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  • #7,841
  • May 13, 2009 10:38am May 13, 2009 10:38am
Quoting SlideDog
a couple of superb setups today - that 1h gravestone IB on the USDJPY was a great one. I extended my risk slightly on that, 4% so a result.

Also, triple 1h IBs on the EURUSD - I felt that it was going to break hard one way or another when it did, but with possible whipsaw, so I cut risked only 2%.

as a total aside, I also took a bearish 1h IB on the FTSE today, applying the same trading rules, that's gone free ride!

so far, 1 losing trade this week, several freeride of which most are still open. a good week... I'm loving this system.
nicely done slidedog....
  • #7,842
  • May 13, 2009 3:13pm May 13, 2009 3:13pm
the profit of a good winning trade is really unbelievable..
I entered an IB on USD/JPY yesterday, had a stop loss of 23 pips, risked 3%
locked in half at 1:1 and had a freetrade, and now the trade is already
+200 pips. also entered twice again somewhere in the middle on 2 IB's.

200 pips doesn't sound like a lot, and it wouldn't be with a big stop loss,
but with the small risk of 23 pips, I already have 20% ROI. that's what some people aim for in one month!

great system
  • #7,843
  • May 14, 2009 12:20am May 14, 2009 12:20am
Quoting kimchikim
the profit of a good winning trade is really unbelievable..
I entered an IB on USD/JPY yesterday, had a stop loss of 23 pips, risked 3%
locked in half at 1:1 and had a freetrade, and now the trade is already
+200 pips. also entered twice again somewhere in the middle on 2 IB's.

200 pips doesn't sound like a lot, and it wouldn't be with a big stop loss,
but with the small risk of 23 pips, I already have 20% ROI. that's what some people aim for in one month!

great system
Absolutly and at 10/1 Risk/Reward you are laughing. There may be a small pull back after the moves from yesterday but with the USD/JPY breaking some big support in the 95.6 and also the up trendline, this could be the beginning of a down wave.

Great to see some postings on winners.

Take care
  • #7,844
  • May 14, 2009 2:46am May 14, 2009 2:46am
Quoting Porkpie
Many thanks. I noticed in a different thread that someone constructed an ea and the results over the long term were not favourable. Not sure what MM he was using to test it. However, as PC stated in the original thread, you do need to know a lot more about PA rather than using this method blindly. So I imagine confluence of other market variables have to be included without making the method too complicated (its simplicity is one of its benefits - especially with the mt4 alerts and being able to monitor many markets at once to alert you of a potential...
One of PC's posts (or it might have been TRT's) was that that this method doesn't lend itself to backtesting, which to my mind also rules out a fully automated EA - at best it is a 'have a look at the chart and see what looks like a worthwhile trade'.

As an example, the USDJPY 1-hour has an IB 2 hours ago. It didn't break on the shortside, but has formed a pin bar in the next candle. That says to me that the PA might continue to be downward. Since I'm already in this from a couple of days ago, it's a reasonable sign to increase my holding (having done so once already yesterday afteroon with another pin bar). If it doesn't work out, it slightly reduces some already great returns on that trade.
  • #7,845
  • May 14, 2009 2:57am May 14, 2009 2:57am
Quoting SlideDog
One of PC's posts (or it might have been TRT's) was that that this method doesn't lend itself to backtesting, which to my mind also rules out a fully automated EA - at best it is a 'have a look at the chart and see what looks like a worthwhile trade'.

As an example, the USDJPY 1-hour has an IB 2 hours ago. It didn't break on the shortside, but has formed a pin bar in the next candle. That says to me that the PA might continue to be downward. Since I'm already in this from a couple of days ago, it's a reasonable sign to increase my holding (having...
Also as has been said many times "NOT ALL IB'S ARE THE SAME"

A 1hr IB of 20 pips in a downward trend is more likely to produce a + trade than 100 pips IB in a ranging market, will backtesting realise this and not take the 100 pip trade?
  • #7,846
  • May 14, 2009 3:32am May 14, 2009 3:32am
Quoting kimchikim
the profit of a good winning trade is really unbelievable..
DIB's is just one good example of a low risk break out trade. There are lots of other strategies which use the same principle. Having identified the most powerful principle in trading (i.e. cutting losses and letting profits run) I explore other strategies. e.g. Bollinger squeeze, TL break outs, ema break outs, chart pattern break outs (eg double top). The list goes on. They are low risk strategies to enter the trend with low draw down. Here is the secret I have learned: If it ain't a break out, get out.
Gone to a better place
  • #7,847
  • May 14, 2009 3:39am May 14, 2009 3:39am
over the last three months how have you guys been getting on with theEUR/CHF. It seems to be the only loser in all the major currencies. The eur/jpy seems to be the best.
  • #7,848
  • May 14, 2009 4:07am May 14, 2009 4:07am
The other problem with back testing (more of the human nature than EA) is that as much as youd like to try, you will justify trades more favourably given that you know the big picture. Hindsight is a dangerous thing when we are looking for the pros of a trading system, especially when new traders first embark on it and are trying to prove to themselves, and others why, and only why it works.

