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Spud's Predictive MTF Stochastics

  • #1,501
  • Apr 18, 2009 10:01am Apr 18, 2009 10:01am
hi,

Any one here still using Spud's original Escalator set-up? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=36574

I'm starting to look into it again. So if you have any statistic over a longer time period I would appreciate it.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,502
  • Apr 23, 2009 11:35am Apr 23, 2009 11:35am
Have posted at my journal a first impression of a Escalator to PIPs subversion. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=144270


StartDate: 04/17/2009 EndDate: 04/23/2009


TOTAL ACCOUNT REPORT: START Balance:100000 --> END Balance: 106875.04

Trades: 35
Profit: 31 | Loss: 4
WIN/LOSS Percentage: WIN: 88.5714285714 | LOSS 11.4285714286
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,503
  • Apr 24, 2009 4:03am Apr 24, 2009 4:03am
Good to see you around Merlyn

How are things going ?
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,504
  • Apr 24, 2009 4:42am Apr 24, 2009 4:42am
Quoting M_j
Good to see you around Merlyn

How are things going ?
Hello M_J,

Glad to see that your perseverance is paying off, your latest results look impressive.

I'm still looking after my mother, in hospital at the moment, so I'm still demo trading as I never know what I might be doing from one minute to the next.

I'm currently experimenting with EUR/JPY which has an excellent daily range with a 4 pip spread. When Spud started the MTF threads we were trading GBP/JPY but once he started looking at M5 entries the 7-9 pip spread became too risky so EUR/USD was used instead. I see EUR/JPY as a reasonable compromise and look for M15 set-ups which I enter on an M5 confirmation. I also only enter if EUR/USD and USD/JPY are in the same direction, less trades but more likelihood of success.

Once I finalise my experimenting and have some meaningful stats I'll post my thoughts in detail.

Keep up the good work
TTFN Merlyn
  • #1,505
  • Apr 24, 2009 5:05am Apr 24, 2009 5:05am
hi Merlyn,

great respect for you: caring for your mom - wish both of you all the best.


I always thought that Spud used only 1 pair because it made enough and was easier to manual trade.

But the good thing seems to be: that it works across pairs - I use now 26 pairs. Not long enough though - to say that each pair produces the same result: (so I might get rid of some when I have longer results.).

The other thought is: if it would not produce MORE profit - just trading the 10 or 5 cheapest pairs with a higher Unit Size per trade. Could be ?

So I still leave such adjustments open: at the moment my 26 pairs with quite heavy rules seem to produces 1-5 trades a week. Which is so far fine.


Will be still interesting how I get the 'new' tests based on the EscalatorToPIPs running. might take again a few month to find a good middle ground.

ANY WAY: ALL THE BEST TO YOU and your mom !!
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,506
  • Apr 24, 2009 5:23am Apr 24, 2009 5:23am
HI MJ,

You're really doing a great job.
This shows that by persevering on a target give good fruit.
Your results seem very encouraging, especially concerning the risk/reward ratio.

I will keep an eye on your work.

.

Good bless.

Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,507
  • Apr 24, 2009 5:49am Apr 24, 2009 5:49am
Quoting M_j
hi Merlyn,

great respect for you: caring for your mom - wish both of you all the best.


I always thought that Spud used only 1 pair because it made enough and was easier to manual trade.
Hello M_J,

Thanks for your good wishes.

Yes, you are correct about trading one pair only, which is why the switch was made from G/J to E/U, it was too easy for newbies who lacked discipline and/or patience to loose with a 7-9 pip spread on a very volatile pair like G/J, far safer, if slower, trading using E/U.
TTFN Merlyn
  • #1,508
  • Edited 7:04am Apr 24, 2009 6:48am | Edited 7:04am
Quoting LuboLabo
HI MJ,
..
This shows that by persevering on a target give good fruit.
Your results seem very encouraging, especially concerning the risk/reward ratio.

..
Lubo.
Thanks.

there are a couple of thoughts I want to share related to what you said.

1. persevering: YES I believe too many traders switch too fast their ideas.

On the other hand Spud's MTF stochs had some special things I liked:

a. Spud presented it in a very good way.

b. Putting all related ideas together: there were enough parameters around to play with - and still having a basic common idea.

c. It was not a fixed rule set ' but an idea to play with' as one can see in the many different presentations of Spud himself.

d. early test showed that maybe it could really work out


---------------

This are some of the 'things' I found attractive and which took me captivated to persevere.

---------------


e. Because of that I did very intensive programming: and you know -- if one invests more time (or other resources) into something - it is also more likely that one will not so easily give up.


f. it is also the first trading bot which is solemnly based on price action and TA


g. and because of the complexity it has become the most advanced (in a technical programming way not necessarily in return) trading bot I did so far

---------------

So, kind of developed a special 'love' for this piece of program: which also helped to persevere.

