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  • #2,841
  • May 11, 2009 9:42am May 11, 2009 9:42am
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This is my summary of Patrick25's, Strat's and Blackeagles contributions to the USDCAD situation. I have done this for my own pratice in drawing TLs and chart reading. I hope you more experienced chaps don't mind me floating this to see if it's correct. How else am I to learn??

Big Boss down for the last three months.
Boss down for the last nine months except for a bond hammer on 22nd March.
Daily down approx to 38.2 Fib drawn from the major SL on7/11/07 with a BE (almost, short of 1 pip) EB on Friday last, 8/05 which was also support in Oct and Nov 2008. Price well below 20 and 50 MAs and Boss MAs (just broken through Boss 250)

Currently up today but still a way to go before closing the candle.

Looking for PA around the support of 1.15010 (38.2 Fib). If support is broken take trade with SL 1 pip above today’s candle with first TP of 1.11107, 2nd TP at 1.08910 (ish) at the extension of the long-term trend line from 6th Nov 2007. If that is broken then further falls to approx 1.02710 which has confluence with the 61.8 Fib.

I can’t assess the risk and therefore the trade size at the moment until candle closes tonight. But I would reduce trade size to take 1.% risk – if that was possible on my account size. If not I would not trade.
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  • #2,842
  • May 11, 2009 12:37pm May 11, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Attachment

This is my summary of Patrick25's, Strat's and Blackeagles contributions to the USDCAD situation. I have done this for my own pratice in drawing TLs and chart reading. I hope you more experienced chaps don't mind me floating this to see if it's correct. How else am I to learn??

Big Boss down for the last three months.
Boss down for the last nine months except for a bond hammer on 22nd March.
Daily down approx to 38.2 Fib drawn from the major SL on7/11/07 with a BE (almost, short of 1 pip) EB on Friday last, 8/05 which...
Hi Lotuselanman,

I am still learning but let take this one further. I think it is much better looking for PA @ 1.1850 if you want to go short. Like the chart I posted, we have a trend and 61.8% from the last leg up right below 1.1400.
I would wait to see PA @ 1.1850 and 1.1400. Like Baba G said trade the pairs and remember the numbers. I started to remember some of the numbers of the pairs now.
  • #2,843
  • May 11, 2009 2:53pm May 11, 2009 2:53pm
So you think I should wait for the retrace back to the last level of SR (mainly S)? That would indeed give a short of many pips.

You proposal of waiting for the full retrace would certainly emphasise the SR part of PASR.

You have also drawn your trend line differently from me - which is fair enough. It's a subjective business isn't it!

I realise that you suggested this wait in your post but I am trying to work it out for myself, so that I am completely on top of it.

I am definitely at the demo stage so the trade is hypothetical but I am trying to take it completely seriously as if I had LOTS of dosh riding on it!

Thanks for your response. It is very helpful.
  • #2,844
  • May 11, 2009 2:55pm May 11, 2009 2:55pm
I know Baba won't like this hammer (floater) but the reaction of price today to the upward TL is adding to my confidence in it and is actually telling me/showing me more than the bar itself.

TP1/BE would be at 1.71340 (first resistance). I know this isn't a long term trade because of the obvious resistance at 1.75, but it may be an 'ATM' trade as Strat says...

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  • #2,845
  • May 11, 2009 3:12pm May 11, 2009 3:12pm
hello dan...its the weekly south pin that is a thorn in my eye on this with the 2 week pin south a bit before that........not an ATM candidate for me.......and its got to close at the open at least.....but that dont get the thorn out my eye
  • #2,846
  • May 11, 2009 3:19pm May 11, 2009 3:19pm
Quoting Baba G
hello dan...its the weekly south pin that is a thorn in my eye on this with the 2 week pin south a bit before that........not an ATM candidate for me.......
Evenin' G.

Yeah i did see them but their locations just seem to be 'in traffic' if that makes sense so i wasn't treating them as classic SS.

Price also seems to be drawn to the 61 Fib from December's IB like a magnet...
  • #2,847
  • May 11, 2009 3:20pm May 11, 2009 3:20pm
shame about the weekly as the daily looks good...if that closes at the open that is....but there might be 30 pips in it......oops i said "might"

of course we can do something else.....can u guess what im thinking......i just ran it by elitejets on skype she thought it was a good idea....
  • #2,848
  • May 11, 2009 3:23pm May 11, 2009 3:23pm
Quoting Baba G
shame about the weekly as the daily looks good...if that closes at the open that is....but there might be 30 pips in it......oops i said "might"

of course we can do something else.....can u guess what im thinking......i just ran it by elitejets on skype she thought it was a good idea....
I'm frightened to ask
  • #2,849
  • May 11, 2009 3:27pm May 11, 2009 3:27pm
Quoting AstonDan
Evenin' G.

Yeah i did see them but their locations just seem to be 'in traffic' if that makes sense so i wasn't treating them as classic SS.

Price also seems to be drawn to the 61 Fib from December's IB like a magnet...
yes but all that traffic is southbound...against a daily pin...which i cant see closing as i would like to see....
  • #2,850
  • May 11, 2009 3:33pm May 11, 2009 3:33pm
Quoting AstonDan
I'm frightened to ask
LOL.....well sometimes we are helped by what is not to see what is.....

Even if that pin closes right...we can let it go and use the info later...ie:

if it engages and rocks at this level that means something...if it fails it means something if it sidways we get more price bars.......