It is easy to look back on history and circle all the favourable bars for your system and say that it works, however it is harder to acknowledge that over time a system may have massive periods of drawdown. Drawdown is a much harder prospect to live with that gaining profits. It is human nature for pain to outway pleasure when the end result becomes neutral.

For example, as a trader we pick a 50 pip winner which we lock in, then we loose it the next trade to a 50 pip looser. Whilst the end result is neutral, most feel disheartned by it. This is off the topic so im not going to elaborate further.

Back to backtesting. The reason we back test is to find a strategy that ultimately suits us. Unfortunatly in that quest we may, usually without realising, mask the results to null the pain and push the pleasure barrier until we say this system is for us.

What I am getting at here is simple. The only thing that really matters is the here and now. The trades we take today will define our accounts and will be the marks left for future traders to back test. No matter how in depth and good your backtesting, it is past and we cannot make money from that. We simply use that information to take opportunities to make money today and tomorrow.

Razor
  • #7,849
  • May 14, 2009 4:25am May 14, 2009 4:25am
Quoting Razor_trader
The other problem with back testing (more of the human nature than EA) is that as much as youd like to try, you will justify trades more favourably given that you know the big picture. Hindsight is a dangerous thing when we are looking for the pros of a trading system, especially when new traders first embark on it and are trying to prove to themselves, and others why, and only why it works.

It is easy to look back on history and circle all the favourable bars for your system and say that it works, however it is harder to acknowledge that over...
I hadn't considered this consciously as a bias, but I did it anyway in some of my testing - test the method on a market you don't know. Before I started looking at FX trading I didn't have a clue what the historic levels were, other than knowing that when I went to NY in late 2007 I could get $2 for £1, and a general feeling that for as long as I could remember I got about €1.40 for £1. So I did the manual step-through on charts on markets that I had no clue what the future performance was.

Some markets made slight losses, some broke even, some made gains. But applying some discretion is key - and at the risk of venturing off-topic, I'll take a non-dib setup if it looks good, whilst still applying the risk management and freeride rules, including on non-fx (such as yesterday's on the dow and ftse) if the setup looks good.

My live account is up 42% in six weeks. some weeks with slight losses, one week with a 25% gain! And always keeping it to 3% risk.
  • #7,850
  • May 14, 2009 11:54am May 14, 2009 11:54am
Quoting SlideDog
I hadn't considered this consciously as a bias, but I did it anyway in some of my testing - test the method on a market you don't know. Before I started looking at FX trading I didn't have a clue what the historic levels were, other than knowing that when I went to NY in late 2007 I could get $2 for £1, and a general feeling that for as long as I could remember I got about €1.40 for £1. So I did the manual step-through on charts on markets that I had no clue what the future performance was.

Some markets made slight losses, some broke even, some...
First off FANTASTIC RESULTS SO FAR .

Second I am starting to come around to looking also at a few other setups, not because I want to overtrade, but because I am starting to recognise some IBs as being a waste of time while others are really good setups. The other PA bar that I am looking at, and will eventually trade with the same confines, ie 1/1 Free rides and runs, is Pin Bars. Why? Quite simply because they can be the 1st bar of a new wave, especially off support/Resistance areas.

If the biggest thing I have learnt from this whole DIBS experience is to allow winners to run, then I have learnt the one thing that really free'd me from previous limited account growth. Whilst the results would not impress the bank manager (or my wife who laughs at the $$$) the % of account growth is the real factor. It is simple mathmatics from that point (provided the obvious emotional hurdle can be embraced) that 42% growth is relative to $1000 as it is to any figure that is larger. If you can get consistant account % growth, naturally that exquates to hard $$$$ but it can also be used when you decide to increase your trading capital.

Im so glad to see that there are some people who are enjoying some short term success. Now to continue, we dont know what is next but we can trade the way we do knowing that we are consistant within ourselves.

