier post, i thought it was +GBPJPY, -CHFJPY, -GBPUSD and -USDJPY, when it was -USDCHF!

I appologize for the error! My mistake back there.. you can verify that my number back there were referring indeed to short USDJPY..


Quoting neo1001
I don't quite follow the 0.82 LOT and 0.163 LOT reference.
I know that I am doing 100K LOT on 4 Pairs.

I am LONG only on GBP/JPY
I am short on the other 3 Pairs. CHF/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
These 4 pairs can be broken down into the bare numbers:
Long GBPJPY means Buy 100K GBP and Sell 23.68M JPY
Short CHFJPY means Sell 100K CHF and Buy 9.814M JPY
Short GBPUSD means Sell 100K GBP and Buy 198.66K USD
Short USDCHF means sell 100K USD and Buy 121.46K CHF

According to the above, you are:
NET zero GBP as you bought and sold the same amount of GBP in two different pairs.
NET BUY 98.66K USD (from short GBPUSD and Short USDCHF)
NET BUY 21.46K CHF (from short USDCHF and short CHFJPY)
NET SELL 13.866M JPY (from long GBPJPY and short CHFJPY)

to have net short 13.866M JPY, you have to buy 1.16 Lots USDJPY
to have net long 21.46K CHF, you have to sell 0.177 lots USDCHF

Therefore:
Long GBPJPY
Short GBPUSD
Short CHFJPY
Short USDCHF

is equivalently:
Long 1.16 Lots USDJPY
Short 0.177 Lots USDCHF

With these knowledge, you can now plug your SWAP rates for the LIVE FXDD account and see you are getting more than NET $10 daily swaps on your original positions.
1.16 Long USDJPY alone would now net you $12.76, while the miniscule short 0.177 USDCHF might deduct just 3 quarters a most so you will still be $12 in swaps based on this broken down lottage. I beleive traders like mrMikal, smjones, merlin will agree to these blue highlighted bare lottage numbers.

So to take on Neo's hedge, position yourself when USDJPY dips and when USDCHF rises.

neo, to confirm my 1.16 Long USDJPy and short 0.177 USDCHF vs your 4 pair positions, can you post your sample positions and I will give you the corresponding pip profits using my USDJPY + USDCHF pairs.

Quote
Go ahead and try my hedge for a couple weeks, then let me know what you think. Please, do it on a DEMO account, as I would advice anyone to start out with.
No thanks. I'd rather go LONG USDJPY when it drops below 115 and per every 100 pips below but not now when it is sitting 119+.
Trading USDJPY is far more dangerous than it seems. Im currently hedging EUR, GBP, CHF, USD, NZD instead on live account (10 standard lots variants) - not the freedom rock scenario though but something similar. My biggest winner is NZD as shown. Of course I also have big loosers like GBPUSD as I shorted it below 1.94.
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