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  • #95,701
  • May 13, 2009 9:48am May 13, 2009 9:48am
Quoting gatorinla
i detect slipage..a big friggen bubble..the king has no clothes..
You are right, it did take the stocks down. Better should have kept my mouth shut. I made some pips scalping long EU on this one.
  • #95,702
  • May 13, 2009 9:50am May 13, 2009 9:50am
any one have idea posible if price will touch again today 1365
  • #95,703
  • May 13, 2009 9:50am May 13, 2009 9:50am
Quoting gatorinla
i detect slipage..a big friggen bubble..the king has no clothes..
It is simple Gator.

1. When some certainty in the market: Apply second law of motion
2. When thing uncertain: Apply third law of motion

Imho, it is time to apply the third law, with caution.

I am again short, basically scalping in both directions now.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #95,704
  • May 13, 2009 9:50am May 13, 2009 9:50am
Markets are currently stable, as participant wait for fresh news or data. Overnight, a report from the Financial Times weighed on the USD. The FT ran an opinion piece by David Walker, the former comptroller general of the US , suggesting that the US needs to take immediate action to steer clear of a downgrade in its AAA rating (re-hashing the long-term critique of US public finances). It’s important to mention that a downgrade of US sovereign debt will lead to downgrade in sovereign elsewhere, due to the fact the US is a global benchmark. In addition, the USD selling was compounded by a comment from a Japanese opposition party leader that stated that the MoF would transition to holding non USD denominated US government debt. The knee jerk reaction in the FX market lead to new highs in the EURUSD and AUDUSD. The EURUSD traded up to 1.3722, while the AUDUSD has traded up to 0.7705.The markets are still debating the merits of the recent bright spots in economic data. Heavy weights such as former Fed Chairman Greenspan are now arguing that the US and global economy have in fact turned the corner. Recent positive surprises in economic data have given this theory significant traction, including today massive's jump in Chinese retail sales (April 14.5% y/y). It seems clear that just the expectations of a recovery (regardless of the exact timing) are pushing investors towards risk taking and causing USD selling. Movement of capital back into EM (Asian EM looks specifically good due to rising reserves) , renewed correlation of oil prices and short term interest rate differentials should continue to create a negative USD environment. Released today, the BoE Inflation Report showed inflation at 1.2% two years out, assuming market rate and GBP125 bn worth of QE. While In the EU March’s decline in industrial production confirms that the recession deepened in the first Q. The 2.0% m/m decline in output was below the consensus forecast but expectations were revised down following the weaker country data released this week. Today markets will be focused on US retail sales. The FX market reaction will be dominated by the figures effect on recovery and risk appetite. We believe the data will have to significantly deviate (on the downside) to trample the recently sprouted “green shoot “theory. And most likely even the slightly optimistic read will cause broad based USD weakness.
EurUsd Constructive under immediate resistance (Piercing line on daily chart) at 1.3669 (Yesterday’s high), consolidation subsides as we head higher, we continue to aim for 1.3740 area, a break past this level would set our sights on 1.3971 within the week. The bias really is for the upside here as the retracement only managed a 38.20% counter. On the downside 1.3557 serves as initial support but real test for bearish bias comes at 1.3507.
Resistance and Support:
EURUSD
1.3741
1.3658
1.3557
1.3507
1.3469

Have a nice Trading !

  • #95,705
  • May 13, 2009 9:53am May 13, 2009 9:53am
Quoting Chicky
It is simple Gator.

1. When some certainty in the market: Apply second law of motion
2. When thing uncertain: Apply third law of motion

Imho, it is time to apply the third law, with caution.

I am again short, basically scalping in both directions now.

Which indicator do you use to measure uncertainty?
  • #95,706
  • May 13, 2009 9:54am May 13, 2009 9:54am
Quoting TheFisherman
You are right, it did take the stocks down. Better should have kept my mouth shut. I made some pips scalping long EU on this one.
oil has gone down since report was released. current +.31
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,707
  • May 13, 2009 9:57am May 13, 2009 9:57am
Quoting Hasnaa
[i][font=Times New Roman][size=4][color=purple]Markets are currently stable, as participant wait for fresh news or data. Overnight, a report from the Financial Times weighed on the USD. The FT ran an opinion piece by David Walker, the former comptroller general of the US , suggesting that the US needs to take immediate action to steer clear of a downgrade in its AAA rating (re-hashing the long-term critique of US public finances). It’s important to mention that a downgrade of US sovereign debt will lead to downgrade in sovereign elsewhere, due to...

your own words?
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #95,708
  • Edited 9:59am May 13, 2009 9:58am | Edited 9:59am
Quoting notch
Which indicator do you use to measure uncertainty?
1. Feel good indicator (economic condtions)
2. Feel not so good indicator (economic conditions)

These are as reliable as any other bs indicators.

I look at 50% fibs on daily (40-60% range) and 100% fibs on hourly (75-100% range). Plus fib timings to judge angle of trend. These are more than enough for me.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #95,709
  • May 13, 2009 10:03am May 13, 2009 10:03am
Quoting Chicky
It is simple Gator.