Take care friend
  • #7,851
  • May 14, 2009 4:30pm May 14, 2009 4:30pm
Thanks for all your comments. I am not a fan of EAs one bit. They are at a severe disadvantage compared to the trader that understands the underlying sentiment of the market (or at least, how to find it).

Trade on...
  • #7,852
  • May 15, 2009 1:58am May 15, 2009 1:58am
My word what a good hour this has been. 4h bearish pin IBs on GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP and EURUSD, all of which have moved straight out to free trade. Joy!
  • #7,853
  • May 15, 2009 2:18am May 15, 2009 2:18am
Quoting SlideDog
My word what a good hour this has been. 4h bearish pin IBs on GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP and EURUSD, all of which have moved straight out to free trade. Joy!
Would be nice to have your platform, all my IBs for the past 4hourly are slightly out. Most by about 7 pips or slightly more withe the EUR/JPY the worst at 12 pips lower than the previous candle. Ohwell back to the drawing board.

Good luck m8, you have made some great trades lately
  • #7,854
  • May 15, 2009 3:33am May 15, 2009 3:33am
Take position
Market moves in your favour to very close to free trade
Market retraces and knocks you out by one or two pips
Market reverses again and moves over what would have been your free trade position.

GRRRR.

That's trading I guess...
  • #7,855
  • May 15, 2009 3:44am May 15, 2009 3:44am
Quoting SlideDog
Take position
Market moves in your favour to very close to free trade
Market retraces and knocks you out by one or two pips
Market reverses again and moves over what would have been your free trade position.

GRRRR.

That's trading I guess...
Yep it happens from time to time, but in the end you made the right decision and traded the plan, not much more you can do without a crystal ball.
  • #7,856
  • May 15, 2009 4:15am May 15, 2009 4:15am
Quoting SlideDog
Take position
Market moves in your favour to very close to free trade
Market retraces and knocks you out by one or two pips
Market reverses again and moves over what would have been your free trade position.

GRRRR.

That's trading I guess...
Have an alert when it gets to near 1:1 then view this area as a zone.

Just beacuse you're target is 151.49 doesn't matter, if it fails break 1.5150 why not just buy it back at 151.53, 4 pips off a freebie's better than a loss.
  • #7,857
  • May 15, 2009 5:12am May 15, 2009 5:12am
Quoting SlideDog
My word what a good hour this has been. 4h bearish pin IBs on GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP and EURUSD, all of which have moved straight out to free trade. Joy!
Where do you see this morning pin Ibs on gbpusd ors usdjpy?
  • #7,858
  • May 15, 2009 5:43am May 15, 2009 5:43am
Quoting Pierre
Where do you see this morning pin Ibs on gbpusd ors usdjpy?
Being friday here, im having a beer and looking over this week. There we some good setups that I missed but to be honest there probably wasnt much with my trade plan that I could have taken. Most of the IBs, hourly and 4 hourly appear once the market has made a pullback and the candles closed in the wrong direction, meaning that I would have traded them the other way to the market. The smaller TF are having a great trend but all where nearing the opposite trend on the dailys which was also making me trade the candles the otherway. If I caught one on the daily then I could have rode out, however the markets continued to pull back.

Today only about 2 hours ago there was 1 on the USD/JPY that has now gone 1:1 but I was out getting beer for tonight and the weekend so i missed it, but not too sure what is going to happen with that one aswell because it has occured at the bottom of the drop.

The weekly chart paints the picture perfectly for the above pair, it is a solid bearish candle. So if you are short at the bottom, the next week when/if we have a pull back you could be out for nothing anyways. Ah who knows. For those who had a good week, well done. Next week is another week, lets hope there is more on the horizon. Sometimes its a patience game, what am I saying its always a patience game.

Take care and have a good weekend
  • #7,859
  • May 15, 2009 6:14am May 15, 2009 6:14am
Just discovered this thread and the more I think about DIBS the more sophisticated I realise it is.
Two questions if anyone would be good enough to help.
First
Is the IB considered defunct if it doesn't work first time ie if a trade is triggered then price goes against you and stops you out but then 'comes back'. would you take the trade again? Hope you get my meaning.
Second
I presume you guys live in the States. I live in the UK and it's 12 noon here. We are several hours ahead of you yet you are already getting the beers out. Sounds like heaven. Any room for one more?
  • #7,860
  • May 15, 2009 6:16am May 15, 2009 6:16am
Oops, just realised you live in OZ.
Cheers
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