---------------

2. RISK/REWARD RATION: Depending?

Win/Loss ration is ok - but that can also deceive in some cases: One might get a 99% Win and 1 % Loss ration but still be a looser depending on the used Unit Size and TP and SL settings.

e.g 99 x 1 Unit 1 PIP TP - 1 x 200 Units 200 SL


RISK/REWARD: In my opinion it is simply like that: an account MUST be able to make in a reasonable time a new HIGH (I would hope at least once a month - but if the strategy has less trades maybe at least once in 2 month).

So, if a draw-down is so much that by the giving strategy (in average) I can not achieve such New High - it is doomed to fail. I'm not going to wait 3 years until I get a new High.



So, MoneyManagment is also an important part to fit a strategy.

For instance for Spud's MTF stochs I used first only a simple MM - later I applied some of my usual fixed programed and good MM.
But in the end I did change that: as for this strategy it seemed to be a bit contra-productive.

Why: because there are still some: JUST WRONG signals - which I can not filter away. And sometimes these would get very high Units Size assigned to.

In the light of a relatively good Win/Loss %: In using a more simple different MM I could improve the return.



I think this is important:
RISK/REWARD: an account MUST be able to make in a REASONABLE time a new HIGH: And you are right.

probably I could increase the trading size and squeezes out quite a bit more: on my live account I aim at the moment for 30 % per year with Spud's MTF. (but I can imaging it up to 200 % per year if it runs well and some MM adjustments accordingly).

But for the first year one does not have to push it to the limit: so 20% with reasonable DrawDown till end of December is OK for me
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,509
  • May 2, 2009 10:58pm May 2, 2009 10:58pm
Hi all,

I have been reading Spud's thread with avid interest and I have a question that I hope someone can answer.

Apologies in advance for asking a question about an old post in this thread but this post really has me puzzled.

The post is "The Balls"...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=206

In particular, this part of the post in which Spud says...

"So why do I expect the red ball to fall. Because M15 and M30 (blue and purple balls) can't build H1 downwards where they are. The M15 and M30 balls have to go up first. They may only go up 20%..they may go up 80%..we don't know. What we do know is that for M15 and M30 to rise, M5 has to fall down to get a long trigger (best) or at least go down far enough to raise M15 and M30."

What I don't get is that "for M15 and M30 to rise M5 has to fall down to get a long trigger (best) or at least go down far enough to raise M15 and M30.

If say the red ball bounced around for say a dozen bars above say the 70% level then wouldn't you also expect to see M15 and M30 rise?

I am having trouble getting my head around the statement that for M15 and M30 to rise then M5 must fall. Intuitively I would expect that for M15 and M30 to rise then M5 must rise also?

I have a feeling that I am missing something very simple here but I cannot for the life of me figure out what it is.

Thanks in advance.

Laurence.
  • #1,510
  • May 4, 2009 3:22am May 4, 2009 3:22am
Hi lhookway,

just first: I'm no expert in stochs - and I did not focus at all on the Ball presentation (kinda skipped it .

But I can share how I think:


Quoting lhookway
Intuitively I would expect that for M15 and M30 to rise then M5 must rise also?
I think that is the clue.

How can M5 rise (when it is on the top ?)

it first must go down (at least a little bit), doesn't it.

But it can be observed that smaller time frames make much more often total circles than higher time frames stochs. So, it can be expected that the smaller time frame might make a number of up, down circles before the higher make one.

Well, as I say no expert on Ball's - but maybe it helps to get a other persons thoughts.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,511
  • May 13, 2009 11:27am May 13, 2009 11:27am
  •  z8_fx
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Inquire of the Old, Learn the New | 5 Posts
hello guys... no one updating this system anymore? actually i've been reading this thread for quite some times... i would love to thank Spud (i know it is very very very late ) and i also would like to LuboLabo for his indicator and i'm working to enhance it further... i just would like to clarify here all the stoch used here are closed candle or active one? really appreciate if someone (would be very glad if Spud himself) could clarify this. below is how da indi i'm working on and i'm open to any suggestion.

the upper one used active candle and the lower one used closed candle... the % are basically the % of green bar over all bars (dont know if this is useful or not) but my short observation (for the active candle) seems like when the % of Short is much higher compared to the % of Long, it is a Short signal .

p/s: This my very first indi as i am very new in this field (just started with live account last april )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: z8spudentryguide.gif Size: 27 KB
-=[Candles Exhaust Themselves to Give Light to Men]=-
  • #1,512
  • May 13, 2009 2:14pm May 13, 2009 2:14pm
Quoting z8_fx
hello guys... no one updating this system anymore? ... i just would like to clarify here all the stoch used here are closed candle or active one? really appreciate if someone (would be very glad if Spud himself) could clarify this. below is how da indi i'm working on and i'm open to any suggestion.

