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  • #96,621
  • Edited 6:15am May 15, 2009 6:13am | Edited 6:15am
Quoting TheFisherman
If you can, put all the following on your monitor:

SPX, FT100 or any EU equity futures, GOLD, OIL & EU. What you will notice is the same PA, only that the latest SPX, OIL & EU equities is just a late reaction tu EU PA not a signal.

Fishy, you will need to elaborate on the above because I don't trade the correlations my mind is far too simple for that. I trade based on the setup of a particular instrument, well that isn't absolutely correct, if I see all the main indices trending in the same direction then it gives me more confidence to hold a given position. In this case, I will hold the FT100 short for a little longer.
  • #96,622
  • Edited 6:22am May 15, 2009 6:18am | Edited 6:22am
Quoting TheFisherman
I have SPX (they call it US500) and something similar to DJEU50 - they call it EU50.

Here is the big picture:

Thanks for that but does that chart configuration hold up to long term scrutiny, that is, if I pick any given day in any given week will I see similar price action across all those instruments? I think the answer is no therefore it would never be a robust tool for me to base decisions on.

Edit: In fact if those correlations held up overtime all I would need to do is feed them into a NeuralNet and then scratch my arse while watching the money roll in. If only it was that easy.
  • #96,623
  • May 15, 2009 6:18am May 15, 2009 6:18am
my broker is alpari

actually i have few currencies on my menu I dont know why

does any one knows how to show them all ?
I SEE YOU !!
  • #96,624
  • May 15, 2009 6:19am May 15, 2009 6:19am
EUR-USD 4 H up dated Chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #96,625
  • May 15, 2009 6:31am May 15, 2009 6:31am
Quoting notch
Thanks for that but does that chart configuration hold up to long term scrutiny, that is, if I pick any given day in any given week will I see similar price action across all those instruments? I think the answer is no therefore it would never be a robust tool for me to base decisions on.

Edit: In fact if those correlations held up overtime all I would need to do is feed them into a NeuralNet and then scratch my arse while watching the money roll in. If only it was that easy.
Here you go. H4 and Daily Overview. Deleted the previous post since the image was not cut properly.
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  • #96,626
  • May 15, 2009 6:31am May 15, 2009 6:31am
Quoting dbfusion
my broker is alpari
actually i have few currencies on my menu I dont know why
does any one knows how to show them all ?
Do the Right-click in Market Watch window, then select "Show All" in the context menu.
  • #96,627
  • Edited 6:37am May 15, 2009 6:32am | Edited 6:37am
[quote=TheFisherman;2736831]EU started the down move hours ago. Only
DJEU seemed to break up. SPX and OIL in range.
OIL broke down hard.
DJEU reversed and headed down.
SPX eventually got in line with all.
quote]


Yes but on any given day the above may not hold true. You can prove this quickly by reviewing some historic charts. If trading was as simple as selling the FT100 because the EURUSD is down x amount of pips then either we'd all be 'muy richo' or basic arbitrage would eradicate the anomoly from the system.

But maybe I have misunderstood you.

Anyway, I'm flat with a respectable tally of 70+ combined pips in the bag.


DW Trend confirmation
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  • #96,628
  • May 15, 2009 6:33am May 15, 2009 6:33am
Quoting dbfusion
my broker is alpari

actually i have few currencies on my menu I dont know why

does any one knows how to show them all ?
right click on the market watch window and choose "show all".
  • #96,629
  • May 15, 2009 6:39am May 15, 2009 6:39am
thanx for the help guys , I did as you said but it still shows me only 10 currencies.
I SEE YOU !!
  • #96,630
  • May 15, 2009 6:40am May 15, 2009 6:40am
i'm not an expert on this, but isn't a reverse cup & handle formed on the H1 chart ?

Plus it's getting near the support line on the H4 (red line)

Doesn't this translate an UP move ?
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  • #96,631
  • May 15, 2009 6:40am May 15, 2009 6:40am
does alpari deal with 10 pairs only ?
I SEE YOU !!
  • #96,632
  • May 15, 2009 6:40am May 15, 2009 6:40am
Quoting notch

Yes but on any given day the above may not hold true. You can prove this quickly by review some historic charts. If trading was as simple as selling the FT100 because the EURUSD is down x amount of pip then either we'd all be 'muy richo' or basic arbitrage would eradicate the anomly from the system.
True. It will not hold. What one would do is long EUR and short the equity to get better chance of gains. If the EUR was the one out of line than sooner or later either the EUR or the equity would go into line. Only here it's also a matter of math and pippage and never really had time to go deep into this. notice on the daily chart that the EUR april nutcase of 600+ pips up was just out of line. If you take EUR chart and put it over all the others you'd have shorted there with confidence wouldn't you?

