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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #12,481
  • May 15, 2009 8:10am May 15, 2009 8:10am
Could anybody tell me what was so bad for $ in the released news , so it lost 50 pips in less 10 min?

I know that we can see bigger moves, but I assumed released data is "good for currency".
  • #12,482
  • May 15, 2009 8:13am May 15, 2009 8:13am
Quoting daffy
Ken, could you post a chart showing the pins you are referring to? I don't see them on my chart.

Here you go..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1a Misc EJ.JPG Size: 130 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #12,483
  • May 15, 2009 8:14am May 15, 2009 8:14am
Good morning mates.
Waiting my seat for this last trading day.... how do you do?
"Even A Thousand Mile Journey Begins with the First Step"
  • #12,484
  • May 15, 2009 8:19am May 15, 2009 8:19am
Quoting Komissar
Could anybody tell me what was so bad for $ in the released news , so it lost 50 pips in less 10 min?

I know that we can see bigger moves, but I assumed released data is "good for currency".

I don't understand very much about news trading I do know that with the economic crisis the news has moved the market in starnge ways... The usd/jpy did go up. It has something to do with risk. When we have good news people are willing to have money in the market. But if there scared they pull it out and put it under their matress...
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #12,485
  • May 15, 2009 8:21am May 15, 2009 8:21am
Quoting EzRidr62
Yep, that is the software I use. You sound familiar with it. When compared to the custom information available on a candle chart with tools, it is not match. But then, there is always a market for those types of people who do not wish to know (or cannot comprehend) anything more than the most simplistic data and programs... An ass for every seat, as it were.

Quick question: you mentioned price level at 516x as a possible reversal area for a long... looking at my charts, I do see the two support areas of price for it, and I also see that the 62...
I have a crystal ball! I called the 516x area for a long, which I did take, because of the prior days opening price wast 5155. I didn't call it lower because yesterdays daily candle was a bullish candle. Also, I just booked 100 pips on that move and the rest is now at +25.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #12,486
  • May 15, 2009 8:24am May 15, 2009 8:24am
It can be an opportunity on mistress retrace 35/50 MA and @50 fibo retrace... lets see
Attached Image
"Even A Thousand Mile Journey Begins with the First Step"
  • #12,487
  • May 15, 2009 8:24am May 15, 2009 8:24am
Quoting eohater
I have a crystal ball! I called the 516x area for a long, which I did take, because of the prior days opening price wast 5155. I didn't call it lower because yesterdays daily candle was a bullish candle. Also, I just booked 100 pips on that move and the rest is now at +25.

You are the man. Thanks eo: every time you explain your entries etc. we all learn a little somehting to keep for ourselves.
  • #12,488
  • May 15, 2009 8:24am May 15, 2009 8:24am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Here you go..
Gotcha, I thought you were talking about in the last hour or so ago.

I was already short based on how the H4 was printing out, and I was expecting price to go below 130 and test 129.

The first pin, I'd have been wary of because of the upper wick. That shows rejection of higher prices. If you ever peek into Hussin's daily candlestick thread, he has talked about such a pattern being the fx equivalent of a bearish on/in neck pattern, which is a continuation pattern.

The second one, well, I think that's just bad luck. Stop orders got hit, pushed price back up, but momemtum was strong enough to send prices lower again. If I had not already been in a trade, or not expecting prices to go lower, I would probably have taken the trade.

On pins, I like to see some confluence, or occurring at a level where I would expect there to be resistance, and ideally, I like them to close with the same colour in which I am planning to place a trade. So in the two examples you've given, I'd have liked both to close green, and with no upper wick.
  • #12,489
  • May 15, 2009 8:26am May 15, 2009 8:26am
Quoting analizer
It can be an opportunity on mistress retrace 35/50 MA and @50 fibo retrace... lets see

Yeah BABY !! The good ole 50/50 trade... if it closes above the 50 ma. will be a 35/50 reversal trade also..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #12,490
  • May 15, 2009 8:26am May 15, 2009 8:26am
Quoting eohater
I have a crystal ball! I called the 516x area for a long, which I did take, because of the prior days opening price wast 5155. I didn't call it lower because yesterdays daily candle was a bullish candle. Also, I just booked 100 pips on that move and the rest is now at +25.
Good morning EO
Outstanding ... Would you mind to share your magic ball please??
"Even A Thousand Mile Journey Begins with the First Step"
  • #12,491
  • May 15, 2009 8:30am May 15, 2009 8:30am
Quoting analizer
Good morning EO
Outstanding ... Would you mind to share your magic ball please??
Morning bro!