Just cause we aint had many bars to play dont mean we have to take all of them.......if you have a doubt.....and i do cause of the weekly situation just wait for more bars......

everythings gonna be ok.........what do you think?
  • #2,851
  • May 11, 2009 3:38pm May 11, 2009 3:38pm
Quoting Baba G

everythings gonna be ok.........what do you think?
I think you're a guru

Whole market looks 'skew' to me tonight and i can't make much sense of any of it...a lot of big OBs counter trend and the commodity pairs have suffered a bit today which i didn't expect...

I'm putting my guns away tonight.

Cheers for the clarity G.
  • #2,852
  • May 11, 2009 3:39pm May 11, 2009 3:39pm
hope im not being aggresive
  • #2,853
  • May 11, 2009 3:49pm May 11, 2009 3:49pm
Hey Dan, I was looking at that gbpchf hammer too - the reason to be fearful is the crappy RR ratio in my view.
Also, I have used an indicator, not sure if it's allowed by Strat but I have found it very useful for spotting hammers and stars that work - it's an MA based tool set to 2 standard deviations. As it's an indicator related to PA and not in a separate window, I often use it....

See if you can have a guess as to what it may be - no pointers as Strat will know what I'm on about (Is it allowed Strat?) and if he wishes it to remain in the dark then so be it - he'll set 0A on to me otherwise!!!

BTW nzdusd is shaping up on my feed (NorthFinance) to be an excellent S Star with SR and 38% Fib. Body within the previous candle with close lower than open...15 mins to bar end - eyes peeled!!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,854
  • May 11, 2009 3:57pm May 11, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting Grimweasel
See if you can have a guess as to what it may be - no pointers as Strat will know what I'm on about (Is it allowed Strat?) and if he wishes it to remain in the dark then so be it - he'll set 0A on to me otherwise!!!

BTW nzdusd is shaping up on my feed (NorthFinance) to be an excellent S Star with SR and 38% Fib. Body within the previous candle with close lower than open...15 mins to bar end - eyes peeled!!
Price boxed between 20 and 50?

I noticed the SS on NZDUSD as well and i do like it but the ascending TL plus the weekly and monthly bars are just putting me off.
  • #2,855
  • May 11, 2009 4:02pm May 11, 2009 4:02pm
Quoting Baba G
shame about the weekly as the daily looks good...if that closes at the open that is....but there might be 30 pips in it......oops i said "might"

of course we can do something else.....can u guess what im thinking......i just ran it by elitejets on skype she thought it was a good idea....
Are you trying to get me into trouble? ....

All these markets are consolidating. There is nothing jumping off the chart on the daily yelling trade me.
I think we have to wait for a better day and new trends please.
  • #2,856
  • May 11, 2009 4:05pm May 11, 2009 4:05pm
Dan
Yeah seen on the weekly; almost double hammer action. These are often retested and I have the level (and BE on those weekly hammers) at 5727 and the risk on daily as 128 pips to poss reward of 271 so RR of 2/1- may not fit some risk profiles as I know many have a min of 3/1 - whatever is in your plan Dan!!

I like the precipitous rise into that S Star and the rejection of the 38% Fib re-trace from H to L on the Big Boss.

The only issue could be the weekly 50sma just below. Could be a retest but could just smash thru it.

The daily sits outside of my secret friend too!!!
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,857
  • May 11, 2009 4:07pm May 11, 2009 4:07pm
Nic are you scared of Strat?...i am....

Grimweasel...hey man hows it going with you?

Kiwi.....big monthly thorn...like i said to Aston if it hold as a pin and fails...thats something ect ect

what do you think.....you gonna puller that trigger?
  • #2,858
  • Edited 4:56pm May 11, 2009 4:15pm | Edited 4:56pm
Hey BabaG!!

Not bad thanks man! Howz tings with u?? All well I hope?

Well, I have an order in as I'm comfortable with the potential loss of 130 pips. I would like to see a break of the monthly 20ema just below too.

Dow is looking toppy? Is that a DBHLC I see or does it not qualify because the 2nd Bar high is below the high of the previous bar??

If the TL goes on cadchf and the SR at 9491 that would be a good entry for the break of last weeks hammer too.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #2,859
  • May 11, 2009 4:50pm May 11, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting GregB
Hi Strat

Just wanted to add my thanks for your continued efforts in reiterating whats important in PASR. I've struggled with TLs in the past with them being very subjective to me. But in the future will put in more effort to try to draw them so that they "mean something to me".

Emphasizing and re-emphasizing these points is really helpful to all of us that are on "the path" and especially those of us that have just recently joined.

I am still plodding through the previous posts while keeping up with the new posts. Takes time for...
Hi Greg & all

Your post really resonated with me. It must be frustrating for Strat & the other certified trainers to have to keep repeating themsleves, but its really helpful to me trying to absorb it all (I'm a particularly slow learner & have a bad memory too!)

best to all
Paul
  • #2,860
  • May 11, 2009 5:41pm May 11, 2009 5:41pm
Quoting fountaintree
Hi Strat and other members of this thread!

I have done a quick perusal of the thread and is now about 25% through my second more thorough read and digestion. I considered myself fortunate at this stage of my trading career in forex in landing myself on this thread.

Just a quick background of myself followed by my stage in forex.
I am 28 yrs old working in Singapore as a CPA accountant for 5 yrs. I started trading equity since I guess (cant rem exactly) 12 yrs old through my parent name HAHA. I love my job until I work like maybe 18 hrs per...
Fountaintree, we will get you sorted out don't worry, but you have to play by our rules, right? So for you, Mr. nerd reader, it's back to the beginning of The Path of Learning and READ and UNDERSTAND each and every post before going to the next. Any questions, ask. You have already taken too many steps on the wrong path, so until we get you ship shape and bristol fashion, NO TRADING AT ALL - not even demo - got it?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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