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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #12,801
  • May 15, 2009 2:48am May 15, 2009 2:48am
Quoting tony_dtrader
I'm still holding the short, got a couple more sell trades. Looking for the 94.xx zone to close them
yes, i think also its possible to 94.77 or so, but for me its ok with 25+
  • #12,802
  • May 15, 2009 3:03am May 15, 2009 3:03am
Quoting SwissKinseb
yes, i think also its possible to 94.77 or so, but for me its ok with 25+
Yes 25pip+ per day is enough to become a forex tycoon!
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #12,803
  • May 15, 2009 3:10am May 15, 2009 3:10am
Quoting tony_dtrader
Yes 25pip+ per day is enough to become a forex tycoon!
no, i hold any other position at the moment, but is see not a big chance to go more down, that is why I bagged 25+, have a good trade, sorry for my bad english
  • #12,804
  • May 15, 2009 4:58am May 15, 2009 4:58am
I sold 40k @ 95.74 $20k @ 94.96. New SL @ 95.24.
I hope to keep this over the wknd.
I think Yen is on a mission to the 88 level. IMHO
I'm going to work it every chance I get.
Year of the Dragon Wise Choices-Good Fortune!
  • #12,805
  • May 15, 2009 12:08pm May 15, 2009 12:08pm
The monster tagged me with a tail. Still a good week b/c I've been with this move since the start.
I thought that the pair would retrace more by looking at the 4h on all the other Yen pairs. I was about to close it up when it suddenly broke thru consolidation. Thus, a gift.
Year of the Dragon Wise Choices-Good Fortune!
  • #12,806
  • May 15, 2009 7:18pm May 15, 2009 7:18pm
Had a fabulous Friday shorting the yen, took exit before the market ended. im very happy this week has been nothing but a joy ride
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #12,807
  • May 15, 2009 10:00pm May 15, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting fammira
cause the pair is extremely oversold and I see risk appetite back and equities up again
Are you kidding? This is a down trend. The market can stay oversold for a long time. An overbought condition is some thing to write home about.
  • #12,808
  • May 16, 2009 12:55am May 16, 2009 12:55am
Quoting lapidaanima
Are you kidding? This is a down trend. The market can stay oversold for a long time. An overbought condition is some thing to write home about.
no, CCI indicator in the oversold area often signal a potential reverse scenario

I am still long at 95,39 with a stop below 95,4
  • #12,809
  • Edited 3:17am May 16, 2009 3:05am | Edited 3:17am
Quoting fammira
no, CCI indicator in the oversold area often signal a potential reverse scenario

I am still long at 95,39 with a stop below 95,4
Id recommend that you add a 50 level in cci and wait for cci to go over that level to prevent fake reversals. Its very common in downtrend for bull traps from people trying to take counter trend trades. i say this because on Friday Asian session i went long just to get stop out on Frankfurt open, then i took double the position and shorted it for a wonderful gain.
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #12,810
  • May 16, 2009 10:12am May 16, 2009 10:12am
Quoting tony_dtrader
Id recommend that you add a 50 level in cci and wait for cci to go over that level to prevent fake reversals. Its very common in downtrend for bull traps from people trying to take counter trend trades. i say this because on Friday Asian session i went long just to get stop out on Frankfurt open, then i took double the position and shorted it for a wonderful gain.
thanks tony, I will keep it in mind
In fact you are right
Actually my ideas is based on oversold, but also on a feeling that bear market is about to end, maning to say traders should start covering their Yen longs, at least on a medium term basis

I really do not know what will happen next week, I have a feeling that market will go down before trying a new move up again, therefore USDJPY could keep moving towards 93-94.

But on the longer term I see 100 easier than 90....I am curious to have a look at the last COT though
  • #12,811
  • May 16, 2009 10:24am May 16, 2009 10:24am
Quoting fammira
thanks tony, I will keep it in mind
In fact you are right
Actually my ideas is based on oversold, but also on a feeling that bear market is about to end, maning to say traders should start covering their Yen longs, at least on a medium term basis

I really do not know what will happen next week, I have a feeling that market will go down before trying a new move up again, therefore USDJPY could keep moving towards 93-94.

But on the longer term I see 100 easier than 90....I am curious to have a look at the last COT though
I just follow what my chart setup tells me, if its sell i go short if its buy i go long.

Ultimately its the banks, institutions and big guys who are going to move the market, normal retail margin traders like us can only follow wherever the market decides to go
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #12,812
  • May 16, 2009 10:46am May 16, 2009 10:46am
Quoting tony_dtrader
I just follow what my chart setup tells me, if its sell i go short if its buy i go long.

Ultimately its the banks, institutions and big guys who are going to move the market, normal retail margin traders like us can only follow wherever the market decides to go
you right again, my bro

fx market is 1% feeling, 1% luck, 98% timing

btw the more I watch USDJPY chart, the more I see a bounce coming....
  • #12,813
  • May 17, 2009 8:41pm May 17, 2009 8:41pm
from the last COT (May 15th)

It is interesting that while all currencies besides the Sterling are favored over the USD by large speculators, the Dollar Index remains bullish. Smaller traders, who of late have been more accurate week to week, are long the NZD, AUD, CAD, and EUR against the Dollar while short the GBP, JPY, and CHF against the Dollar. Large specs have made a large change in their net position on the yen, causing them to change from a net short last week, to a net long this week (that is on the JPY/USD, so they are now short the USD/JPY). Please see the chart below for individual analysis and net positioning.

http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/M...-Analysis.aspx
  • #12,814
  • May 17, 2009 9:24pm May 17, 2009 9:24pm
short at 95.00 and on breakeven, hoping it to go to 94.40 to close
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #12,815
  • May 18, 2009 12:02am May 18, 2009 12:02am
10:30am JPY
Household Confidence
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...dar_detail.gif http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif32.4http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ol_refresh.gif 32.1 28.9

good news for yen
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #12,816
  • May 18, 2009 2:34am May 18, 2009 2:34am
hi all, this is my chart already gain pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forex.GIF Size: 13 KB


______________________

Gartley Patterns

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  • #12,817
  • May 18, 2009 3:24am May 18, 2009 3:24am
not really sure if its a true or fake london breakout. will wait n watch. my bias is still to short.... lets see
prepare for worst & expect the best
  • #12,818
  • May 18, 2009 3:32am May 18, 2009 3:32am
small short at 9542 based on previous resistance...maybe add a little more at around 9555 if it goes any higher
Fear's for the other guy
  • #12,819
  • May 18, 2009 4:28am May 18, 2009 4:28am
small loss..no worries...just waiting now to see how PA works out...keeping an eye on current levels...may be a push to 960
Fear's for the other guy
  • #12,820
  • May 18, 2009 4:40am May 18, 2009 4:40am
looks like some JPY weakness after Moody's downgrade today

USD is showing some strenght but only EUR and JPY seem suffering on this European session

resistances at 95,8 and 96,20 should contain the bounce today
A new pullback at 95,30/50 is again a chance for longs?
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