I'm trying to share it with you guys.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #12,492
  • May 15, 2009 8:34am May 15, 2009 8:34am
Quoting eohater
I have a crystal ball!
I hope you didn't steal that from Sofia!
  • #12,493
  • May 15, 2009 8:36am May 15, 2009 8:36am
Quoting daffy
Gotcha, I thought you were talking about in the last hour or so ago.

I was already short based on how the H4 was printing out, and I was expecting price to go below 130 and test 129.

The first pin, I'd have been wary of because of the upper wick. That shows rejection of higher prices. If you ever peek into Hussin's daily candlestick thread, he has talked about such a pattern being the fx equivalent of a bearish on/in neck pattern, which is a continuation pattern.

The second one, well, I think that's just bad luck. Stop orders got hit, pushed...
I have been lurking around in Hussin's Thread . But not to show my ineptness. But I don't get a lot out of it.. I have a hard time interputing his explanations but I will continue to lurk. I have been in other threads where it has taken a bit of time to grasp the ideas put forth.

Thanks for your views and input. I think on the both of those. . It never went up. If I had waited ,once it broke the wick of the trigger could have called it a bad signal. NOTE TO SELF : Enter the trade once it turns in the right direction !!!

Thanks Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #12,494
  • May 15, 2009 8:37am May 15, 2009 8:37am
Quoting analizer
It can be an opportunity on mistress retrace 35/50 MA and @50 fibo retrace... lets see
I was going to say careful on this trade, as the dow is about to open. The $ seems to have an inverse correlation with the dow, and when the dow goes up, the $ goes down, and the $ seems to have an inverse correlation with the main pairs, so when the $ goes down, EJ and GU go up.
  • #12,495
  • May 15, 2009 8:37am May 15, 2009 8:37am
Quoting koorb
You are the man. Thanks eo: every time you explain your entries etc. we all learn a little somehting to keep for ourselves.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else! I hope you got a in on the move. My next TP will be 5350. There will be sellers at 5316 area. Becareful going long at that price, watch for her to pullback and use your ma's on the 15m for entry. She might pullback to the 21ema on the 15m for a nice entry back north.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #12,496
  • May 15, 2009 8:38am May 15, 2009 8:38am
Quoting daffy

I hope you didn't steal that from Sofia!
No bro! She still has hers!
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #12,497
  • May 15, 2009 8:40am May 15, 2009 8:40am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
I have been lurking around in Hussin's Thread . But not to show my ineptness. But I don't get a lot out of it.. I have a hard time interputing his explanations but I will continue to lurk. I have been in other threads where it has taken a bit of time to grasp the ideas put forth.

Thanks for your views and input. I think on the both of those. . It never went up. If I had waited ,once it broke the wick of the trigger could have called it a bad signal. NOTE TO SELF : Enter the trade once it turns in the right direction !!!

Thanks...
That's what james16 suggests in his PA thread, that you enter a couple of pips below the low of the pin.
  • #12,498
  • May 15, 2009 8:42am May 15, 2009 8:42am
Quoting eohater
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else! I hope you got a in on the move. My next TP will be 5350. There will be sellers at 5316 area. Becareful going long at that price, watch for her to pullback and use your ma's on the 15m for entry. She might pullback to the 21ema on the 15m for a nice entry back north.
That's the setup I would love to see....

HOLLA
  • #12,499
  • May 15, 2009 8:43am May 15, 2009 8:43am
Quoting KENNETH lEE
I have been lurking around in Hussin's Thread . But not to show my ineptness. But I don't get a lot out of it.. I have a hard time interputing his explanations but I will continue to lurk. I have been in other threads where it has taken a bit of time to grasp the ideas put forth.
Hussin will give you a whole new understanding of candles well beyond hammers and pins. It's an amazing force and addition to your tradin but takes a good deal of time to incorporate. Also he focuses largely on LFX so you might need to add the Liteforex programme to your trading (I find it helpful on larger time frames, anything beyond 1h, mainly daily though). It's worth the effort. Hopefully he returns soon because he's dearly missed!
  • #12,500
  • May 15, 2009 8:45am May 15, 2009 8:45am
New shorts on EJ from the 35/50 cross and reverse need to be careful.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
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