Let's watch this situation developp: Short Gold, Long EUR. Paper trading.
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  • #96,633
  • May 15, 2009 6:50am May 15, 2009 6:50am
Quoting dbfusion
does alpari deal with 10 pairs only ?
im with alpari too. my screen shows a lot more then 10 pairs... it also shows gold and silver. im with alpari uk.
  • #96,634
  • May 15, 2009 6:50am May 15, 2009 6:50am
Quoting TheFisherman
True. It will not hold. What one would do is long EUR and short the equity to get better chance of gains. If the EUR was the one out of line than sooner or later either the EUR or the equity would go into line. Only here it's also a matter of math and pippage and never really had time to go deep into this. notice on the daily chart that the EUR april nutcase of 600+ pips up was just out of line. If you take EUR chart and put it over all the others you'd have shorted there with confidence wouldn't you?

Let's watch this situation developp: Short...
Well no I wouldn't have shorted with confidence because there are simply to many relationships & variables at work for me to manage.

The reason why I ignore intermarket analysis is because for a long time I actually tried to model their relative impact on certain instruments using NN & AI. It really wasn't a profitable endeavor. The only correlation of note was the one between ft100 >oil>s&p500 and this didn't generate any fruit unless the time frames were at least of the weekly interval and then the returns were nothing to get excited about. When I actually compressed this analysis dow to the daily TF the slippage issues wiped out all but a negligible amount of profit and the transaction costs took care of the rest. I won't even mention what occurred on doing this on the intraday basis but it wasn't pretty. Don't get me wrong, sometimes you'd get a good trade but for the most part it was a completely ugly affair.
  • #96,635
  • May 15, 2009 6:54am May 15, 2009 6:54am
Quoting cammomile
im with alpari too. my screen shows a lot more then 10 pairs... it also shows gold and silver. im with alpari uk.

maybe because of account size .
I am with small amount of money there
I SEE YOU !!
  • #96,636
  • May 15, 2009 6:55am May 15, 2009 6:55am
Quoting notch
Well no I wouldn't have shorted with confidence because there are simply to many relationships & variables at work for me to manage.

The reason why I ignore intermarket analysis is because for a long time I actually tried to model their relative impact on certain instruments using NN & AI. It really wasn't a profitable endeavor. The only correlation of note was the one between ft100 >oil>s&p500 and this didn't generate any fruit unless the time frames were at least of the weekly interval and then the returns were nothing to get excited about....
Did you try a mathematical model that would take into account the overall equity/oil trend bias versus pip value and spread costs? This is what I had in mind but on small accounts it doesn't work cause it's difficult to correlate with your fixed lots orders something that looks like this:

SPX - uptrend break up vs. EUR downtrend correction. The dephasing and amplitude of the movements might put you into negative pips when correlation is over. I agree that this might work over a period of days/weeks better and the % gains would be easily covered by intraday trading. Not to mention risks. I just noted that the SPX & EU equities down move were nothing more than a late reaction to EU move rather than a signal...
  • #96,637
  • May 15, 2009 6:56am May 15, 2009 6:56am
Quoting dbfusion
maybe because of account size .
I am with small amount of money there
i am on demo LOL

the platform is standard for all account types. give them a call. they are usually helpful.
  • #96,638
  • May 15, 2009 6:56am May 15, 2009 6:56am
i got 3543 as the stump to move for the bears then 3403 3304 3206..

bumps in the road 3583 71 35 19 3495 71 36 3392 66 44 14 3294 87 68 50 28 3197 82 67 58 17 05.. we just passed it as im typing 3540... bigger s/r 3204 3402 3524
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #96,639
  • May 15, 2009 6:57am May 15, 2009 6:57am
Price action on the 5 min chart is moving within a channel.
  • #96,640
  • Edited 7:06am May 15, 2009 6:59am | Edited 7:06am
Quoting TheFisherman
Did you try a mathematical model that would take into account the overall equity/oil trend bias versus pip value and spread costs? This is what I had in mind but on small accounts it doesn't work cause it's difficult to correlate with your fixed lots orders something that looks like this:

SPX - uptrend break up vs. EUR downtrend correction. The dephasing and amplitude of the movements might put you into negative pips when correlation is over. I agree that this might work over a period of days/weeks better and the % gains would be easily covered...

I tell you what, you preprocess the data and I'll feed it into one of my model and give you the results.

Or tell me how you'd like it preprocessing (Fast Fourier, Wavelets, Principal Component Analysis etc)
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