1. When some certainty in the market: Apply second law of motion
2. When thing uncertain: Apply third law of motion

Imho, it is time to apply the third law, with caution.

I am again short, basically scalping in both directions now.
it never passed the smell test. i was shutting the puck up and trading chart... emploment going down. how can things be getting better.. what happen in the u.s. affects the rest of the world later. i tend not to take anything said in china with a grain of salt.. bad news i amplify, good news i subtract from... if we aint working we aint buying..

i think its all bs... just like last year when oil was 147 a barrel and the u.s. gov. was still buying 1% of the oil.. thus creating a shortage proping up the price..when there were tankers all over the world full and parked.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,710
  • May 13, 2009 10:03am May 13, 2009 10:03am
long 1.3602
sl 1.3550
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #95,711
  • May 13, 2009 10:10am May 13, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Hasnaa
Overnight, a report from the Financial Times weighed on the USD.


Yeah, right. The article was published at 20 pm UK time. Hence, it is not headline news, hence, no one gives a monkey. Some guy, who once worked for US government... So what? Do you seriously think the market is going to react to this?
  • #95,712
  • Edited 10:13am May 13, 2009 10:12am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting gatorinla
it never passed the smell test. i was shutting the puck up and trading chart... emploment going down. how can things be getting better.. what happen in the u.s. affects the rest of the world later. i tend not to take anything said in china with a grain of salt.. bad news i amplify, good news i subtract from... if we aint working we aint buying..

i think its all bs... just like last year when oil was 147 a barrel and the u.s. gov. was still buying 1% of the oil.. thus creating a shortage proping up the price..when there were tankers all over the...
That oil thing was once a blue moon olympic opportunity for some. A race before olympics even started. Supplies withheld at ports. Media yelling at people to buy before it goes to $200 etc, etc.

As expressed thoughts earlier, this equity drive is not backed up by equally strong factors. It may go up in longer term, but will be a bumpy ride. It never went backt to touch 1.5xx again, a gap never filled - Aug 7 and 8, 2008. Not very common. It was because of house mortgage bubble. Do we have factors strong enough to overcome what that crisis created. Even if Yes, what about investors' confidence? Then how it will cross 1.5xx in near future? These are just few thoughts.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #95,713
  • May 13, 2009 10:13am May 13, 2009 10:13am
Quoting Chicky
1. Feel good indicator (economic condtions)
2. Feel not so good indicator (economic conditions)

These are as reliable as any other bs indicators.

I look at 50% fibs on daily (40-60% range) and 100% fibs on hourly (75-100% range). Plus fib timings to judge angle of trend. These are more than enough for me.

Thanks.


That was an unexpected EURUSD jump.
  • #95,714
  • May 13, 2009 10:18am May 13, 2009 10:18am
Hands up all happy traders. Now go to the beach, golf course, sauna, playstation, knitting, mud wrestling or whatever you do to relax. Or just keep trading, but be careful of overconfidence. Not so happy traders, look to 1.3638 to 1.3650 for a short opportunity all the way to double bottom
  • #95,715
  • May 13, 2009 10:19am May 13, 2009 10:19am
Quoting Hasnaa
[i][font=Times New Roman][size=4][color=purple]Markets are currently stable, as participant wait for fresh news or data. Overnight, a report from the Financial Times weighed on the USD. The FT ran an opinion piece by David Walker, the former comptroller general of the US , suggesting that the US needs to take immediate action to steer clear of a downgrade in its AAA rating (re-hashing the long-term critique of US public finances). It’s important to mention that a downgrade of US sovereign debt will lead to downgrade in sovereign elsewhere, due to...
counter aurgument... china was restocking at cheaper commodity prices...eventually they will be stock piled with nobody to buy products until u.s. employment improves.. put this against anything you said such as aud/usd ect.. we have global constipation until u.s. jobs get better....if u.s. employment improves before china stops buying commodities then it will work out.. if not....????????
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #95,716
  • May 13, 2009 10:23am May 13, 2009 10:23am
Quoting plan-b
long 1.3602
sl 1.3550
out +25
Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #95,717
  • May 13, 2009 10:24am May 13, 2009 10:24am
where is ur target to what price will arrive
  • #95,718
  • May 13, 2009 10:36am May 13, 2009 10:36am
Quoting Elghoz
where is ur target to what price will arrive
there is a fib of the fall from 1.3716 at around 1.3630
thats why i decided to get off my long from 1.3602 at that point
im not a fun of scalping but in markets such as this you could pick up loose pips
today up +164 but half of that was from a single gu short entered at 1.53 with a tight stop in anticipation of bad news from boe..
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Some drink at the fountain of knowledge. Others just gargle !
  • #95,719
  • May 13, 2009 10:41am May 13, 2009 10:41am
Quoting Chicky
Please don't bother yourself. Boredtolose has been blessed with 4 brains. Left, Right, Up and Down. We will never be able to catch him. Just ask him Up or Down. He will tell you. We cannot decide up or down, because we do not have this mental capability.
Oh man
  • #95,720
  • May 13, 2009 10:43am May 13, 2009 10:43am
The upwards move was expected fellas. Price bounced off the bottom pivot point and now heading to the next pivot point.
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