(just started with live account last april )

hi z8_fx,

Good hearing you did go live - MUCH SUCCESS to you.

I personally think that there are no such fixed rules in Spud's overall presentation.

It is also a while ago that I read the thread: But what I remember was this: Spud used CLOSED candles for stochs.

I think the only exception was when trading the rope (but one would have to go through all of the posts again.

At least that is how I have it in mind.

Personally I use only closed candles.
But as I'm fully automatized I do it so that I check the stochs very closely when a candle closes - so I'm always right on the spot.

~~~~~~~~

Would be nice if you start your own journal with some statistics: I'm always interested in such myself.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,513
  • Edited 7:11am May 14, 2009 4:34am | Edited 7:11am
  •  z8_fx
  • | Joined May 2009 | Status: Inquire of the Old, Learn the New | 5 Posts
whoa thanks for the wish MJ!, really appreciate... i'm so glad u did reply my post as i didnt put much hope someone would reply

i'm also planning to code an EA using Spud rules using the Risk% where open position when risk is below 60% in M5 and go to the next TF if risk is 0% or exit if risk >=60%...

i am very new to this and i also hv a day job so it took me quite some times to finish what i'm doing...

as said by u, starting now i'll use the closed candle and will work on this very soon...

as for live trading, i'm still in very slow mode as i'm concentrating to blend in this system and once i hv enough confident, i'll post my trade

btw, i read your journal n you coded in 23,000 lines? WOW!! speechless on that... err... did u share somewhere your codes as i'll try to refer. i believe programmers can read the lines even not so familiar with da language the other programmer use hope to hear from u soon...

p/s: Spud!! Where are you?? i missed da chance b4 when u r around
-=[Candles Exhaust Themselves to Give Light to Men]=-
  • #1,514
  • May 14, 2009 4:46am May 14, 2009 4:46am
I'm glad to see that someone elaborates my indicators idea...

Lubo.
If I know how, I tell You!! Few but Good!!
  • #1,515
  • May 14, 2009 6:56am May 14, 2009 6:56am
z8_fx,
M_j, Lubo

Looks great your indicator, it will greatly facilitate the job! I used Spud's method but could not stick to it enough because I can't stand on my charts all the day long. I would propose to all the people using only STOS to add a filter like ADX in order to stay in the trade as far as the trend is the right direction (and trending, rather than ranging). STOS might give bad signals, except if you completely follow the escalator theory, which I never had the time / courage to follow...

What do you think about it ?

Regis (from Belgium !)
Candles and Stos are telling the truth
  • #1,516
  • Edited 9:49am May 14, 2009 9:25am | Edited 9:49am
Quoting z8_fx
whoa thanks for the wish MJ!, really appreciate... i'm so glad u did reply my post as i didnt put much hope someone would reply

i'm also planning to code an EA using Spud rules using the Risk% where open position when risk is below 60% in M5 and go to the next TF if risk is 0% or exit if risk >=60%...

i am very new to this and i also hv a day job so it took me quite some times to finish what i'm doing...

as said by u, starting now i'll use the closed candle and will work on this very soon...

as for live trading, i'm still in very...
hi z8_fx

* ABOUT the code: I must disappoint you.

I'm NOT planing to share my code.


the journal is only here to give people like myself (and probably yourself):
a documented transparent history of trading based on what Spud shared.



Quoting z8_fx
i'm also planning to code an EA using Spud rules using the Risk% where open position when risk is below 60% in M5 and go to the next TF if risk is 0% or exit if risk >=60%...
hi, you can read some ideas about that from me: somewhere back in this thread.

I had that implemented at one point: actually a quite advanced version: But I could not see the real advantage of it (even though I understand it theoretical). I think it might be useful to consider in manual trading though (but not in a strict sense).

Anyway - maybe you will be more convinced of it's advantage then I was.






* LIVE trading: I also would take much care, go slowly in the beginning - so that if you get hit - you have realistic chances to recover.I personally have made in the last 3 1/2 weeks about 2 % - but no loosing trade. (if I had known that I would have made much more and played a 100% leverage).

But I prefer to take it slowly in the beginning: I still aim till end of the year about 20 % total. (personally I think I will make quite a bit more in the end)
Than for next year - I might change a number of things: maybe remove some of the pairs which did not turn out to well - and also with MoneyManagement aiming to about 80 - 150 %

Well, that's about the plan - one has to see how it works out in reality. (but so far I'm in good cheer that it's possible)
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,517
  • Edited 9:52am May 14, 2009 9:38am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting regis2000
z8_fx,
M_j, Lubo

Looks great your indicator, it will greatly facilitate the job! I used Spud's method but could not stick to it enough because I can't stand on my charts all the day long. I would propose to all the people using only STOS to add a filter like ADX in order to stay in the trade as far as the trend is the right direction (and trending, rather than ranging). STOS might give bad signals, except if you completely follow the escalator theory, which I never had the time / courage to follow...

What do you think about it ?

Regis (from...
My thoughts are like that:

Quoting regis2000
1. STOS might give bad signals, except if you completely follow the escalator theory
I think that this may give the wrong impression: that escalator does not give bad signals.

So, I think one would have to say: Stochastic (like any other indicator) may give at times wrong signals: My experience is: There are at time JUST PLAIN WRONG. I could filter much out in one of systems which I use live: But from time to time there are still some of this total wrong signals.
Until now I could not find any useful ways to get rid of such remaining: and make the trading still worthwhile.

Quoting regis2000
2. I would propose to all the people using only STOS to add a filter like ADX in order to stay in the trade as far as the trend is the right direction (and trending, rather than ranging).
I think it depends a lot of how one uses the stochs.
Also if the trading is manual or automatized.

In my case: I do not use any other indicators for now: Only stochs and price-actions: I use TP and SL on each trade and never change them after a trade is executed.

I may change this in my new testing based more on a EscalatorToPips version. But I think, if I would change my fixed SL I would opt for a dynamic trailing SL .

Anyway for this new testing it is much to early to say anything - most of it is still negative.
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,518
  • May 15, 2009 7:39am May 15, 2009 7:39am
Quoting regis2000
z8_fx,
M_j, Lubo

Looks great your indicator, it will greatly facilitate the job! I used Spud's method but could not stick to it enough because I can't stand on my charts all the day long. I would propose to all the people using only STOS to add a filter like ADX in order to stay in the trade as far as the trend is the right direction (and trending, rather than ranging). STOS might give bad signals, except if you completely follow the escalator theory, which I never had the time / courage to follow...

What do you think about it ?

Regis (from...
Hi Regis,

I do agree that this system need some additional filters. Given that I'm quite new to Forex and never used ADX as a filter, Could you please explain how it should be used in terms of additional rules or leave a link of where it's well explained?

Thanks,

PipPicker
  • #1,519
  • Edited 7:58am May 15, 2009 7:45am | Edited 7:58am
Just some STATISTICS of my current new test accounts based on EscalatorToPips for this week (note there are still open trades)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ACCOUNT 1:
TOTAL ACCOUNT REPORT: START Balance:100000 END Balance: 101076.94

Trades: 10
Profit: 9 | Loss: 1
WIN/LOSS Percentage: WIN: 90.0 | LOSS 10.0

LAST WEEK: END Balance: 98214.47
Trades: 20
Profit: 16 | Loss: 4
WIN/LOSS Percentage: WIN: 80.0 | LOSS 20.0

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ACCOUNT 2:
TOTAL ACCOUNT REPORT: START Balance:100000 END Balance: 96531.21

Trades: 39
Profit: 30 | Loss: 9
WIN/LOSS Percentage: WIN: 76.9230769231 | LOSS 23.0769230769

LAST WEEK: END Balance: 95054.89
Trades: 75
Profit: 59 | Loss: 16
WIN/LOSS Percentage: WIN: 78.6666666667 | LOSS 21.3333333333


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ACCOUNT 3:
TOTAL ACCOUNT REPORT: START Balance:100000 END Balance: 99281.42

Trades: 13
Profit: 10 | Loss: 3
WIN/LOSS Percentage: WIN: 76.9230769231 | LOSS 23.0769230769

* This one is quite interesting in relation to account 2: uses a stricter rule set - that's way I get less trades: But did produce actually the same result (WIN/LOSS RATION -- blows the account just slower

But last week it did better.


LAST WEEK: END Balance: 101415.52
Trades: 24
Profit: 20 | Loss: 4
WIN/LOSS Percentage: WIN: 83.3333333333 | LOSS 16.6666666667

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ACCOUNT 4:

TOTAL ACCOUNT REPORT: START Balance:100000 END Balance: -236104.37

Trades: 57
Profit: 43 | Loss: 14
WIN/LOSS Percentage: WIN: 75.4385964912 | LOSS 24.5614035088

NOTE: the balance is wrong: there was a very bad spike so I don't know how much minus it would have been.

LAST WEEK: END Balance: 84400.10
Trades: 86
Profit: 63 | Loss: 23
WIN/LOSS Percentage: WIN: 73.2558139535 | LOSS 26.7441860465
__Thanks__ MJ
  • #1,520
  • May 16, 2009 4:49am May 16, 2009 4:49am
ANy one interested: I did post my last month transaction from my working system: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=173
__Thanks__ MJ
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